Glorious American Revolution of 2021 – Page 2

The MAGA New Right Is Ascendant

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The more I think about it, the more it seems a pretty safe bet that the United States is going to slip peacefully into autocracy. The only way this doesn’t happen is if a combination of Trump saying “the quiet part out loud” combined with the general bloodthirstiness of the MAGA New Right pushes into a civil war when Blue States attempt to leave the Union.

Here are some reasons why we won’t have a civil war:

It’s not in our nature to have a civil war.
For all the hateful rhetoric on the part of the MAGA New Right, it’s possible that in the end, they manage to pull off a peaceful transition to autocracy. In fact, at first, at least, the chance from democracy to autocracy could be so subtle that only a few hysterical people like me even notice. For the average person, it will just be a replay of 2000, only worse: it will simply be accepted that the only way a Democrat can become POTUS is if that party also control Congress. People will say “the system worked” and move on.
Republicans have gamed the system.
It could be that by 2024 – 2025 the actual administration of elections will be so corrupt that it will be a fact of life that people shrug and take for granted. It will be the first step towards Americans becoming Russians in that they will no longer feel as though the government expresses the will of the people. And that will be that.
Not Trump 2024
Another reason why we could slip peacefully into autocracy is it’s not Trump who is the Republican nominee, but someone other than Trump. If this is the case, when I honestly don’t see why we would have a civil war. Autocracy is so popular within the United States –and the opposition to it is so weak — that our transition to an actual autocracy will in the end be so easy to pull off that there will be no need to resort to violence. Blue States will get angry, but, lulz, they always get angry, right Mr. Eastman?
Autocracy is very popular in the United States
A sizable portion of the United States’ electorate wants an autocracy. They want one so bad that they seem like a cult to people who aren’t all that thrilled at the prospect of one. So, it’s possible that they will wrap up the transition into autocracy without any violence at all. By the time people realize what they’ve lost, it will be way, way too late. The United States will be nothing more than a Russia clone with an identical political dynamic. There will be a MAGA-themed Constitutional Convention to “pass a balanced budget amendment” and we’ll still have President DeSantis (or whomever) 30 years from now.
Anti-MAGA forces are just too weak willed.
Again, it could be that when push comes to shove, the whole thing will be over before it even starts. There will be a lot of angry tweets on Twitter, but in the end, because Twitter liberals aren’t willing to risk anything in the real world, we slip peacefully into autocracy and that, as they say, will be that.

So much political discourse at the moment is way, way behind the times. So many people are oblivious to how the Republican Party is now a anti-democratic, fascist party and it sees democracy only as a means to an end. As such, if it ever gets power again, it’s debatable if it will ever let it go peacefully.

Here are some reasons why we will have a civil war.

Republicans have come to glorify political violence
Something you see a lot these days within the bullshit echo chamber of the MAGA New Right is the belief that because “liberals won’t leave us alone” that they are being “driven” to extremism. There’s a lot of leading not-so-vague talk as to what all this would ultimately mean. But it’s clear that for a number of “thought leaders” within the MAGA New Right that they have accepted that at some point in the future, they’re going to have to resort to violence to get what they want.
Republicans no longer believe in democracy
It is now clear that like any good fascists, Republicans no longer believe in democracy unless it’s for the specific purpose of gaining and keeping power. This view of the system they’re supposed to a part of leads them do extremely destabilizing things that help push the country to the brink.
Trump 2024
Just Trump being the 2024 nominee would, in itself, be enough to cause a civil war at some point in late 2024 – early 2025. He just has a special knack for “owning the libs” in such a way that if he stole in 2024 election and said the “quiet part outloud” that Blue States would grow so enraged that it would be they, not Red States, that left the Union and caused a Second Civil War. But Ron DeSantis is polling exceptionally well at the moment, so either Trump politically shivs him at some point, or he co-ops him, making him his VP, opening the door to DeSantis becoming America’s Putin at some point down the road a little bit.
Steve K Bannon.
Bannon and his toadies are actively working to destroy the framework that we use to administer free and fair elections. So, it’s very easy to imagine a situation where this gambit works in ways that Trump himself is too idiotic to pull off personally and it will be so egregious that, again, Blue States leave the Union and we have a Second American Civil War.
Extreme negative polarization
We’re in for a bump four or so years, no matter what, because negative polarization, on a systemic level, has reached a critical mass. When one of your political parties is fascist and would rather crash the global economy instead of even appear to work for the good of the nation — you got a problem.
A lack of shared values
As the big blow up on Twitter in the last 24 hours about a Stephen Colbert song and dance gag about getting vaccinated proves — we can’t even agree on what’s funny. A combination of this and negative polarization is leading to the United States being two nations, one Red, one Blue and when we get around to attempting to elect the next president, the system simply won’t be prepared for the passions it will stir up.
A potentially historic miscalculation on the part of Republicans
It’s possible that, much like European powers in the lead up to WW1, when the time comes and Republicans have a choice between peacefully transitioning us into autocracy or fucking with us all so we want to take up arms, they will choose the latter not because they have to, but because they want to. It’s possible that by the 2024 — 2025 period, Republicans will see a civil war as their only choice to consolidate power, even if it’s clear that they could get everything they ever wanted within the system they so obviously loath.

Because the center-Left is so weak and ineffectual, it definitely seems as though Steve K. Bannon’s “spiritual shock troops” will succeed in their administrative coup and if Democrats get past that hurdle, then Republicans will use the more archaic, obscure aspects of the Constitution to nullify any Democratic win.

And remember, autocracy is popular enough that Republicans could, in the end, win fair and square in 2024, without the need to cheat at all. (Not that they won’t cheat anyway.)

As such, the United States will drift peacefully into autocracy. Trump will demand and Constitutional Convention and his hand picked successor will be our first autocrat. So much so, that whomever that may be, will still be in power 20 to 40 years from now. Given that form follows function, all the hysterical predictions that people like me have be ranting about since Trump came on the scene will happen — just about five years later than we expected.

At the moment, I just don’t see us escaping this fate.

In fact, the only doubt I have in my mind of this at this point is it hasn’t happened yet, and, as such, we may pick the other option before us: civil war. But for that to happen, a lot — and I mean A LOT — of unexpected things would have to happen. A lot of Blue leaders would have to bubble to the surface in dramatic, unexpected ways.

But for the time being, I think it’s safe to say we’re going to gradually — after a brief death spasm — morph into a political clone of Russia.

Macro trends are not on America’s side. As I keep saying, 2024 is going to be it. It’s the year when either the United States turns into a Russian-style “managed democracy” or there’s a civil war. Now, this isn’t going to be a complete list of the 50 states, but I am going to highlight some of the states that may be more problematic should a Second American Civil War erupt.

Oregon
The state is really two states and, as such, is probably going to be a major flashpoint in any Second Civil War. What’s likely to happen is Portland will buck any attempt at a putsch on the part of bonkers Right wing nutjobs in the rest of the state and, as such, either there’s a really blood struggle in the state or there are a massive amount of political refugees from the Portland area as the rest of the state sides with MAGA.

Virginia
Again, this is really two states. There’s the NOVA-Richmond-Hampton Roads urban corridor and everything else. It’s very easy to imagine a situation — especially with Virginia’s historic ties to the first Civil War — where the state implodes as we grow closer and closer to a Second Civil War. Too many good old boys in the rural areas of Virginia might get wrapped up in the “Lost Cause” mythos and decide to seize places like Danville (the last capitol of the Confederacy) or Richmond (another Confederate capitol.) If nothing else, simply because of the larger population of the “Blue” parts of the state, there will be significant violence and political refugees as the Blues consolidate power.

Michigan
I don’t know as much about this state, but it definitely seems as though once the pre-war process of coups and political consolation begins that there will be at least a coup attempt on the part of the Far Right. Again, don’t underestimate how once you actually start murdering people that the dynamics of things change significantly. It’s very possible that there would be a coup in the state, it would fail, and there would be significant political violence as the state’s Blue population fought back and put the state firmly on the Blue side.

New York
Yet again, we have a situation where once politics fails us that the otherwise banal regional differences in a state tears it apart. New York City is far more progressive than the rest of New York State and, depending on how things work out, it’s possible that New York City could become a revolutionary hotbed to the point that is tears itself away from the rest of the state and proclaims itself a Free City. This almost happen during the first Civil War. If nothing else, there will be a serious jiggling of the relationship between NYC and the rest of the state to the point where it aligns itself in any Second Civil War with New Jersey and Connecticut in a way that update New York does not. Or, again, there could be significant political consolidation as Blues from all over the northeast flee to New York and the MAGA-friendly natives of the state flee elsewhere.

