Tag: Fuck Interior Minister Bill Barr

Donald Trump: Flight Risk


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m still not prepared to believe the Russians would allow Trump to lose. It makes no sense. Why allow such a valuable asset to be forced out of power? Why not hack into our election systems then “accidentally on purpose” get found out. A civil war breaks out when Republicans lulz this and win at SCOTUS. The Russians get the destruction of their main geopolitical foe.

But, let’s daydream. Let’s play pretend.

Politico recently did an article on Trump being a possible “flight risk.” I haven’t read the article — just saw the headline — so maybe they covered this already, but let’s mull where Trump might go.

There are two obvious places — Moscow and Pyongyang.

The reason Trump might leave the country is simple: he doesn’t want to go to prison. Now, of course, given how Trump and Senate Republicans have turned 1/3 of the Federal bench into a MAGA cheering squad, it’s easy to imagine a situation where SCOTUS not only validates Trump pardoning himself, but somehow pulls some bullshit explanation for why he can’t be indicted for state crimes, either.

That definitely seems a lot more likely than Trump leaving the country in a rather astonishing — and historic — fashion before January 20th.

But if Trump did do something so bonkers, flying to Moscow on AF1 then quitting right before January 20th definitely seems the most obvious. He would have the biggest country in the world to play with and he could spill all the state secrets he liked directly to the Russians.

I wouldn’t completely dismiss the DPRK, however. I say this because Trump definitely seems to have a personal affinity for “Little Rocket Man” and it would make a lot of sense for him to at least begin his post-presidential career hanging out with Kim Jung Un for a few months before flying to Moscow.

The only reason why I doubt Trump would do such a thing — even if he is a deranged moron — is even he knows because of SCOTUS he could beat any state rap and staying in the country would allow him to fuck with future elections and become the political Singularity of the Republican Party.

And, yet, Trump is a deranged moron.

So, I dunno.

The United States Is Careening Towards ‘The Big Ugly’ of Civil War or Revolution


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It definitely seems as though the Republican Party is going to be the dog that finally caught the car. A lot of anti-democratic trends that have been heading towards each other for the last 50 years are finally beginning to pay dividends for the Republican Party.

They’ve corrupted the judiciary. They will stop at nothing to delegitimize any election they don’t win. The list goes on.

As such, it definitely seems as though Trump could very well “win” because of Biden losses from a death of a thousand cuts. A 100,000 already cast votes here. Another 100,000 legitimate votes there. Add to this the Russians never allowing Trump to lose and a Federal judiciary full of young, hack MAGA judges eager to throw the election to Trump, and well, lulz.

The problem for Republicans is while they will “win’ their victory won’t happen in a political vacuum. While there’s a decent chance that any theft of the 2020 election will be just another 2000 — there’s also a good chance we could experience The Big Ugly. There could be significant political violence if Republicans get what they want.

And, yet, that political violence would have to get pretty severe for Republicans not to just lulz the whole thing. They are so completely by their craven desire to have power that Trump probably would see any political violence — even if it was started by his own followers — as an opportunity to invoke the Insurrection Act and take “total control.”

The point is — we’ve officially entered the danger zone. America’s political system is so taunt now because of the pressures of the 2020 Election that virtually anything could set off The Big Ugly.

I still think we need to keep looking at New York City. If Trump obviously steals the election, then before dawn breaks places like Trump Tower and FOX New’s HQ may have been gutted. I’m not advocating that, but just giving you a heads up as to how you might have some sense of how bad things may be about to get.

The True Tragedy of The Trump Era


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Two major historical events come to mind when I mull how the Trump Era — should it come to a close soon — will be viewed. One is Watergate. Not only was it the crucible through which America entered the modern era, it was all around a big old tragedy.

If anything, Trump has taught us a very crucial lesson about Watergate. We thought Watergate established a gameplan for how a president might actually be removed from office if his or her crimes were bad enough. In fact, Watergate was a very specific event with very specific characters that was not really any sort of gameplan at all. It was simply a fluke.

Or, put another way, it was a construct of the era in which it came out of. People in 1972 – 1974 had some sort of shame. Some sort of sense of honor. Two qualities that absolutely no one in the Trump Administration has.

The point is, however, that nothing was the same after Watergate. The Republican Party became the part of the people who were Nixon deadenders. That core group of people — in the guise of Reagan — would come roaring back in 1980 as part of the Reagan Revolution.

The Reagan Revolution is the other big event that the Trump Era gives us some insight into. The reason why Reagan’s election was so important was many of the problems that would lead to Trump first began to form. The Republican’s obsession with SCOTUS. It’s obsession with cutting taxes and social programs. It’s hatred of anyone voting. The list goes on.

The key issue of this moment in time, however, is how it was a psychological break from the past. The entire country began to take for granted a number of what were previously far Right concepts.

