Tag: Fuck TrumpBarr

The Only Way To Save The Republic Is A Biden Landslide


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

There’s a very good chance that mysteriously Trump will win the electoral college in exactly the same way he did in 2016. We will all be in shock. We will write it off to all the boat parades or the “shy Trump voter” or whatever. At some point — maybe never — we will learn, however, that the Russians fucked with our election systems and threw election to Trump.

The darkest scenario, of course, is we will learn this happened before the Electors Vote, TrumpBarr lulz it and fight the issue in the courts and Trump STILL “wins” the election because of a 6-3 (5-4?) vote at SCOTUS. In fact, that definitely seems to be the failsafe for Republicans at this point. This are so rabid in their desire to win the election that they are completely oblivious to the political consequences of such behavior that it’s definitely the setup for The Big Ugly of civil war or revolution.

But, even without Russian help, if the election is anywhere close, we’re going to have not a Brooks Brothers Riot, but a Brooks Brothers War. There could be real, unprecedented political violence across the country as it becomes clear that TrumpBarr intends A Very American Coup. They already are suing everything that moves before the election, you can only assume that if they believe they have any — ANY — shot of stealing the election through extra-political means, they will pull that particular trigger.

So, really, the only way we keep the Republic is if somehow the Russians don’t do what I assume they’re going to do and Biden wins in such a massive landslide that it at least grows more difficult for TrumpBarr to pull of A Very American Coup — even though, obviously, they will try anyway.

I just don’t see how the post-election period isn’t one of unprecedented instability and even violence if Biden doesn’t win in a massive landslide. The Republican party simply doesn’t see democracy as valid if it isn’t helping them obtain or maintain power, so, lulz.

‘A Very American Coup’ Would Not Happen In A Political Vacuum


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It’s very easy to map out — especially in Pennsylvania — the makings of “A Very American Coup.” Because of the issue of “intermingling” of votes that SCOTUS might rule ex post facto illegal, there’s a chance that the fucking asshole MAGA Pennsylvania legislature might name their own electors in a giant fuck you to what’s left of American democracy.

Now, let’s put that in some context.

First, on a strictly political level, there are definitely rumbles of a Reagan Revolution-sized blowout for Biden. A total rejection of Trump, MAGA and Qanon. But that’s strictly the political metric. We’re dealing with an insane, rabid Mad King Trump who knows he might face personal criminal liability if he actually leaves office. As such, there’s a decent chance that his removal of 1/3 of our troops from Germany wasn’t just one of his asshole moves because he doesn’t like Angela Merkel. It could be that Trump did that specifically to ensure that the Russians will hack directly into our election systems so Trump wins. And, really, it could be they don’t even have to make him “win” so much as make the election appear so close in places like — you guessed it — Pennsylvania that the whole Very American Coup can take place.

I’m the first to admit how hyperbolic, paranoid and hysterical that all sounds. But it is something we have to consider — TrumpBarr is going to attempt a coup. An actual, honest-to-God coup in the United States in 2020. And with an assist from the Russians, no less!

What is so annoying — and troubling — about this particular nightmare scenario is there’s known endgame. I would like to think that all those lotte swilling soyboys in hipster coffee shops might sit up and take notice at such an brazen attack on our system of government, but, lulz, who knows. It’s possible they’ll stop smelling their own farts just long enough to do mean Tik-Tok video about it all and then go back to whatever it is they do.

Or, put another way, if TrumpBarr does attempt A Very American Coup, people are going to have to risk things that are important to them in the real world. People might get hurt. Careers ruined. Families destroyed. Real, honest to go real world adult stuff that can’t be fixed by a bunch of celebrities singing John Lennon’s “Imagine” poorly.

I honestly can’t give you an answer as to what might happen. It’s possible it would be simply an extreme version of 2000. Instead of a Brooks Brothers Riot, there is actual rolling political violence on the far Left and far Right while the middle simply wants it all to go away. Which, of course, would allow TrumpBarr to use the Insurrection Act to do just that.

The issue we have to grapple with is — if the only way we can possibly save 240 years of democratic tradition in the United States is a massive, self-evident landslide for Biden, we got some serious, serious existential problems in our country. Under the absolute best case scenario, we’re stuck with hundreds of young hack MAGA judges and a bankrupt treasury because of craven taxcut by Republicans.

Even if we physically remove Trump from the White House– which is debatable, no matter what — we will have a lingering Trump Deep State that is going to do everything in its power to destroy the Biden Administration. All of the systemic political rot that produced Trump will still be there. We’re going to be fucked for a generation.

