Tag: Fuck Interior Minister Bill Barr

Why I think The Durham Investigation Is Going To Indict Obama (And Maybe Biden) Before Election Day


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

First, if you’re a MAGA-Qanon fuckhead who’s stumbled across this looking for Durham porn to stroke one off to, fuck you, you piece of shit. Just because my worst nightmare is your fucking dream, doesn’t mean I want you around. Please fuck off. I’m serious. FUCK OFF.

Anyway, Trump is never leaving office for any reason. He would rather destroy the whole country, burn it to the ground, then risk any type of personal criminal liability after he leaves office. Despite what Maria “Money Honey” Bartiromo has reported, Barr is going to pop out of his lair and either say some sort of criminal referral has been done for Obama (and / or Biden) or at least give out some sort of “preliminary summary” that highly suggests this. How prosecutors could actually get a jury to indict Obama given that the whole thing is bullshit is beyond me, but I guess it’s at least possible.

But the point of it all would be this — to hurt Biden fatally on a political level. If that didn’t work, then Trump would use the firestorm around frogwalking Obama as proof that you could never do it to HIM. He would get the racist satisfaction of seeing Obama indicted and protection against his own criminal problems after leaving office.

Of course, Barr might surprise us all and somehow really pull some shit out of his ass and indict Hillary Clinton as well. That would be interesting.

Anyway, I’m going to be shocked if this doesn’t happen very, very soon.

How Blue States Could Win A Second American Civil War / Revolution

Excuse the hostage letter level technology.


By Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I am growing very irritated with fucking Proud Boys and Boogaloos stroking one out to the idea of a second civil war or revolution. So the above is my attempt to prove a point — if they face an existential threat, Blue States have a lot going for them.

Life During The First American Republic’s Twilight


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Whatever happens in the between now and, say, about April, is going to be cataclysmic. Either we turn into a despotic, autocratic managed democracy (of some sort) or we have a fucking civil war / revolution.

The interesting thing is, if we do go the latter route, it will be specifically because conservatives-who-are-not-MAGA get woke. In fact, I would say that’s our only hope at this point. If that doesn’t happen, then we really aren’t a free country anymore. The only reason why Trump might not go “full Putin” on us is he’s too lazy and incompetent to pull it off for a few more years. But the backbone of any type of real “resistance” to Trumplandia will be broken.

It will be just a matter of us slowly lurching politically, at least, to being nothing more than Putin’s America. We might have some continued delusion about how free we are because Trump won’t go after freedom of speech directly for a while, but that will be very ephemeral.

The weird thing about all of this, at least to me, is two absolutes are now racing towards each other. On one hand, we have the dead hand of history’s decision that our democracy is dead. On the other hand, we have the continued belief on the part of most Americans that we are a “free country” and effectively a democracy.

So if Trump and Barr aren’t able to win post-election via management of the media narrative we’re all in for a lot of trouble even if Trump wins a 5-4 vote at SCOTUS.

2020 is not 2000.

And if Trump / Barr have to force the issue to win, we are going to be facing an unprecedented existential threat to the Republic. In a way, I would even suggest that the treat is bigger than even the American Civil War because WMD might get involved. And no institutions may survive the conflict.

Regardless, I have no idea what is going to happen.

‘Manhattan Commune’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Revolutions have a dynamic all their own. It seems to me that there’s a big old pink elephant staring us straight in the face and we refuse to acknowledge its existence: something is deeply wrong on an existential level with the American Ancient Regime.

Coming soon to 5th Avenue?

This rot pops out every once in a while in a very conspicuous manner. The most recent instance of this is the absolute craven need on the part of Republicans to name Amy Coney Barrett to SCOTUS no matter what. The logic on the part of Republicans is so disconnected from any form of adherence to liberal democratic norms — or common sense — that is makes you sit back and think about the whole edifice.

Republicans aren’t shy to make it clear that they’re gunning for two politically popular aspects of modern American life: Roe V. Wade and the ACA. Both of these poll well above 50% and yet Republicans are lulzing this and licking their chops at the idea of doing away with them altogether.

