Tag: Glorious American Revolution of 2021

The Republican Party Is Modern ‘Slave Power’ & Must Be Destroyed


by Ender

Sooner or later, because the Republican Party on an systemic, essential basis is nothing more than modern “Slave Power” we’re going to either live under its jackboot or destroy it.

Now, a number of NeverTrumpers talk about this need to destroy the Republican Party, but they always talk about it in an extremely abstract, rhetorical fashion. And, for the time being, that’s probably the best course of action. But when such MAGA New Right “thought leaders” like Jesse Kelly and the talking heads of FOX News’ primetime up pretty much say we’re headed towards political violence — and it’s all liberals’ fault — something’s gotta give.

Again, let me be absolutely clear — I hate violence. I hate guns. All of my ranting here is done in sort of a “psychohistory” way. I’m looking at general, macro political, economic and demographic trends and making a pretty obvious conclusion — we’re fucked. And, because I absolutely refuse to let a tool like Jesse Kelly intimidate me, I’m calling his bluff. He’s not going to blame ME for the political violence HE glorifies.

I have seen how abstract fears about — essentially — “replacement theory” on the part of the MAGA New Right are destroying our liberal democracy and I feel forced to make my own abstract fears concrete. Hence, my obsessive “doom shit” about the looming existential choice of autocracy or civil war.

I also love scenarios so thinking up the specifics of how we might either peacefully transition into an autocracy or find ourselves destroying the Republican Party as part of a civil war is definitely my bailiwick. So any suggestion of violence is strictly wargaming. I’m a man of ideas and to me running a wargame about how we might defeat Trumplandia is just part and parcel of that.

Anyway, back to the point — there is going to come a point where just like during the Civil War slave power pushed us to the breaking point and ultimately caused its own destruction, so, too, is it likely that if the MAGA New Right doesn’t turn us into a Russian-style managed democracy that we (e.g. Blue States) are pushed into a historical corner and we have to destroy them on the field of battle.

And let me stress – I don’t want any political violence and I sure as fuck don’t want a civil war. Unlike the MAGA New Right fucktards I actually am aware of how fucking horrific a civil war would be. It would be massive, epic tragedy that would likely leave billions dead because the entire post-WW2 liberal order would collapse and WW3 would happen.

But on a macro historical level, I just don’t see how we don’t avoid either autocracy or civil war. And if those are my choices, I won’t say I “pick” civil war, but that’s the high risk, high potential reward option that is a lot better than living under an autocracy. The reason why all of this is personal for me is I’m a loudmouth kook and I know that having the luxury of living in a free country like the United States has been — to date — is the only reason why I can rant about what a fucking cocksucker Mike Pompeo is without risk of being pushed out a window by ICE. (I talk about this a lot, I know, but it’s just a rhetorical flourish. A running gag, if you will.)

Any time you’re talking about leaving politics behind and settling things but killing people for ideological reasons, oh boy. War is hell and unpredictable and should be avoided at all costs. But, if I HAVE to think about it, the Blue States are a lot like the North — it might take a little while for them to get their shit together, but in the end they can vanquish their rival vision of America. A lot would depend, of course, on what California did.

If it simply leaves the Union at the onset of a Second American Civil War, then, lulz, welcome to Trumplandia.

It’s times like these where I wish I went to Harvard and worked at VOX so I could get paid to figure out what to tell you to do at this point. As it is, I’m at a loss.

The MAGA New Right Stanning Of Hungary’s Orban Is Proof The Movement Has Gone Politically Septic


by Ender

One of the more alarming things to happen in modern American politics is how thirsty the MAGA New Right is for autocrats all over the world. The latest thug to have their Tiger Beat spread cut out and pasted on their bedroom wall is Hungary’s autocratic superstar Viktor Orbán.

Talk about what the fuck.

It’s astonishing that it feels like two eras — the late 1850s and the late 1930s — are fusing together in some sort of weird political Frankenstein’s monster. It’s like as if the leaders of Slave Power went on a tour of the Russian Empire and were impressed with how docile the serfs were. Ugh!

What really astonishes me is how all of this is happening is broad daylight and it’s not a huge scandal. It’s like how all those Republican Senators celebrated the 4th of July in Moscow — of all places — a few years ago. That was another what the fuck moment.

