Tag: Glorious American Revolution of 2021

An Illuminative Conversation That May Portend A Second American Civil War


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I had a very interesting conversation with a very conservative relative recently. It was very illuminative about what’s going on with the Right until I got really angry and it abruptly ended. At the end of the conversation I got really, really mad because my interlocutor refused to acknowledge that Trump was the direct cause of the January 6th Capitol Insurrection. This, after we all saw Trump incite the revolt on TV. And, what’s more, the person I was talking to agreed with me right after the event!

But he had changed his mind, apparently, since then.

The interesting thing about talking to someone from the Right, especially someone who is smart and well educated is that many of their views are the exact opposite of mine. But it was interesting that there was one issue that he believed but could not support — he believed that it would be Leftists, not MAGA, who would attempt to establish an autocracy.

I pressed him on why he believed this, and he just blinked a few times until we moved on.

It’s how conversations like this one cause people to stop talking about politics altogether that indicate MAGA cocksuckers are going to get their long-sought after Second American Civil War soon enough. The bolts are popping of our political discourse in an alarming rate and soon enough, just like slave power in 1861, MAGA Republicans (in probably 2025) are going to come to believe that if they can’t get an autocracy that their only recourse is a civil war.

When two people from opposite ends of the political spectrum simply give up talking about politics because things grow too heated, then the whole system is going to collapse one way or another. Either you get an autocracy where half of the electorate has given up or you get a civil war where both sides believe politics is no longer a viable option to enact policy change.

So, my chief take away from the conversation I had recently is America is a powder keg. At some point — probably in the 2024-2025 timeframe — we will be presented with a very, very stark choice: civil war or a MAGA autocracy. The Right has already established the ideological framework for a civil war and, in fact, they crave it.

You can only rant about how much you hate “libtards” and because they love open boarders and “want to kill babies” before you organize in a collective manner to “end” that particular “problem” once an for all. As I keep saying, MAGA forgoing politics for political violence is very, very dumb for a number of reasons.

But it definitely seems — at least if my Webstats are any indication — that good old boys all over America want to murder people like me once they get the chance. How successful they will ultimately be is anyone’s guess.

Second American Civil War 2021: The Growing Arizona Recount Crisis


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Almost all of this blog’s traffic now comes from people nervous about a Second American Civil War or revolution sometime soon. Given where most of these people are from, it definitely seems as though a bunch of MAGA good old boys search for this subject while drinking Millar Lites on the back porch of their cabin with a good buddy.

I would guess this happens because of this or that perceived slight on the part of “libtards” get them so worked up they start to think a Second American Civil War is bound to happen any moment now.

I’m growing alarmed by events in Arizona. It definitely seems as though the Arizona Republican Party is absolutely determined to do as many recounts of their presidential votes as necessary to prove that Trump won. This go round, they’ve gone so far as to pick a brand name in the “Stop The Steal” movement to be among those conducting the recount. And, from what I can tell, security isn’t so great where their doing the recount. AND, Trump has demanded the National Guard be called in to monitor the recount.

So, much fear is, after yet another recount, Arizona Republicans will “prove” that Trump “won” and, as such, this will set off a chain reaction. Trump will first run around crowing that he won Arizona after all. It will become gospel among Republicans that Trump won Arizona. It will be come a talking point that Republicans pivot to whenever there is a discussion of the 2020 election. Another thing that might happen is other states that Trump feels he should have won will do the exact same thing and before you know it, the country will become very, very unstable.

Could it be Second American Civil War in 2021 unstable? Unclear. It’s possible, but not probably. So, I guess if you want to fuck your gun, you can think about Arizona while you sodomize your AR-15 or something. But if Arizona Republicans manage to flip their state to Trump — even if it’s debunked — then we really are careening towards civil war or autocracy in 2024-2025.

As for 2021, I’m reluctant to think we’re going to have a civil war so early.

Is America Closer To Civil War In 2021?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing about the United States in 2021 is there are no easy answers. The Right has reached the point in its glorification of political violence that, yes, we are, in fact closer to a civil war in 2021.

But.