This is not something that would happen in a functioning liberal democracy. Doing away with both of them would not happen in a vacuum and there would be major political consequences. In fact, I would go so far as to say Republicans are setting themselves up, at least in the case of Roe, for something akin to a reproductive rights Dred Scott Decision.

But there’s a chance the whole country might implode before that even can happen. It makes you wonder what that implosion might look like on a practical level. I would suggest you keep an eye on New York City. Because of its Deep Blue nature, should the absolute worst happen — some sort of implosion — New York City seems like the place where some sort of radical event might happen.

Something like The Taking of Trump Tower. Or maybe the gutting of Fox News headquarters in the city. That could set off a cascading series of events in which the populace rises up and sizes control of municipal government and some sort of revolutionary commune-like governance arises.

This sounds pretty bonkers. But if take a step back from the United States and stop looking as what you think it is and, instead, what it really is, it’s at least possible that this otherwise fantastical thing might happen. Once House Trump loses the Mandate of Heaven in Blue States, some pretty fucking nuts things might happen very, very quickly.

One thing I struggle to figure out is if you start at the end — the United States imploding — and work back, how, exactly, would Blue States defend themselves from Mad King Trump if he really wanted to take “total control” as suggested by his best bud Roger Stone. A lot would depend on what happened to the US Military.

If even that venerable institution wasn’t able to stay together, then, I guess, Blue States would have to organize their own New Model Army (or whatever) under the guise of the governors of individual Blue States. The legal justification for such a call up of forces eludes me. But if you have Red States breathing down your neck, I guess you could pull something out of your butt.

And, remember, the key thing to think about is any type of civil war or revolution would only happen if the natural inclination of the Fourth Estate to calm everyone down was unsuccessful. So, as such, it’s very possible that despite all my wargaming, we don’t implode at all, we just slip into an autocratic managed democracy with our eyes wide open. Barr will give Trump a thin veneer of legitimacy and, as such, he will be able to quickly consolidate power.

Trump’s such a fucking self-own artist, however, that even if he and Barr win the election through the “soft power” of media narrative management, he could single-handedly bring the country to its knees (and incite a revolution) from sheer incompetence.

A fish rots from its head, afterall.

I’m not advocating any of this. But New York City is a very interesting political situation. If my worst nightmare happened, NYC would likely be the first surreal flashpoint in the even more surreal collapse of the most powerful, most stable nation on earth.

‘Something’s In The Air’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I feel an existential unease in the United States right now. I’m reading a new biography of President Grant right now, and it alludes to how in the late 1850s everyone saw some sort of conflict rushing towards them.

While I may openly mull some sort of armed conflict in the United States, be it civil war or revolution — or both — as of right now I have no actual reason to believe any of that is possible. The United States is to big and too stable for it to simply, well, collapse. If anything, it’s going to slip, with its eyes wide open, into some sort of autocratic managed democracy like what is found in modern day Russia.

That definitely seems to be our fate.

I say that because of Trump’s “Spaghetti Strategy” when it comes stealing the 2020 election. He’s simply throwing everything he can at it in an attempt to see what sticks. And, really, from his point of view, you could say that he knows that post-election, all he has to do is control the media narrative and he is going to win. People will grow too frustrated with the process. Or too nervous about armed conflict. Or to confused. Or what have you.

Again, as of right now, I have to agree with him.

But I do like a good thought experiment, so I guess you could speculate he and Barr might be setting themselves up for a historic miscalculation? Maybe? And the source of that miscalculation would they would not appricate that no matter how much they control the media narrative there’s a chance that the whole thing would smash up against American self-perception. Americans believe they live in a free country and the “soft power” attempt to steal the election Trump and Barr are hoping for might not work.

If it doesn’t then — since autocrats never lose — they might be a bit more ham-handed in their attempts to steal the election, which would only make matters a quantum leap worse. But I’m making a huge strategic bet on something that, to date, simply hasn’t been there — the average person who is not on Twitter being willing to risk things that are important to them in real life in an effort to protect the sanctity of the Republic.

