Endgame 2024: Autocracy Or Civil War


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

But for the want of Donald Trump actually being “the guy from The Apprentice,” the United States would either be in the midst of a civil war right now or having the final stages of its transformation into an autocratic managed democracy occuring.

That was the thing that people like me totally missed about Trump. Sure, he has autocratic impulses, but he was in the end, all talk. It wasn’t the “Deep State” that was his problem — it was him. He was an incompetent idiot with no leadership skills who just thought things would magically go his way without knocking any heads.

But where does that leave us now?

Well, the issue of the day — civil war or autocracy? — has been punted down the road for about four years. There are about six Republicans right now chomping at the bit to do what Trump couldn’t do. And if they aren’t able to manage events properly, then there will be a civil war as we transition into an autocracy.

The issue is, the United States, politically, is now a zombie. It’s a dead Republic walking. Get out while you can, because things are going to get nasty and dark and a shit ton of people may die.

It’s going to happen in the winter of 2024 the way it’s going now. Congress — now controlled by the fascist Republicans — will do everything in its power to give the presidency to Trump, Trump Jr or whatever autocrat the Republicans nominate in 2024. Either they succeed peacefully or they don’t.

If they succeed peacefully, my big mouth gets me ships to an ICE “reeducation camp.” If not, then, well, I may die because a cache of WMD is stole somewhere in the United States and the two sides start killing each other THAT way.

Maybe I’m wrong. I often am.

But….

The Fire Next Time: How To Be A Left Wing Populist Demagogue


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It’s becoming alarmingly clear that my precious American liberal democracy is doomed. It’s fucked. For some significant macro demographic and economic reasons, we’re careening towards either civil war or autocracy. This is probably happening in the winter of 2024 as one side or the other freaks out over this this or that thing that the other side did.

So, with that in mind, I would suggest maybe the Left think about beating fucking cocksucker Rightwing nutjobs at their own game. So, if I was taller and more stable, here is what my platform for my Left wing MAGA wanna-be grift would be.

  1. Legalize Pot.
  2. Student Debt cancelation
  3. Breakup of Big Tech
  4. Extreme Regulation of any job-killing new tech
  5. Return of the an actual, honest-to-God progressive income tax
  6. National service of 18 months for new high school grads nationwide.
  7. A serious look at reoperations for slavery

    Sadly, even this is too nuanced for the dumb-dumb American electorate scared of brown people and women with sexual agency. Anyway, the point is, we’re so fucked. MAGA is going to pop out of its spider hole pretty soon and people like me — and maybe you — are going to get rounded up and either shot in the back of the head in American Killing Fields in upstate New York or put in some sort of weaponized ICE Camp.

    Something pretty big that I can’t predict would have to happen to prevent this.

The Fall Of The American Empire


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

If you work on the assumption that some pretty basic concepts about the United States that I assumed to be universal come not from us being a “city on the hill” but, well, because white people were pumping out enough babies to keep them demographically fat and sassy then, well…wow.

It kind of blows my mind that American liberal democracy rests not on American exceptionalism, but the cold, hard metrics of demographics. In fact, in a sense, the whole idea of America being a “melting pot” is a lie: even Germans were seen as a threat in the 1850s-1860s…and they were demonstrably white!

So, if you throw in the speed at which travel happens in the modern world, then pretty much everything wrong with American politics boils down to one thing: a dearth of white babies.

The abortion debate: white women need to pump out more kids!
Immigration: Scary brown people will bring brown babies!
Guns: We have to protect white babies!
Taxes: I need money for my white babies!

Ugh.

What conservatives want is things to go back to “normal” where white people are on top to a point where they don’t even realize they’re on top. As Ezra Kline says in his book, “Why We’re Polarized,” all the civil rights progress of the 1950s and 1960s was seen as largess on the part of the White Majority. Now that White People are nervous about a lack of white babies…screw you guys!

It’s all very disheartening.

All I can say loud mouths like me — who have the most to lose when America slips into autocracy — I need to get the fuck out of this country while I still can.

Fuck MAGA and its false orange prophet.