So, here we are in the Trump Era.

It will be the biggest shock of my adult life if not only the Russians let Trump lose, but Trump doesn’t somehow start a civil war just out of spite and a fear of going to prison should he leave office.

But should Trump miraculously leave office and a Biden Administration start, I just don’t see how things snap back into place. Trump isn’t going anywhere. He’s still going to be an ex-president. He’s still going to demand a spotlight and he’s still going to have a Twitter account. What’s more, he’s probably going to salt the earth on the way out the door.

One subtle change, however, the thing that we’re all going to have to deal with, is Trump single handedly radicalized much of the center-Left the way the Obama’s second term radicalized the entire fucking Republican Party. We were sucker punched by Trump’s time in office and so a lot of the native goodwill that many center-Left people might give Republicans simply doesn’t exist anymore.

In a way, both sides are now equally radicalized and suspicious of each other. The only real difference between Republicans and Democrats is the latter actually believes in liberal democrats norms. And Democrats have some sense of shame. Republicans, meanwhile, don’t give a shit. They are so fucking craven, so blinded by ideology that they were more than willing to fucking destroy the whole country if they think it might give them just one more young hack MAGA judge.

But I still just don’t believe Trump is going to lose. He’s an autocrat and autocrats never lose. Never. It’s going to be the Russians. Or SCOTUS. Or some combination of both that allow Trump to “not lose.”

And I just don’t see Americans having it in them to do what would be necessary to force the issue and drive Trump out of office — a General Strike. I believe TrumpBarr will simply grow more radical as necessary, invoke the Insurrection Act and that will be that.

As I keep saying, on a strictly political level, Biden is doing quite well. But Trump is an autocrat — if a very incompetent one — and, as such, will never fucking leave office. And if he does leave office, you had better be sure he’s going to demand a pound of political flesh.

So, in the end, even if Trump is out of office, everything will be different. Our expectations have changed. There’s likely to be a Trump Deep State that will aggressively work to bring down the Biden Administration at every turn. The Fox News faux outrage machine will constantly be looking for different ways to recapture the glory of the Trump Era.

Trump will be the Republican Party’s new Reagan. Everything they do, everything they say, everything they believe in will be relative to Trump. They hate democracy and see it only as a means to an end. About half a dozen would-be younger, brighter, more focused autocrats are already chomping at the bit to finish the job Trump has begun.

Remember — even after the disgrace of Watergate, the Republicans just barely lost to Carter in 1976. Barely. It was one of the tightest elections in history. And they came roaring back just six years after Nixon left office in disgrace.

Should Trump physically leave office, we’re probably going to have three to six months to enjoy it before Republicans will shit on it all.

But I still, still will be completely flabbergasted if Trump loses. Too many powerful people — including Trump himself — will fight dirty to ensure Trump stays in power as long as he likes.

Lame Duck Trump


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Using all metrics but one, the United States is about as stable a nation as they come. We have no history of significant political violence. We generally are rather complacent, even under duress. All in all, but for one metric, we’re in pretty good shape.

But then there’s the rot associate with our political system.

Our political system has pretty much ground to a halt. Republicans have embraced minority rule. The center-Left, meanwhile, while extremely divided, has become united for the moment around Joe Biden. With truely dumb speed-confirmation of Amy Coney Barrett, Republicans definitely give one the impression of finally casing aside any concerns about liberal democracy.

So, under such conditions, it’s very easy to imagine a situation where even if Biden wins in a landslide, TrumpBarr simply refuses to acknowledge it. They challenge every possible aspect of it, knowing they will always win at SCOTUS. Or, they could concede defeat, only to be such massive dickheads because they don’t have any accountability that that, in itself, causes the country to implode.

It’s easy to imagine a situation where Trump, fearing his own possible indictment after he leaves office, fires the current head of the FBI and names Rudy on an interim basis. Rudy frogwalks Biden and TrumpBarr uses it as a negotiating tactic to escape any accountability after he is physically removed from office by Federal marshalls.

I could also imagine a situation where he rather dramatically begins to saber rattle with the DPRK or Iran. Something, anything, that would give him the cover necessary to take “total control” and either not leave office or only leave office with some pretty significant concessions.

Now, as I keep saying, the about Trump is he’s so unstable that you just don’t know. You look at his past behavior — and his repeated statements in the last few days — and you very well come up with a pretty dark scenario. So dark, in fact, that not even a demostrable Biden landslide would be enough to prevent him from causing a civil war.

But is it even within the realm of possibility that an actual “civil war” would take place?

I honestly don’t know. It pretty much boils down to Trump himself. The entire fate of the United States at this point rests on Trump’s personal decision. He could very well lose and be such a monster on his way out that there’s massive political violence, which he uses to take “total control” and that’s how he stays in power.

