Of all the states, Texas is the most likely to start the process of National Divorce if Trump loses this fall. Of course, on the other side, California is the one state I could see leaving the Union — or prompting Trump being deposed — if he goes full tyrant after he wins.
Anyway, keep an eye on Texas. The secessionist rhetoric has gotten so bad in the state that at some point a newspaper there ran an editorial telling everyone to shut up about it.
It will be interesting to see what happens, is all I gotta say.
The signs are there that one side or the other may collectively decide to start to a National Divorce as part of the 2024 presidential silly season. But, at the moment, it definitely seems as though Reds are far more likely to do it than Blues.
And the one state that seems most likely to secede beginning at some point in late 2024, early 2025 is Texas. The talk of secession is so hot in Texas that a paper in the state wrote an editorial telling people to shut up about it.
The key reason why I believe Texas — then other Red States — might actually pull the trigger on a National Divorce is state Republican Parties are so fucking radical these days on a structural basis, that if the time comes they may actually do it. Damn the consequences.
There are two scenarios whereby I could see Texas — then the rest of Red States — might leave the Union. One is, Trump loses and when he starts to rant about the need for a National Divorce to keep himself out of prison, Red States, starting with Texas then probably South Carolina, will actually take him up on it.
Meanwhile, the OTHER way Texas might begin a National Divorce is if Trump is somehow deposed for going full tyrant after he wins. THEN, I could see Texas leaving the Union, which would prompt other Red States to do the same.
All of this is still very speculative and abstract at the moment. The only reason why I think the country MIGHT collapse into revolution / civil war is they say you go bankrupt gradually then all at once. And all the signs are there that the country is gradually moving towards a level of political instability not seen since the first Civil War.
Of course, it’s very possible that we’ll just drift through this particular situation and nothing of note will happen one way or another. But for that to happen, not only would Biden have to win, but Trump’s rantings about the need for political violence after he lost would have to be ignored.
Now that the Senate immigration deal is dead in the House, Biden can go ahead and Federalize the Texas National Guard.
The question, of course, is will he?
Talking to my far more conservative relatives — whom I love dearly — it definitely seems as though if Biden does something so obvious and justified, that on a political basis we may be going to the show.
It definitely seems to me that the lingering and simmering stand off at the Texas border may lurch forward into new and dangerous territory at some point in the near future.
It seems to me that once it is absolutely clear that the immigration bill now in Congress is officially dead that Biden is going to do something like Federalize the Texas National Guard. The center-Left media echo chamber is slowly beginning to get woke to what’s going on down there and there is building pressure for Biden to act.
The question, of course, is what is going to happen when he does.
I honestly don’t know. But I do think that the US is a lot — A LOT — less stable than any of us would prefer. On a basic level, the Right has crossed the Rubicon when it comes to being willing to commit political violence to “hold the line” against the Federal government.
The fact that Nikki Haley in a craven effort to win votes in a primary she is going to 100% lose has said that states have a right to secede doesn’t exactly help the situation any.
But we’ve not reached a tipping point. Things could still go either way.
One thing that has kept the lingering standoff between the Feds and Texas at a low, inconspicuous simmer is it really hasn’t caught the attention of the national press. Yes, Fox News and the rest of the outrage-fueled MAGA media have been all over it, but, in general, the center-Left MSM has been rather meh about it all.
There’s a chance that may change — last night, Stephen Colbert devoted a sizable chunk of his monologue to the stand off, going so far as to mention that the whole thing might cause another civil war.
Now that we’ve reached that milestone, we need to think about what happens next. I think it’s possible that Seth Meyers might devote his Closer Look feature to the stand off, which will add to the political momentum for Biden to do something about the situation.
But I think the key thing to think about is the immigration deal that’s ping-ponging around Congress at the moment. Once that deal is officially dead, then the Biden will be in the clear to escalate the situation with Texas by, say, Federalizing the Texas National Guard.
So, we’re not out of the woods yet. Add to all of this the looming possibility of another major regional war, this time in the Middle East, and….oh boy. I think we need to hunker down and maybe have a bug out bag handy in case the absolute worst happens.
The stand off between the Feds and Texas and the stand off between the US and Iran share one thing in common: they both risk uncontrollable escalation that might lead to some pretty insane things happening.
With the Fed – Texas situation, this is exactly the type of situation that members of the American Far Right have longed for for decades. It doesn’t help, of course, that the Russians are using social media to egg the situation on. One false move or misjudgment by either side and there could be, at least, a severe insurrection, and potentially a secession crisis.
Meanwhile, WW3 could break out if ANOTHER regional war broke out, this time in the Middle East. And such additional destabilizing event on the globe might push the DPRK over the edge and the next thing you know, the nukes are whizzing around.
As I’ve written before, one way to re-elect Joe Biden would be a Black Swan event like WW3 or a Secession Crisis. Hopefully, of course, none of this is going to happen and we can fight Trump politically on the merits.
Even though, of course, if he loses, he might start a civil war by demanding a National Divorce so he doesn’t go to prison.
On both Twitter and Tik-Tok I’ve seen a lot of what is clearly ‘fight fight fight” rhetoric generated by accounts that are clearly not American. It is beginning to dawn on America’s strategic foes that we could very well implode because of….vibes.
They are hoping to stir up trouble on social media to the point that, say the simmering power struggle between Texas and the Feds could turn into a full blown insurrection or even civil war.
I don’t see how we can stop this particular situation. It’s one of those things where outside forces stirring up trouble are just part of what we have to deal with going forward.
He doesn’t want escalate things. It could be that Biden isn’t Federalizing the Texas National Guard — and any other National Guard that gets in his way — because he just doesn’t want to escalate things at the moment.
He doesn’t want to blow up the immigration reform package It’s also possible that for similar reasons, he is afraid that if he Federalizes the Texas National Guard that that, by definition, will blow up the immigration reform package that is working its way through Congress at the moment.
It’s clear, of course, that something’s gotta give sooner rather than later and that there is a lingering risk of an insurrection or even a secession crisis if Biden doesn’t handle things right.
I also think that the main event — whatever it might be — will happen in late 2024, early 2025 after the 2024 Election happens.
The reason why the current stand off between the Feds and Texas is so dangerous is it taps into the race member of so many conservative white Southerners who have a lingering belief that “the South shall rise again.”
What surprises me is how much of a low simmer this provocative situation has been on since it started. We’ve yet to reach any sort of tipping point where all hell breaks out and the country collapses — even though the entire Right of the US seems determined to make that a reality.
If anything, on a personal basis, I can console myself with the idea that at the moment it seems as though if there is a Second Civil War it won’t be because “my side” — the Blues — started as I have long feared. That could still happen if things calm down in Texas and Trump cheats to win in 2024, but, for the moment, it will be Reds who will have to take the blame for destroying the greatest country in the world because of “vibes.”
But none of that has happened yet. It’s still possible that we’ll muddle through like we have so often in the past. That’s what I hope happens, at least.
I’m slowly growing obsessed with what is going on between Texas and the Federal government at the border. So much so, that I find myself at a loss that the center-Left mainstream media has been pretty mum about what’s going on.
I think that maybe this is the case because they are making the editorial judgement that if THEY give it attention, the there’s a real risk that things will escalate and we’ll end up with either another insurrection or even a civil war. I get it. It makes sense.
But I am so starved for commentary about what’s going on that I am tempted to listen to Right wing podcasts which I’m SURE are all over this particular clusterfuck. I haven’t quite gotten there yet, but it may happen.
And it could be that something will happen sooner rather than later that will force the hand of the MSM and they’ll have to start talking about it.
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