Thinking Seriously About A Second American Civil War


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Where to begin with this one. We have to accept that the United States’ political system is DL rotten to its core and a sizable chunk of the center-Right is chomping at the bit to start murdering people like me.

Barring something I honestly can’t predict, if there is going to be a civil war, it’s probably going to start in the winter of 2024-2025. Long term political trends are loaded in MAGA’s favor in a pretty massive fashion. So, if they can just not bungle the strangling of America’s liberal democracy then they’re set to turn the United States into an American version of Putin’s Russia for the rest of my life.

Just the Electoral College alone is enough to end America’s experiment in self-governance over the course of the next few election cycles. There will come a point when the gap between the popular vote and the Electoral vote grows so fucking enormous that we either start murdering each other in cold blood or we simply give up and slide into an autocracy where I end up in a weaponized ICE camp.

There is pretty much just one way an actual “second American civil war” happens in the United States — something happens during the 2024 election cycle whereby the forces that Trump unleashed in 2020 are taken to the next level. It’s not just the U.S. Capitol that faces an insurrection, it’s entire states that implode into waring governments on a pretty significant level.

The thing that blows my mind is how so many Southern “Lost Cause” fucking motherfucker cocksuckers stroke one out to the idea of a second civil war then come to this Website looking to suck their own cock. Guys, if you weren’t such fucking idiots you would let politics do all the hard work for you. No one gets hurt and you get your white Christian entho state.

But no, you are so angry over “cancel culture” that you want to murder people like me to….prove a point? Idiots.

Anyway, America’s political system is running on fumes. We’re in neutral. The first step towards are worst case scenario is Republicans win back Congress in 2022. (Which they will.)

Like I keep saying — we’re fucked. We’re totally, completely fucked.

Get out of the country if you can. Now.

Why Hollywood Needs More Movies Like ‘Greenland’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Greenland was a good, but not great, movie. But there was one specific aspect to the movie that I have to give it credit for — it wallowed in the tacit conservatism of a regular dude put in extraordinary circumstances trying to keep his family safe.

It was CIS comfort food on a creative level and I think we need more of that kind of stuff if we, like, don’t want the United States to buckle and a second American civil war break out. I’m being serious — a lot of regular old center-Right people I know are really beginning to seethe with rage over “woke” “cancel culture” and the idea that a major Hollywood movie is simply tells a heteronormative story is a change of pace.

I’m all for representation in art — I’m going way out of my way to do just that in the novel I’m working on. But I also find it amusing that even in the genre I’m working with, there are some tropes that if I flip them or toy with them cause me to end up in, well, some pretty heteronormative territory without even thinking about it.

The point is — there’s plenty enough room in this world for all God’s chillins. I love the liberal democracy I live in right now and I’m growing nervous that if the center-Left doesn’t get its act together we’re even more fucked than we might be otherwise.

Remember, all the CPAC cocksuckers need is to get their golden orange god (or someone like him) elected ONE MORE TIME and that’s it. We live in an autocracy for the rest of my life.

We’re fucked. We’re all so totally fucked.

Why ‘Second American Civil War’ Porn Is So Popular Right Now


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It all started with Ronald Reagan. It was Reagan who told the base that all their problems were caused by evil liberals. So, pretty much, it has been down hill from there.

So, here we are.

About half the American electorate is eagerly waiting a civil war where they are freed from the confines of “cancel culture” so they can murder evil liberals in cold blood without any consequences. I say this because most of this blog’s traffic comes from people in Red States obviously stroking one off in the middle of the night to the idea that if they could just murder liberals then they could provide for a family of five again even without a college education.

I look at my Webstats and it’s a steady flow of URLs from Texas, Tennessee, Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi and South Carolina who are very, very, VERY interested in some sort of Second American Civil War.

What is so nuts about all of this is if these people would just cool it and let politics take its course, they could get everything they ever wanted. But it definitely seems as though we’ve reached the game of …”but THEN what would happen” where the only logical conclusion is if “cancel culture” keeps going that good old boys in the South (and Mountain areas) will take it upon themselves to slaughter those evil, evil liberals in cold fucking blood.

This is the point where I say — if you’re on of those good old boys: eat shit and fuck off you cocksucker.