Maine
I really don’t know that much about this state other than a vague belief that the northern part of the state is far different than the southern part. It’s very easy to imagine significant consolation in the state one way or another as people flee to it as the rest of the country buckles. The state is big — if sparsely populated — and it’s strategic location near the Canadian border might be enough for it to be the home to large refugee camps.

Texas
Texas would be in an odd situation as the country fell into civil war because its long-term political trend is shifting Blue, but it’s part of the South and a lot of people consider themselves Southern and MAGA. So either it simply buckles into its own intra-civil war or the MAGA cocksucker fucktards push out all the Blues who flee to Blue States nearby. The end result would be a lot of pissed off former Texans who would be of great benefit to the Blue cause.

California
In a sense, the whole fate of the United States rests on what California does. If it simply bolts from the Union, then that significantly hobbles the Blue cause on the ground. California sitting on its hands and become its own nation in the event of a Second Civil War makes it far more likely that either Red states win or there is some sort of half-ass balkanization of the United States. But if California stays and fights, then they could provide not only the necessary economy and population for a Blue state victory — after many, many dead — but also something of a vision for what America would look like after we’re finished bombing ourselves into oblivion.

The Deep South
It’s very easy to imagine at the onset of a Second American Civil War most of the old Confederacy on a political level getting extremely excited and having a massive amount of momentum to either leave the Union outright or support the Republican controlled Congress’ attempt to brazenly steal the election. Then reality would sink in — all of the Southern states have significant African American populations and once politics is no longer a viable method of solving problems then the far more brutal dynamics of realpolitik would kick in. I just can’t imagine millions of African Americans lulzing a return to the Confederacy, no matter how badly the white political establishment of those states may want it. So, even though the South has a lot of people and a big economy, it would be, on a regional basis, too busy fighting a race war to really help the Red cause all that much. If things really grew as radical as I fear they will — probably because WMD are stolen and cities start to get vaporized — it’s the Deep South where you’re most likely to see some WW2 level atrocities as radicalized whites begin to murder blacks en mass.

As for the rest of the states, their ability to pick one side or the other is probably far easier and their biggest problem would be dealing with political refugees.

No One Is Going To Save Us

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Jesus Christ, people. I continue to be extremely frustrated by some of the oblivious comments on Twitter about how obvious it is that this or that thing is going to be the thing that stops Trump in his tracks.

Here are some reasons why we will have a civil war.

Republicans have come to glorify political violence
Something you see a lot these days within the bullshit echo chamber of the MAGA New Right is the belief that because “liberals won’t leave us alone” that they are being “driven” to extremism. There’s a lot of leading not-so-vague talk as to what all this would ultimately mean. But it’s clear that for a number of “thought leaders” within the MAGA New Right that they have accepted that at some point in the future, they’re going to have to resort to violence to get what they want.
Republicans no longer believe in democracy
It is now clear that like any good fascists, Republicans no longer believe in democracy unless it’s for the specific purpose of gaining and keeping power. This view of the system they’re supposed to a part of leads them do extremely destabilizing things that help push the country to the brink.
Trump 2024
Just Trump being the 2024 nominee would, in itself, be enough to cause a civil war at some point in late 2024 – early 2025. He just has a special knack for “owning the libs” in such a way that if he stole in 2024 election and said the “quiet part outloud” that Blue States would grow so enraged that it would be they, not Red States, that left the Union and caused a Second Civil War. But Ron DeSantis is polling exceptionally well at the moment, so either Trump politically shivs him at some point, or he co-ops him, making him his VP, opening the door to DeSantis becoming America’s Putin at some point down the road a little bit.
Steve K Bannon.
Bannon and his toadies are actively working to destroy the framework that we use to administer free and fair elections. So, it’s very easy to imagine a situation where this gambit works in ways that Trump himself is too idiotic to pull off personally and it will be so egregious that, again, Blue States leave the Union and we have a Second American Civil War.
Extreme negative polarization
We’re in for a bump four or so years, no matter what, because negative polarization, on a systemic level, has reached a critical mass. When one of your political parties is fascist and would rather crash the global economy instead of even appear to work for the good of the nation — you got a problem.
A lack of shared values
As the big blow up on Twitter in the last 24 hours about a Stephen Colbert song and dance gag about getting vaccinated proves — we can’t even agree on what’s funny. A combination of this and negative polarization is leading to the United States being two nations, one Red, one Blue and when we get around to attempting to elect the next president, the system simply won’t be prepared for the passions it will stir up.
A potentially historic miscalculation on the part of Republicans
It’s possible that, much like European powers in the lead up to WW1, when the time comes and Republicans have a choice between peacefully transitioning us into autocracy or fucking with us all so we want to take up arms, they will choose the latter not because they have to, but because they want to. It’s possible that by the 2024 — 2025 period, Republicans will see a civil war as their only choice to consolidate power, even if it’s clear that they could get everything they ever wanted within the system they so obviously loath.

The issue is, Trump is nothing more than an avatar. He is a symptom of a far broader and deeper systemic problem that is eating away at the American Republic. If you somehow magically ended Trump’s political career, there are a half dozen would-be autocrats chomping at the bit to do exactly the same thing he wants to do, and probably do a better job of it.

As I keep writing over and over again, at this point we’re so far past the Even Horizon of a very turbulent 2024 – 2025 that the issue is not how we “stop” Trump, the issue is do we slip peacefully into autocracy or do we bomb ourselves into oblivion.

That’s it. You can my thoughts on our future “hysterical” and “doom shit,” but I’m just looking at what is self-evident in front of me — and you. We are no longer in a functioning democracy. We’re an autocracy without an autocrat. For us to swiftly turn into an autocracy, all we need is a Republican to be president again. That’s it. It doesn’t matter who it is, they’re going to be an autocrat because our democratic institutions are either weak or non existent to the point that if you’re a Republican and you have the wherewithal to become president, you’re going to be an autocrat.

Here are some reasons why we won’t have a civil war:

It’s not in our nature to have a civil war.
For all the hateful rhetoric on the part of the MAGA New Right, it’s possible that in the end, they manage to pull off a peaceful transition to autocracy. In fact, at first, at least, the chance from democracy to autocracy could be so subtle that only a few hysterical people like me even notice. For the average person, it will just be a replay of 2000, only worse: it will simply be accepted that the only way a Democrat can become POTUS is if that party also control Congress. People will say “the system worked” and move on.
Republicans have gamed the system.
It could be that by 2024 – 2025 the actual administration of elections will be so corrupt that it will be a fact of life that people shrug and take for granted. It will be the first step towards Americans becoming Russians in that they will no longer feel as though the government expresses the will of the people. And that will be that.
Not Trump 2024
Another reason why we could slip peacefully into autocracy is it’s not Trump who is the Republican nominee, but someone other than Trump. If this is the case, when I honestly don’t see why we would have a civil war. Autocracy is so popular within the United States –and the opposition to it is so weak — that our transition to an actual autocracy will in the end be so easy to pull off that there will be no need to resort to violence. Blue States will get angry, but, lulz, they always get angry, right Mr. Eastman?
Autocracy is very popular in the United States
A sizable portion of the United States’ electorate wants an autocracy. They want one so bad that they seem like a cult to people who aren’t all that thrilled at the prospect of one. So, it’s possible that they will wrap up the transition into autocracy without any violence at all. By the time people realize what they’ve lost, it will be way, way too late. The United States will be nothing more than a Russia clone with an identical political dynamic. There will be a MAGA-themed Constitutional Convention to “pass a balanced budget amendment” and we’ll still have President DeSantis (or whomever) 30 years from now.
Anti-MAGA forces are just too weak willed.
Again, it could be that when push comes to shove, the whole thing will be over before it even starts. There will be a lot of angry tweets on Twitter, but in the end, because Twitter liberals aren’t willing to risk anything in the real world, we slip peacefully into autocracy and that, as they say, will be that.

I say this because Trump is the Republican Party and the Republican Party is Trump. And, if you really wanted to get all nitty-gritty about it, the dozen or so would-be successors of Trump know that he, personally, is the Republican presidential primary and they want him to pick them as his veep so they can succeed him and become America’s Putin.

At this point, the only reason why I have any doubt that we’re going to slip peacefully into autocracy is I can’t predict the future and, as such, because it hasn’t happened yet, there is still a chance it might not.

