Tag: Glorious American Revolution of 2021

Steve K. Bannon: The Most Dangerous Man In America


by Ender

It’s very easy for Twitter liberals to get really worked up and to place on the blame America’s impending political clusterfuck solely on the shoulders of this or that person, as if we could somehow magically get rid of them then all of our problems would be solved.

This is so dumb because everyone from Trump to Bannon to DeJoy isn’t the problem, but, rather a symptom of our problems.

That someone like Trump could become president with the help of someone like Bannon is simply the practical application of severe macro problems in our politics. A prime example of what I’m talking about is what happened post-election day in 2020.

All these people who popped up to help Trump’s slow moving attempt to illegally stay in power were simply opportunists. Someone, somewhere, was going to pop up to do the very same thing. Who did it specifically did not really matter.

But let’s talk about Steve K. Bannon.

Steve K. Bannon

He likes to see himself as Lord Zod, destroyer of the administrative state. I think, in fact, he may have even compared himself to Lenin. Such suck-your-own-cock self-aggrandizement is pushing it, but not by much. Here’s what happened last time, with John Eastman trying to end our democracy.

While it’s highly like that someone like Bannon would have sprung up as we careened towards the Fourth Turning, the verdict is still out if he is A Great Man like Lenin who not just was a part of history, but MADE history. But even Lenin needed the conditions for him to strike.

This is the point in this post when I point out that I know myself well enough to know that if we really did have something as horrific as a civil war that *I* might just find myself in a historic situation. That sounds really fucking delusional — and it is. But I know myself well enough to know that either I’m going to die the first day of any civil war or I’m going to somehow weasel myself into some kind of leadership position in Blue State forces…somewhere. It may not be much, but would be a shit ton more than what I’m doing with my life right now.

But that is really fucking delusional thing for me to say at the moment.

The reason Bannon is so dangerous is he is attacking the very fiber of our liberal democracy. He’s attack it at the local level where it is its weakest because the requirements for participation are so low. These are usually filled with just average people off the street who believe in civil society and want to help out.

Bannon, meanwhile, wants to do to these otherwise pretty mundane offices what Trump has done to SCOTUS — fil it with a bunch of MAGA New Right ideologs who will come through for Trump (or DeSantis, or whomever) when the time comes in the 2024 – 2025 time frame (or the 2022 mid-terms.)

And, yet, the best laid plans of mice and human tumors often go awry. Bannon is probably going to be successful in destroying our democracy, but he also might be successful in destroying our democracy. There will come a moment at some point between now and January 2025 when Bannon’s plot will just about to succeed and, yet, it will not have totally succeeded. Here’s why we migtht have a civil war instead.

  1. Republicans have come to glorify political violence
    Something you see a lot these days within the bullshit echo chamber of the MAGA New Right is the belief that because “liberals won’t leave us alone” that they are being “driven” to extremism. There’s a lot of leading not-so-vague talk as to what all this would ultimately mean. But it’s clear that for a number of “thought leaders” within the MAGA New Right that they have accepted that at some point in the future, they’re going to have to resort to violence to get what they want.
  2. Republicans no longer believe in democracy
    It is now clear that like any good fascists, Republicans no longer believe in democracy unless it’s for the specific purpose of gaining and keeping power. This view of the system they’re supposed to a part of leads them do extremely distablizing things that help push the country to the brink.
  3. Trump 2024
    Just Trump being the 2024 nominee would, in itself, be enough to cause a civil war at some point in late 2024 – early 2025. He just has a special knack for “owning the libs” in such a way that if he stole in 2024 election and said the “quiet part outloud” that Blue States would grow so enraged that it would be they, not Red States, that left the Union and caused a Second Civil War. But Ron DeSantis is polling exceptionally well at the moment, so either Trump politically shivs him at some point, or he co-ops him, making him his VP, opening the door to DeSantis becoming America’s Putin at some point down the road a little bit.
  4. Steve K Bannon.
    Bannon and his toadies are actively working to destroy the framework that we use to administer free and fair elections. So, it’s very easy to imagine a situation where this gambit works in ways that Trump himself is too idiotic to pull off personally and it will be so egregious that, again, Blue States leave the Union and we have a Second American Civil War.
  5. Extreme negative polarization
    We’re in for a bump four or so years, no matter what, because negative polarization, on a systemic level, has reached a critical mass. When one of your political parties is fascist and would rather crash the global economy instead of even appear to work for the good of the nation — you got a problem.
  6. A lack of shared values
    As the big blow up on Twitter in the last 24 hours about a Stephen Colbert song and dance gag about getting vaccinated proves — we can’t even agree on what’s funny. A combination of this and negative polarization is leading to the United States being two nations, one Red, one Blue and when we get around to attempting to elect the next president, the system simply won’t be prepared for the passions it will stir up.
  7. A potentially historic miscalculation on the part of Republicans
    It’s possible that, much like European powers in the lead up to WW1, when the time comes and Republicans have a choice between peacefully transitioning us into autocracy or fucking with us all so we want to take up arms, they will choose the latter not because they have to, but because they want to. It’s possible that by the 2024 — 2025 period, Republicans will see a civil war as their only choice to consolidate power, even if it’s clear that they could get everything they ever wanted within the system they so obviously loath.