That, in itself, would escalate the whole clusterfuck and the Russians get the Second American Civil War they want so badly. I keep thinking about any type of second civil war or second revolution and for the moment I have a lot of difficulty imagining how such worse case scenarios would occur.

But let me be clear — The Big Ugly, as I call such things — would not be “cool” it would not be “fun.” It would really, really suck. It would be a tragedy and we would all regret that it happened.

Let’s hope it doesn’t.

I Just Don’t See The Russians Letting Trump Lose


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Donald Trump is a very valuable investment for the Russians. All they would have to do to protect that investment is change votes in Pennsylvania and Florida just enough to make race as tight as possible — they wouldn’t even have to cause Trump to win.

Trump sues to stop the counting of votes as soon as possible on a national basis. He wins at SCOTUS because it’s now full of MAGA hacks and Trump “doesn’t lose.” What’s more, even if their direct ratfucking of votes was discovered “accidentally on purpose” the Russians would likely get what they wanted — a civil war. Even if we all knew the Russians changed votes, all that has to happen is Rudy to pop out of his crypt on CNN and yell at Chris Cuomo for an hour and that would be that. The Russians already said they want a civil war in the United States — the worse the better. AND they’ve said that Trump is “their guy.”

As such, the Russians allowing Trump to lose would be inexplicable.

#TrumpCoup: If All Else Fails, Trump Is Going To Dox Electors


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Trump is very difficult to predict. Which, to some extent, is his secret power. You just never know if he’s going to fold in a rather unexpected, dramatic fashion, or if he’s going to do some autocratic thing. He vacillates wildly between these two things.

What I think might happen is should all his efforts to steal the election otherwise fail him, he is going after the physical human beings that make up the Electoral College. I could easily see him sulking for 24 to 48 hours if Biden won in some sort of landslide (even under the autocratic conditions Trump has established ) and then popping out on Twitter with the names and addresses of all the Democrat Electors.

MAGA-Qanon rushes to their homes and threatens their lives if they don’t vote for Trump. Trump could fire the head of the FBI and name Rudy his “interim” replacement. They Electors are left out to dry on this front because of this. Trump could even use the violence that his own followers are then doing as an excuse to use the Insurrection Act.

But again, Trump is so bonker and unpredictable that I honestly don’t know which direction he’s going to go. I do, however, suspect he’s going to pardon himself. Or somehow get some assurance he won’t be charged with anything as a prerequisite for physically leaving the White House.

If he really wanted to be destructive, he could abscond from the White House on Marine One hand settle somewhere like, say, Alabama to incite a real, honest to God civil war.

#TrumpCoup: How He ‘Wins’ California


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It definitely seems as though Trump intends to sue on Election Night to stop the tallying of votes as soon as possible — probably by midnight. This, of course, would be a coup. What’s worse, California is notorious for how long it takes to count votes.

It’s easy to imagine a scenario whereby at the midnight Trump is ahead in California’s voting and he “wins.” This, of course, would be an even more brazen coup.

But I’m extremely reluctant to believe anyone would care. And, if they did, California might attempt to secede, which would be a win-win for Trump. Either they succeed and he gets to consolidate power or they don’t succeed and Trump gets to do a “MAGA Reconstruction” of California.

All in all, things look pretty dark. Trump is a rabid animal at this point, afraid of going to prison if he’s not in office, so lulz. Add to this my continued belief that the Russians plan to hack directly into our election systems as part of a qui pro quo with Trump for him removing 1/3 of our troops from Germany.

Or, put another way, a lot of very powerful people both domestic and abroad have an extreme vested interest in Trump staying in power.

American Has Entered The Most Severe Political Crisis Since 1860


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As I have said before, the biggest screw ups in history occur when one side makes a strategic miscalculation. Be it the American South in 1860 or the Germans in 1914, time and again history has shown that major historical events occur when one side believes that after a cost-benefit-analysis that the cost of achieving their goals is worth it.

With the American Civil war in particular, the South was probably — in the beginning — safe in their assumption that the North would say “wayward sisters, part in peace” and that would be that. It was only because of the leadership of Lincoln and his decision in late 1862 to make freeing the slaves a war aim that the tide turned.

So, if you look at America 2020, at the moment, MAGA-Qanon is reasonably safe in assuming that they can stage something akin to a coup in the courts and, lulz, nothing of note will happen. In fact, even I, at this point, believe they are right. I just don’t see “Blue America” being willing to risk “their lives and scared honor” in the real world in the manner necessary to save the Union as currently conceived. If all else fails, TrumpBarr will used the Insurrection Act and that, as they say, will be that.