But all the other options before us aren’t all that great, either. The other main option is a very violent, destructive and catastrophic civil war. There’s also a small chance that we might have some sort of military junta. The issue is that enjoy these last few months of “normal” life in America.

Starting in 2023 when Congress is probably going to flip and the Time of Troubles will begin — with the only issue being how dark things are going to be.

Anyway, we just have to accept we live in a New Normal. The traditional norms and rules of a Western democracy that we’ve come to accept are no longer functioning as we assume they should.

As for the rest of the states, their ability to pick one side or the other is probably far easier and their biggest problem would be dealing with political refugees.

‘Red Exile’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’ve spent a lot of time ranting about how we’re going to slip peacefully into autocracy and gradually Blues will “vote with their feet” and flee the United States for various parts of the world.

Well, let’s imagine the other option happens — we have a Second American Civil War and, somehow, Blue States win. Where would Reds go once a Blue Reconstruction of Red States began?

The fact that massive numbers of Reds would leave America in the wake of a Reds losing a 2ACW is not something that is obvious. But a small number of unreconstructed Southerners fled to Brazil after the First Civil War, so it makes a lot of sense that the same thing — but on a massive scale — would happen if somehow, someway, Blue States are able to push through all the WMD being used against them and succeed in winning a 2ACW.

Here are some reasons why we will have a civil war.

Republicans have come to glorify political violence
Something you see a lot these days within the bullshit echo chamber of the MAGA New Right is the belief that because “liberals won’t leave us alone” that they are being “driven” to extremism. There’s a lot of leading not-so-vague talk as to what all this would ultimately mean. But it’s clear that for a number of “thought leaders” within the MAGA New Right that they have accepted that at some point in the future, they’re going to have to resort to violence to get what they want.
Republicans no longer believe in democracy
It is now clear that like any good fascists, Republicans no longer believe in democracy unless it’s for the specific purpose of gaining and keeping power. This view of the system they’re supposed to a part of leads them do extremely destabilizing things that help push the country to the brink.
Trump 2024
Just Trump being the 2024 nominee would, in itself, be enough to cause a civil war at some point in late 2024 – early 2025. He just has a special knack for “owning the libs” in such a way that if he stole in 2024 election and said the “quiet part outloud” that Blue States would grow so enraged that it would be they, not Red States, that left the Union and caused a Second Civil War. But Ron DeSantis is polling exceptionally well at the moment, so either Trump politically shivs him at some point, or he co-ops him, making him his VP, opening the door to DeSantis becoming America’s Putin at some point down the road a little bit.
Steve K Bannon.
Bannon and his toadies are actively working to destroy the framework that we use to administer free and fair elections. So, it’s very easy to imagine a situation where this gambit works in ways that Trump himself is too idiotic to pull off personally and it will be so egregious that, again, Blue States leave the Union and we have a Second American Civil War.
Extreme negative polarization
We’re in for a bump four or so years, no matter what, because negative polarization, on a systemic level, has reached a critical mass. When one of your political parties is fascist and would rather crash the global economy instead of even appear to work for the good of the nation — you got a problem.
A lack of shared values
As the big blow up on Twitter in the last 24 hours about a Stephen Colbert song and dance gag about getting vaccinated proves — we can’t even agree on what’s funny. A combination of this and negative polarization is leading to the United States being two nations, one Red, one Blue and when we get around to attempting to elect the next president, the system simply won’t be prepared for the passions it will stir up.
A potentially historic miscalculation on the part of Republicans
It’s possible that, much like European powers in the lead up to WW1, when the time comes and Republicans have a choice between peacefully transitioning us into autocracy or fucking with us all so we want to take up arms, they will choose the latter not because they have to, but because they want to. It’s possible that by the 2024 — 2025 period, Republicans will see a civil war as their only choice to consolidate power, even if it’s clear that they could get everything they ever wanted within the system they so obviously loath.

It would make a lot of sense that there would be a huge wave of Reds that poured into Canada at first. This would happen in conjunction to Reds — potentially escaping justice — would just hop on whatever international flight they could find and go somewhere, anywhere, rather than face the music.

Once the Reds realized that Canada is far more center-Left than they would prefer, they would begin to leave for other parts of the globe. The most obvious destination for all these Reds would be Latin America. Given how much they hate people from Latin America, this would be yet another historical irony.

Of course, there are other places Reds might flee. They might go to Australia or Great Britain. Or they might, in their blind panic to get away from a newly democratic America, go to Russia, thinking they might finally get to live in the glorious white Christian ethno state they just fought so hard for.

But the point of all of this is — no matter what option America picks, autocracy or civil war, millions of Americans are probably going to flee to the four corners of the globe.

As for the rest of the states, their ability to pick one side or the other is probably far easier and their biggest problem would be dealing with political refugees.

‘Upcoming US Civil War’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

At the moment, I don’t think there’s going to be a Second American Civil War. I think we’re going to slip peacefully into autocracy after a brief death spasm in the general 2024 – 2025 timeframe. Trump, enabled by the entire Republican Party, will steal the 2024 election in broad daylight.

Here are some reasons why we won’t have a civil war:

It’s not in our nature to have a civil war.
For all the hateful rhetoric on the part of the MAGA New Right, it’s possible that in the end, they manage to pull off a peaceful transition to autocracy. In fact, at first, at least, the chance from democracy to autocracy could be so subtle that only a few hysterical people like me even notice. For the average person, it will just be a replay of 2000, only worse: it will simply be accepted that the only way a Democrat can become POTUS is if that party also control Congress. People will say “the system worked” and move on.
Republicans have gamed the system.
It could be that by 2024 – 2025 the actual administration of elections will be so corrupt that it will be a fact of life that people shrug and take for granted. It will be the first step towards Americans becoming Russians in that they will no longer feel as though the government expresses the will of the people. And that will be that.
Not Trump 2024
Another reason why we could slip peacefully into autocracy is it’s not Trump who is the Republican nominee, but someone other than Trump. If this is the case, when I honestly don’t see why we would have a civil war. Autocracy is so popular within the United States –and the opposition to it is so weak — that our transition to an actual autocracy will in the end be so easy to pull off that there will be no need to resort to violence. Blue States will get angry, but, lulz, they always get angry, right Mr. Eastman?
Autocracy is very popular in the United States
A sizable portion of the United States’ electorate wants an autocracy. They want one so bad that they seem like a cult to people who aren’t all that thrilled at the prospect of one. So, it’s possible that they will wrap up the transition into autocracy without any violence at all. By the time people realize what they’ve lost, it will be way, way too late. The United States will be nothing more than a Russia clone with an identical political dynamic. There will be a MAGA-themed Constitutional Convention to “pass a balanced budget amendment” and we’ll still have President DeSantis (or whomever) 30 years from now.
Anti-MAGA forces are just too weak willed.
Again, it could be that when push comes to shove, the whole thing will be over before it even starts. There will be a lot of angry tweets on Twitter, but in the end, because Twitter liberals aren’t willing to risk anything in the real world, we slip peacefully into autocracy and that, as they say, will be that.

Trump will begin the process of changing the Constitution so he can stay in power for as long as he likes, but it will ultimately be his hand picked successor who enjoys this new power. At the moment, it could be anyone from DeSantis to Flynn who becomes America’s first true autocrat and stays in power for decades. But there will be consequences to the MAGA New Right catching the car.

A multitude of center-Left people will leave the country at an alarming rate, to the point that our autocrat is forced to make it nearly impossible to leave the country at some point. The “enemy of the people” media will be purged and ICE will be weaponized so people like me are “re-educated” or worse. The country will grow weaker and poorer, “bringing the boys home” and hiding behind Fortress America. Just as this is happening, China will rise and they will peacefully replace the United States as the most powerful nation in the world. The United States, on a political basis, will become an autocratic clone of Russia.

I can’t predict the future, but that definitely seems as though that’s a pretty good scenario to explain our immediate future history.

And, yet, there remains a lingering greater-than-zero possibility that the MAGA New Right is so bloodthirsty that they could self-own on a pretty massive scale. There is a chance that Trump, unto himself, could be the historical thing that pushes us not into autocracy, but civil war. It could be that Trump’s tendency to “say the quiet part outloud” could so rile up Blue States that we have a civil war, even though otherwise we wouldn’t.

Here are some reasons why we will have a civil war.

