Tag: Glorious American Revolution of 2021

Second American Civil War: A State By State Breakdown


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Macro trends are not on America’s side. As I keep saying, 2024 is going to be it. It’s the year when either the United States turns into a Russian-style “managed democracy” or there’s a civil war. Now, this isn’t going to be a complete list of the 50 states, but I am going to highlight some of the states that may be more problematic should a Second American Civil War erupt.

Oregon
The state is really two states and, as such, is probably going to be a major flashpoint in any Second Civil War. What’s likely to happen is Portland will buck any attempt at a putsch on the part of bonkers Right wing nutjobs in the rest of the state and, as such, either there’s a really blood struggle in the state or there are a massive amount of political refugees from the Portland area as the rest of the state sides with MAGA.

Virginia
Again, this is really two states. There’s the NOVA-Richmond-Hampton Roads urban corridor and everything else. It’s very easy to imagine a situation — especially with Virginia’s historic ties to the first Civil War — where the state implodes as we grow closer and closer to a Second Civil War. Too many good old boys in the rural areas of Virginia might get wrapped up in the “Lost Cause” mythos and decide to seize places like Danville (the last capitol of the Confederacy) or Richmond (another Confederate capitol.) If nothing else, simply because of the larger population of the “Blue” parts of the state, there will be significant violence and political refugees as the Blues consolidate power.

Michigan
I don’t know as much about this state, but it definitely seems as though once the pre-war process of coups and political consolation begins that there will be at least a coup attempt on the part of the Far Right. Again, don’t underestimate how once you actually start murdering people that the dynamics of things change significantly. It’s very possible that there would be a coup in the state, it would fail, and there would be significant political violence as the state’s Blue population fought back and put the state firmly on the Blue side.

New York
Yet again, we have a situation where once politics fails us that the otherwise banal regional differences in a state tears it apart. New York City is far more progressive than the rest of New York State and, depending on how things work out, it’s possible that New York City could become a revolutionary hotbed to the point that is tears itself away from the rest of the state and proclaims itself a Free City. This almost happen during the first Civil War. If nothing else, there will be a serious jiggling of the relationship between NYC and the rest of the state to the point where it aligns itself in any Second Civil War with New Jersey and Connecticut in a way that update New York does not. Or, again, there could be significant political consolidation as Blues from all over the northeast flee to New York and the MAGA-friendly natives of the state flee elsewhere.

Maine
I really don’t know that much about this state other than a vague belief that the northern part of the state is far different than the southern part. It’s very easy to imagine significant consolation in the state one way or another as people flee to it as the rest of the country buckles. The state is big — if sparsely populated — and it’s strategic location near the Canadian border might be enough for it to be the home to large refugee camps.

Texas
Texas would be in an odd situation as the country fell into civil war because its long-term political trend is shifting Blue, but it’s part of the South and a lot of people consider themselves Southern and MAGA. So either it simply buckles into its own intra-civil war or the MAGA cocksucker fucktards push out all the Blues who flee to Blue States nearby. The end result would be a lot of pissed off former Texans who would be of great benefit to the Blue cause.

California
In a sense, the whole fate of the United States rests on what California does. If it simply bolts from the Union, then that significantly hobbles the Blue cause on the ground. California sitting on its hands and become its own nation in the event of a Second Civil War makes it far more likely that either Red states win or there is some sort of half-ass balkanization of the United States. But if California stays and fights, then they could provide not only the necessary economy and population for a Blue state victory — after many, many dead — but also something of a vision for what America would look like after we’re finished bombing ourselves into oblivion.

The Deep South
It’s very easy to imagine at the onset of a Second American Civil War most of the old Confederacy on a political level getting extremely excited and having a massive amount of momentum to either leave the Union outright or support the Republican controlled Congress’ attempt to brazenly steal the election. Then reality would sink in — all of the Southern states have significant African American populations and once politics is no longer a viable method of solving problems then the far more brutal dynamics of realpolitik would kick in. I just can’t imagine millions of African Americans lulzing a return to the Confederacy, no matter how badly the white political establishment of those states may want it. So, even though the South has a lot of people and a big economy, it would be, on a regional basis, too busy fighting a race war to really help the Red cause all that much. If things really grew as radical as I fear they will — probably because WMD are stolen and cities start to get vaporized — it’s the Deep South where you’re most likely to see some WW2 level atrocities as radicalized whites begin to murder blacks en mass.