  1. It’s not in our nature to have a civil war.
    For all the hateful rhetoric on the part of the MAGA New Right, it’s possible that in the end, they manage to pull off a peaceful transition to autocracy. In fact, at first, at least, the chance from democracy to autocracy could be so subtle that only a few hysterical people like me even notice. For the average person, it will just be a replay of 2000, only worse: it will simply be accepted that the only way a Democrat can become POTUS is if that party also control Congress. People will say “the system worked” and move on.
  2. Republicans have gamed the system.
    It could be that by 2024 – 2025 the actual administration of elections will be so corrupt that it will be a fact of life that people shrug and take for granted. It will be the first step towards Americans becoming Russians in that they will no longer feel as though the government expresses the will of the people. And that will be that.
  3. Not Trump 2024
    Another reason why we could slip peacefully into autocracy is it’s not Trump who is the Republican nominee, but someone other than Trump. If this is the case, when I honestly don’t see why we would have a civil war. Autocracy is so popular within the United States –and the opposition to it is so weak — that our transition to an actual autocracy will in the end be so easy to pull off that there will be no need to resort to violence. Blue States will get angry, but, lulz, they always get angry, right Mr. Eastman?
  4. Autocracy is very popular in the United States
    A sizable portion of the United States’ electorate wants an autocracy. They want one so bad that they seem like a cult to people who aren’t all that thrilled at the prospect of one. So, it’s possible that they will wrap up the transition into autocracy without any violence at all. By the time people realize what they’ve lost, it will be way, way too late. The United States will be nothing more than a Russia clone with an identical political dynamic. There will be a MAGA-themed Constitutional Convention to “pass a balanced budget amendment” and we’ll still have President DeSantis (or whomever) 30 years from now.
  5. Anti-MAGA forces are just too weak willed.
    Again, it could be that when push comes to shove, the whole thing will be over before it even starts. There will be a lot of angry tweets on Twitter, but in the end, because Twitter liberals aren’t willing to risk anything in the real world, we slip peacefully into autocracy and that, as they say, will be that.

It’s just not very likely that there will be a Second American Civil War this year. A second civil war is much more likely to be part of a spectrum of choices that America faces in the 2024-2025 timeframe. On one end of the spectrum will be MAGA Republican autocratic rule for generations to come and on the other end will be a violent, tragic second civil war.

The reason I fear this is likely is the titanic, existential forces at work within American politics are such that we just aren’t going to make it through another presidential cycle. By 2024, MAGA Republicans will have soaked in their hate so long that they simply will not accept any result that doesn’t involve them being on top.

And once they’re on top, they’re probably going to purge the “fake news,” weaponize the ICE infrastructure and consolidate power in various ways to the extent that there will be no difference between the United States and the autocratic managed democracy of modern Russia. MAGA Republicans already have a huge fucking boner for Putin because they believe the autocratic state he runs in some sort of magical dream that if they can replicate it will allow them to establish a white Christian ethno state where scary brown people know their place and women are nothing more than birthing chambers.

Here’s why we might have a civil war.

