Tag: DPRK

How Trump Could Start World War 3


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I love me some worst case scenarios and it’s pretty easy to imagine The Darkest Scenario whereby Trump starts World War 3. It goes something like this — Trump successfully boxes Iran into a corner and they strike Israel in some major fashion.

Israel sees this as an existential threat and nukes Tehran. The entire Middle East descends into war. But what, there’s more. Once the taboo of using nuclear weapons is broken a number of the Usual Suspects begin to saber rattle. While India-Pakistan and China-India are obvious, it’s possible that the DPRK might make significant military moves again ROK.

Put this in context — because of Trump’s “love letters” with Kim Jung-un, our problems with the DPRK have evaporated. But once Trump is out of office, the DPRK could come roaring back to the front of our consciousness.

Or, put another way, given how unstable Trump is, it’s not too difficult to imagine something happening in the final weeks of Trump’s time in office that causes him to switch gears with the DPRK in some dramatic fashion.

Remember — the DPRK has the means, motive and opportunity to use city-killer bombs on the United States.

What Might Go Wrong For House Trump



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

First, let me be clear that the bad guys have already won and there’s nothing we can do about it. America is now a fascist state and the sooner we start to internalize this new normal, the better. So the following is more a bit of summer daydreaming than anything else. But I like to run scenarios and, as such, I thought it might be interesting to case out the ever-so-slight weaknesses to House Trump’s consolidation of power.

Trump’s Mental State
This is a very unpredictable variable. The reason I say this is it’s too easy for people like me to simply wave my hand and say, “Oh, by that point, Trump will finally go bonkers.” But it’s also a very real possibility that Trump will simply become an American Brezhnev and never quite get so bad as to be forced to leave office. To call him a functioning adult is already an extremely charitable assessment and absolutely nothing is being done about it, so, lulz.

So, it seems to me that what might happen is as Trump gradually grows even less functioning that people like Jared and Interior Minister Bill Barr will pick up the slack. It’s my impression that they already do that, but they still have a lot of room for growth in their power behind the throne.

Really, I guess what might cause some problems for House Trump is if Trump himself is confronted with an outside event that his mind simply isn’t able to process. This has already happened with the COVID19 pademic, but he’s largely righted himself. Hence, something else would have to happen that would lay bare that Trump should no longer be in office, fuck how close we are to the election.

The only things I can think of that might trigger such an unlikely situation is either a war or Trump’s criminality fusing with his insanity in such a way that his popularity dips from 38% to something closer to 20%. But that is really something we can’t predict. It would be something extremely unexpected. So, in a sense, it’s simply a liberal fever dream to think it might happen at all. The only reason why I bring it up is, well, maybe it’s part of my personal effort to process that I now live in a fascist state?

Electoral College Shenanigans
Another possibility is something happens that causes Trump is finally snap in a demonstrable fashion. It’s possible that the very thing I see as the single biggest existential flaw in the Constitution — that we have to rely upon Electors who are human being to vote for president — might cause House Trump some problems. Humans are notoriously weird — especially when power is involved — and if Trump simply can’t process that the Electors might vote against him despite his best efforts to steal the election, he might do a very ham-handed power grab that would turn the country against him in a major way.

I used to think that might be his possible downfall, but the more I think about it, since we’re a fascist state now, Interior Minister Barr would simply pick up the slack and Trump would continue to be president. Things are really, really politically dark in the United States right now and I fear Twitter liberals are rather oblivious to how nasty things are going to get in the coming days.

Really, as I’ve said before, the only clear cut way I could see House Trump facing any accountability for the next 20 to 40 years would be Trump bungling a war with the DPRK and being personally held accountable for, say, Alabama being vaporized by a off target DPRK ICBM.

That might do the trick. Maybe.

DPRK & The American Mad King (A Scenario)


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It’s demonstrable that the president of the United States is just barely hanging on to his sanity. Trump is very unstable and erratic, especially on Twitter which is apparently a direct link to his Id. But, to date, he’s managed to keep it together enough that nothing TOO dangerous has happened.

Now that we’re in August — which is a pretty shitty month for news — let’s think up a scenario whereby Trump’s craziness goes from malevolent uncle to destroyer of worlds.

There are many, many scenarios one can think up. But the one that is the easiest to plot out is something to do with North Korea. It’s generally believed that only a crazy person would poke that particular bear unless their was an absolute reason to do so.

To date, Trump’s bonkers behavior has gone the exact opposite direction — he’s be a real suck up to the worst tyrant on the planet. And, in a sense, that’s been for the best. At least we’re not worried about a limited nuclear exhange.

But, let do that now.