As for the rest of the states, their ability to pick one side or the other is probably far easier and their biggest problem would be dealing with political refugees.

Well, At Least A Second Civil War Would Be One Way To Fix Modern America’s Problems


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing about history is, there’s no narrative while you’re living through it. We give history value and a narrative after the fact to make sense of the world. When history is actually happening around you, it fucking sucks.

There are a number of systemic problems in modern America that are eating away at our rotting liberal democracy. As such, we’re at something of a crossroads. Who’s vision of America will we follow? MAGA’s racist, misogynistic white Christian ethno state, or the liberal-progressive vision of equality, inclusion and traditional liberal democratic values?

Now, I will be the first to admit that “woke” “cancel culture” — even though it doesn’t really exist — is something that conservatives have a legitimate reason to worry about (in some respects.) What I mean is, we’re two different countries that are quickly receding from each other to the point that conservatives don’t know the “new rules” of society that are being established in major metropolitan areas.

At the crux of this clusterfuck, I believe, is young people have lost all perspective on what’s important. It’s been close to 50 years since they had to worry about the draft and the hell of war is nothing more than an abstract. I think the way to solve a lot of our systemic problems in National Service for all 18 year olds. That would be one way to get good old boys from Alabama to be forced to talk to Brooklyn soyboys and vis versa.

Tragically, that’s just not an option.

Even though I would much, much rather just continue to patch up our rotting liberal democracy for as long as possible to punt the prospect of war down the road, if you take MAGA’s bloodlust seriously, you have to admit to yourself that if the “good guys” won any such civil war then at least — on a macro level — a lot of our intractable problems might find some suddenly very easy solutions.

But that’s a big “if.”

It’s very easy to imagine MAGA cocksuckers winning or the country splitting into two and each side implementing their own visions for America in their respective new nations.

I do find it very troubling, however, how fucking bloodthirsty MAGA is right now. Jesus Christ, people.

Life In Modern Antebellum America — Taking The Prospect Of Civil War In 2024 Seriously


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

You would be amazed at how many people who come to this site apparently think they’re going to be some sort of MAGA revolution NOW. It blows my mind. There’s some fucked up shit brewing in the Far Right echo chamber and we’re just not prepared for it.

The only thing I can compare it to is pre-WW1 Europe where people had forgotten how much the Napoleonic Wars had sucked and were itching for a new opportunity to bathe in the glories of war. In other words, MAGA cocksuckers are so wrapped up in the abstract of killing liberals that they have completely deluded themselves as to what such a conflict might actually be like.

As I have repeatedly said before, MAGA looks at the center-Left and sees a bunch of globalist cuck soyboys who they can easily crush. I would suggest to them to first — fuck off — and second even a soyboy might get a bit more frisky if you stuck a gun in their face. MAGA people with bloodlust are taking the dynamic of our rotting liberal democracy and extrapolating it to the world of war and the two are not the same.

I don’t even know what the war aims of MAGA would be in a civil war. As of right now, it seems like their goals in a civil war are little more than a grunt. They just have been so brain washed by FOX News that they probably couldn’t even tell you WHY they hate liberals so much.

And, remember, if we really did have a civil war Red States have two major problems. One, the places where they could most successfully seize control are small, white states. Meanwhile, the states that would otherwise provide them with the economies and population they would need to seize “total control” have large African American communities that would rather engage in a race war than leave the Union so a bunch of Nazi Confederate fucktards can make them slaves again. UGH.

Here’s another thing — any “hot” civil war in the United States would unleash significant radicalization on both sides. It’s easy to imagine a situation where Blue States drafted women into some sort of New Model Army, which would greatly increase the potential pool of soldiers.

I guess the argument could be made that Red States could simply use stolen WMD to nuke and gas Blue States into submission but once that particular genii was let out of its bottle then both sides would use it. Such vicious behavior would only serve to radicalize both sides even more as the war progressed.