  1. Republicans have come to glorify political violence
    Something you see a lot these days within the bullshit echo chamber of the MAGA New Right is the belief that because “liberals won’t leave us alone” that they are being “driven” to extremism. There’s a lot of leading not-so-vague talk as to what all this would ultimately mean. But it’s clear that for a number of “thought leaders” within the MAGA New Right that they have accepted that at some point in the future, they’re going to have to resort to violence to get what they want.
  2. Republicans no longer believe in democracy
    It is now clear that like any good fascists, Republicans no longer believe in democracy unless it’s for the specific purpose of gaining and keeping power. This view of the system they’re supposed to a part of leads them do extremely destabilizing things that help push the country to the brink.
  3. Trump 2024
    Just Trump being the 2024 nominee would, in itself, be enough to cause a civil war at some point in late 2024 – early 2025. He just has a special knack for “owning the libs” in such a way that if he stole in 2024 election and said the “quiet part outloud” that Blue States would grow so enraged that it would be they, not Red States, that left the Union and caused a Second Civil War. But Ron DeSantis is polling exceptionally well at the moment, so either Trump politically shivs him at some point, or he co-ops him, making him his VP, opening the door to DeSantis becoming America’s Putin at some point down the road a little bit.
  4. Steve K Bannon.
    Bannon and his toadies are actively working to destroy the framework that we use to administer free and fair elections. So, it’s very easy to imagine a situation where this gambit works in ways that Trump himself is too idiotic to pull off personally and it will be so egregious that, again, Blue States leave the Union and we have a Second American Civil War.
  5. Extreme negative polarization
    We’re in for a bump four or so years, no matter what, because negative polarization, on a systemic level, has reached a critical mass. When one of your political parties is fascist and would rather crash the global economy instead of even appear to work for the good of the nation — you got a problem.
  6. A lack of shared values
    As the big blow up on Twitter in the last 24 hours about a Stephen Colbert song and dance gag about getting vaccinated proves — we can’t even agree on what’s funny. A combination of this and negative polarization is leading to the United States being two nations, one Red, one Blue and when we get around to attempting to elect the next president, the system simply won’t be prepared for the passions it will stir up.
  7. A potentially historic miscalculation on the part of Republicans
    It’s possible that, much like European powers in the lead up to WW1, when the time comes and Republicans have a choice between peacefully transitioning us into autocracy or fucking with us all so we want to take up arms, they will choose the latter not because they have to, but because they want to. It’s possible that by the 2024 — 2025 period, Republicans will see a civil war as their only choice to consolidate power, even if it’s clear that they could get everything they ever wanted within the system they so obviously loath.

As such, in 2024, Americans will face an existential, stark choice — civil war or autocracy. And if we do have a civil war, it’s going to be hell on earth. Something so tragic and horrifying that in the end both sides will regret it ever happened. I say this because history indicates that wars — civil and otherwise — unleash long-bent up forces that lead to unexpected radicalization on both sides of a conflict.

So, it’s easy to imagine that at some point in any second American Civil War both sides will grow desperate enough to begin using WMD on each other. That, in turn, will cause both sides to grow far more radical. It’s easy to imagine, at least in the South, some sort of race war happening as white MAGA Southerners begin to exterminate black and brown people as some sort of Good Old Boy Final Solution. That, in turn will lead African Americans to fight back en masse, which would be something of a race war.

Macro trends are not on America’s side. As I keep saying, 2024 is going to be it. It’s the year when either the United States turns into a Russian-style “managed democracy” or there’s a civil war. Now, this isn’t going to be a complete list of the 50 states, but I am going to highlight some of the states that may be more problematic should a Second American Civil War erupt.

Oregon
The state is really two states and, as such, is probably going to be a major flashpoint in any Second Civil War. What’s likely to happen is Portland will buck any attempt at a putsch on the part of bonkers Right wing nutjobs in the rest of the state and, as such, either there’s a really blood struggle in the state or there are a massive amount of political refugees from the Portland area as the rest of the state sides with MAGA.

Virginia
Again, this is really two states. There’s the NOVA-Richmond-Hampton Roads urban corridor and everything else. It’s very easy to imagine a situation — especially with Virginia’s historic ties to the first Civil War — where the state implodes as we grow closer and closer to a Second Civil War. Too many good old boys in the rural areas of Virginia might get wrapped up in the “Lost Cause” mythos and decide to seize places like Danville (the last capitol of the Confederacy) or Richmond (another Confederate capitol.) If nothing else, simply because of the larger population of the “Blue” parts of the state, there will be significant violence and political refugees as the Blues consolidate power.

Michigan
I don’t know as much about this state, but it definitely seems as though once the pre-war process of coups and political consolation begins that there will be at least a coup attempt on the part of the Far Right. Again, don’t underestimate how once you actually start murdering people that the dynamics of things change significantly. It’s very possible that there would be a coup in the state, it would fail, and there would be significant political violence as the state’s Blue population fought back and put the state firmly on the Blue side.

New York
Yet again, we have a situation where once politics fails us that the otherwise banal regional differences in a state tears it apart. New York City is far more progressive than the rest of New York State and, depending on how things work out, it’s possible that New York City could become a revolutionary hotbed to the point that is tears itself away from the rest of the state and proclaims itself a Free City. This almost happen during the first Civil War. If nothing else, there will be a serious jiggling of the relationship between NYC and the rest of the state to the point where it aligns itself in any Second Civil War with New Jersey and Connecticut in a way that update New York does not. Or, again, there could be significant political consolidation as Blues from all over the northeast flee to New York and the MAGA-friendly natives of the state flee elsewhere.