There will be one last death struggle for our democracy and either, like in 1861, we manage to crawl ourselves back from being dominated by Slave Power or, lulz, we don’t and Bannon is named reichsfuhrer.

One thing that is key to understand about Bannon. He is doing the one thing that so many so-called “Resistors” on Twitter can not or will not do — he’s doing real shit in the real world. He’s doing the hard work of effectuating his personal vision in the real world.

And that’s what makes him so fucking dangerous.

‘Is The USA Nearing A Civil War?’



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The popularity of people asking the Internet about the possibility of an impending civil war in the United States says a lot about modern America. I say this because it’s easy to bandy about the abstract of a “civil war” in the most powerful, ostensibly most stable nation in the world without really thinking about what it means.

It seems as though America, collectively, has begun to worry about its fate on an existential level.

In the immediate future, there are two points in the future when a civil car is a possibility. In the near term, something to do with the 2022 mid-terms might be enough to push us over the edge. If, say, Steve K. Bannon’s plot to corrupt election boards is successful in 2022 to the point that one side or the other makes a major political miscalculation, it’s possible the country would begin to split between Blue and Red.

The time, of course, is the 2024 presidential cycle.

This is what the book The Fourth Turning would have us believe. And it makes sense. Republicans are, on a systemic level, autocratic and anti-democratic to the point that if they have it within their power to deny Biden re-election in 2024, they will. And, in fact, things are so bad that Biden could lose fair and square and we could still have a Second Civil War.

But I still think around late 2024 — early 2025, the United States will face three existential choices — autocracy, civil war or military junta.

At the moment, I still don’t know which one of those three choices we will pick. Usually, if history is any guide, when things grow existential, the actual path of history is selected because of very specific tactical events that no one can predict in advance. That’s why Foundation-like “psychohistory” is so difficult to do in any practical form.

But, yes, I would say the United States at the moment is, in fact, careening towards a situation where a civil war is a very real possibility. All the macro metrics, at least, are pointing in that direction. Here are the reasons:

  1. Republicans have come to glorify political violence
    Something you see a lot these days within the bullshit echo chamber of the MAGA New Right is the belief that because “liberals won’t leave us alone” that they are being “driven” to extremism. There’s a lot of leading not-so-vague talk as to what all this would ultimately mean. But it’s clear that for a number of “thought leaders” within the MAGA New Right that they have accepted that at some point in the future, they’re going to have to resort to violence to get what they want.
  2. Republicans no longer believe in democracy
    It is now clear that like any good fascists, Republicans no longer believe in democracy unless it’s for the specific purpose of gaining and keeping power. This view of the system they’re supposed to a part of leads them do extremely distablizing things that help push the country to the brink.
  3. Trump 2024
    Just Trump being the 2024 nominee would, in itself, be enough to cause a civil war at some point in late 2024 – early 2025. He just has a special knack for “owning the libs” in such a way that if he stole in 2024 election and said the “quiet part outloud” that Blue States would grow so enraged that it would be they, not Red States, that left the Union and caused a Second Civil War. But Ron DeSantis is polling exceptionally well at the moment, so either Trump politically shivs him at some point, or he co-ops him, making him his VP, opening the door to DeSantis becoming America’s Putin at some point down the road a little bit.
  4. Steve K Bannon.
    Bannon and his toadies are actively working to destroy the framework that we use to administer free and fair elections. So, it’s very easy to imagine a situation where this gambit works in ways that Trump himself is too idiotic to pull off personally and it will be so egregious that, again, Blue States leave the Union and we have a Second American Civil War.
  5. Extreme negative polarization
    We’re in for a bump four or so years, no matter what, because negative polarization, on a systemic level, has reached a critical mass. When one of your political parties is fascist and would rather crash the global economy instead of even appear to work for the good of the nation — you got a problem.
  6. A lack of shared values
    As the big blow up on Twitter in the last 24 hours about a Stephen Colbert song and dance gag about getting vaccinated proves — we can’t even agree on what’s funny. A combination of this and negative polarization is leading to the United States being two nations, one Red, one Blue and when we get around to attempting to elect the next president, the system simply won’t be prepared for the passions it will stir up.
  7. A potentially historic miscalculation on the part of Republicans
    It’s possible that, much like European powers in the lead up to WW1, when the time comes and Republicans have a choice between peacefully transitioning us into autocracy or fucking with us all so we want to take up arms, they will choose the latter not because they have to, but because they want to. It’s possible that by the 2024 — 2025 period, Republicans will see a civil war as their only choice to consolidate power, even if it’s clear that they could get everything they ever wanted within the system they so obviously loath.