And, lying in wait will be about a dozen would-be actual autocratic presidents chomping at the bit to do everything the people who voted for Trump in 2016 thought he was going to do.

Or, put another way, the only way we punt the crisis of Trumpism is a historic Biden landslide. But it would just be a punt. And, in all honesty, such a landslide might be the very thing that causes MAGA-Qanon to finally freak out and start blowing shit up. Things really are that bad in America right now.

We have some deep seated, existential problems in our political system that are intractable. I have no idea how they’re going to be solved.

The Tyranny Of Trump’s Instability


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing about Trump is talks big but often folds in a dramatic, unexpected fashion. He does this all the time. And, yet, faced with the very real possibility of criminal liability should he leave office, there’s a chance he’ll destroy the United States in order to prevent that from happening.

So, you just don’t know.

What makes Trump so difficult to predict is he’s such a combination of would-be autocrat combined with incompetence and malicious showmanship that you often assume the absolute worst from him. Then, he can’t follow through. Or, put another way — it’s similar to how voters assumed they were getting the guy from The Appearance when they were just getting an empty suit.

But there is the issue of Barr. Interior Minister Bill Barr, having successfully managed the media narrative of The Mueller Report, has every reason to believe he can do the same thing with the 2020 Election. And the more difficult doing so becomes, the more radical he and Trump are likely to become.

And, yet, as I said, Trump is both so incompetence and erratic that virtually anything is possible. It could be that Trump simply salts the earth on the way out. Or he quits and gets Pence to pardon him. Or he pardons himself. There is a huge spectrum of different worse case scenarios to choose from. And all of them, given the information available, would make sense as possibly happening.

All I know is, the next three or so months are going to be just like Trump — surreal and unpredictable.

Election 2020 Known Unknowns


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

How Tight Is It Going To Be?
On one hand, you have indications that we’re going to have a massive number of people voting, which would help Democrats in general. On the other hand, it’s possible that because of the Electoral College and the 48 – 48 split of the nation that even that won’t be enough to give us what we need: a massive blowout to such an extent that it makes it much more difficult for Trump to pull off A Very American Coup.

Russians Hacking Into Our Election Systems
I rant about this a lot, but I don’t, like, KNOW that this will happen. But Russia loves Trump so much that it makes sense that Trump removed 1/3 of our troops from Germany as a direct quid pro quo for the Russians hacking directly into our election systems. I could very well see Trump just barely winning Pennsylvania — and a few other states — and we’d just write it off to the 2016 effect of a split popular / Electoral College vote. We could simply never know what the Russians did. Maybe when AOC is let out of prison in 40 years we’d find out about it. But by that point, lulz.

Is Trump Too Incompetent & Lazy?
While Trump is an autocrat, he is a very lazy and incompetent autocrat. The thing that might cause him to overcome these basic aspects of his personality would be his abject fear of going to prison after leaving office. As such, it’s possible that using Barr he will stage A Very American Coup and never fucking leave office for any fucking reason. This is a very reason possibility — especially if there is any doubt on election night who won.

Are Americans Will To Risk Real World Things?
If TrumpBarr do stage A Very American Coup, is the average American willing to actually risk things that are important to them in the real world for the sake of the country? That’s probably the biggest known unknown. It could be that while there might be a bit of violence here and there, really all that would happen is a lot of angry Twitter threads.

October Surprises
Every day we get closer to the Election, the likelihood that something fucking bonkers is going to happen to upend the whole thing. I keep thinking it’s going to be a Hunter Biden Laptop Deepfake, but who knows. One thing is for sure — we’re already an autocratic managed democracy and for Trump to not think up some bullshit October Surprise would definitely not make any sense. So, it seems logical that things are going to turn on a dime and Trump is going to magically be in the lead again.

The Big Ugly
The weird thing about Trump is he literally keeps inciting violence and no one listens to him. The question is — is it possible that the moment it seems as though Trump is actually going to lose, will Right Wing nutjobs start to blow shit up in an effort to scare us into letting Trump stay in office? Or, put another way, it definitely seems as though an extra-political solution to Election 2020 is on the table if Trump loses by every other metric. It could be that the country convulses no matter who wins the election for any reason because we’re just too divided and it’s just our fate to have a revolution / civil war in 2020.