What I want to make clear is the center-Left needs to take the threat of some sort of sucker punch on the part of Red States in 2024 seriously. MAGA cocksuckers have zoomed past the mental preperation necessary to start murdering people like me in cold blood and the sooner center-Left people (or people who simply want to live in a traditional liberal democracy) begin to figure out how they’re going to address that in 2024, the better.

Taking Tucker Carlson Seriously As A 2024 Presidential Candidate


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Just from my own personal experience with conservatives in my family, I can tell you that Tucker Carlson definitely would be a serious political figure the moment he announced for president.

Trump is obviously a problem for him, but if Trump decides to simply run via the proxies of either Ivanka Trump or Lara Trump then Carlson has a far more serious chance of winning both the nomination and the election.

The thing about Carlson is, he, like Trump before him would go into the presidency not having any experience being in government. So, at least at first, the same dynamic that too place in 2017 would be repeated. President Carlson would screw up and he would incite a huge amount of graft and corruption simply because he would have no idea what he was doing.

But here’s where things would be different — Carlson is actually a sane human being who after going through an extremely sharp learning curve would figure out the ropes of government and be able to implement his White Nationalist vision for America.

So, it’s easy to imagine Carlson being able to make his personal version of MAGA a reality in ways that Trump simply was not able to. I don’t think we appreciate how rotten to the core our liberal democracy is and how easy it would be for Carlson to become an autocrat.

And, really, the sad thing is there are half a dozen other would-be Republican autocrats waiting in the wings, wanting to do exactly the same thing.

Endgame 2024: From Second American Civil War To Autocracy


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Let’s go through the different potential endgames for our coming 2024 catastrophe.

The Punt
In this scenario, Something Big happens again that punts the systemic crisis we currently face down the road yet another presidential cycle. Things that might do this include a major war — against, say, the DPRK or Iran — or some technological advancement that so jiggles society that the Far Left and the Far Right fuse into a new, anti-tech party and the “good guys” live to fight again.

Implosion
With this one, there’s some sort of civil war when the now-Republican controlled Congress does everything in its power to give the presidency to the Republican. The more brazen the theft, the worse the crisis and the more likely a major civil war of some sort will occur. This version of this scenario is more muddled than an actual civil war and involves more severe rolling political violence at the state level that leaves the country hobbled.

Implosion: Secession
It’s possible that no matter what, one side or the other will, as part of the passions of any post-election night shenanigans, attempt to secede from the Union. This is an extremely murky situation because I don’t know who the leaders would be and what their war aims would be. We might simply nuke ourselves into oblivion as part of the birthing process of two new nations.

Implosion And Redemption
This would involve a whole lot of luck that America has lacked the last few decades. In this version, we nuke each other into oblivion but come out the other side re-united and stronger. This would be because the what happened would be such a fucking tragedy — even though the “good guys” won — that the systemic problems destroying the country would be forgotten and we would go back to having a shared vision of what America is.

Autocracy
Another outcome is things happen so fast that we shrug off how brazen the Republican theft of the election is and that’s it — we’re an autocracy for decades to come. Gradually, the autocrat begins to consolidated power to the point that the media is purged and ICE becomes something of a latter day gestapo. There are grumblings about secession on the part of Blue States but nothing comes of it and every year sees a tightening of the the autocratic noose around American throats.

Dystopian Hellscape
In this endgame, we have a civil war and MAGA wins. Because of the civil war, MAGA will have grown significantly more radical and we’ll be living in Trumpandia at last.

Georgia As Setup For America’s 2024 Catastrophe


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It’s growing clear that our choice in 2024 will be quite stark. The move to restrict voting rights in Georgia indicates that the setup is being established for Republicans to finally, finally get their macro wish — to make it so difficult to vote that people finally give up and let them run roughshod over our undead liberal democracy.

This is where you never can tell.

On one hand, it’s possible that now that the passions of the Trump Era are easing that voters will get sucker punched in 2024 and they will either lulz it and let Republicans rape our republic or they will grow enraged and, well..dun dun dun there’s a civil war.

This setup will grow even more obvious the moment Republicans take control of Congress again. It’s going to suck so bad. The one-two punch of severe voter restrictions and a Congress controlled by fascists pretty much means the end of our liberal democracy is here…unless there’s a civil war and solve our systemic problems that way.