What we have to take seriously is the Republican Party is radicalizing in broad day light. It’s now a fascist autocratic white nationalist party. By definition, if it ever gains power again, it’s going to finally extinguish our undead democracy. Given that even an undead democracy has a natural ebb and flow to it, Republicans are going to gain power again.

And they’re probably never going to let it go.

Any discussion of this clusterfuck, however, has to address that the very thing that has allowed the MAGA New Right to gain so much power in broad daylight — Trump’s “chaos agent” nature — is also the movement’s greatest weakness. Trump flings off so much inept chaos just by existing, that he could very well start a civil war that would at least give Blue States a fighting chance at destroying the Republican Party cancer.

So, in a sense, Trump remains a macro historical wildcard. He has such absolute control over the fascist Republican Party that it’s possible he might transition us into an autocracy. And it’s also that because he’s a fucking idiot, he could bungle that same transition and cause a civil war that leads to the destruction of the Republican Party just as much as the first Civil War prompted the destruction of Slave Power once and for all.

But the fact remains — the Republican Party must be destroyed if we are to remain a free country. On a systemic, intuitional basis, the Republican Party is now fascist, autocratic and white nationalist. I’m not thrilled at the idea that the United States would ever have to go through the tragedy of civil war again, but if my only other option is to live in an autocracy like Orban’s Hungary, what the fuck else are we going to do?

And, yet, no fate but what we make. There’s still a chance that we’re going to drift towards some sort of situation where we have an autocracy — a Democrat can only become POTUS if Democrats control Congress — but the fascist Republicans will be so busy making abortion illegal and giving plutocrats yet another tax cut that they whole pushy-pushy out of windows thing will remain just a running gag for me.

I hope.

The Twitter ‘Resistance’ Is A Sham: Civil War, Autocracy & The Zeroth Law

Zeroth Law
A robot may not harm humanity, or, by inaction, allow humanity to come to harm.
— Isaac Asimov


By Ender

The most powerful nation in the world is careening towards an existential choice: autocracy or civil war. I hate violence. I hate guns. Hell, I hate conflict. But we’ve approached a historical moment when the average self-aware American needs to do a gut check: what are you willing to do to maintain and, if necessary renew, the American Covenant?

As such, I feel forced by the human, American equivalent of Asimov’s “Zeroth Law” to say that given that I would rather die on my feet a free man than live on my knees a slave to MAGA that maybe we should begin to prepare for civil war. This is an extremely risky option.

There are no assurances that we, “the Good Guys” would win. A simple glance at the first Civil War is a huge warning not to think about it — from 1861 to 1863 the CSA had a very, very good chance of winning. That’s one of the many things about war that sucks so bad: you just never know. You could end up killing a lot of people and still not achieve your war aims. Just ask the multitude of Iraqis and Iranians that died in the early 1980s.

But at the same time, the MAGA New Right is telegraphing their objectives. They want the United States to be an autocracy, a managed democracy. They are doing this in broad daylight. If you look at the Twitter feed of people like Jesse Kelly, it’s pretty much full of the exact same things I rant about, only from the exact opposite end of the political spectrum.

What I fear, he wants, and vis versa.

I’m not proposing you buy a gun or anything — please, for fuck’s sake don’t — but I am saying you have at best about four years (January 2025) to get your affairs in order before we either slip peacefully into a Russian-style autocracy or we have a civil war of some sort.

If you have the means, buy a passport and get out while you still can. If you’re like me and don’t think you’re going to have the means to leave, you need to start to game out what you’re going to do. In some respects, a lot of this is macro and out of the hands of any one person. The choice of civil war or autocracy isn’t really in my — or anyone else’s hands.

But if we do have a civil war — which I pray we won’t — freedom loving people have to get over themselves and start thinking on an existential level how they can help the war effort. I know myself well enough to know that I’m probably going to throw myself into the revolution should it happen. I’m a good writer, speaker and organizer.

Should history decide to give me the opportunity to help save the United States, I’m going to answer the call.

Or, put another way, don’t let yourself be cowed by the civil war talk of the New Right. Rather, call their bluff and start to game out what you might do on an individual basis to combat those fucktards when the moment comes. The Blue States have a huge advantage when it comes to their economies, political unity and concentration of population.

The issue is, just like with the early days of the first civil war, if the Blue States will have the wherewithal to fight fire with fire. It could be that the Red States will sucker punch Blue States and while they’re recovering simply strangle what’s left of American democracy while Blue States recover from the inital blow.

