Tag: Glorious American Revolution of 2021

The Fourth Turning Of 2025 & The Radical Moderates Of The Second American Civil War



by Ender

The thing about the first civil war was how it radicalized President Lincoln, who was, for the most part, pretty moderate. It is difficult for the average modern person to understand how radical abolition was when Lincoln embraced it as a war aim. If you want some sense of the lead up to the Emancipation Proclamation, the late William Safire wrote a huge tome of a historical novel called “Freedom” which is about that very thing.

Anyway, since Americans are the vast majority of the time extremely laid back on a macro political level — we’re not French, after all — only very rarely do you see moderates pick up the banner of radicalism. The most obvious time this happened was the Civil War Era, but, to a far lesser extent “radical moderates” also popped up around the Great Depression as well.

In fact, when it came to the First Civil War, it was these radical moderates who ultimately saved the Union. Only by embracing the radical war aim of freeing the slaves could the Union be saved.

And, now, the United States may be in a modern antebellum period. I only say “may” because a Second American Civil War is one of three options before us — autocracy, civil war or some sort of military junta that might lead to a Constitutional Convention.

The prime candidates to become Radical Moderates are all of the NeverTrumpers, a smattering of the Usual Suspect talking heads on CNN and MSNBC and maybe a few Hollywood celebrities with political ambitions. The key thing to remember is, however, once you slice the seal on a civil war, there’s no going back. Everything — and I mean everything — would be thrown up in the air. Strange alliances would be made. New heroes would arise. Historical figures that you could never imagine might spring into the public imagination.

But there’s one thing I have to make absolutely clear — no matter how much people like Jesse “Welcome To The New Right!” Kelly want to glorify the prospect of a civil war, it would suck. It would suck so bad that everyone involved, no matter who won, would live to regret it ever happened for the rest of their lives.

I say this for a number of pretty obvious reasons.

One, everything would grow existential. When things grow existential, it’s not where you went to school, or your race, or gender or if you’re a hipster in a coffee shop or a transgender person upset over the latest J.K Rowling attack. What would matter is how, you, as a person, could help the war effort. Starvation would be everywhere. Death. Despair. Tragedy. Hate. All these things would become a basic part of everyday life.

I believe this because if things got so bad that there was an actual Second American Civil War, WMD would be seized and used (a whole lot!) The lights would go out. Internet may be blocked or not available. You wouldn’t know anything because your access to any form of mass communication might be controlled or non-existent.

What’s once the United States buckled, the rest of the world would not be far behind. We’re talking WW3. Billions could die if not from a number of limited nuclear exchanges, then from the starvation that would result from the following Nuclear Winter.

All because Tucker Carlson convinced Baby Boomers that the Worst Thing That Could Happen To Them Is To Be “Canceled.”

Because of all of this, the aforementioned Radical Moderates would rise to the surface and probably be in control of the Blue States.

I find myself wondering how long a Second American Civil War might last. A lot would depend on the specifics of what caused it and the leadership the two sides had when it began. Or, even more importantly — what would be the two sides war aims?

The MAGA New Right would have some very clear war aims at the beginning — establish a White Christian Autocratic Ethno State — while Blues would probably have to gradually come up with them. And, as I have repeatedly said, a lot would depend on what California did. If it left the Union altogether, the Reds probably would win and consolidate power in the rump USA.

If, however, California stayed united with other Blue States, then we’re going to the show. California would be the Union’s Arsenal Of Democracy.

But, let me be clear –while I like to think the high-risk, high-reward of a Second American Civil War would lead ultimately to a stronger, more perfect Union just like the First Civil War, it might just suck. The United States could simply devolve into a number of rump states like the old Soviet Union.

It could be that after a number of years of chaos, that you would have something that looked like this: California, Texas and Florida would be their own nation-states. NYC might be a “free state.” Some sort of American Taliban might control huge swaths of the South.

Meanwhile, you would have a number of regional alliances that would exist with the goal of giving people some sense of security.