And, yet, it’s also possible that we’ll slip peacefully into a Russian-style autocracy and only a few more “woke” people like me will scream at the top of our lungs that we’re no longer a democracy.

But because for the average person nothing will have changed — at least in the near term — it will all be a lulz and it won’t be until 20 years of uninterrupted MAGA New Right rule that growing numbers of people might notice that something, at some point, changed.

This ‘Red October’ Bullshit Is Why America Is Going To Hell


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Jesus H. Christ. This Website gets, at most, about 100 unique views in one day. Ever since I posted about fucking “Red October” about 20% of my hits have been from fucking cocksucker idiot Qanon fucktards apparently giddy at the prospect of….what?

There is something deeply wrong with American politics if that many people all over the country actually believe some sort of Qanon bullshit about a “Red October” happening. And all because of a confusion over why the White House was bathed in red light!

You just can’t make this bullshit up.

And, yet, here we are. There is a small, but passionate, group of people who apparently think some sort of bonkers Qanon prophecy about Red October has now come to pass and, I don’t know…it’s just so much bullshit that my poor old globalist cuck mind can’t process it.

One way of looking at it is Qanon is the type of secret society bullshit that a nation on the cusp of civil war or revolution usually experiences. But oh my God would a civil war suck. It would be truly horrific.

#NeverTrumpers May Save Blue States in 2025


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I continue to grow more and more impressed with how passionate and articulate the #NeverTrump members are. They’re not perfect. In fact, some of those associated with The Lincoln Project have done some pretty sketchy things.

But, the thing about the prominent #NeverTrumpers is they have principles and guts. And a lot of them are born leaders who will definitely rise to the occasion should the dead hand of history decides to give them the opportunity to do so.

They could very well save the Union.

Now, given the radical forces — both Leftist and fascist — that any actual civil war would unleash, the fact that rock solid conservatives would be in charge of saving the Union (or at least the Blue State part of it) will probably lead to some pretty surreal political events.

So, in a sense, it would be if instead of Lincoln during the Civil War, it was a War Democrat.

Anyway, for #NeverTrumpers to be given the opportunity to lead Blue States, things would have gotten pretty fucking bad. The most logical way this would happen would be Blue States leave the Union when Red States simply nullify a Biden re-election in Congress and the country buckles.

If something like that happened, then be prepared for some pretty dramatic, and radical, events to take place in the United States very, very quickly. The moment the inevitable happens and WMD are used domestically, ooooh by.

If we slip peacefully into autocracy, then all the #NeverTrumpers will gradually be exiled, imprisoned or worse. Far Worse.

What If We Held A Second American Civil War & Nobody Came: The Case For A 2025 Military Junta


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’ve talked a lot about the existential choice of autocracy or civil war that America faces around 2025 as part of the so-called “Fourth Turning.” But there is a third option — military junta.

In a sense, this option makes a lot more sense than either autocracy or civil war because it could be just the temporary fix to our problems. The scenario I’m thinking of is rather than what the Reds want, which is autocracy or what the Blues might want out of desperation, which is civil war, we would simply turn the reigns of power over to the military.