For the last five years, Trump has faced no real accountability. He’s had his worst impulses blunted, but in general, he’s gotten everything he wanted because of the Vichy, callow nature of Senate Republicans, among others. And there’s no reason to believe that if Trump took “total control” as Roger Stone would suggest that the entire edifice of the Republican Party wouldn’t go along with it.

And, as such, the final arbiter of this particular situation would be the American people, the volk, themselves. If nothing happens, then the First Republic fails and we enter the Trumplandia Era of the United States. After about 40 years, when the last of the Baby Boomers finally croke, then we can think about maybe founding a Second Republic from the ashes of the old.

Something pretty astonishing would have to happen, at this point, for us to not to slip into autocracy. Something I simply can’t predict. We have our fate in our own hands, but nothing to date has indicated we really care all that much.

Prove me wrong.

‘The Whisper’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It’s time America had “the talk.”

Not about where babies come from, but something just as existential — our national covenant.

I only even suggest this because there may come a time — very soon — when that particular issue is not nearly as abstract — or completely bonkers — as it seems right now.

We to start to at least think about re-imagining, rededicating, and renewing the social contract. How — or why — such a momentous decision might be foisted upon us remains a mystery.

But better to at least ruminate on what the goals of a Renewed American Covenant might be instead of being surprised when the question is poised.

Trump’s ‘Spaghetti Strategy’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

These are times that try men’s souls, as Thomas Paine would say.

The dead hand of history is well on its way to “sweeping aside the last vestiges of the Republic” as they might say in Star Wars. It’s all because risking things that are important to you in the real world — especially if you’re a member of the existing establishment — isn’t exactly something you feel obliged to do.

As such, definitely seems to me that it’s a foregone conclusion that the United States will be an autocratic managed democracy by the time Trump is sworn in for a second (stolen) term.

I say this because of Trump’s “Spaghetti strategy” for winning re-election — he’s simply going to throw everything he’s got at the wall and see what sticks. So if it’s not fucking with the postal service, it’s fucking with the actual selection of Electors. If it’s not that, then it’s the bullshit Durham Investigation. And, after about a half dozen other things, he’s assuming that the Russians will — as part of a quid pro quo for removing 1/3 of our troops from German — hack directly into our election systems.

So, in a sense, I’ve reached acceptance — there may be moments in the next few months when we think somehow we’re going to escape living in an autocratic state, but in the end, mysteriously, Trump will still be in office.

Autocrats, as they say, never lose.

As I’ve said many times — really, the only person who can change both our fate and that of Trump is, well, Trump. He has the entire edifice of the Republican Party at his disposal. So unless Trump self-owns in a pretty massive way, we’re going to collectively buckle and fall to our knees before Mad King Trump.

Something pretty spectacular would have to change for this not to happen. Something I can’t predict. And I just don’t see it happening.

I keep vacillating wildly between having hope that we might all get woke in time to fix this problem and acceptance that in the end not even Trump’s tendency to self-own would fix the problem.

I don’t know. Surprise me folks.

Second American Revolution: A Possible Historic Trump Self-Own


“…Whenever any form of government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the right of the people to alter or to abolish it, and to institute a new government, laying its foundation on such principles, and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their safety and happiness”
The Declaration of Independence


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

For about five years now, the laws of politics have been suspended. Trump has experienced little or no accountability for his autocratic inclinations. And, in a sense, what we face now was always going to happen — the only thing standing in the way of his dream of being an American Putin is the 2020 Election.

Bill Barr and Donald Trump.

That’s it.

Once he gets past that obstacle, he will finally achieve wealth and power beyond his wildest imagination.

And, really, if we see Trump as sort of an inverse of Gorbachev, then even if there was some sort of “counter-coup” on the part of Nancy Pelosi, Trump still wins. Or, put another way, the dead hand of history is now so powerful that some truly astonishing would have to happen for America’s slip into autocracy being rather prosaic.

So, in a sense, I think we need to start thinking about either leaving the country (if you can) or begin making arrangements for how to placate Big Brother win the time comes. I honestly think that’s our fate. We just don’t have it in us to do what is necessary to push back against the rush towards autocracy we find ourselves in on a macro level.