Maine
I really don’t know that much about this state other than a vague belief that the northern part of the state is far different than the southern part. It’s very easy to imagine significant consolation in the state one way or another as people flee to it as the rest of the country buckles. The state is big — if sparsely populated — and it’s strategic location near the Canadian border might be enough for it to be the home to large refugee camps.

Texas
Texas would be in an odd situation as the country fell into civil war because its long-term political trend is shifting Blue, but it’s part of the South and a lot of people consider themselves Southern and MAGA. So either it simply buckles into its own intra-civil war or the MAGA cocksucker fucktards push out all the Blues who flee to Blue States nearby. The end result would be a lot of pissed off former Texans who would be of great benefit to the Blue cause.

California
In a sense, the whole fate of the United States rests on what California does. If it simply bolts from the Union, then that significantly hobbles the Blue cause on the ground. California sitting on its hands and become its own nation in the event of a Second Civil War makes it far more likely that either Red states win or there is some sort of half-ass balkanization of the United States. But if California stays and fights, then they could provide not only the necessary economy and population for a Blue state victory — after many, many dead — but also something of a vision for what America would look like after we’re finished bombing ourselves into oblivion.

The Deep South
It’s very easy to imagine at the onset of a Second American Civil War most of the old Confederacy on a political level getting extremely excited and having a massive amount of momentum to either leave the Union outright or support the Republican controlled Congress’ attempt to brazenly steal the election. Then reality would sink in — all of the Southern states have significant African American populations and once politics is no longer a viable method of solving problems then the far more brutal dynamics of realpolitik would kick in. I just can’t imagine millions of African Americans lulzing a return to the Confederacy, no matter how badly the white political establishment of those states may want it. So, even though the South has a lot of people and a big economy, it would be, on a regional basis, too busy fighting a race war to really help the Red cause all that much. If things really grew as radical as I fear they will — probably because WMD are stolen and cities start to get vaporized — it’s the Deep South where you’re most likely to see some WW2 level atrocities as radicalized whites begin to murder blacks en mass.

As for the rest of the states, their ability to pick one side or the other is probably far easier and their biggest problem would be dealing with political refugees.

I still struggle to understand why anyone would want a civil war to begin with — especially MAGA. To get everything they want, all they have to do is be patient. Their efforts at voter suppression combined with demographic trends in the Senate make their dreams of a white Christian ethno state well within reach within a few years.

But, just like the Slave power of yore, it’s possible that MAGA is going to freak out and start a civil war out of sheer frustration and paranoia. That’s when, yet again, the American political psyche will be torn open and we will spend a few years killing each other for political reasons to determine what it means to be American.

2024: Second American War Aims In Red & Blue


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I can’t predict the future. I have no reveled truth. But as I keep saying, in the 2024-2025 timeframe it’s very, very, very likely that either the United States turns into a Russian style managed democracy run by white minority Republicans for generations to come — or there’s a civil war.

But I suspect it might be more of a spectrum, with civil war at one end and autocracy at the other. A lot depends on the specifics of what happens from the moment the Republican nominee is decided until someone is sworn in on January 20th, 2025. Let’s assume, however, that there is a Second American Civil War. What would be the war aims of the two sides?

One thing you have to understand is things are so spinning out of control that in the end, it could be either side that sparks a civil war, depending on how close the election is and how brazen the Republicans are in nullifying any outcome they don’t like. In a sense, the issue is who gets the USA “brand.” Republicans have already made the mental preparations necessary to start running around murdering people for political reasons and by 2024 they will be on a hair trigger to do just that.

I struggle to understand what Reds would want via a civil war when if they were just patient, they could get everything they want through politics. What they want is to turn the United States into Russia with them on top forever.

They are already well on their way to achieving that via gerrymandering, voter suppression and the existence of the Senate. No need to murder anyone for political reasons.