Once we did that, it’s easy to imagine the whole point of the exercise would be a convening of a Constitutional Convention that would address the concerns of both sides. This would be a way to take the existential issues of 2025 out of the hands of our undead politics and turn it over to a hopefully objective existential body that would help us become a more perfect Union.

There, unfortunately, so many problems with this on-paper ideal solution that it’s highly unlikely it would happen. What’s more likely to happen is either we slip peacefully into a MAGA New Right autocracy or Blue States grow so enraged that they leave the Union and all hell breaks loose.

The biggest problem is, of course, the U.S. Military on a systemic basis will do everything in its power to avoid this very solution, even to the point that the whole country collapses into anarchy. This would happen when the military simply refuses to pick a side when Trump fucks everything up like he always does and we just don’t know who the “real” POTUS is and Blue and Red States go for each others throats.

Another problem might be, that the not even the military will be able to withstand the forces tearing the country apart and the largely MAGA enlisted men pick the opposite side as the brass. So, instead of a unified military being able to step in for a few crucial months, everything collapses in on itself and we bomb ourselves into oblivion using illicitly seized caches of WMD.

If MAGA gets its way and we turn into an autocracy then, well, lulz.

The point of all of this is we need to start preparing ourselves for some pretty astonishing choices in the 2024 -2025 timeframe. And it’s going to suck so, so bad. It’s going to be horrible.

But the current autocracy without an autocrat status quo can not stand. We have a short-term solution to a long-term problem.

The 2022 Mid-Term Campaign Season Has Begun


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

In just the last few days, I’ve sensed that things have changed America. I don’t quite know what’s going on, but it’s there. It seems as though we are now, after much delay, officially in the Biden Era and, as such, it seems the MAGA New Right has become re-invigorated.

Now, let me put that in context.

The Republican Establishment is ready to move on from Trump himself. They got everything they could possibly ever imagine because of his chaos and, in a sense, they’re sated. They’re ready to find a Trump Without Trump who will do the same thing but without all the headaches.

Now what.

As such, there is tension between the MAGA New Right base that remains all-in with Trump and the Establishment that really, really would rather DeSantis be the nominee in 2024. That’s why DeSantis is beginning to rise so rapidly within Republican circles — he is a viable candidate that a lot of traditional conservatives can support without the embarrassing extensive permission structure required with Trump.

The only problem is, Trump wants to be the next Trump and screwing up the best laid plans of the Republican Establishment is his thing. So Trump in the next year or so will have to make a decision — co-op DeSantis by making him is veep or destroy him. Trump is so difficult to predict at times that at the moment I can’t tell you which one he’s going to do.

But I do know that the shift I’m feeling probably has something to do with the beginning of the extended 2022 mid-term cycle. That cycle will officially be kicked off the moment we know who Virginia’s next governor is. I would go so far as to say it’s possible that if Republican Glenn Youngkin wins (which I think he has a fair chance of doing) that is will we will lurch into a real New Era because we’re all going to be thinking about what that means for the 2022 mid-terms themselves.

All I can say is, batten down the hatches because things are dark in the United States an only going to get worse as the months and years progress. We’re going to be facing more and more existential situations as we careen towards a massive, historic clusterfuck in 2024 – 2025.

If Glenn Youngkin Is Governor Of Virginia in 2025, He Might Get Overthrown In A Coup


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I can’t predict the future. I have no idea what is going to happen. I’m wrong so often that it’s comical. But, lulz, I have psychological need to make my abstract fears concrete so let’s talk about Glenn Youngkin.

I’m of the opinion that despite sage admonishments by Larry Sabato to the contrary, given that Virginia is a functioning democracy — unlike North Carolina — that it’s inevitable that some MAGA New Right cocksucker is going to become governor.

That’s the kind of bullshit you have to worry about when one of your two major political parties is fascist.

So, it’s reasonable to believe that what would otherwise be pretty mundane — a Republican governor in Virginia in 2025 — could have some pretty huge fucking consequences.

Namely, a Governor Youngkin would be a prime candidate for an actual fucking coup if the country collapsed. I say this Virginia is actually two different states. You have the autocratic Trumplandia rural parts and everything else. It’s easy to imagine Youngkin throwing his lot with a MAGA presidential candidate and doing everything in his power to throw the state to the Red side, even to the point of outright nullification.

This would not sit well with the otherwise placid, moderates of Virginia.

If the shit really hit the fan, Virginia is probably doomed. It’s going to implode and either Youngkin flees to somewhere like, I dunno, Danville, or he’s overthrown altogether.