But the Zeroth Law tells me, on a personal, abstract basis what to do.

I suggest you do the same.

When To Panic


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

When should you panic when it comes to my dystopian predictions about the “Fourth Turning” being the existential choice of civil war or autocracy?

Second American Civil War
In some ways, this one is pretty obvious — there would be a catalyst that started the process of a states doing something akin to secession that would spark an event that we would refer to as “the Second American Civil War.” So, in a sense, you would know something was happening.

But at the same time, here are some metrics that would re-enforce the idea that the “Fourth Turning” of a civil war is about to happen. One is, Red people in Blue States and Blue people in Red states would begin to flee to states with politics that fit their personal views. This would be extremely dramatic. There are about 335 million Americans and if there was panic domestic political refugee movements it would be astonishing in scope.

Just as this happened, it’s likely New York City would be a massive flash point because a lot of conservative media is physically located there. So, if the United States really was about to buckle into some sort of Trumplandia and rump USA shooting war, it’s very possible that the offices of Fox News and the WSJ would be physically attacked by an angry mob of New Yorkers. Trump Tower, too, could be stormed and gutted.

If you start seeing shit like that — we’re going to have a civil war.

Also, if you start to see radicalization on the part of, say, the talking heads of Today or Good Morning America or NPR — we’re really fucked. Those guys are the last bastions of “everyone stay calm.” If they freak out, then buckle up, we’re fucked.

Another thing that would happen about this time is severe violence on a state government level. There would be coups and counter-coups in states like Oregon, Virginia and Michigan.

One other thing — the draft would come back in a rather abrupt fashion.

Autocracy
The time to panic with autocracy in the United States is when the media is purged. This will happen in a way that the crumbling Establishment goes out of its way to minimize and rationalize.

Then, gradually, in fits and starts any form of protesting will be crushed and, yes, people will begin to mysteriously get pushed out of widows.

Form follows function.

“Welcome To The New Right!’ — The Rise Of Republican White Nationalist Fascism


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Jesus Christ are we fucked. It’s growing tiresome to point out how dire things are at the moment. All the conditions are there for the United States to drift peacefully into something akin to “lite touch” fascism. The only reason why it would be a bit mellow — at first — is the absence of a large-scale SA / SS paramilitary group.

We have them, but there are too many of them who are fractious and not really the jackbooted thugs that a fascism government would need. Add to that the so-called Deep State of people who simply want to keep our failing liberal democratic traditions alive in some form and at first there will be only one change: the only way a Democrat can become POTUS is if Democrats control Congress, too.

Otherwise, things will — initially, at least — be the same as they always have.

The problem is, form follows function. Once white nationalist fascists realize they can do whatever the fuck they want and there will be absolutely no consequences for them, they’re going to grow more aggressive. Before you know it, my running gag about me being pushed out a window by ICE won’t be so funny anymore. (Gulp)

Soon enough, living in the United States and Russia will be like the end of Animal Farm — we’ll look back and forth between the two and they’ll look identical. Only when it becomes personal will the average white Christian MAGA person care about the abuses of our new white nationalist fascist overlords

As of right now, that seems to be our fate. We’re just going to peacefully transition into a white nationalist fascist autocracy without a peep of objection. We’re going to both-sides ourselves into autocracy. There will be a MAGA-originated Constitutional Convention and whichever one of the would-be autocrats who are chomping at the bit to succeed Trump wins will become an American Putin.

Generations of Americans will only know President Hawley, or President Pompeo or President Noam or President Cotton….the list goes on. There will be occasional big protests and occasional random acts of savage political violence on the part of the white national fascists. But, overall, America will be a national of “blood and soil” and indistinguishable from Russia or Hungry or Turkey.

There are a few known unknowns that could scramble what seems inevitable now. Trump is a fucking idiot who could push himself into macro historical trends AGAIN and force an avoidable civil war on us out of sheer incompetence. Or our transition into a white Christian nationalist fascist state might hit Blue States in just the wrong way and they bounce, causing a civil war.

But, in general, the Establishment simply isn’t taking the fucking New Right seriously enough. So, we’re fucked.

America is Careening Towards The Existential Choice of Autocracy Or Civil War In January 2025


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The United States is either just a few years away from descending into full MAGA New Right autocracy or this is a modern antebellum period. Take your pick. You only have those two choices.