But the issue is — Republicans are impatient and because of the rot within the American political system on a macro level, they’re probably going to just nullify any 2024 election outcome they don’t like. And that will be the thing that sparks a Second American Civil War.

What makes predicting war aims for Red and Blue so difficult at this point is I don’t know who will be the US and who will be the Rebels. It literally could be either side. If Biden wins and manages to overcome Republican nullification attempts, then a number of Red states will attempt to bounce. Or they will simply try to take over the entire country and impose their will on Blue States. I guess their war aims would be to murder all liberals and ensure that white people are in control of the country no matter what.

If Biden loses or “doesn’t win” because Republicans nullify his election, then it will be Blue states who are the Rebels who either try to leave the Union or attempt to get the right to use the USA brand. At this point, for the Blues, everything would hinge on if California wanted to stay in the Union or not. California is so big on an economic and population scale, that it could be the engine for any successful re-imagining of the United States using Blue ideals. Without California, then Reds would have both Texas and Florida to draw upon and would probably successfully win any Second American Civil War. Though, Texas might not be all that stable because it’s shifting towards being a Blue state and it has a big enough minority population that it might just implode before it could help Republicans do much of anything.

And, remember, it’s very likely that WMD will be seized by both sides and we’ll just start nuking the hell out of each other until things that I can’t imagine or predict at this point happen and either the country is re-united one way or another or there’s some sort of long-term balkanization of the former United States.

But make no mistake — we’re fucked. We’re totally, completely fucked and the sooner we all start to take this absolute historical inevitability seriously, the better.

America’s Undead Politics & The Risk Of a Second American Civil War in 2024


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The United States continues to careen towards a very stark choice in 2024: autocracy or civil war. Those will be our only choices. I just don’t see anything happening that will allow us to punt the slow moving political crisis we’re in down the road anymore beyond that.

One big reason I see this being the case is the political talking heads on TV are completely oblivious to what’s really going on with the Republican Party. It’s not dying. It’s not imploding. It’s simply growing more hateful, vicious and autocratic by the moment. It’s nastiness has gone septic and in the end, when push comes to shove, the Republican Party would rather nullify any election they don’t like rather than allow a Democrat to be president.

American politics, American democracy is undead right now. It’s completely non-functioning and it simply will not be able to survive the passions of another presidential cycle. Either we stop being a liberal democracy altogether and become nothing more than an autocratic managed democracy like Russia, or we start murdering each other in cold blood for political reasons.

There is no in-between anymore because the Republican Party knows that because of the browning of America they will either die politically or have to restructure themselves in a pretty massive fashion if we continue to be traditional liberal democracy. Because they’re fucking cowards who love money and power and know they can continue to have both through fear — they are going to destroy the United States one way or another.

So the people on Morning Joe keep grasping for some explanation for why Republicans continue to act and believe the way they do, it’s because they are ignoring the obvious answer: we’re in the quiet before something very, very dramatic happening in our political history in the 2024-2025 timeframe. It’s going to be a massive reset of everything.

Either we fight it out through a civil war of some sort, or we simply turn into an autocracy where we’re governed by a deranged white minority for generations to come. Again, let me stress — there will be no middle ground. Everyone, of every political stripe, will have to pick a side no matter what. It will be an existential choice in the sense that when you make it, you’re going to feel like you’re putting your life, and the lives of everyone you care about, in danger if you pick wrong.

At this point, I still don’t know which path the United States is going to take. But I do know a path will be chosen.

Imagining Life In America During The Second Civil War


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Because the United States is so big and diverse, there really isn’t one simple answer to what life will be like should we descend into civil war instead of autocracy at some point in 2024-2025. So, let’s pick my home state of Virginia and imagine what life will be like in, say, spring 2025 as the civil war started between election night 2024 and January 20th, 2025 rumbles on.

I believe Virginia would be one of the first states to sort its internal political differences out via armed conflict. So, probably what would happen is the conservative portions of the state would simply not recognize any outcome other than a MAGA victory and attempt to join forces with other MAGA parts of the country doing the same thing. But there’s a problem — they just don’t have the numbers.