But all of that is extremely speculative. It could be that, in the end, we simply slip peacefully into autocracy and that’s that. Wealthy liberals leave the country for, I dunno, Perth and the cities of Europe and the remaining Americans slowly, but inevitably, circle the drain to “shit hole country” status.

Good luck. You — and the Radical Moderates — will need it.

‘A Tipping Point’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Holy Shit

The above is a tipping point for me. It proves to me that my dystopian hellscape for late 2024 – early 2025 is probably pretty close to being accurate. As such, the time for hysterics is over. The time for “hope” is over.

The era of preperation has begun.

Now, I absolutely hate violence — hell, conflict — of any sort. I don’t want to hurt anyone for any reason. But I’m a survivor. And, in my experience, the key to surviving a crisis is to recognize that one exists.

We’re in a crisis.

It’s kind of downlow right now because we’re an autocracy without an autocrat, but we’re careening towards a stunning political crisis at some point between now and January 2025.

Now, things won’t be exactly like 2020 because the person who would be certifying the vote would be a Democrat, Vice President Harris. But that’s pretty late in the game.

Republicans — I see you Roger Stone — are actively taking a shiv to local voting boards. And if they can’t corrupt the system there, they’ll do it at the state level and if they don’t succeed in fucking things up there, they’ll object again in Congress, hoping they can throw things in some way to the House and Senate.

The point is — the above memo is a smoking gun for me. Republicans really are out to destroy our liberal democracy and we all need to start acting accordingly. I don’t write for VOX, so, lulz, I have no idea what that means in real terms.

But I do know that anyone who starts telling me they “hope” this or that thing will save us has lost me. We’re dealing with macro trends that don’t have any easy answers like “vote” or “get involved.” When you’re dealing with an opposing political force that has come to glorify political violence and, worst of all, cheats, well, what can you really do?

I don’t know.

But you can’t do nothing. You have about four years to prepare. Use your time wisely.

MAGA New Right ‘Thought Leaders’ Are Such Fucking Morons — Even ‘Soyboys’ Got Spunk When Things Turn Existential


By Ender

I know that I sound hysterical. I know that seem to love peddling my own version of “fear porn” and “doom shit.” But we have to admit that no one is going to save us. There will be no “boom” that takes down the entire rotten, fetid Trumplandia edifice. (That this is a mirror image of MAGA Far Right discussions on Twitter about The Durham Report should tell you something.)

But one thing that is going on all around us is our politics has frozen up. We’ve reached a point in negative polarization where the two sides are absolutely opposed to anything the other side supports. As such, outside of a few highly educated NeverTrumper thinkers, there is no and will never be common cause against MAGA. There will never be a broad United Front formed to save our faltering democracy.

In short — we’re fucked.

And there are two, maybe three endgames to this. Either we slide peacefully into autocracy, a military junta takes over…or we have a civil war.

It’s this last option that MAGA New Right thought leaders become so giddy over. They keep saying that because “liberals won’t leave them alone,” they are going to have to turn to political violence. Their thinking is — liberal progressives are all soyboy milquetoasts who will be crush by their Alpha Male prowess.

This is such a fucking dumb thing to think.

I say this AGAIN because human nature is such that even a “sissy boy” is going to grow a lot more “alpha” if things grow existential. So, it seems to me the MAGA New Right cocksuckers who think Blue States will “collapse like a rotten door” will be in for a pretty rude awakening if things got so bad that we had a civil war.

But there is one thing to consider — WMD.

If we have a civil war, we’re probably going to bomb ourselves into oblivion.

Good luck!

Wargaming A Sept. 18 Capitol Catastrophe


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Do I really have to do this? Apparently, so, since I’ve gotten at least one ping from some rando in Texas who definitely seems interested in making my fears about Sept 18 come true. (I think they may have shared my recent post on the subject.)

Given that, let’s run the worse case scenario for what might happen this weekend.

There are a lot of known unknowns. One is, the amount of organization on the part of the protesters and their intent. Do they intend to do a replay of what happened on Jan 6th, or are they just angry and what to prove a point? The key issue is how organized they are and if they have it in them to storm the Capitol again.