And, don’t forget, either way — autocracy or civil war — there’s a good chance that the entire world order will be re-arranged. No matter how much fucking MAGA cocksuckers may want us to think otherwise — America is the indispensable nation and we’re the glue that keeps the world together. Take us out of the equation and…oh boy. I would estimate within a year of us “bringing the boys home” nearly half a billion people could be vaporized. Indian and Pakistan are always one misstep away from blowing each other to hell. Take the US out of world affairs and that particular disaster is almost a foregone conclusion.

As I keep saying, the issue is — enjoy this quiet before the storm. These two years before Congress flips may be the most quiet we get for the rest of the decade.

America As Failed State


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The America I know and love will end very soon, probably in the winter of 2024 after the presidential election. Either we elect an autocrat who successfully strangles our zombie liberal democracy or he bungles that transition and there’s a civil war.

Now, as I’ve written before there are plenty of “known unknowns” that might delay this choice of autocracy or civil war, but there’s no avoiding the choice at some point. There are plenty of reasons why this is, but the chief reason is the rot at the core of the American political system.

Now that Republicans have become a old fashion fascist party, I just don’t see there being any way for us to escape our doom. The only reason why we escaped our fate in 2020 was Donald Trump was too old, too lazy and too unfocused to get the job done. He flirted with the necessary tactics to destroy America, but in the end he choked.

Really, at this point, I would suggest that only a major regional war with, say North Korea — started at just the right moment in the 2024 presidential cycle — would be enough to punt our impending existential crisis down the road one more presidential cycle. Or, if Elon Musk so disrupted the trucking industry that the far Left and the far Right fused together in opposition to job-killing technology.

Otherwise, we’re fucked by no later than late 2024.

In its own tragic way, I would suggest that in a way a second civil war might at least give us some opportunity for redemption like the first Civil War. Though it would be such a horrific tragedy that such a redemption would only happen because both sides would have suffered equally enough that they would be willing to renew the American Covenant.

If we become an autocracy, then, well, there is no hope. Our new autocratic Republican ruling class will simply keep cutting taxes and social benefits, continue to make it harder for women to have sexual agency and continue to keep minorities under the jackboot of systemic racism. In the end, America and Russia will be politically identical and I get pushed out of a window by ICE agents for being too much a of loudmouth.

Of Trump Potentially Using The ‘Presidential Text Alert System’ Instead of Twitter


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m pretty good, in a vague way, of calling what Trump is going to do in the Final Days. I pretty much called the significance of January 6th, though I didn’t call anything specific — just that it would be important.

But anyway.

One interesting thing is Trump still hasn’t snapped like I thought he would. I thought he would get into a logic trap and go REALLY CRAZY. But he’s still the usual olde crazy. One sign we would get that he was totally off the reservation would be if he started to do a quick succession of things that did not really help him as the House rushes to impeach him — again.

One of those things would be to use the Presidential Text Alert System — usually reserved for, like, announcing nuclear war — as something akin to a replacement for Twitter now that he’s lost that account.

There’s a lot to take into account on this front.

Remember, in real terms, Trump’s era is over, so he would have to do something that slowed time down significantly for there to be a even more of a mad rush to get rid of him. Trump has yet to do something REALLY FUCKING CRAZY like incite sedition using the Presidential Text Alert System to shoot out a tweet to everyone in America’s phone. In, fact, he seems pretty chill compared to what I expected he would be at this point.

Something would have to change, and change fast — like in the next 48 hours. Yes, he’s supposed to have a press conference at the Alamo, but, really, even if he went Howard Beale at such a conference, he only has less than two weeks in office.

The Final Days of Trumplandia.

Trump would have to go transactional — start a war, tell his followers to overthrow the government in a specific type way or, say, use the Presidential Text Alert System to do any number of really crazy transactional things.

But him just blabbering at a press conference wouldn’t be enough. He’s been doing that for some time now — four years — and it was only when he went transactional in front of a crazed hoard near the Capitol that it mattered to anyone.

So, really, while Trump is, in fact, a massive self-own artist, as of right this second, he’s going to escape justice, just like he always does. Only time will tell.

President Chauncy Gardner #ETTD


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I called it. I said Trump would likely go bonkers around the time Congress counted Electors and I was right. And, in a more vague way, I predicted that we were careening towards something of a “political 9/11.”