Anyway.

The point is, we are so totally fucked. Either there’s a civil war in about five years, or a strong man, a “man on a horse” takes over and strangles our fragile liberal democracy without firing a shot.

Anyone Who Thinks The Republican Party’s Embrace of Qanon Will ‘Destroy’ It Is Very, Very Naive


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Welcome to Weimar America. The clock is ticking for the American Nazi, er Republican…Party to seize control. Probably in the 2024-2025 time frame. The only thing that will stop it at this point is, I don’t know, the Singularity or First Contact. Or maybe Jesus coming back.

I say this because if you look at the Nazi Party, it was into some pretty bonkers things. It was very much into mysticism and conspiracy theories. The dead hand of history is just too powerful — the bad guys are going to win. We’re doomed and you need to either leave the country or move to a Blue State.

Now.

The next time the Republicans control all the branches of government, we won’t be as lucky as we were last time. Even if it’s Trump that comes back, he’s likely to be just a deranged figure head, with Mike Pompeo or Tom Cotton being the organized, youth autocrat who really pulls the strings.

As such, American democracy is dead. We’re an autocracy without an autocrat. Enjoy the few years of a liberal democracy while you can. Once the Republicans take over again, they’re going to weaponize the existing ICE infrastructure, purge the media and start to pull all our troops out of our various bases across the world

Fortress America will be here and American Killing Fields will be just around the corner. In fact, I would say the only thing that might bring down our new autocratic overloads will be their excesses. But Putin has been in power for 20 years now, so there’s no reason to believe President Tom Cotton won’t be president for 20 to 40 years as well. Soon enough, the United States will be identical to Putin’s Russia without even a civil war or a revolution.

It’s over.

It’s A Feature, Not A Bug: The Republican Asymmetrical Attack On Our Liberal Democracy


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

On a macro level, it’s not looking good for America’s liberal democracy. I’ve been reading a series of books about the threats facing our democratic republic and…oh boy.

Several different macro trends are crashing down on us all at the same time and the Republican Party has the wind on its back. The existential fear of the browning of America that is expressed through white identity politics is so severe within the Republican Party that all they have to do is return back to 2017 levels of control and, well, we’re fucked.

And, honestly, I just don’t see any solution to any of this. Something that I could not possibly predict would have to happen to stop America’s zombie-like march into an autocratic managed democracy like Putin’s Russia. The Republican Party is only going to grow more radical and bonkers in the coming years and when they have the power, they’re never letting it go.

I came up with a lot of dystopian hellscape political scenarios during Trumplandia and the more I think about it, the more I was just a few years off. Trumpism isn’t dead, it’s just sleeping. And if you want proof of that, just look at how badly “establishment” Republicans want to memory-hole the Dec. 6th Insurrection.

They don’t want any accountability. Much like the dynamic that happens after a mass shooting, they want us to just move on and forget out what just happened. As such, Trump would REALLY have to bungle his impeachment trial in the Senate for it to mean anything in the long run.

Not that he isn’t capable of doing just that — he is a massive self-own artist, after all — but as of right now, it definitely seems as though what happened with Trump’s first impeachment will happen with this one. The two sides will only grow farther apart and, in the end, the Republicans will come roaring back in 2022 and 2024.

Then the real “fun” begins.

I would leave the country if I could. But I’m just a broke-ass aspiring novelist. At least I’ve come up with some sort of gameplan when President Pompeo (or whomever) finally strangles American democracy and starts a war with Iran in hopes of bringing Jesus back.

‘Q Nation’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I hate to break it to you, but the bad guys are going to win. There continues to be a lot of chatter around that the Republican Party is going to wither away because it’s too growing too extreme and is too consumed with the bonkers Q conspiracy theory.

Sadly, I think the opposite is true — we have to accept that for a sizable chunk of the population liberal democracy is no longer seen as a legitimate form of government. There are a lot — a lot — of reasons for this, but generally I would say it boils down to white blue collar men without a college education not being able to settle down and expect “the American Dream” to be waiting for them as they grow older.