It might not be very pretty.

But, I can’t predict the future. All my dystopian nightmare scenarios may be, in the end, just that.

‘Worry’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As of the moment, I believe we’re not going to get the debt ceiling crisis worked out in time and, for the first time, the US is going to default on its debt. Things could change, but the momentum at the moment is definitely towards default.

In other words, we’re fucked.

Pray.

I still doubt there’s going to be a MAGA New Right themed “revolution” anytime soon, but going through a massive global economic crisis of your own making isn’t exactly great for a nation’s stability.

Once you knock out one of the pillars of a stable government — the economy — the entire political system won’t be far behind. I say this, especially since the Republican Party is now a vigilante group that is so wrapped up in negative polarization that it would rather destroy the country than work with Democrats.

I guess what I’m saying is — whatever you would do in preperation of a worst case scenario economic crisis on a personal basis — do that. Now.

‘When is The Second Civil War Starting?’


This is another in my series of answering the searches about a civil war or revolution that bring people to this site. This one was from — you guessed it — Alabama.

Short answer: probably around January 2025, if it happens.

Long Answer: very good question.

That someone in Alabama would casually ask when the Second Civil War is going to start gives you some insight into how bad things are at the moment. But as of right now, I think if we do have a Second Civil War it will happen at some point after Election Day 2024 and before Certification Day in January 2025.

An actual hot civil war in the United States would be only one end of a spectrum of potential outcomes, with the an autocracy being on the other end. And lot depends on what Donald Trump does. If he runs for president again and is the nominee, he is so fucking idiotic and incompetent that he might, just by continuing to be a political force, push the United States into civil war.

But there is always a small chance that well before 2024 – 2025, some unexpected event might start a hot civil war in the United States well before the two sides (or I) expect it. Remember, for it to be a “civil war” you would need a government and troops. If it’s just a bunch of idiots in a rural part of Oregon and that’s it, well, that’s not even a revolution.

You would need some sort of mass attack on the civil Federal authority on a state level for it to be a real “civil war.” And, as such, my best guess is, at the moment, those conditions will be met when the government is at its weakest — between Election Day 2024 and Certification Day 2025.

I will note that I think we’re in a similar situation as about 1857, only things are begin speed up and feel slower because the pace of modern life is so much faster. But, as they say, people go bankrupt gradually then all at once, so it’s possible that my fears about a civil war will be justified a lot sooner than I currently expect.

But something really out of the blue would have to happen for the country to actually have a civil war anytime soon as of late 2021. We’ll see, I guess.

The Electoral College Is Obscuring The Severity Of Our Current Crisis


by Ender

It’s difficult to make a one-to-one comparison between the modern United States and early 30s Germany for one crucial reason: Germany was a parliamentary system, while the United States has an presidential system based on balance of powers and an Electoral College.

A more honest depiction of the American political system on the ground would show the American Fascist Party being the biggest party, only countered — at the moment — by a large center-Left coalition. If we had a parliamentary system like German, we would all be freaking the fuck out a lot more because it would be a lot more obvious how dire our situation is.

The Democratic Party is really a center-Left coalition of anti-fascist parties, socialists, moderates, Labor, etc. That’s why it’s so difficult to get the party to do anything — it’s not even really a party, but a jumble of different smaller parties fused together because of how we election our presidents.

Or, put another way — the Electoral College, on a systemic level, is luling us into a false sense of security. It’s difficult for us to comprehend that one of the two major political parties in the United States no longer believes in democracy and are hell bent on establishing an autocratic White Christian ethno state. They will stop at nothing to do this, to the point that they would rather wreck the world economy than have any form of bipartisanship.

Politics is now dead in the United States. In a post-political environment, you’re pretty much just waiting for some sort of crisis to spark some sort of violent historical event be it revolution or civil war.

Also, note that if we were a parliamentary system it would be a lot more clear how dire things are because it would be growing more and more difficult for us to form a government. What the fascists GQP New Right Republicans are doing with the debt ceiling would have an immediate effect as opposed to causing a crisis that would only be felt at the polls in about a year.

The point is — the United States is far, far more unstable than you might think. At the moment, the only thing holding the country together is, well, the political system that the Electoral College mandates. That’s why the next crisis will be severe and it will happen either in 2022 or 2024.

Things are dark.