Republicans have come to glorify political violence
Something you see a lot these days within the bullshit echo chamber of the MAGA New Right is the belief that because “liberals won’t leave us alone” that they are being “driven” to extremism. There’s a lot of leading not-so-vague talk as to what all this would ultimately mean. But it’s clear that for a number of “thought leaders” within the MAGA New Right that they have accepted that at some point in the future, they’re going to have to resort to violence to get what they want.
Republicans no longer believe in democracy
It is now clear that like any good fascists, Republicans no longer believe in democracy unless it’s for the specific purpose of gaining and keeping power. This view of the system they’re supposed to a part of leads them do extremely destabilizing things that help push the country to the brink.
Trump 2024
Just Trump being the 2024 nominee would, in itself, be enough to cause a civil war at some point in late 2024 – early 2025. He just has a special knack for “owning the libs” in such a way that if he stole in 2024 election and said the “quiet part outloud” that Blue States would grow so enraged that it would be they, not Red States, that left the Union and caused a Second Civil War. But Ron DeSantis is polling exceptionally well at the moment, so either Trump politically shivs him at some point, or he co-ops him, making him his VP, opening the door to DeSantis becoming America’s Putin at some point down the road a little bit.
Steve K Bannon.
Bannon and his toadies are actively working to destroy the framework that we use to administer free and fair elections. So, it’s very easy to imagine a situation where this gambit works in ways that Trump himself is too idiotic to pull off personally and it will be so egregious that, again, Blue States leave the Union and we have a Second American Civil War.
Extreme negative polarization
We’re in for a bump four or so years, no matter what, because negative polarization, on a systemic level, has reached a critical mass. When one of your political parties is fascist and would rather crash the global economy instead of even appear to work for the good of the nation — you got a problem.
A lack of shared values
As the big blow up on Twitter in the last 24 hours about a Stephen Colbert song and dance gag about getting vaccinated proves — we can’t even agree on what’s funny. A combination of this and negative polarization is leading to the United States being two nations, one Red, one Blue and when we get around to attempting to elect the next president, the system simply won’t be prepared for the passions it will stir up.
A potentially historic miscalculation on the part of Republicans
It’s possible that, much like European powers in the lead up to WW1, when the time comes and Republicans have a choice between peacefully transitioning us into autocracy or fucking with us all so we want to take up arms, they will choose the latter not because they have to, but because they want to. It’s possible that by the 2024 — 2025 period, Republicans will see a civil war as their only choice to consolidate power, even if it’s clear that they could get everything they ever wanted within the system they so obviously loath.

A modern civil war in the United States would be a catastrophe. The country is awash with various forms of WMD and it’s very easy to imagine that Red States, when confronted with they can’t win a civil war just by being mad all the time, will turn to WMD to make their point. The most powerful nation in the world will promptly bomb itself into the Stone Age.

And while we’re doing that, globally, WW3 will take place and billions will die as a result of various limited nuclear exchanges.

Then the question becomes — what does the world look like when we come out the other side of this clusterfuck? Do we unite because of our common humanity or do we just let ourselves cook?

Of course, there is the other option of some sort of military junta in the United States, but that’s something I suspect only works on paper.

Anyway, it could go either way. Enjoy these last few twilight months of normal life while you can.

As for the rest of the states, their ability to pick one side or the other is probably far easier and their biggest problem would be dealing with political refugees.

‘Is US Civil War Coming?’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing about this question, which people keep asking and thus leads them to this otherwise rarely viewed Website, is you’re asking a macro question that at the moment has a variety of potential answers.

In other words, at the moment, I don’t know.

Here are some reasons why we won’t have a civil war:

It’s not in our nature to have a civil war.
For all the hateful rhetoric on the part of the MAGA New Right, it’s possible that in the end, they manage to pull off a peaceful transition to autocracy. In fact, at first, at least, the chance from democracy to autocracy could be so subtle that only a few hysterical people like me even notice. For the average person, it will just be a replay of 2000, only worse: it will simply be accepted that the only way a Democrat can become POTUS is if that party also control Congress. People will say “the system worked” and move on.
Republicans have gamed the system.
It could be that by 2024 – 2025 the actual administration of elections will be so corrupt that it will be a fact of life that people shrug and take for granted. It will be the first step towards Americans becoming Russians in that they will no longer feel as though the government expresses the will of the people. And that will be that.
Not Trump 2024
Another reason why we could slip peacefully into autocracy is it’s not Trump who is the Republican nominee, but someone other than Trump. If this is the case, when I honestly don’t see why we would have a civil war. Autocracy is so popular within the United States –and the opposition to it is so weak — that our transition to an actual autocracy will in the end be so easy to pull off that there will be no need to resort to violence. Blue States will get angry, but, lulz, they always get angry, right Mr. Eastman?
Autocracy is very popular in the United States
A sizable portion of the United States’ electorate wants an autocracy. They want one so bad that they seem like a cult to people who aren’t all that thrilled at the prospect of one. So, it’s possible that they will wrap up the transition into autocracy without any violence at all. By the time people realize what they’ve lost, it will be way, way too late. The United States will be nothing more than a Russia clone with an identical political dynamic. There will be a MAGA-themed Constitutional Convention to “pass a balanced budget amendment” and we’ll still have President DeSantis (or whomever) 30 years from now.
Anti-MAGA forces are just too weak willed.
Again, it could be that when push comes to shove, the whole thing will be over before it even starts. There will be a lot of angry tweets on Twitter, but in the end, because Twitter liberals aren’t willing to risk anything in the real world, we slip peacefully into autocracy and that, as they say, will be that.

I don’t know because the MAGA New Right is ascendant. It has it well within its means to secure what it wants — an autocracy — without firing a shot. The center-Left is completely oblivious and flatfooted at the moment with few — if any — ready leaders with the spine to do what is necessary to stop our otherwise peaceful slide into a fascist autocracy.

So, all things being equal, there’s every reason to believe that after one last death spasm in the 2024 – 2025 timeframe, American democracy will die and we’ll just have Republican autocrats for generations. The United States and Russia will gradually become political clones. ICE will be weaponized. The “enemy of the people” media will be purged. There will be a Constitutional Convention that will radically change the nature of our government.

Then thousands — millions? — of center-Left people will vote with their feet by leaving the country, taking their skills and money with them. Soon enough, because form follows function, our autocrat will freak out and make it nearly impossible for anyone to leave the country. The ICE camps will grow in size with “libtards” who will, at last, be owned.

There will be the occasional mass protest, but we won’t hear anything about it domestically, having to rely upon the foreign press to tell us what’s going on in our country.

At the moment, that definitely seems to be our fate. There will be no civil war and all the people who looked forward to an autocracy will lulz it all until it becomes personal and they suddenly and abruptly, wake up to how wrong they all go it. But, by that point, it will be way, way too late.

And, yet, there remain indications that the MAGA New Right is going to massively self-own and start a civil war because their movement has become so fucking bloodthirsty that they go out of their way to force Blue States to see things on an existential level. Blue Leaders will be begin to bubble up to the surface out of sheer desperation.

Here are some reasons why we will have a civil war.

Republicans have come to glorify political violence
Something you see a lot these days within the bullshit echo chamber of the MAGA New Right is the belief that because “liberals won’t leave us alone” that they are being “driven” to extremism. There’s a lot of leading not-so-vague talk as to what all this would ultimately mean. But it’s clear that for a number of “thought leaders” within the MAGA New Right that they have accepted that at some point in the future, they’re going to have to resort to violence to get what they want.
Republicans no longer believe in democracy
It is now clear that like any good fascists, Republicans no longer believe in democracy unless it’s for the specific purpose of gaining and keeping power. This view of the system they’re supposed to a part of leads them do extremely destabilizing things that help push the country to the brink.
Trump 2024
Just Trump being the 2024 nominee would, in itself, be enough to cause a civil war at some point in late 2024 – early 2025. He just has a special knack for “owning the libs” in such a way that if he stole in 2024 election and said the “quiet part outloud” that Blue States would grow so enraged that it would be they, not Red States, that left the Union and caused a Second Civil War. But Ron DeSantis is polling exceptionally well at the moment, so either Trump politically shivs him at some point, or he co-ops him, making him his VP, opening the door to DeSantis becoming America’s Putin at some point down the road a little bit.
Steve K Bannon.
Bannon and his toadies are actively working to destroy the framework that we use to administer free and fair elections. So, it’s very easy to imagine a situation where this gambit works in ways that Trump himself is too idiotic to pull off personally and it will be so egregious that, again, Blue States leave the Union and we have a Second American Civil War.
Extreme negative polarization
We’re in for a bump four or so years, no matter what, because negative polarization, on a systemic level, has reached a critical mass. When one of your political parties is fascist and would rather crash the global economy instead of even appear to work for the good of the nation — you got a problem.
A lack of shared values
As the big blow up on Twitter in the last 24 hours about a Stephen Colbert song and dance gag about getting vaccinated proves — we can’t even agree on what’s funny. A combination of this and negative polarization is leading to the United States being two nations, one Red, one Blue and when we get around to attempting to elect the next president, the system simply won’t be prepared for the passions it will stir up.
A potentially historic miscalculation on the part of Republicans
It’s possible that, much like European powers in the lead up to WW1, when the time comes and Republicans have a choice between peacefully transitioning us into autocracy or fucking with us all so we want to take up arms, they will choose the latter not because they have to, but because they want to. It’s possible that by the 2024 — 2025 period, Republicans will see a civil war as their only choice to consolidate power, even if it’s clear that they could get everything they ever wanted within the system they so obviously loath.