The Trump Deep State


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

First, if Trump somehow left office — even after a massive Biden landslide — it would be the biggest shock of my life. Trump is an autocrat — if a very incompetent one — and, as such, he will never “lose” in the sense that he will never fucking leave office for any fucking reason. He would rather destroy the country, bring it to its knees, than leave office and risk personal criminal liability.

But let’s play pretend.

What I think will happen if we miraculously remove Trump physically from the Oval Office is he will salt the earth on the way out. He is going to install is own “deep state” in the Federal government that will do everything in its power to destroy the Biden Administration from within. In fact, I believe the Trump Deep State will be the biggest story of any putative “post-Trump” Era. That’s all we will talk about is how Trump appointees who are difficult — if not nearly impossible — to get rid of are doing everything in their power to hamper Biden.

We already see this with the head of American intelligence Ratcliffe. He’s an extreme MAGA partisan hack. There’s no reason to believe he won’t continue to be just that for as long as fucking possible. He’s going to actively fuck over Biden at every turn for as long as he’s in office. And Biden won’t be able to get rid of him, no matter what he does, because the entire Murdoch faux outrage machine will attack him for even thinking about it.

The point is — even if we get rid of Trump the person, his political herpes will continue to be a problem in American politics for years and years to come. And that’s the best case scenario — the worst case is the whole country goes tits up and we start killing each other. (I really hope I’m wrong on that last bit.)

The Crisis Of Anglo-America


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I love worst case scenarios because at least, then, I can prepare myself for the worst in some sort of concrete fashion. To me, the worst fear is an abstract fear because you don’t even know what you’re really afraid of.

Anyway, the conditions are there, at least for the two leading English speaking nations to completely implode this winter. The United States could implode if TrumpBarr attempts some sort of Very American Coup. The United Kingdom could implode if Hard Brexit happens on January 1st and it’s such a clusterfuck that Scotland bounces because it wants to remain a part of the EU.

I’m only dealing in conditions. It’s very possible that in the United States either Biden wins in a landslide or if Trump does win all that happens is there are a lot of angry Twitter threads and Tik-Tok videos from Claudia Conway. Otherwise, it’s a lulz. With the UK, it could be as an American I have no idea what I’m talking about and you should just, as always, ignore me with extreme prejudice.

The only reason why I think this worse case scenario is even possible is the United States and the United Kingdom have a tendency to follow each other politically on a macro level. This has happened to an eerie extent from when Margaret Thatcher won in the UK which was a prelude to the Reagan Revolution to the modern day. Who is Boris Johnson but just would-be British Donald Trump? In fact, the rise of Trump and the whole Brexit clusterfuck happened at just about the same time for similar reasons.

So, it would make sense that both those shit shows would wrap up at just about the same time, as well. Though, in the United States, if what I call “The Big Ugly” happens this fall-winter, it would be just the beginning of our problems, not the end of it.

No matter what, the Winter of 2020 is going to be a massive crisis for both the United States and the United Kingdom with no obvious endgame. We could possibly see a civil war / revolution in the United States and the simple dissolution of Europe’s last multi-ethnic state within days of each other. It could really get that deep.

One thing we all need to remember is in times of great upheaval things really don’t go in a straight line. There will be battles won and lost. Mistakes will be made for dumb reasons. And it may repeatedly look as though the forces of tyranny will win.

But in the United States, at least, I’m of the opinion that should the fucking fucktard MAGA-Qanon shitheads get their “civil war” they’re so eager to have, that the Blue States just might make them regret that wish. Or not. There’s no obvious endgame.

All I know is things are going to be lit.

The Curious State of The 2020 Campaign


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

We have two weeks before Election Day and there’s a lot — a LOT — going on. The interesting thing is on the face of it, it seems as though Trump has lost the Mandate of Heaven and we’re headed towards a historic blowout for Biden. I say this because of how tortured shows like Morning Joe are to make it seem as though the race is still up in the air and could go either way.

While that is true, if you read between the lines, it definitely seems as though they don’t want to come off as too cocky. And, yet, if you listen carefully, it definitely seems as though the conditions are there for Trump to get shellacked on Election Night.

But as I keep saying — autocrats never lose.

As such, two weeks is an eternity. So, I guess what I’m saying is at this particular moment, Trump is losing big time. But we’re always just one breaking news story away from all of that changing. Any moment now, I expect a Russian-produced Hunter Biden deep fake to pop out that will throw the whole race up in the air, leading to a Trump victory.