And, yet, that hasn’t happened yet. It’s at least possible that while MAGA-Qanon will initially succeed in their efforts to steal the 2020 election via some sort of Very American Coup, that the conditions are such that the country implodes in a rather unexpected fashion. But let me be very clear — only in hindsight would we give The Big Ugly value or a narrative. While any putative “Second American Civil War” or “Second American Revolution” was taking place it would suck on a day-to-day basis and be a huge fucking tragedy that we will ultimately all regret we had to go through, no matter the ultimate endgame.

Such is the nature of such events.

I too often fall into the trap of giving The Big Ugly some sort of narrative. The reason why events like the Civil War, or WW1 or WW2 have such potency for millions of people is they’re scary as hell and pose an existential threat to how people view themselves and their nation.

So, in the end MAGA-Qanon could win and we devolve into something rather dystopian. There would be no assurances as events unfolded that the good guys will win. If you asked a person in 1942 what the outcome of the war was going to be, they probably would say the Axis Powers were going to win.

No person under the age of, say, 80 or so, has lived during through a prolonged crisis where there are battles that are won or lost that don’t really give you any immediate indication of how the war itself is going to endup. Put that same dynamic not in Europe or Asia but in the United States itself and we’re all in for a situation we definitely don’t want to go through.

All I’m saying is — the conditions are there for something not seen in the United States since the Civil War. Good luck.

My Current Nightmare Prediction For How Trump Wins


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It seems to me this is going to happen — record anti-Trump voting is equaled by Election Day voting by MAGA-Qanon. The race is extremely tight. So tight that Russian hacking into our election systems makes a big difference in key states.

Amy Coney Barrett votes repeatedly to narrow the scope of votes that will be counted and Trump wins.

That definitely seems to be what Republicans are thinking they can pull off as of right now. Autocrats — even incompetent ones like Trump — never lose.

Trump’s Coming Extra-Political Theft of The 2020 Election


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As I continue to say, Joe Biden is, on a strictly political level, doing quite well. If this was any other election in the last 50 years or so, I would say one would be reasonably assured that Biden would win in something akin to a landside.

Unfortunately, Trump is an autocrat — if an incompetent one — and as such will never lose. Here are my current concerns as to how that “not losing” might happen.

  1. Foreign Hacking
    A lot of very powerful people all over the world are quite pleased with the shitshot that is the Trump Administration. As such, they have the means, motive and opportunity to hack directly into our election systems. Either we don’t find out and we just assume the polls were wrong again like in 2016 or we find out and it goes to SCOTUS and they decide any questions in favor of Trump.
  2. The Dead Hand of History
    TrumpBarr are not really acting like they intend to ever leave office for any reason. So, it definitely seems reasonable to believe that, well, they won’t. Whatever law they have to bend or twist, whatever norm they have to break — they will. They will do it in broad daylight and the entire edifice of the Republican Party will facilitate it.
  3. A Hunter Biden Deep Fake
    I have begun to hear a little bit of chatter about some sort of Hunter Biden sex tape within far Right Twitter. If a deep fake was to pop out, that’s how it would happen — we’d hear rumors about some sort of sex tape and then it would mysteriously pop out in such a way that its validity would still be up for debate on Election Day.
  4. Political Violence
    It seems very possible that MAGA-Qanon might flip the fuck out and start blowing shit up if they got the sense that Trump might not win a second term. This would serve as Trump’s Reichstag Fire, even though his own followers violence was the thing that gave him the cover to take “total control” via the Insurrection Act.
  5. Amy Coney Barrett
    The whole nomination and confirmation process associated with Barrett has the smell of coup to it. It definitely makes one believe that Republicans are so blinded by their craven need for power for power’s sake that once she gets on the bench and reverses the recent 4-4 vote at SCOTUS about mail-in ballots, that that will give TrumpBarr the self-confidence to attempt A Very American Coup even if Biden ostensibly wins in a landslide.
  6. A Very American Coup
    It definitely seems as though TrumpBarr see Amy Coney Barrett as their failsafe. Even if the Russians hack into our election systems, change votes and are “accidently on purpose” discovered doing so, TrumpBarr know that no matter what SCOTUS will vote in their favor if there’s any sort of dispute. Or, if all else fails, they can use any such debate to allow MAGA state legislatures name their own Electors — even though the Russians specifically fucked with our election systems to set such a situation up.

    Remember, the entire media industry is designed to create our reality and to assure Americans that they live in a free country. Even if TrumpBarr was extremely brazen with a coup, I have every reason to believe that CNN and The New York Times might acknowledge what was going on, but would do everything in their power to tell people to be passive and allow the coup to take place.

    As such, I think we’re fucked. Totally, completely fucked. The bad guys are going to win and we’re going to let them. We’re going to be no better than Putin’s Russia. People will get snatched off the street and pushed out of windows within months of Trump stealing the election. All signs point to this happening even if, on a strictly political level, Biden wins. It happened in 2000, and I have every reason to believe it will happen in 2020.

    Prove me wrong.