Then, soon enough, WMD will be seized and used and we bomb ourselves into the Stone Age with our eyes wide open. WW3 happens in conjunction with this because the United States is too busy bombing itself into oblivion to do anything about keeping the previously peaceful post-WW2 liberal order intact. Then the question becomes, who wins the Second American Civil War and what does the world look like when we reach the end of the conflict?

I continue to lean towards believing we’re not going to have a civil war. And, yet, Trump, unto himself, could be so stupid that he forces us into an avoidable tragedy, destroying any chance he had of being our first autocrat. Though, to be more clear, Trump would be a proto-autocrat.

Whomever he picked to be his successor would be the person who actually finally throttled American democracy. There are about a dozen craven would-be autocratic successors to Trump who are all chomping at the bit to be our first autocrat because they know they will become not only the most powerful president in our history, but the wealthiest, as well.

There is a third option, that of a military junta, but that is something that I think is only possible on paper. Not even the military will be spared if we have a civil war.

Anyway, while I’m still up in the air as to what America’s fate will ultimately be, I do know that this is the twilight of the Second Republic, which was established at the end of the First Civil War. Only time will tell if we drift into autocracy or if a Third Republic is founded on the ashes of the Second.

As for the rest of the states, their ability to pick one side or the other is probably far easier and their biggest problem would be dealing with political refugees.

Red October: What Is To Be Done

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I struggle to understand the thinking of people who poo-poo my belief that Something Dark is going to happen to the United States between now and January 2025. I struggle to understand what they see that I can’t.

One possible explanation is they’ve already made the cognitive leap to accepting autocracy. They see Trump’s autocratic leanings strictly through the lends of tactical policy and an overreaction from people like me who reduce to “Orange Man Bad.” They look forward to what, in effect, would be an autocracy and they lulz the whole thing.

They will be getting the America they want and fuck you, lib.

Another explanation is the people who roll their eyes at my growing concern just don’t look at the world in the same way I do. They’re not Very Online and they’re so busy raising their kids and paying their mortgage that the idea that the United States would longer be a democracy is just not something they can process. Or, if they try, then they fall back to the old saw that the United States isn’t a democracy, but rather a constitutional representative republic.

This rationalization will serve them well when, using the quirks of the Constitution, the Republicans manage to stay within the letter of the law, but not its spirit. For them, the dusty portions of the Constitution that Republicans will use to nullify any Democrat becoming president will give them enough cover to shrug and be Good Americans.

Here are some reasons why we won’t have a civil war:

It’s not in our nature to have a civil war.
For all the hateful rhetoric on the part of the MAGA New Right, it’s possible that in the end, they manage to pull off a peaceful transition to autocracy. In fact, at first, at least, the chance from democracy to autocracy could be so subtle that only a few hysterical people like me even notice. For the average person, it will just be a replay of 2000, only worse: it will simply be accepted that the only way a Democrat can become POTUS is if that party also control Congress. People will say “the system worked” and move on.
Republicans have gamed the system.
It could be that by 2024 – 2025 the actual administration of elections will be so corrupt that it will be a fact of life that people shrug and take for granted. It will be the first step towards Americans becoming Russians in that they will no longer feel as though the government expresses the will of the people. And that will be that.
Not Trump 2024
Another reason why we could slip peacefully into autocracy is it’s not Trump who is the Republican nominee, but someone other than Trump. If this is the case, when I honestly don’t see why we would have a civil war. Autocracy is so popular within the United States –and the opposition to it is so weak — that our transition to an actual autocracy will in the end be so easy to pull off that there will be no need to resort to violence. Blue States will get angry, but, lulz, they always get angry, right Mr. Eastman?
Autocracy is very popular in the United States
A sizable portion of the United States’ electorate wants an autocracy. They want one so bad that they seem like a cult to people who aren’t all that thrilled at the prospect of one. So, it’s possible that they will wrap up the transition into autocracy without any violence at all. By the time people realize what they’ve lost, it will be way, way too late. The United States will be nothing more than a Russia clone with an identical political dynamic. There will be a MAGA-themed Constitutional Convention to “pass a balanced budget amendment” and we’ll still have President DeSantis (or whomever) 30 years from now.
Anti-MAGA forces are just too weak willed.
Again, it could be that when push comes to shove, the whole thing will be over before it even starts. There will be a lot of angry tweets on Twitter, but in the end, because Twitter liberals aren’t willing to risk anything in the real world, we slip peacefully into autocracy and that, as they say, will be that.

Not until our new Republican autocrat begins to consolidate power and their, specific life begins to be harmed on a personal level will they sit up and take notice. Then, of course, it will be way too late and they will complain in private about how how wrong they got it. While people like, me of course, will be dead at the hand of an ICE agent. Lulz!

Remember, we’re dealing with macro historical trends. Everyone sees the whole differently because what’s going on is just too big. But it definitely seems as though what’s going on in the United States is precursor to a pretty huge shift in American life.

At the moment, I’m very much in the peaceful transition to autocracy camp. But occasionally, there are pings from a far darker future that make me sit up and take notice. Take, for instance, this:

When more people end up dead because of the lies people like @charliekirk11 are spreading, they need to be held accountable. Republicans are legitimately asking “When do we get to start killing people?” It doesn’t matter if they denounce violence. Their lies are inspiring it. pic.twitter.com/6snVbR1OWg
— Sayre Peterson (@sayre26) October 26, 2021

Add to such rhetoric the continued grumbling by MAGA New Right “thought leaders” that liberals just won’t leave them alone and, as such are “driving them” to violence and it makes you wonder. Is it possible that in the end, when given the opportunity to peacefully get everything they want, that the MAGA New Right will be so fucking bloodthirsty that they will push the country into a tragic and avoidable civil war?

Here are some reasons why we will have a civil war.

Republicans have come to glorify political violence
Something you see a lot these days within the bullshit echo chamber of the MAGA New Right is the belief that because “liberals won’t leave us alone” that they are being “driven” to extremism. There’s a lot of leading not-so-vague talk as to what all this would ultimately mean. But it’s clear that for a number of “thought leaders” within the MAGA New Right that they have accepted that at some point in the future, they’re going to have to resort to violence to get what they want.
Republicans no longer believe in democracy
It is now clear that like any good fascists, Republicans no longer believe in democracy unless it’s for the specific purpose of gaining and keeping power. This view of the system they’re supposed to a part of leads them do extremely destabilizing things that help push the country to the brink.
Trump 2024
Just Trump being the 2024 nominee would, in itself, be enough to cause a civil war at some point in late 2024 – early 2025. He just has a special knack for “owning the libs” in such a way that if he stole in 2024 election and said the “quiet part outloud” that Blue States would grow so enraged that it would be they, not Red States, that left the Union and caused a Second Civil War. But Ron DeSantis is polling exceptionally well at the moment, so either Trump politically shivs him at some point, or he co-ops him, making him his VP, opening the door to DeSantis becoming America’s Putin at some point down the road a little bit.
Steve K Bannon.
Bannon and his toadies are actively working to destroy the framework that we use to administer free and fair elections. So, it’s very easy to imagine a situation where this gambit works in ways that Trump himself is too idiotic to pull off personally and it will be so egregious that, again, Blue States leave the Union and we have a Second American Civil War.
Extreme negative polarization
We’re in for a bump four or so years, no matter what, because negative polarization, on a systemic level, has reached a critical mass. When one of your political parties is fascist and would rather crash the global economy instead of even appear to work for the good of the nation — you got a problem.
A lack of shared values
As the big blow up on Twitter in the last 24 hours about a Stephen Colbert song and dance gag about getting vaccinated proves — we can’t even agree on what’s funny. A combination of this and negative polarization is leading to the United States being two nations, one Red, one Blue and when we get around to attempting to elect the next president, the system simply won’t be prepared for the passions it will stir up.
A potentially historic miscalculation on the part of Republicans
It’s possible that, much like European powers in the lead up to WW1, when the time comes and Republicans have a choice between peacefully transitioning us into autocracy or fucking with us all so we want to take up arms, they will choose the latter not because they have to, but because they want to. It’s possible that by the 2024 — 2025 period, Republicans will see a civil war as their only choice to consolidate power, even if it’s clear that they could get everything they ever wanted within the system they so obviously loath.