A fence is being up around the Capitol, so if this weekend’s protesters freaked out, at least they would have to get past that. It could be that they just want to, in general, fuck shit up. That they don’t want something as grant as taking the Capitol, just cause problems.

So, a lot — A LOT — of problems would have to go wrong for the Capitol to be seized again. And, really, if they took the Capitol, the key issue would what they did with once they got it. If they take the Capitol again, they would need a security perimeter around the Capitol. And from what I can tell, they just don’t have the people to establish such a perimeter.

As such, I think while there may be violence this weekend, relative to what happened on Jan 6th, will be a dud.

I hope.

We’ve Crossed The Tyranny Event Horizon: Trump Holds America’s Fate In His Teeny-Tiny Hands


by Ender

At the moment, ding-dong Trump AGAIN holds the entire fate of the United States in his teeny-tiny hands. I say this because we face a far different future if someone else is the Republican nominee in 2024 than we do if it’s him. If its DeSantis or Cotton or Hawley or Pompeo, then we’re probably going to slip peacefully into some form of autocracy.

Good German Republicans will call people like me hysterical as we slowly — then not so slowly — begin to lose some rights that we’ve assumed we’d always have. Everything will come to a head when the argument of the day is if we’re going to have a MAGA-themed Constitutional Convention or not. It will be pitched to traditional American conservatives as the “only way” to pass a balanced budget amendment.

Then, lulz, fuck you, lib, it goes rouge and I definitely end up dead at the hands of a ICE agent.

But if Trump runs again, he is soooooo fucking stupid and incompetent that he could single handedly force the United States into a civil war. And it’s going to be Blue States who leave the Union. Remember, a lot — and I mean A LOT — of things would have to go wrong for us to get to that point.

The U.S. Military would have to sit back and let Blue States hold Secession Conventions. But, maybe they will.

Anyway, if it is Blue States who leave the Union (or try) and California stays with the Blue State Union then we’re probably going to bomb ourselves into oblivion using WMD.

I keep talking about this hysterical “doom shit” because Republicans are radicalized and so anti-democratic at this point that what else is going to happen? Why would anyone thing anything else is going to happen?

It seems as though the people who think I peddle political disaster porn either think the law is going to save us, or they tacitly agree with the coming autocracy we may face.

All I know, something’s gotta give. At some point the modern day Slave Power of MAGA either gets its way and establishes an white Christian ethno state, or there’s a civil war and (hopefully) its gaping wound gets cauterized.

Minority Report: Why I’m Wrong About A Coming Civil War or Autocracy In America


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I really was very hysterical — and wrong — about Trump. But there was something I could not have predicted about him, and that is how fucking lazy and stupid he is. I made a huge assumption, and that was the same assumption that the people who voted for him made: that he was the “You’re fired” guy and, as such, would bring autocracy to the United States.

Turns out, I was wrong.

He wasn’t the “You’re fired” guy — he was just a lazy, bonkers moron who was an avatar for the rot in the American political system.

These days, I’m ranting about how no later than January 2025, we’re going to either have a civil war or turn into an autocracy. This has led my far more conservative relatives to poo-poo this because, well, lulz, I was wrong once about a dystopian nightmare, I’m obviously going to be wrong again.

And I could very well be.

But there is one thing I will be shocked to see happen — the United States continue to be a Western democracy in the way we have been for 240 odd years. If that happens under Republican control, I will be totally, completely shocked. And that’s the rub — my conservative relatives won’t see the autocracy for what it is. They will just be happy that, at last, the liberals are owned for good and “cancel culture” has been outlawed.

It will be a struggle, pitched rhetorical battle, to get my conservative relatives to admit that the media has been purged and the only way a Democrat can become president is if their party controls Congress. My conservative relatives will lulz all of this — they agree with the autocracy, afterall — until it’s personal. THEN they’re going to freak out.