But, for no other reason than to make myself feel better, let’s imagine a scenario where Trump’s natural inclination to self-own gets in the way of his final consolidation of power. The only way I could possibly see this happening is if Trump and Barr’s attempt to secure the presidency through owning the media narrative somehow falls apart.

Something no one — especially me — can’t predict happens that suddenly changes the state of play on the ground.

A key issue is while Barr is The Brain to Trump’s Pinky, Trump is still fucking screw up. If things got tricky in an American obviously near revolution, I just don’t see Trump handling that situation very well. The New York Times’ Maggie Haberman can sell her soul for access all she wants — Trump is not a political genius.


Donald J. Trump, 45 President of the United States.
He is nothing more than a deranged version of Chauncey Gardner from Being There. That’s all he ever has been — he’s just a vessel, an avatar for some pretty fucked up existential problems in the American political system.

Before I go any further, let’s be clear — in my mind, all my running scenarios about how we might manage to have some sort of “Renewed American Covenant” is nothing more than me having way too much mental energy and maybe nerves about living in an autocracy. Trump was never going to get convicted in the Senate and as of right now, it seems that Trump is never leaving office for any reason, even if it means burning it to the ground. So, this is a serious flight of fancy. It’s meaningless. But it is fun, I guess, to daydream.

So, for Trump to pull defeat out of the jaws of victory, he would have to ring the Liberty Bell, if you will, in the hearts of the average American. He would have to do something — or be personally blamed for something — that went against the American sense of what it means to be, well, American.

That I have to essentially bet that something I can’t predict is how the nation I love is saved is not really all that great a situation. And, even then, I’m working on the assumption that that would just be the BEGINING of something that might lead to some sort of national renewal. And to get that Renewed American Covenant we would have to go through an unprecedented tragedy that I really, really don’t want it to happen.

This is just me trying to console myself by turning the abstract fear of what might happen into a more manageable concrete scenario I can roll around in my mind.

Or, put another way, I love to run scenarios and this just happens to be one that I can use to figure out how to get America back on track (if only after a significant shake up.)

But I guess it is possible that at some point between Election Night and Trump’s final consolidation of power in January, he screws up. Whatever he does is so bad that a lot of conservative-but-not-MAGA people abandon him. So much so that there is something of an Apocalyptic Rock Fight between MAGA-Qanon and everyone else.

So that would be the setup for a Second American Revolution. Trump, through Barr, gets a thin veneer of legality to his second term and yet somehow he screws the plan up and there’s some sort of “revolt” (probably starting somewhere like New York City).

He tries to put it down using the Insurrection Act, Something Bad happens as a result and finally, finally, FINALLY a few conservative-but-not-MAGA people begin to at least tacitly accept some sort of organize resistance-in-real-life-where-you-might-get-hurt-or-lose-your-well-paying-job happens.

This is all very serious, folks. This is not a video game. This is not an angry Twitter thread.

This would be real life.

A Second American Revolution?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The more I think about it, if you want to get all apocalyptic about it, it’s not a Second American Civil War we should be worried about it’s a Second American Revolution.

Would the Second American Revolution be more like the First French Revolution?

The reason why I say this is we’re looking at the existential threat facing the United States all wrong. While, yes, there are two sides to the conflict brewing within the United States, the case could be made that once we break the seal on this matter, no institution will be spared.

So, in that sense, it would be a lot more like a revolution than a civil war. The American Civil War actually strengthened a number of existing institutions in the United States after it was all done with. If, say, Trump attempts to take “total control” as Roger Stone would suggest he do, then any domestic insurrection would likely leave no existing institution untouched.

In fact, the United States may be completely re-magined if such a rebellion against Mad King Trump’s Trumplandia succeeded. A lot of bent up political reforms would explode out into the open rather radically in a very short amount of time and, as such, when all was said and done, future historians would definitely mark the looming conflict a “revolution” and not a “civil war.”