They may have a lot of guns they want to fuck, but when you’re dealing with armed conflict it’s about population and economy. Being heavily armed helps, but won’t help you in the long run. It’s easy to imagine that once MAGA portions of Virginia essentially secede from the state that they will assemble some sort of organize militia and also be helped by MAGA cocksuckers from other states. This will lead to a very bloody war as the two sides try to figure out who will control the geopolitical entity known as “Virginia.”

This initial situation will lead to a radicalization on both sides. The media will be seized, purged and controlled and any man of fighting age my be impressed into service whether they like it or not. I generally think the Blue parts of Virginia would win such a struggle, but not after significant blood loss. So, let’s say by spring 2025 that particular situation has been settled and Virginia is firmly in the Blue camp.

What might shock us the most is how many political refugees Virginia would be home to and how bad the economy would be. There’s also a slight chance that the environment might be suffering the effects of a Little Death associated with a number of limited nuclear exchanges around the world since the United States imply was not around to prevent different countries from pulling the trigger.

But one upside — though bought with tragedy — would be a lot of political issues would magically be fixed because Virginia (and Blue America) could simply pass the legislation they wanted to because MAGA Republicans weren’t running around being crybabies.

And, yet, there would be some surreal aspects to all of this. Specifically, I’m thinking of how Blue political refugees from Red States might begin to repopulate the now-vacant parts of Red Virginia. This kind of shit happened all the time in Europe after WW2, but for Americans it would be totally alien. This would lead to a disconcerting re-arrangement of Virginia’s demographics.

As I’ve said before, a lot would depend on California. If California stays and fights during any Second American Civil War, then there’s a good chance Blue States would win. But this would not only drag out the war, but make it far more deadly because Red States would probably grow more and more desperate and probably seize WMD.

Then you have the whole issue of growing number of cities across the United States being vaporized, which would only make the two sides more radical and extreme. I generally like Blue States would win but their victory would not be a straight line. It could be that there would be a period of significant balkanization before we managed to put the country back together. Maybe via a Constitutional Convention of some sort?

But if Red States won, I suspect things would get pretty dark pretty quick for states like Virginia. There would be some sort of MAGA Reconstruction that disenfranchised minorities en mass and there would be the creation of an extensive secret police. A lot of people would just flee the country.

A new global era would begin, with American ideas spread across the globe and present everywhere…but America.

Enjoy This Peace & Quiet While You Can, Civil War Or Autocracy Arrives In 2024-2025


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Now that the shock is beginning to wear off for MAGA cocksuckers, they are beginning to plot their return to power. It seems their first goal is to eschew policy goals altogether and to wrap themselves up in the Big Lie of “cancel culture.” Using that to gin up the base, they will win back Congress in 2022 and use THAT as a springboard to nullify any election result in 2024 that doesn’t help them.

As such, 2024-2025 is it. We either shrug and become a Russian-style managed democracy or we take up arms and start murdering each other for political reasons.

It’s easy to imagine a scenario whereby Republicans, once they regain control of Congress in 2022, keep in 2024 and if they can’t strangle Biden’s re-election using voter suppression or highjacking local election boards, simply refuse to certify his Electors in early January 2025. Every step along the way, MAGA will be so astonishingly brazen that the likelihood of political violence will grow and grow until they finally we either have a civil war or we give up and turn into an honest-to-God autocracy.

So, in a sense, we’re going to solve the pressing structural issues of the day that we keep punting down the road one way or another in the 2024-2025 timeframe. Either we solve them threw violence or we solve them politically via an autocracy that does whatever the fuck it wants relative to the existential, abstract fears of MAGA whites you are afraid of being in the minority and women with sexual agency.

As I keep saying, I’m not smart enough to tell you what to do about any of this. I hate guns and violence, so my advice is you either get out of the country while you still can or move to a state whose politics fits your own. But even then, you’re going to have to make a choice at some point.

If there’s a civil war, you’re going to have to make some huge sacrifices so your side can win the war. If there’s an autocracy, you’re going to have to either be a “Good American” who follows the rules or risk your entire life being ruined not from some abstract “cancel culture” but because ICE agent thugs will either push you out a window or throw you in an ICE camp for speaking out against the party line.