But, then, of course, it will be way, way, way too late. I’ll be proven right, but it won’t matter. I’ll be dead at the hand of an ICE agent because I fucking wouldn’t fucking shut up about President DeSantis (or Pompeo) being a sack of shit.

Or, who knows, may be my conservative relatives will continue their debate nullification technique of saying “no it won’t” whenever they don’t have a ready answer to my very well thought out talking point.

As for the civil war, I still think that’s going to be a matter of how deft the MAGA person in charge of our transition into autocracy is. If it’s Trump, we’re going to have a civil war. He’s just too stupid.

Anyway. Good luck.

China Would Make A Severe Strategic Mistake To Attack Taiwan In 2021


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Almost no one reads this blog. Like, no one. Maybe almost a 100 people on a good day. Otherwise, I’m just barking into the darkness. So, anything out of the ordinary catches my attention in this site’s Webstats.

Like, why are there people with French URLs who pop up out of the blue? Why are there people in Romania, of all places, who have started to read this blog? Is that one URL I think is a conservative relative who I think it is? And what was with that one person from Brooklyn who spent over an hour doing a deep dive into my rantings on this site? Should I be worried, or pleased with that one?

Anyway, another thing I’ve noticed is a teeny-tiny uptick in hits from China of all places. I think they’re people interested in my rantings about how we’re going to have a civil war at some point between now and January 2025?

Well, if that is the case, all I can say is — slow your roll.

Yes, the United States is as divided as it’s been since the Civil War, but that is going to change the moment there’s a major regional war. For the next four years, until we actually have that civil war (or turn into an autocracy) the United States will become a lot more united the moment we realize we have to gird our loins to save the world, AGAIN.

Around January 2025, however, all that could change.

It would be difficult for the United States to do anything about China — or the DPRK for that matter — if we’re too busy bombing ourselves into oblivion to do anything about it.

So, if you’re some sort of Chinese agent, reading this blog hoping to get a bead on the current American ability to defend Taiwan, that’s my advice.

What Could I Be Getting Wrong With All My ‘Hysterical Doom Shit’ About A Second American Civil War?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The conservatives in my family generally believe I’m being “hysterical” with all my “doom shit” about the prospect of a Second American Civil War in the near future. I think they read this blog and aren’t telling me, but, lulz.

Anyway, the argument I’ve gotten from my conservatives relatives is we have more to worry about from “woke” corporations listening to us using our phones and “canceling” us for not fitting the media narrative than my fear of autocracy or civil war. But these same relatives tell me that Trump isn’t going is going to run because he’s “just not,” so, I dunno.

So what am I missing? Am I just being “hysterical” with my “doom shit?”

There are a number of very concrete metrics that I can point to that indicate to me that I’m not being “hysterical” and we’re totally, completely fucked no later than Janaury 2025. We’re going to face the choice of autocracy or civil war at that point and I still don’t know the answer as to which one we’re going to do.

One of the many metrics that cause me a great deal of concern these days is how the MAGA New Right simply lies if there’s anything that doesn’t fit their own media narrative. They claim it’s a false flag. Or we didn’t see what we know we saw. Or whatever fuck else they can say to make themselves feel better.

It’s growing very aggravating.

But, who knows. We may just muddle through all of this. And I’ll look like a fool. It won’t be the first time.

Doom & ‘Boom:’ Twitter Liberals & The Violent Radicalization of The Republican Party


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m still smarting from the “Mueller, She Wrote” Twitter account blocking me after accusing me of peddling “doom shit.” It bothers me because I struggle to see how, at this point, how that is the case.

In fact, my counter-argument is, a Twitter account inspired by the foolish early-Trump Era belief that a life-long conservatives Republican was some sort of liberal savior of the Republic needs to do some introspection. Much of the Trump Era was a bunch of high profile Twitter liberals sitting around hoping for, or telling us about a “boom” that was going to wrap this MAGA problem up and we were all in the Final Days of a nightmare.

Me, mid-2025

Guess what!

All of that was naïve bullshit.