And so here we are.

The conundrum of where we are now is we have only a fortnight left in the Trump Era. That’s it. Two weeks. If we can just make it through the next two weeks, then we lurch — maybe are pushed — into something quite unexpected: a true autocracy without an autocrat.

Our democracy is obviously so fragile that if Trump really was “the guy from The Apprentice” then, well, we wouldn’t be talking about Biden coming into office. Trump would have done the hard work of stealing his second term, he’d have a thin veneer of legality and that would be that.

And, yet, for all my endless speculation that Trump would do this or that autocratic thing, it turns out he really is just a deranged version of Chauncy Gardner from Being There.

TRUMP LITERALLY IS CHAUNCY GARDNER FROM BEING THERE.

Our president.

What this means is, we were all so busy assuming he was an autocrat that we missed that while he may have autocratic impulses, Trump is such a ding-dong that he can’t — or won’t — do the hard work necessary to actually become an autocrat.

As such, all the conditions and tools for autocracy are just laying around in our politics and society, waiting to be picked up by Josh Hawley (or whomever.) So, we’re probably going to just drift into the Biden Era and be in neutral until Biden gets inevitably impeached.

But.

Trump is so fucking bonkers right now that he could self-own in such a spectatular fashion in the next two weeks that the political 9/11 that we had to day could actually be a series of pollical 9/11s that absolutely FORCE us to act to push Trump out of office for no other reason than we’ve come to think he’s a threat to himself — or us.

I have no idea what is going to happen.

But it’s going to be weird.

The Guns Of January: The Current State Of Political Affairs In The United States Is Untenable


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Something is going to happen. The United States is running on political fumes right now and if history is any guide, someone, somewhere is going to put unexpected stress on the system. It’s almost inevitable at this point.

Or, put another way, while we could very well punt this particular macro crisis in the United States down the road four years, the lines have hardened to such an extent that something that otherwise would not really be a big deal, might spark a sequence of events with no discernable endgame.

I would compare it to Europe mid-1914 right before the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand. Europe was a power keg that just needed a spark to explode — and that spark came. The United States is the same way. But, let me be clear to all the MAGA-Patriot Party shithead cocksuckers who think there’s going to be some sort of conservative “revolution” if the Dear Leader doesn’t stay in power for the rest of his life.

There won’t be a conservative revolution.

This.
Is
Not
Going
To
Happen

There’s not going to be a revolution. You may want to fuck your gun, but you’re not going to have a “revolution.” I don’t know why so many fucking idiots in Texas come to this site looking for my dystopian porn about the end of the United States. Fuck you, you idiots.

I will admit that Trump may TRY to stoke civil undress in a big way in the latter days of his administration in a last-ditch effort to stay in power, but, no, there’s not going to be any sort of conservative “revolution” by so-called “patriots” who want lower taxes and “freedom” from fear of being “canceled” when they’re a dick to women or minorities and get caught.

It’s all very frustrating.

When I talk about a “Glorious Revolution” in the United States, I’m NOT TALKING ABOUT A TURNER DIARIES RACE-WAR REVOLUTION YOU FUCKING IDIOTS. I’m talking about Trump, in a spasm of extra-political and extra-legal acts, being overthrown because, well, everyone who isn’t MAGA finally gets tired of his shit an hits the streets, maybe even up to the point of there being a General Strike.

There may be some serious counter-revolution style civil unrest in the United States, but I see that happening more in four years than now. The far Right, while full of abstract hate and rage against “libtards,” simply isn’t well organized yet. They need to marinate in their hate a few more years before they reach SA / SS levels of hate.

If Trump just freaks out at some point between now and January 20th and declares martial law unliterally or starts a war in an effort to “wag the dog” so he can pull a Constitutional fast one on us, he’s not going to be successful. He is going to seriously scare the shit out of us, but he’s not going to be successful. He just isn’t well organized mentally to pull it off.

So, yes, all the elements are there for significant political violence in the United States any moment now. But it will happen in the context of the Mad King being fucking bonkers, not some sort of Right wing revolution where we all sing kumbha over the broiling bodies of liberals. So, fuck you, you fucking cocksucker MAGA shitheads.