I honestly have no idea which direction America is going to pick in 2024-2025, but I do know it will pick a direction.

The Macro Trends Hurtling America Towards Civil War Or Autocracy In 2025


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Here are some of the macro trends that are eating away at our political system such that by the time 2024-2025 rolls around we are faced with a stark choice — civil war or autocracy.

Harding of Political Positions
The two sides are beginning to harden their positions in the wake of Trump. Or, put another way, Republicans have become fucking fascists who hate democracy to the point that no amount of political ratfucking is too craven for them. The recent Georgia Jim Crow 2.0 voting restrictions being a prime example of this. The two sides are now just talking passed each other in any political debate and, as such, our politics is beginning to lock up in fits and starts to the point that by the time 2024 rolls around it will collapse and a sizable portion of the population will see violence as their last recourse.

Miscalculations On Both Sides
Both sides are making some major miscalculations about the other. The Right things that if all else fails they can start murdering people to get what they want –without thinking through the practical implications of such a move. Meanwhile, the Left isn’t really taking the Right’s transition into a bloodthirsty mob seriously and think they can somehow magically get what they want via politics.

The Republicans Are Fascists
MAGA is now full-blown fascism and this subgroup of the Republican Party is dragging the rest of the party with it. So in 2024 there will be a number of different junctures where Republicans will test to see if they can simply nullify Biden’s reelection, no matter what the result. Their thinking will be that given we’ve already come to accept someone can win the popular vote but lose the electoral vote by a hefty margin that people will lulz Republicans “legally” nullifying Biden’s re-election by not certifying the vote in Congress. There could be dueling Electors at this point as well to muddy the waters even more.

Income Disparity
A wide gap between rich and more does not a stable nation make. So, it’s easy to imagine that being another systemic breakdown that will make the nation ripe for some sort of violent event in 2024-2025.

A Glorification Of Civil War By The Right
I know from my webstats that there’s a huge amount of interest in a second American civil war out there in the aether. Some of this, I think, comes from good old boys drinking a Miller Light and smoking a doobie on the back porch gaming out what happens when dem dar libtards try to take away their guns. And some of it is simply, on an abstract level, a glorification of violence in the name of political ends that is extremely poorly thought out and completely detached from reality. What I mean by this is — while I know it fits into the FOX News narrative that the center-Left is a bunch of unredeemable soyboy numales who are so limp wristed they could never fire a gun — in reality it’s human nature that when things grow existential humans do tend to adapt in whatever manner necessary to stay alive.

Notes On A Second American Civil War And Realpolitik For Bloodthirsty MAGA Types


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Anyone — especially a MAGA person — who wants a Second American Civil War is very, very dumb and misguided. MAGA is so fucking bloodthirsty because they’re fucking crybabies who think simply not getting want they want is a form of oppression. Add to this their belief that compromise is weakness and you have recipe for disaster in 2024-2025.

The thing that MAGA is completely oblivious about is the different dynamic between politics and war. With politics, you can screw over people by making it so difficult to vote that they don’t. Or you can control the media narrative such that a lying, racist, misogynistic piece of shit you support gets away scot free with any amount of criminal behavior.

But war is, by definition, existential. And you can be MAGA and have all the fucking guns you want to fuck and in the end you will lose because you just don’t have the things in aggregate to win. Blue States have bigger economies with better educated people — and women likely willing to fight! –than Red States. And, remember, that while the country is pretty much split 50/50 Blue States have more people in smaller spaces and a far more united polity than Red States.

What I mean by that is, the place where Red States would likely draw their most strength from — the old Confederacy — simply isn’t as united on an existential level. All the Jim Crow 2.0 that places like Georgia and Texas are up to now are power politics plays. But they won’t mean shit if things grow life or death.

If there’s a hot civil war and everyone has to take a stand and pick a side on a life-or-death basis this one, all the culture war talking points fate into oblivion and two things will grow very radical on both sides very quickly. All the systemic problems that we just don’t have the political will to fix — guns, racism, sexism, taxes, you name it — will be solved one way or another because the dead hand of history will force us to decide.