At the moment, I just don’t know. It could definitely go either way, even though I, personally, think we’re going to avoid a civil war. But I do enjoy running that particular scenario because it makes my abstract fears about political violence concrete and, as such, easier to process.

Some of my uncertainty comes from we’re just too far out from the main event. Usually big historical events, once they happen, are actually decided on a very specific tactical basis. So, going in to the certain to be unstable 2023 – 2025 timeframe, things really can go either way.

It won’t be until Trump makes up his mind about running again or how many times Biden and Harris are impeached by the soon-to-be Republican Congress that we can begin to get a better handle on which direction we’re going to go. So, I can totally see why someone might think I’m full of shit to rant so much about the civil war scenario.

But they are fooling themselves if they think the United States is going to remain a functioning democracy, or even a “constitutional representative republic.” An autocracy is not a republic. And that’s what we’re going to be the moment a Republican becomes president again — an autocracy.

The reason I’m so certain about this is multifold, but boils down to two self-evident metrics. One, autocracy is very popular with a pretty big portion of the electorate. And, two, Trump has made it clear to any Republican worth their mettle that our democratic institutions are undead.

Put those two together and we’re going to become an autocracy sooner rather than later. And the weakest moment for the autocracy will be the moment of its conception — at some point in late 2024 or early 2025. If it becomes clear that Republicans are going to transition us into autocracy and, well, nothing happens, then that will be that .But if Blue States take a stand and start to leave the Union, then we enter a high risk, high reward situation.

And I honestly don’t know which one we’re going to choice. There is the third, far less likely option of military junta, but that’s something that at the moment is something that is only possible theoretically on paper.

But the fact remains — enjoy these final twilight months of traditional American life. The moment Republicans have any Federal power again, some pretty big events will happen one way or another. Either you’re complicit in the rise of fascist autocracy, or you’re not. The choice is up to you.

As for the rest of the states, their ability to pick one side or the other is probably far easier and their biggest problem would be dealing with political refugees.

‘Will There Be A Civil War In USA?’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

When talking about the United States’ fate, we’re now dealing with huge, sweeping historic metrics that no one person can change — except maybe Donald Trump. We’re dealing with a number of huge structural issues in this nation of 335 million people. There are no easy solutions or answers.

But as for the question of a Second American Civil War happening, I would it’s actually one of three prospective options facing us — civil war, autocracy or military junta.

Or, put another way, we’re too far out from the point in time I would suspect we’re going to have some sort of existential crisis before us, which would be around 2024 – 2025. At the moment, it really could go either way. It’s just as easy to make the case that we’ll have a civil war as it is to make the case that we’ll simply slip peacefully into an autocracy such is found in modern Russia.

In fact, I would go so far as to say if we do have a civil war, it will be because the people who should know better — the MAGA New Right — was so consumed at the bloodthirsty prospect of sucking its own cock in order to “own the libs” that they totally fucked up what would otherwise be a historical gimmie: the nation’s gradual transition into autocracy.

Here are some reasons why we won’t have a civil war:

It’s not in our nature to have a civil war.
For all the hateful rhetoric on the part of the MAGA New Right, it’s possible that in the end, they manage to pull off a peaceful transition to autocracy. In fact, at first, at least, the chance from democracy to autocracy could be so subtle that only a few hysterical people like me even notice. For the average person, it will just be a replay of 2000, only worse: it will simply be accepted that the only way a Democrat can become POTUS is if that party also control Congress. People will say “the system worked” and move on.
Republicans have gamed the system.
It could be that by 2024 – 2025 the actual administration of elections will be so corrupt that it will be a fact of life that people shrug and take for granted. It will be the first step towards Americans becoming Russians in that they will no longer feel as though the government expresses the will of the people. And that will be that.
Not Trump 2024
Another reason why we could slip peacefully into autocracy is it’s not Trump who is the Republican nominee, but someone other than Trump. If this is the case, when I honestly don’t see why we would have a civil war. Autocracy is so popular within the United States –and the opposition to it is so weak — that our transition to an actual autocracy will in the end be so easy to pull off that there will be no need to resort to violence. Blue States will get angry, but, lulz, they always get angry, right Mr. Eastman?
Autocracy is very popular in the United States
A sizable portion of the United States’ electorate wants an autocracy. They want one so bad that they seem like a cult to people who aren’t all that thrilled at the prospect of one. So, it’s possible that they will wrap up the transition into autocracy without any violence at all. By the time people realize what they’ve lost, it will be way, way too late. The United States will be nothing more than a Russia clone with an identical political dynamic. There will be a MAGA-themed Constitutional Convention to “pass a balanced budget amendment” and we’ll still have President DeSantis (or whomever) 30 years from now.
Anti-MAGA forces are just too weak willed.
Again, it could be that when push comes to shove, the whole thing will be over before it even starts. There will be a lot of angry tweets on Twitter, but in the end, because Twitter liberals aren’t willing to risk anything in the real world, we slip peacefully into autocracy and that, as they say, will be that.

There is a lot of froth these days among the “thought leaders” of the MAGA New Right about how the center-Left because it “won’t leave them alone” is forcing them to radicalize. The question is, of course, is this all talk and when presented with the option of getting everything they want peacefully, will they restrain themselves?

A lot, I think, hinges on what Trump does. Trump is so stupid and lazy, and so absolutely fucking prone to saying “the quiet part out loud” that he, unto himself, could be the single reason why we have a civil war where we bomb ourselves into the Stone Age.

Here are some reasons why we will have a civil war.

Republicans have come to glorify political violence
Something you see a lot these days within the bullshit echo chamber of the MAGA New Right is the belief that because “liberals won’t leave us alone” that they are being “driven” to extremism. There’s a lot of leading not-so-vague talk as to what all this would ultimately mean. But it’s clear that for a number of “thought leaders” within the MAGA New Right that they have accepted that at some point in the future, they’re going to have to resort to violence to get what they want.
Republicans no longer believe in democracy
It is now clear that like any good fascists, Republicans no longer believe in democracy unless it’s for the specific purpose of gaining and keeping power. This view of the system they’re supposed to a part of leads them do extremely destabilizing things that help push the country to the brink.
Trump 2024
Just Trump being the 2024 nominee would, in itself, be enough to cause a civil war at some point in late 2024 – early 2025. He just has a special knack for “owning the libs” in such a way that if he stole in 2024 election and said the “quiet part outloud” that Blue States would grow so enraged that it would be they, not Red States, that left the Union and caused a Second Civil War. But Ron DeSantis is polling exceptionally well at the moment, so either Trump politically shivs him at some point, or he co-ops him, making him his VP, opening the door to DeSantis becoming America’s Putin at some point down the road a little bit.
Steve K Bannon.
Bannon and his toadies are actively working to destroy the framework that we use to administer free and fair elections. So, it’s very easy to imagine a situation where this gambit works in ways that Trump himself is too idiotic to pull off personally and it will be so egregious that, again, Blue States leave the Union and we have a Second American Civil War.
Extreme negative polarization
We’re in for a bump four or so years, no matter what, because negative polarization, on a systemic level, has reached a critical mass. When one of your political parties is fascist and would rather crash the global economy instead of even appear to work for the good of the nation — you got a problem.
A lack of shared values
As the big blow up on Twitter in the last 24 hours about a Stephen Colbert song and dance gag about getting vaccinated proves — we can’t even agree on what’s funny. A combination of this and negative polarization is leading to the United States being two nations, one Red, one Blue and when we get around to attempting to elect the next president, the system simply won’t be prepared for the passions it will stir up.
A potentially historic miscalculation on the part of Republicans
It’s possible that, much like European powers in the lead up to WW1, when the time comes and Republicans have a choice between peacefully transitioning us into autocracy or fucking with us all so we want to take up arms, they will choose the latter not because they have to, but because they want to. It’s possible that by the 2024 — 2025 period, Republicans will see a civil war as their only choice to consolidate power, even if it’s clear that they could get everything they ever wanted within the system they so obviously loath.