Let me state at the beginning that I got a lot — a whole lot — wrong about the Trump Era.

But looking back, most of my errors were miscalculations about what Trump was actually capable of doing. He talked like an autocrat, but he didn’t walk like one. So, I spent all this time thinking up pretty basic autocratic things he could do…and he was just too lazy and stupid to do them. As such, you have a situation where it seemed very easy to me during the 2020 presidential cycle that Trump would steal the election and become an autocrat via a Koch Brothers-inspired Constitutional Convention.

It was a gimme for Trump. All the conditions were there. All the metrics. Everything. All Trump had to do was fire enough people to get someone to indict Joe Biden and have images of him being frog walked at some point leading up to November 2020 and that would be it. What’s more, as late as a few days after the 2020 election, Trump STILL could have stolen the election and he just didn’t have the wherewithal.

So what happened was he panicked. He made a last ditch effort to steal the election by having his angry mob want to “Hang Mike Pence.” But it was always a dumb plan and all it did was give Republicans, on an systemic basis, a heads up as to how to steal future elections.

But back to 2024.

It’s seems a forgone conclusion that in January 2025, either we slip peacefully into some sort of MAGA New Right autocracy because it officially becomes conventional wisdom that the only way a Democrat can become president is if their party controls Congress at the same time or we have a civil war. And my bet is if it happens in 2025, it’s going to be Blue States, not Red States that bounce.

The dead hand of history is on Red States’ side — they have the macro trend momentum — and so when the moment comes and it’s clear we’re going to be an autocracy, there’s a chance that Blue States simply won’t put up with it and we have a civil war.

Of course, there’s one issue I can’t game out: the U.S. Military.

It’s possible that in the end, the military gets over itself and steps in. They depose the MAGA New Right autocrat, form a junta with Jim Mattis at its head and call a Constitutional Convention to fix the problems facing the country. Hopefully, of course, they’ll ensure that it’s not a MAGA dominated convention, but who knows.

All I know is, something’s gotta give. The positions of the two sides are hardening to the point that something’s going to change very soon, within a few years. Things are going to change in a big, historic fashion that a lot of people are simply not prepared to experience.

I can’t predict the future. So I could be wrong — again. But barring something big happening that throws everything out of whack (the LHC is going back online in 2022, so lulz) I just don’t see how we don’t have a pretty massive turning point in American history around January 2025.

States Are Now The Laboratories Of Autocracy


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It used to be, the famous quip about the states was that they were the “laboratories of democracy.” Sadly, the opposite is now true — in MAGA state after state, would-be autocrats are testing out different autocratic measures in an hope of catching the attention of the MAGA faithful.

Because of the fundimental anti-democratic nature of the modern MAGA Republican Party, by definition, if you want to make a name for yourself as a would-be Republican nominee, you have to think up new and creative ways of strangling democracy on a state level. From Texas, to South Dakota to Florida, governor after governor has made it clear that their goal is to strangle American democracy in the name of “making America great again.”

And, I think, that’s the crux of what a lot of people are missing about what’s going on in the United States right now — Trump has always been nothing more than an avatar. As such, even if we magically took Trump out of the equation there are many, many men and women chomping at the bit to finish the transition to autocracy that Trump began.

So, in a sense, we’re pretty much fucked. Totally, and completely, fucked.

In fact, I would say we’re so fucked that the other option before us, civil war, might, in a sense be the better one because even though it would be a horrific tragedy, at least there would be the possibility that we would come out on the other side with a stronger democracy.

That’s kind of dark and I don’t like to think about that, but, yikes is autocracy bearing down on us.

What Are Trump, Mark Meadows & Their Merry Band Of Seditious Idiots Up To?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The core group of people who surrounded Mad King Trump fling off so much bullshit at any one moment that it’s very difficult to figure out what the fuck they’re talking about sometimes. But, just recently, former Trump COS Mark Meadows make it sound like Trump was plotting some sort of return sooner rather than later.

I struggle to figure out what’s going on.

Either it’s all bullshit meant to make Trump feel better, or they’re actively planning to take advantage of the potential instability caused by Cyber Ninjas “proving” that Trump “won” Arizona. If it’s the latter, then they’re actively stetting the stage for a national version of January 6th.

Here’s how it would go down.