One reason why we think we would have a “civil war” instead of a “revolution” is we are, in our minds, fighting the last major domestic war — the American Civil War. But there was a American Revolution before that

.

Before we all get too hysterical about any of this, there are some caveats. We could still simply slip into autocracy with our eyes wide open and in a rather peaceful manner. Instead of any great historical drama, it would be a rather prosaic slip into a very American autocracy in the sense that Trump keeps doing what he’s already doing for a few years before the final boom drops. That would give people time to slowly grow accustomed to the change in the American experience and so it all turns into a lulz.

Only when, say, Q in a few years orders his followers to empty the cities and we have American Killing fields will anyone get too upset.

But, we are talking about a huge fucking moron named Donald Trump. He’s a massive self-own artist and, as such, out of sheer criminal incompetence he stirs up the volk in a way no one expects. Some pretty surreal political events might happen in quick success and before we know it, some sort of New Model Army has been established and not even the U.S. Military survives the implosion of the country.

As such, it’s at least possible that Trump without even really thinking about it pushes the country not into civil war, but revolution. Things grow far more radical for both sides and it’s not about states wanting to leave the Union or not, it’s about are we Trumplandia or are we America? Are we an American Union and, as such, take such a massive crisis as an opportunity to renew or covenant, or are we nothing more than a reflection of Trump’s ego? The stakes , as such, grow far more serious on a number of levels.

I will point out that usually it’s a war that leads to major technological innovations, so it’s possible to imagine a scenario where a lot of technology that’s kind of there-but-not-being-used like AI, MX, robotics and automatic comes roaring to the forefront of society because they’re used for military reasons in a desperate pitched battle for control over the geographic area currently known as the United States of America.

All of this is extremely fantastical. I struggle to even comprehend how an otherwise stable nation like the United States could find itself in a position where civil war — or revolution — is actually a near future possibility. It just makes no sense.

But here we are.

My Current 2020 Election Scenarios Ranked


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing you have to keep in mind is the United States is already an autocratic managed democracy like Russia, with only our self-perception standing it in the way of us realizing it. As such, liberal democracy is dead in here. In all honesty, the dead hand of history has made its decision — America, sooner or later, is going to be a nation where you can get snatched off the street for your political views.

So, if Biden somehow miraculously actually gets sworn in, what we all think is a Restoration is little more than a House Trump Interregnum. We might have about two years before MAGA comes roaring back by taking over the House. They will impeach Biden, then leverage that political gut punch to take back the White House in 2024. Unless something simply astonishing happens — that is our absolute future if Biden wins in 2020.

It may not be Trump who finally strangles the life out of Lady Liberty but human ostrich Tom Cotton. But let’s go down the list of election 2020 scenarios ranked from most to least likely.

The Durham Factor
In this scenario, Barr’s “preliminary summary” of the Durham Investigation works like a charm. Biden’s lead is reduced down to nothing. Trump wins without even having to fuck with anything. A lot of people are upset, but by the time the actual conclusions of the investigation come out — totally clearing Biden — it’s too late. Our liberal democracy has slipped through our fingers because we lost the media narrative.

A Mysterious Replay of 2016
Close behind the first scenario is the exact same thing as 2016 happens — Trump loses the popular vote, but wins the Electoral College. A lot of people will be angry, but the media narrative will be that Biden should accept defeat “for the good of nation.” Trump quickly consolidates power and that’s that. Only after about 40 years will we learn that the Russians hacked directly into our election systems in exchange for Trump removing 1/3 of our troops from Germany. Lulz!

A Trump Election Night “Victory”
This is all about the media narrative. Without really doing all that much — other than using Barr to pull legal justifications out of his butt — Trump wins for no other reason than the opposition is too weak and divided. This scenario is based on the available conditions and assumes the dead hand of history’s decision as to our fate is final.

Coup….and Counter Coup
This scenario is really wild and, in real terms, extremely unlikely because I just don’t see the opposition to Trump being able to use any mass anger against Trump effectively. But the idea that Nancy Pelosi might FINALLY fight dirty makes it a little easier to sleep at night.

