Tag: First American Republic

The Third Great Cataclysm


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It’s at least possible when the United States finally buckles, it will be up there will the fall of the two Romes in its significance. The reason is — the United States holds the entire world together.

If we’re too busy killing each other — or we just pull a Dr. Manhattan on world affairs — everything is going to go tits up pretty quick. The number of dead could get up into the 100s millions.

I just don’t think the average person realizes how rotten the American political system is. When America at last buckles, it will happen so quickly that we won’t be able to process it.

The core issue is — is the United States going to have a civil war or become an entirely inward looking autocracy? As of right now, I honestly have no clue which of these two possibilities will come true — but I do know it will be one of them.

A lot depends on if House Trump bungles the transition to Truamplandia or not in the 2024-2025 period. If there’s a smooth transition to the “Velvet Fist” of, say, Ivanka Trump / Tom Cotton or Lara Trump / Josh Hawley, then, well, we’ll be an autocracy. But if they fuck things up like they always do, then we’ll have a civil war.

As I say, get out the country if you can.

Why A Second American Civil War Would Be Far Worst Than People Imagine


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

At the moment, at least, America is on edge. Because of the Texas suit at SCOTUS right now, pretty much the entire country is worried that the Court will take it up, rule in Texas’ favor and Trump will “not lose.” I say this knowing that using virtually any metric, the case is pretty much just a publicity stunt.

Me, 2024.

And, yet, it is easy to imagine that everything goes wrong for America. The case is heard, SCOTUS rules in Texas’ favor and Trump “doesn’t lose.” It definitely seems that on a political level, at least this is a very rea possibility. The whole point of the Trump’s three SCOTUS appointments was to ensure they voted for him in just this specific situation. I see a 6-3 vote in Trump’s favor if SCOTUS actually hears the case — which it still may not.

Then what?

Well, my guess is a sudden wave of rolling political violence across the country would force a huge amount of domestic political refugees. Reds in Blue states and Blues and Red state would bounce around until they felt safe. And THAT is the thing people who are so eager for a civil war don’t realize — once the two sides consolidate any civil war is going to get pretty bloody pretty quick.

Our future.

Add to this that it’s possible not not even the U.S. Military will avoid a division into Blue and Red and, well, not only is the United States fucked, but the entire world. As soon as we have our Fort Sumter moment and the fighting begins, four or five regional wars across the globe will break out.

So, really, pretty much the fate of humanity will then be at risk because of a failed TV gameshow host. Places like NYC might have a regular old revolution with some sort of Revolutionary government.

Soon enough, the two sides will get really radical and it goes without saying that the massive amounts of WMD floating around the United State will be inevitably seized by both groups and millions and millions of people will die in the ensuing civil war or revolution.

MAGA 2024.

The United States bombs — and gasses — itself into the stone age over the next 4 to 5 years until some sort of Man on a Horse pops up and unites the country again. Or something. I have no idea what would happen.

All I know is it would suck.

The Conditions Exist For Something Extraordinary To Happen In The United States Soon


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I find myself thinking about the French Revolution a lot these days. It seems as though while Neo-Confederate MAGA-Qanon cocksuckers are so busy thinking about masturbating to a Second American Civil War, they’re totally oblivious to the possibility of a Second American Revolution.

Or, to put it another way, Trump sliced the seal on Pandora’s Box and it seems as though the question is how bad things are going to get. Now, before I continue, the counter argument is that the Trump Era in itself was something of a Cold Civil War. And, while there’s no going back after that particular clusterfuck, in the end, a new equilibrium of sorts will be established and we’ll gradually drift into the New Normal of post-Trumpian politics.

But we WILL remain in the realm of politics.

In all honesty, that’s definitely what I want to have happen.

And, yet, it’s very easy to imagine a future historian describing the fall of the First American Republic, then revolution then civil war and then the founding of a Second Republic. This would not happen in a vacuum, of course. In all likelihood, there would be a World War 3 because of that particular chain of events.

But what, exactly, would happen and why? There are simply too many variables for me to begin to predict. And, yet, I could see Trump going transactional on Twitter which would incite the violence he needed to invoke the Insurrection Act and hunker down to stay in office the rest of his life. Then the military gets involved — maybe even implodes itself — and initially there’s Balkanization of the United States into different major polities (Texas, California, maybe Florida) and isolated incidents of Revolutionary governments being established in, say, places like New York City and the Deep South.

The whole post-World War 2 liberal order would be destroyed and something new created from the ashes. I mean, if big chunks of the globe are a post-apocalyptic hellscape because Sectreary of State Mike Pompeo thought he could “force” Jesus to return, then, well, things might be a bit different going forward.

As is usual with my worse case scenarios, it’s not like I can predict the future. And even if I did, it’s likely whatever happened would occur within a spectrum. The point is — either things snap back to a New Normal, or everything burns to the ground and it’s every man for himself.

The scary thing is, at this point, I honestly don’t know which one it’s going to be.