Sometime soon — in August, maybe? — Cyber Ninjas comes out with a preliminary report that says Trump won Arizona. Trump spooges his pants and won’t shut the fuck up about how this PROVES he won the 2020 election, even if it’s just one state. This sets of a cascading set of events where Red State legislatures across the country decide to hold “Decertification Conventions” meant to appease the MAGA base. Of course, soon enough, because of Trump screaming at them, these conventions turn into “Nullification Conventions” and, soon enough, once they realize that you can’t really nullify the results of a presidential election — Secessionist Conventions.

Then Trump really does do the ultimate ask the elected members of his violent personality cult — are you going to join my new Trumplandia government?

That is kind of the absolute, absolute worst case scenario.

More likely, all of this bullshit would be used to as part of a greater media narrative for the 2022 mid-terms. They might tell the MAGA base to vote so Trump the “real” president could become Speaker and, as such, be put into the line of secession to cause who knows mischief.

The point is — the moment Cyber Ninjas comes out with their preliminary report, all hell might break loose. Or not. Everything is very much up in the air at this point.

Pretty much anything might happen. The key issue is, could Trump unto himself, be catalyst enough to force a secession crisis if he isn’t “re-instated.”

The New Normal: Life In The Time Of A Criminal Ex-President


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Donald Trump is a cold, hard criminal. And an idiot. And very lazy. And, tragically, a still-popular ex-president. So, what are we going to do about him?

Well, there’s a pretty wide spectrum out endgames for this particular orange ding-dong. On one end, we have him finally meeting some sort of reckoning. In its most extreme, Trump would be “locked up” and we wouldn’t have to worry about him anymore.

Lulz. Then, on the OTHER end of the spectrum is reality — civil war or autocracy.

Now what.

Despite his best efforts, Trump was not able to destroy the United States. But as long as he’s got breath in his lungs and greed in his heart, he’s going to keep trying. So, I just don’t see anything ever happening to Trump, no matter what we learn about him.

We could have absolute proof that he coordinated the January 6th Insurrection with Congressional Republican leadership. We could have proof that he literally was using American foreign policy as a cash cow. The fucking list goes on. Once Mueller chocked at the behest of Barr and gave Trump a political pardon, that was it. Trump is now politically above the law. We just don’t have the political will to do anything about the fucking asshole.

America has reached a singularity of derp when it comes to dipshit Trump. The Republican Party is now a fascist, violent personality cult and there’s no going back. Because of a combination of racism, misogyny, and macro historical trends that are severely warping our politics, Trump is now something of the God King of Dune of American politics. We just don’t have any political will when it comes to him.

Look at it this way — in my personal experience, my relatives who are far more conservative than I am hate, in an abstract manner, liberal progressives so fucking much that they are prepared to let me be throw into a Trump branded ICE camp rather than form a united front with me and people like me to defeat Trumpism — even though they don’t like Trump!

The inability to get conservatives-who-aren’t-MAGA to put aside abstract negative polarization long enough to destroy the cancer that is MAGA is very depressing on a political basis. It’s because of this that we continue to careen towards civil war or autocracy.

Those are our choices by no later than January 2025: autocracy or civil war.

MAGA has gone septic. Our political system is warped. The country is far more unstable than Twitter liberals are willing to admit

What’s the endgame? I dunno.

You tell me.

American Politics Is Dead


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As I keep saying, American Twitter Liberals are oblivious to how dire things are on a practical level political in the United States. Traditional politics have collapsed.

Politically, I’m the only center-Left person in my immediate family and it’s now officially impossible for me to talk politics with my far more conservative siblings. They either freak out on me or they are so consumed with recursive thinking brought on by negative polarization that it’s a moot point.

This is not great!

The fact that America is now so divided by partisan politics that you can’t have just a casual conversation about politics with people you disagree with means we’re a lot further down the road to the existential choice of civil war or autocracy than Twitter liberals would have us believe.

People are beginning to make fun of me for how much I talk about this, but I don’t know what I can do — all the metrics definitely indicate to me that that existential choice is hurtling towards us at an alarming rate. If it doesn’t happen it will be because of something that no one — not even I — can predict.

I think some of all of this stems from some people simply can’t process the concept that the United States is either going to transition into a Russian style autocracy or have a civil war. They’re so busy living their lives and raising their kids that the idea that something so dramatic would happen is just not something they can process.