Mueller, in the end, did such a bad job by wrapping things up rather abruptly and taking too narrow a view of his mandate, that Trump turned around the day after his testimony to Congress and did something that go him impeached.

So, sadly, we have to put aside any foolish thoughts that a “boom” out of the blue is going to save jack squat, much less us.

We’re going to have to save ourselves. And, what’s worse, not only are radicalized Republicans attacking the basic machinery of elections on a tactical basis, they continue a macro, decades-long push to destroy our liberal democracy via gerrymandering and voter suppression. And, what’s even worse, autocracy is popular!

Republicans on a systemic level, are autocratic, anti-democratic fascists who have so glorified political violence that someone may take them up on all their bullshit and a lot of people will get hurt in a rather dramatic, 9/11-level type situation.

While the most obvious scenario is a lone-wolf blowing something important up like what happened in Oklahoma City, given how radicalized the Republican Party has become, it’s just as possible that whatever happens could be coordinated and happen at more than one location.

And I can tell you would would cause it: Republican rage at what they perceive as Biden’s COVID19 vaccine mandates. Just that added bit of pressure on our political system may be enough to cause something violent and dramatic to happen a lot sooner than one might think.

You would be amazed how many well meaning liberals I’ve spoken to who apparently still believe we’re going to be surprised by some combination of “booms,” rainbows, pixie dust and unicorn farts.

But instead of pinning all our hopes on something that is obviously not going to happen, we need to prepare for the worst. And that worst will be the existential choice of autocracy or civil war. I still don’t know which one we’re going to pick. But no one is going to save us.

The modern day Slave Power of the MAGA New Right is ascendant and if we turn into an autocracy the only question will be how bad it will get and how quickly. If it’s a civil war, well, we’re probably going to bomb ourselves into oblivion.

Just, please ,don’t rest your hopes on “booms.” We just don’t have the political will to do anything about Trump. And, even if we suddenly did, there are a dozen other would-be autocrats waiting to dive to finish the job he started. Things are bleak, really bleak and we’re being lulled into a false sense of security right now because we’re an autocracy without an autocrat.

No booms this time.

Now, there are conservatives who would tell me that I’m being “hysterical” and simply say, “no, it’s not.” But your normal and I’m not. You have a family that loves you and I could walk off the face of the planet and almost no one would care. We’ll see who’s right in the end. What do I get if it turns out I’m not being “hysterical” after all? A prize?

Or a bullet in the back of the head from an ICE agent?

I’m Worried A 9/11 Scale Domestic Terrorist Event May Happen Soon


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

There have been a few times in recent years when I felt a vague unease about what what was going on in the country. The most recent instance of this was Trump’s post-election shenanigans in late 2020 and early 2021. It just did not seem possible that things could keep going the way they were — in other words, something would have to happen.

I feel the same way now.

The reason why I feel this way is Biden has put unexpected additional pressure on our political system with his new COVID19 policies. And I have long said that the country is a lot less stable we realize. And if there was any additional pressure put on the system, it might come crashing down.

And, yet, what exactly might happen?

While I struggle to pinpoint any specific thing, in general terms, I’m worried about some sort of co-ordinated domestic terrorist event on a scale of 9/11. Something that would happen out of the blue that would shock us to the level that 9/11 did.

But, if history has proven one thing, there’s a reason why to date most of our major domestic terror attacks have been of the “Lone Wolf” variety (with the notable exception of January 6th) — usually it’s extremely difficult for a group of domestic terrorists to organize. They usually get infiltrated by FBI agents and the whole the is a bust (thankfully.)

And yet, Biden’s actions have ratcheted up the swirling turbulence in our political system to the extent that something could happen suddenly, abruptly, and violently on an unprecedented scale.

I just don’t know in what form it would take. I can think of some pretty dark scenarios — usually involving MAGA New Right people trying to incite a civil war by attempting to a coup-like-event — but I just can’t think of any particular one that is the most likely to happen.

And, yet, maybe I have it all wrong. Maybe we still have until either January 2023 or January 2025 to have to think about such things.