And, yet, the center-Left is so weak willed and so lacking any form of leadership, it’s very possible that even if Trump personally tries to fuck things up, that we’ll slip peacefully into autocracy. Then, of course, the issue will be who Trump’s successor will be. Who will be the younger, more focused person he will pick to finally strangle American democracy once and for all. (Probably through some sort of Constitutional Convention.)

There are so many people for him to chose from, it’s hard to count them all. Just off the top of my head, there are about a dozen would-be autocrats waiting in the wings, who know that they can be in power just long as Putin has been. They also know they can grow just as wealthy as he is, too.

The third, far less possible option is a military junta. On paper, it seems like it’s possible, but I doubt it would actually happen. And, I don’t think it’s going to be Red States that leave the Union and start a Second American Civil War. It’s going to be Blue States.

And, remember, if we do have a 2ACW, WMD will be used and there will likely be some sort of race war in the South. Once the United States is busy bombing itself into the Stone Age, the rest of the world will slide into WW3 with a number of limited nuclear exchanges happening.

There is the possibility that after four or five years of a global Fourth Turning, that we’ll all come out the other side realizing our shared humanity and we’ll finally address global climate change, etc.

But, lulz, who am I kidding.

We’re totally fucked, no matter what happens.

As for the rest of the states, their ability to pick one side or the other is probably far easier and their biggest problem would be dealing with political refugees.

Red October: A New World Order

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Things have progressed to the point in the United States where it’s out of the control of the individual to do anything about it for the time being. All the conditions exist for the United States to either have a civil war, turn into an autocracy or there be a military junta established.

No amount of ranting on Twitter about how crazy the MAGA New Right seems is going to make any difference. The stage is set for something pretty dramatic to happen no later than about January 2025.

Something’s gotta give.

One of the two major parties in the United States is now radically anti-democratic and beholden to a rancid demagogy who is just as likely to force us into an avoidable civil war as he is to guide us peacefully into autocracy. If we do peacefully turn into an autocracy, it won’t be Trump, but his hand-picked successor who has the gumption to do the final consolidation of power through a Constitutional Convention. (Not that I don’t think Trump won’t start ranting about the need for that at any moment.)

Here are some reasons why we won’t have a civil war:

It’s not in our nature to have a civil war.
For all the hateful rhetoric on the part of the MAGA New Right, it’s possible that in the end, they manage to pull off a peaceful transition to autocracy. In fact, at first, at least, the chance from democracy to autocracy could be so subtle that only a few hysterical people like me even notice. For the average person, it will just be a replay of 2000, only worse: it will simply be accepted that the only way a Democrat can become POTUS is if that party also control Congress. People will say “the system worked” and move on.
Republicans have gamed the system.
It could be that by 2024 – 2025 the actual administration of elections will be so corrupt that it will be a fact of life that people shrug and take for granted. It will be the first step towards Americans becoming Russians in that they will no longer feel as though the government expresses the will of the people. And that will be that.
Not Trump 2024
Another reason why we could slip peacefully into autocracy is it’s not Trump who is the Republican nominee, but someone other than Trump. If this is the case, when I honestly don’t see why we would have a civil war. Autocracy is so popular within the United States –and the opposition to it is so weak — that our transition to an actual autocracy will in the end be so easy to pull off that there will be no need to resort to violence. Blue States will get angry, but, lulz, they always get angry, right Mr. Eastman?
Autocracy is very popular in the United States
A sizable portion of the United States’ electorate wants an autocracy. They want one so bad that they seem like a cult to people who aren’t all that thrilled at the prospect of one. So, it’s possible that they will wrap up the transition into autocracy without any violence at all. By the time people realize what they’ve lost, it will be way, way too late. The United States will be nothing more than a Russia clone with an identical political dynamic. There will be a MAGA-themed Constitutional Convention to “pass a balanced budget amendment” and we’ll still have President DeSantis (or whomever) 30 years from now.
Anti-MAGA forces are just too weak willed.
Again, it could be that when push comes to shove, the whole thing will be over before it even starts. There will be a lot of angry tweets on Twitter, but in the end, because Twitter liberals aren’t willing to risk anything in the real world, we slip peacefully into autocracy and that, as they say, will be that.

So, at the moment, I would say we have a 50 / 50 chance of having a civil war in the United States. It would probably start in late 2024 when Blue States leave the Union after Steve K. Bannon’s administrative coup on the local level makes it clear that Democrats will never be allowed to become president again.

There will be a lot of talk that Republicans will let Blue States leave peacefully, but, lulz, that will never happen and we have a civil war. A very costly, blood and tragic civil war that directly causes World War 3 and the death of billions as a result of a series of limited nuclear exchanges around the globe.

Here are some reasons why we will have a civil war.

Republicans have come to glorify political violence
Something you see a lot these days within the bullshit echo chamber of the MAGA New Right is the belief that because “liberals won’t leave us alone” that they are being “driven” to extremism. There’s a lot of leading not-so-vague talk as to what all this would ultimately mean. But it’s clear that for a number of “thought leaders” within the MAGA New Right that they have accepted that at some point in the future, they’re going to have to resort to violence to get what they want.
Republicans no longer believe in democracy
It is now clear that like any good fascists, Republicans no longer believe in democracy unless it’s for the specific purpose of gaining and keeping power. This view of the system they’re supposed to a part of leads them do extremely destabilizing things that help push the country to the brink.
Trump 2024
Just Trump being the 2024 nominee would, in itself, be enough to cause a civil war at some point in late 2024 – early 2025. He just has a special knack for “owning the libs” in such a way that if he stole in 2024 election and said the “quiet part outloud” that Blue States would grow so enraged that it would be they, not Red States, that left the Union and caused a Second Civil War. But Ron DeSantis is polling exceptionally well at the moment, so either Trump politically shivs him at some point, or he co-ops him, making him his VP, opening the door to DeSantis becoming America’s Putin at some point down the road a little bit.
Steve K Bannon.
Bannon and his toadies are actively working to destroy the framework that we use to administer free and fair elections. So, it’s very easy to imagine a situation where this gambit works in ways that Trump himself is too idiotic to pull off personally and it will be so egregious that, again, Blue States leave the Union and we have a Second American Civil War.
Extreme negative polarization
We’re in for a bump four or so years, no matter what, because negative polarization, on a systemic level, has reached a critical mass. When one of your political parties is fascist and would rather crash the global economy instead of even appear to work for the good of the nation — you got a problem.
A lack of shared values
As the big blow up on Twitter in the last 24 hours about a Stephen Colbert song and dance gag about getting vaccinated proves — we can’t even agree on what’s funny. A combination of this and negative polarization is leading to the United States being two nations, one Red, one Blue and when we get around to attempting to elect the next president, the system simply won’t be prepared for the passions it will stir up.
A potentially historic miscalculation on the part of Republicans
It’s possible that, much like European powers in the lead up to WW1, when the time comes and Republicans have a choice between peacefully transitioning us into autocracy or fucking with us all so we want to take up arms, they will choose the latter not because they have to, but because they want to. It’s possible that by the 2024 — 2025 period, Republicans will see a civil war as their only choice to consolidate power, even if it’s clear that they could get everything they ever wanted within the system they so obviously loath.

Or, as I keep saying, Blue States because of a lack of vision and leadership simply don’t have it in them to challenge our descent into autocracy and we gradually become a Russia clone on a political level. This, in turn, will cause a massive outflux of center-Left people out of the country. America will grow poorer and more inward looking to the point that China’s gradual ascent across the globe will happen without anyone firing a shot.

There is, of course, the other option of some sort of military junta, but that’s the least likely of the dystopian options I have in mind. It’s possible on paper, yes, but it’s far more likely that not even the U.S. Military will survive if we have a civil war and one of the first steps in any civil war would be a general balkanization of the country into warring camps.

Then WMD gets introduced as does a race war in the Deep South and after a few years of bombing ourselves into the Stone Age, we grow tired enough that we start thinking about laying down our arms and re-uniting. Or not, it could just be that we’d be fucked from here on out and the United States will be nothing more than an much larger Afghanistan that speaks English.