Or it could be a lot more messy than that with the United States splitting into countries that hate each other. Or the country could balkanize in a half-ass manner where bigger states like California, Texas and Florida are in various states of independence while the rest of the country is barely hanging on.

But I know there’s nothing I can do to stop MAGA from either running around murdering people like me in 2024 or finally getting their wish as the United States turning into a Russian-style “managed democracy.”

All I can do if there is a civil war is sit back and tell MAGA “I told you so” when suddenly all the globalist cuck soyboys they think they can simply murder turn out to have a lot more spunk than they predicted.

A Second American Civil War & The Congressional Certification Crisis Of 2024


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

On paper, the United States is doomed in 2024. As of right now, there simply is no way that at that point we don’t either become a MAGA managed-democracy autocracy or descend into civil war.

Among the reasons why this is now-nearly a law of nature is it’s almost a certainty that both houses of Congress will flip in 2022 and remain Republican in 2024. As such, the actual vote outcome in 2024 won’t matter. The MAGA Republicans will refuse to certify Biden’s re-election no matter what. Or they’ll do whatever necessary at the state level so his re-election doesn’t even get that far. But the point is — 2024 will be the crossroads.

Will the average American lulz the idea that literally their vote doesn’t count if it isn’t for a Republican or will they take up arms at the injustice. I guess it’s possible Republicans might be the ones taking up arms if THEY don’t get their way, but given how Republicans are becoming bloodthirsty fascists I don’t see how it would come to that. In other words, they will control the process such in 2024 that if they take up arms it will be in the context to reacting to the center-Left doing so rather than taking up arms themselves. Their political goal is to take power before the center-Left knows what hit them.

We long ago established that no matter how many votes you win by, if you lose by one vote in a strategic state you lose the presidency. As such, the next logical step is for us to lulz Congress using its “legal” right to engage in certification nullification. It simply won’t do what it’s otherwise supposed to do because it doesn’t like the outcome.

But, again, that’s where the fork in the road happens.

A lot would depend on if Republicans lost control of the political narrative in some way and people got woke to what was going on. That inability to strike before the narrative was established was Trump’s biggest screw up. If he had gone full autocrat anytime during the summer of 2020 he would still be president right now.

Or even if he had struck in some major way between election night and when the election was called for Biden, he would still be president. He was simple too lazy, too much of a ding-dong to do the hard work of being an autocrat. He thought he could simply rant about it and get what he wanted. The next autocrat in waiting won’t be so dumb.

Anyway, it’s very easy to imagine a situation where Republicans make a major power grab at both the state level and, if that fails them, Congress. They simply refuse to accept the election of a Democrat. Period. Full stop. They might dress this up in a bunch of legal bullshit but the end result would be the same — we would have Republicans in power in Washington for decades to come.

And that’s where I just don’t know. I don’t know the reaction of average Americans. Maybe as long as the economy was going well and freedom of speech wasn’t really touched that much that there might be something of a stalemate at this point. Republicans have “hard” power of making policy and passing laws, while Democrats would have the “soft” power of the media. The only way anything would ever change is when Republicans did something so totally, absolutely indefensible that they were shamed into doing the right thing. Though, of course, Republicans have no shame so that would only work occasionally.

The other option is a civil war. And here’s the thing — under the conditions of war, Blue States are in a far better position to win than Red States. Red States have massive — and growing — political power for various reasons but the moment you shift your metrics from power politics to geopolitical realpolitik then everything changes.

Blue States have biggest populations and economies. They wouldn’t have to worry about a race war. Not only are their economies bigger, but they’re more smaller and more concentrated. But there are a lot of known unknowns. Would would be the leaders of Red and Blue? Who uses stolen WMD, where and why?

Remember, this clusterfuck would not happen in a vacuum. It’s very likely that WW3 would happen in conjunction. A number of limited nuclear exchanges would happen around the world as the United States fell into chaos. What’s more, it’s even possible that a state like the DPRK might lob a few nukes our way just for shits and giggles.

I have no idea if we will chose civil war or autocracy. That’s just too far out into the future for me to know. But I do know that MAGA is so fucking dumb to want a civil war. Very, very dumb. They can get everything they want by at least pretending to work within the confines of liberal democracy.