What makes it all so difficult for me to figure out what’s going to happen is how awful Trump is — in real terms — as an actual politician. The only reason why Trump has survived is a very specific set of macro trends that have prompted him up. In real terms, he’s a shit politician who is a massive self-own artist. Trump is just an avatar for white fears about the Browning of America and white, blue color male fears about the growing economic and culture power of women. Trump, as a person, is a lazy piece of shit who takes all of that for granted.

So, as such, at this particular moment, Trump is establishing the conditions for a pretty astonishing landslide against him. But, as I just said, those same conditions make it more likely that the Russians will hack directly into our election systems to throw the election for him and that some sort of Hunter Biden deep fake is going to appear very, very soon — like potentially within hours of now.

Too many powerful people — foreign and domestic — have a massive self-interest in Trump staying in power. So much so, that they could grow far more brazen than any of us could otherwise possibly imagine.

It’s all very difficult to figure out. We have a long fortnight ahead of us.

The Big Ugly: TrumpBarr Will Have To Be Physically Dragged From The White House If They Lose


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The old Benjamin Wittes quip is Trump is “malevolence mitigated by incompetence.” Another saw is “autocrats never lose.” By every possible metric, it seems as though Trump, through Barr, is going to stay in power by any means necessary even if there is a Biden landslide.

TrumpBarr would rather destroy the whole country than have Trump risk criminal exposure once he is out of office. Or, put another way, the only way Trump is leaving office should he lose is not only will he salt the earth on his way out, he’s going to demand some sort of promise about not being prosecuted once he’s no longer president.

I would even suggest he might frogwalk Obama between November and January to drive the point across — if you think me indicting Obama was bad, just wait until you try to do it to ME.

The issue is — Trump is an avatar for some seriously fucked up issue in American society. He’s like political herpes. Now that we have him, he ain’t going anywhere. Or, at least, his influence in government isn’t going anywhere. I think Trump is literally going to stay in office for the rest of his life, but that may be overstating the issue.

It could be that we’re simply in A New Era and Trump will be like Reagan was — there was life before the Reagan Revolution and life after it. I’m not one of those people who thinks Republicans will run away from Trump. To the contrary, Trump will be the new heart and soul of the Republican Party. Everything will be relative to him, just like it used to be everything was relative to Reagan.

Or, put yet another way, while I keep hearing people talk about how “fragile” our democracy is, I think we’re no longer a democracy. We’re now, officially, an autocratic managed democracy and the only possible way we have some sort of House Trump Interregnum is how God-awful incompetence Trump is at being an autocrat.

As such, we might have a few years of respite from autocracy, but soon enough, a new autocrat will take power and that will be that. It will be Trumpism without Trump. And I still think Trump will be like a reverse Gorbachev. Instead of bringing freedom to a country, Trump will strangle it.

Though I will note that while I’m often wrong, something really big has to happen for Trump to simply never leave office. TrumpBarr will use the same media narrative management techniques they used with The Mueller Report. The more difficult is for them to do this, the more radical they will become to the point that it’s rather brazen that A Very American Coup is taking place.

In the end, we may have to go through what I call The Big Ugly. And there are no assurances that the Good Guys will win if that happens.

The Bad Guys Are Going To Win


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I just don’t see any way that the bad guys of TrumpBarr don’t win. Even though I’m very pleased with how many people are voting right now, in the end, it won’t matter — TrumpBarr will likely nationalize the National Guard across the country Election Night and stop voting “until SCOTUS can figure things out.”

Or whatever.

We’re too far down the road to tyranny. In fact, we’re IN tyranny. Autocrats never lose. There’s going to be A Very American Coup and because we can’t get the conservatives-who-aren’t-MAGA to care, it’s going to be successful. There may be some violence and threats of secession, but in the end, nothing will happen.

It will all be decided at SCOTUS and it will just be a more extreme version of 2000. I just don’t see any other outcome. Even if there was a landslide, you have to actually count the votes, you know. TrumpBarr will either never let that happen, or they’re just going to sue everything and everyone to SCOTUS and win there.

Darkness is here. We’re in a dystopia. Get out of the country while you still can. Proles like me will just have to make do as best we can. I’ll be snatch off the street or pushed out a window by ICE soon enough. Maybe sent to a re-education came and die there. Who knows.

The only way that doesn’t happen is if people are willing to risk things important to them in the real world. I just don’t see that happening. And if they do, Qanon or whomever will respond in kind and the whole country will implode.

If that happens, then TrumpBarr uses the Insurrection Act from here on out. Maybe there will be a dystopian Second Reconstruction. Autocrats never fucking lose.

Good luck