As such, they voted for “the guy from The Apprentice” in 2016, hoping for a Putin-style autocrat. That’s what they wanted. But that’s not what they got. Yes, plutocrats got their massive tax cut. And social conservatives got their hundreds of young hack MAGA judges. But, in the end, when America was spread eagle in front of Trump, he, well, he couldn’t get his figurative autocratic cock up. He turned out just to be an idiot, like Chauncey Gardner from Being There. So, while he had plenty of autocratic or fascist impulses and inclinations, in reality he just didn’t have it in him.

So where does that leave us?

Well, barring something I just can’t predict, we have about four years of something akin to a Weimar Republic ahead of us. Or, even more specifically, we have TWO years of being in political neutral, then another two years of the Republican Party plotting how they can consolidate power once they win back the presidency in 2024.

Republicans now wallow in white identity politics to such an extent that when they do get back to 2017-levels of control, they aren’t going to let the opportunity slip through their fingers again. It will either be the Velvet Fist of Lara Trump / Mike Pompeo or just Mike Pompeo (or someone like him) being full autocrat.

And, really, at this point, the question is not so much if America is an autocracy without an autocrat, it’s when President Pompeo has two years to consolidate power does he cause a secession crisis / civil war / revolution, or do we just slip into an autocratic fascist state without so much as a struggle.

I honestly don’t know the answer to that question.

All I know is the ICE infrastructure is going to be weaponized in about five years and people like me are going to be thrown into concentration camps. All my nightmares from the Trump Era were simply a few years too early. They would have happened if Trump had anywhere near the political acumen that I — and people like The New York Times’ Maggie Haberman — ascribed to him.

The next time around, however, I’m going to be right. And probably starving to death in an ICE Camp somewhere.

Fourth Reich: Hitler, Trump & The Rise Of The Patriot Party


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

In the spirit of wanting to be where the puck will be, not where it is, I’m reading a great new Hitler biography. It’s part of a two book biography and talks about Hitler’s rise to power up until 1939. It’s a very easy read about a very dark and deep subject.

As I have predicted for some time, the United States is now in political neutral and will likely be so for about two years until Congress flips to the Republicans again. This, of course, will be the setup to Trump or someone like Trump becoming president in 2024.

Enjoy your liberal democracy while you can, America, things are about to get dark. Really dark.

The only reason why liberal democracy survived is because Trump is an idiot. He had the entire nation prone before him, ripe for the taking and he totally, completely blew it. He was all impulse and no follow through. He just isn’t as smart as Putin or as bloodthirsty as Hitler.

So, this brings us to the prospect of The Patriot Party, which be, at first, simply the MAGA subset of the Republican Party. I’ve seen some Twitter liberals gloating about how great such a historic cleaving of the Republican Party would be and all I gotta say is — slow your roll.

If Trump did pull the MAGA element away from the Republican Party to start the Patriot Party, any victory that liberal-progressives would get out of such a situation would be fleeting. Maybe one election cycle. The macro trends that have the United States lurching towards an autocracy are just too powerful. Either we become an autocracy under Republicans in 2024 or one under The Patriot Party in 2028.

You pick.

So, in a sense, the American First Republic has already fallen, history hasn’t caught up yet. The Patriot Party is going to be like that slutty girl who will do the political buttstuff that our old girlfriend won’t do. Broken free from the moderating force of the National Review wing of the Republican Party (the “establishment”) The Patriot Party is going to break any law, destroy any norm, do whatever is necessary — even violence — to obtain and keep power as soon as possible.

I still think in hindsight Qanon will serve as the basis for a new Holocaust. This time, the United States will implode like Cambodia in the 1970s and there will be American Killing Fields filled with…gulp…people like me. It’s going to all happen so fast, it’s going to be a political history suckerpunch.

I just don’t see any way this doesn’t happen. Something I just can’t predict would have to step in and prevent it from happening. I’m thinking something like a limited nuclear exchange with the DPRK or something. Something big. Something so big it would overshadow the rise of fascism in the United States on a macro political level — or at least punt the problem down the road until, I don’t know, the Singularity or First Contact happens.

So, in short, read up on Hitler’s rise now to prepare for how you, on a personal level, will address something similar in the United States at some point in the next decade.

Good luck.