The Coup
The key thing you have to remember is Interior Minister Bill Bar is going to fuck with the election in a very “Who, me?” kind of way. He did it with the Mueller Investigation and he’s going to do it with the election. In fact, I would go so far as to say his success in blunting the blow of Mueller Investigation has given him a very good understanding of what to do.

As long as House Trump controls the post-election narrative, they win. As things grow more and more unhinged, the pressure will be on Biden to accept “defeat” for the “sake of the country.” So, it’s easy to see a situation whereby somehow even though a coup takes place, The New York Times and others play right into Barr’s hands by not even recognizing that a coup has taken place.

And, really, Barr has every reason to believe he will win. So, it’s very possible that even if MAGA state legislatures simply seat Trump Electors out of spite, a wide swath of the mainstream press will go full Vichy on us. I could see this being the setup to not a civil war, but a fucking revolution.

In other words, House Trump and Barr pretty brazenly steal the election post-Election night by fucking with the selection of Electors. The New York Times‘ Maggie Haberman in a ever-so-droll way, signs away the Republic. She poo-poos the notion that anyone has the right to object to this theft and goes back to telling randos like me that I don’t know anything about (access) journalism.

So, this would be a moment of truth. I honestly can’t tell you which way the public would go. There might be some protestings here and there, but Barr controls the media narrative so completely that The New York Times focuses only on the violences associated with these otherwise peaceful protests and that’s it. We turn into an autocracy without even putting up a fight. Remember, the Women’s March has some pretty huge peaceful protests every year and the national press lulzes them because it’s just a bunch of angry broads, amiright?

The Counter-Coup
This is very iffy because of what I describe above. But let’s say Trump, despite “winning” so absolutely brazen in his theft of the election that he enrages enough of the population that Nancy Pelosi finally, finally, finally, finally, FINALLY really begins to play white knuckled power politics with Trump. She begins a game of chicken with him.

Now, the thing to remember is, there are a lot of different things that would have to go wrong for Trump for this to happen. A lot. He’s going to bank on a hard 5-4 vote in his favor at SCOTUS if it comes to that. And he’ll be right. But it’s at least possible that out of sheer desperation, Pelosi drops an H-bomb on Trump’s plans to steal the election.

She announces soon after the last 5-4 SCOTUS vote a two pronged attack against Trump’s coup. First, the House will immediately impeach Trump the moment it comes into session in January. But it won’t be a “skinny” impeachment, it will be a 10 article political MOAB. Everything Trump — and Pence have done over the last four years, from Stormy Daniels to general abuse of power will be thrown into the expansive articles of impeachment. Now, if the Senate hasn’t flipped, then lulz, this is all smoke and mirrors.

MoscowMich does exactly what he did with the first Trump impeachment. But, let’s suppose the Senate does flip. If the country is obviously beginning to fall apart at this point — which would be the only way Pelosi would actually have the guts to do any of this — then there might be a real shot that both Trump AND Pence would be convicted.

This is where things get tricky.

In an effort to placate some very angry Biden voters, Pelosi says she’s going to step aside and have the Democratic House name Biden as speaker of the House, thus putting him in line of succession. The argument that Pelosi could make is that desperate times call for desperate measures and one coup deserves another.

Remember, this would NOT happen in a vacuum. The entire country would likely be on the cusp of implosion at this point. And Trump could very well send in the D.C. national guard (or whatever) to Capitol Hill and try to disperse any impeachment proceedings. But let’s suppose that doesn’t work for some reason, maybe a massive human shield of voters or something.

So both Trump and Pence are convicted — in no large part because Senate Republicans realize the country is probably going to descend into civil war / revolution anyway — and Biden becomes POTUS in a very roundabout manner. He proceeds to name Harris as his veep, and the Senate approves her at a record speed.

If things have gotten THIS BAD, then obviously Trump — who is probably barely hanging on to his sanity — will hold up in the White House. But it’s reasonable to believe that rather than play Hitler-in-the-Berlin-Bunker, he steals Marine One and races to, say, the very CSA-friendly Mobile, Alabama.