I guess the point of all of this is — you have to start thinking existentially. Call it The Fourth Turning, or whatever you like. But this is it. We’re careening towards the end of the United States — and, to some extent, the end of the world — as we know it.

Get a passport. Start thinking about what you’re willing to risk your life for in the real world. No one is going to save us. We’re going to have to save ourselves.

As for the rest of the states, their ability to pick one side or the other is probably far easier and their biggest problem would be dealing with political refugees.

Red October: What’s The Matter With Ohio?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Something is fucking wrong with Ohio Republicans. They have a big Republican Senate primary coming up next year and two of the guys running in it have fucking lost their minds. Take, for instance, this tweet:

The above is an example of how broken our democracy is. When you’re using crass trolling of the liberal media to get attention and, by extension, the negative-polarization attention of your MAGA base, something is fucking wrong not just with you — but the party you are a part of. Then there is this bit of malicious kookiness from the other guy running in the Ohio Republican primary:

It’s talk like this that I feel re-affirms my fears that Something Big is going to happen at some point between now and about January 2025. I still don’t have a handle on what it going to be — autocracy, civil war or military junta — but the current status quo simply can not stand.

The United States is running on political fumes at the moment and something’s gotta give. I can tell something is seriously wrong because of how the people like the two guys featured above see themselves. They have made the cognitive leap into seeing anyone who doesn’t agree with them not just as political rivals, but as “the other” they have a destroy – or be destroyed zero-sum relationship with.

And all of this is happening in Ohio of all places, which is, unto itself, pretty strange in my opinion. But the key take away is we’re careening towards a dark, unsettled future — the Fourth Turning, if you will. We can no longer simply assume that norms or even traditional liberal democracy politics itself will take care of our problems in a traditional fashion.

It definitely seems as though on an institutional level, the Republican Party is now radical, anti-democratic and bloodthirsty. In fact, I would go so far as to say they are their own worst enemy in the sense that if they would just be patient, they will give everything they want.

Here are some reasons why we won’t have a civil war:

It’s not in our nature to have a civil war.
For all the hateful rhetoric on the part of the MAGA New Right, it’s possible that in the end, they manage to pull off a peaceful transition to autocracy. In fact, at first, at least, the chance from democracy to autocracy could be so subtle that only a few hysterical people like me even notice. For the average person, it will just be a replay of 2000, only worse: it will simply be accepted that the only way a Democrat can become POTUS is if that party also control Congress. People will say “the system worked” and move on.
Republicans have gamed the system.
It could be that by 2024 – 2025 the actual administration of elections will be so corrupt that it will be a fact of life that people shrug and take for granted. It will be the first step towards Americans becoming Russians in that they will no longer feel as though the government expresses the will of the people. And that will be that.
Not Trump 2024
Another reason why we could slip peacefully into autocracy is it’s not Trump who is the Republican nominee, but someone other than Trump. If this is the case, when I honestly don’t see why we would have a civil war. Autocracy is so popular within the United States –and the opposition to it is so weak — that our transition to an actual autocracy will in the end be so easy to pull off that there will be no need to resort to violence. Blue States will get angry, but, lulz, they always get angry, right Mr. Eastman?
Autocracy is very popular in the United States
A sizable portion of the United States’ electorate wants an autocracy. They want one so bad that they seem like a cult to people who aren’t all that thrilled at the prospect of one. So, it’s possible that they will wrap up the transition into autocracy without any violence at all. By the time people realize what they’ve lost, it will be way, way too late. The United States will be nothing more than a Russia clone with an identical political dynamic. There will be a MAGA-themed Constitutional Convention to “pass a balanced budget amendment” and we’ll still have President DeSantis (or whomever) 30 years from now.
Anti-MAGA forces are just too weak willed.
Again, it could be that when push comes to shove, the whole thing will be over before it even starts. There will be a lot of angry tweets on Twitter, but in the end, because Twitter liberals aren’t willing to risk anything in the real world, we slip peacefully into autocracy and that, as they say, will be that.

We will sleep peacefully into autocracy, millions of center-Left people will flee the country gradually over a generation and the United States will become a shit hole country, hiding behind Fortress America. But Republicans are so fucking bonkers and bloodthirsty, that they could very well push us into a violent civil war where the metrics that success are measured by will be dramatically different.

One thing is for sure, however — if we do have a civil war, we’re going to bomb ourselves into the stone age and it will all be so bloody, so horrific that everyone involved will regret it ever happened.

Here are some reasons why we will have a civil war.

Republicans have come to glorify political violence
Something you see a lot these days within the bullshit echo chamber of the MAGA New Right is the belief that because “liberals won’t leave us alone” that they are being “driven” to extremism. There’s a lot of leading not-so-vague talk as to what all this would ultimately mean. But it’s clear that for a number of “thought leaders” within the MAGA New Right that they have accepted that at some point in the future, they’re going to have to resort to violence to get what they want.
Republicans no longer believe in democracy
It is now clear that like any good fascists, Republicans no longer believe in democracy unless it’s for the specific purpose of gaining and keeping power. This view of the system they’re supposed to a part of leads them do extremely distablizing things that help push the country to the brink.
Trump 2024
Just Trump being the 2024 nominee would, in itself, be enough to cause a civil war at some point in late 2024 – early 2025. He just has a special knack for “owning the libs” in such a way that if he stole in 2024 election and said the “quiet part outloud” that Blue States would grow so enraged that it would be they, not Red States, that left the Union and caused a Second Civil War. But Ron DeSantis is polling exceptionally well at the moment, so either Trump politically shivs him at some point, or he co-ops him, making him his VP, opening the door to DeSantis becoming America’s Putin at some point down the road a little bit.
Steve K Bannon.
Bannon and his toadies are actively working to destroy the framework that we use to administer free and fair elections. So, it’s very easy to imagine a situation where this gambit works in ways that Trump himself is too idiotic to pull off personally and it will be so egregious that, again, Blue States leave the Union and we have a Second American Civil War.
Extreme negative polarization
We’re in for a bump four or so years, no matter what, because negative polarization, on a systemic level, has reached a critical mass. When one of your political parties is fascist and would rather crash the global economy instead of even appear to work for the good of the nation — you got a problem.
A lack of shared values
As the big blow up on Twitter in the last 24 hours about a Stephen Colbert song and dance gag about getting vaccinated proves — we can’t even agree on what’s funny. A combination of this and negative polarization is leading to the United States being two nations, one Red, one Blue and when we get around to attempting to elect the next president, the system simply won’t be prepared for the passions it will stir up.
A potentially historic miscalculation on the part of Republicans
It’s possible that, much like European powers in the lead up to WW1, when the time comes and Republicans have a choice between peacefully transitioning us into autocracy or fucking with us all so we want to take up arms, they will choose the latter not because they have to, but because they want to. It’s possible that by the 2024 — 2025 period, Republicans will see a civil war as their only choice to consolidate power, even if it’s clear that they could get everything they ever wanted within the system they so obviously loath.

All we can hope for, I guess, is somehow Blue States win in the end.

As for the rest of the states, their ability to pick one side or the other is probably far easier and their biggest problem would be dealing with political refugees.

Red October: No One Is Going To Save Us From The MAGA New Right

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It’s comical how Twitter liberals continue to struggle with — or are completely obviously to — the cold, hard reality that we’re on our own when it comes to our dark, dark future.

There will be no reform. There will be no “boom” that changes everything. We can no long simply “hope” that somehow, someway, the entire MAGA New Right edifice is going to magically come crashing down.

We have to admit that in the end, we may be forced into a corner by MAGA. Things are going to grow existential, especially if Steve Bannon’s administrative coup plan works. As early as 2022, we may be faced with the very real world of us either admitting that we’re going to be an autocracy or we have some sort of civil war.

I really, really don’t violence and I definitely don’t want a civil war. But the MAGA New Right is so full if itself, so bloodthirsty that they could very well force the issue, over and above the successful implementation of Bannon’s administrative coup.

The MAGA New Right could be on the cusp of peacefully getting everything they want, only to blow it because first, Trump always says the quiet part out loud and two, their own bloodlust gets the best of them.

I don’t think enough people appreciate how dire our striates are at the moment. We really are careening towards the existential decision of civil war or autocracy (or maybe military junta) and there will be no improvements to our lot. We pretty much have — on a political level — everything we’re going to have in the 2022 – 2024 timeframe.

We are so, totally fucked.

There are no easy answers. No easy solutions. And victory is the MAGA New Right’s to lose.

Given that they’re led by deranged lunatic Donald Trump, anything is possible.

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