The thing about this scenario is it could happen at any point while Trump is president. It could happen today, it could happen two years into Trump’s stolen second term. It’s not like history gives a shit about anyone’s particular political agenda. There’s a reason why they say, “Death be not proud.”

Anyway, for the purposes of this scenario, this happens sooner rather than later. Like August 2020. What prompts Trump finally losing his mind is his absolute need to win re-election smashes into his realization that while he is obviously going to successfully steal the election, it’s going to involve a lot of work and he’s lazy.

So, let’s say he REALLY snaps and he turns his eyes to the DPRK.

The first thing that would happen is we wouldn’t know it had happened. Trump’s been so unstable for so long that the America media works pretty hard to hide it from the public. So, it’s likely if he really did snap and started to see war with the DPRK as an easy way to win re-election “fair and square” we would think he was “joking.”

If something happened and Trump felt offended by Little Rocket Man, he might start to rant about the need to whip the DPRK off the planet. Or he would pull out all American civilians associated with AFK, which would seriously spook the North Koreans.

Once he actually started to do something demonstrable like that, people would sit up and take notice. This wouldn’t be “joking,” this would be serious. The major miscalculation Trump would make — because he’s stupid — is he would see a bloody three month war with the DPRK as simply something he had to do to win re-election.

What he wouldn’t think about is the DPRK, if it felt it had an existential threat on its hands, would likely shoot off a few ICBMs with H-bombs on them our way. And I have no confidence in the DPRK’s guidance equipment. Just because it’s supposed to hit, say, DC, doesn’t mean it won’t veer off course and hit, say, gulp, Richmond.

Anyway, the point is, Trump screwing up a war with the DPRK and being blamed for it is pretty much the only way I can possibly see Trump ever leaving office for any reason.

Some Surreal Possible 2020 Futures


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Here are some possible — but reasonably unlikely — bonkers things that may happen still in 2020.

A War In Korea
Weird things are happening in Korea right now. If I was the DPRK, I would shoot my shot right now, both figuratively and literally. The United States is not only extremely distracted and divided, it has a deranged bonkers Mad King as its ruler. If it wants to prove a point — any point — now is the time to do it.

Trump AND Pence Get COVID19
I don’t want this, but if tonight’s MAGA Nuremberg really turns out to be a strategic superspreader event, there’s a good chance both the president and vice president may be temporarily incapacitated. Nancy Pelosi would become acting president and for a few weeks and things would get VERY VERY SURREAL.

Trump Loses It
There’s a chance that Trump really will lose it and all kinds of crazy shit might happen. His criminality and his insanity might fuse and he’ll start to personally attack Electors.

Trump’s Misogyny, Kim Yo-jong & The Potential For War


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m the Brian Fellows of armchair observations about North and South Korea. I don’t know anything, but I do have opinions. It seems as though the NORKs are about to saber rattle a little bit in some way (maybe) and if they do, then it seems pretty obvious that Trump is such a misogynistic moron that he may bungle it. All simply because he hates women and it would be Kim Yo-jong, not Kim Jung-un that he would be facing eyeball to eyeball.

The key thing is Trump simply can’t handle strong women — even if they’re nasty, vicious women like I suspect Kim Yo-jong probably is — and if she does some saber rattling, Trump may endup causing an esclation such that LA or NYC is vaporized by a nuclear-tipped NORK ICBM.

But I don’t know, I just don’t know.

It seems as though things have died down. I think we’re safe for the time being. Maybe the recent weird statements out of Pyongyang were simply the usual bullshit.

Let’s hope.

North Korea is such a blackbox that it could mean anything. Maybe they’re about to freak out on us in a big way, and maybe they’re not.

Scenario: Trump As ‘War President’ In A Conflict With The #DPRK



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I have no special insight and I can’t predict the future — at this point, I seriously doubt the DPRK is going to do anything out of the ordinary in the next few days.

But, just for “fun”, let’s run the scenario of Trump being a “war president” because of some shenanigans on the part of the DPRK. I think the key thing we have to understand is how bad Trump is at his job.

When the war was won — and it would be won by the USA — it would be despite Trump, not because of him. And the economy, already in recession, would be pushed into a pretty deep, short depression if all of the ROK was knocked off of line because of a war with the DPRK.

In fact, what I think would happen would be it would be Trump himself who would bungle the war with the DPRK if it ever came in the sense that what any normal POTUS might simply see as the usual DPRK bullshit, Trump might see as an opportunity to win re-election.

He might rapidly escalate things in a way that he shouldn’t and pop goes the world.

I hope that doesn’t happen. I really don’t.

Worst Case Scenario: The DPRK, Russia, Ukraine & The Whole Shebang



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Things just keep getting worse this year.

The thing about war is one you let slip its dogs, instability suddenly whips around the globe at an alarming rate. So, in a sense, if the DPRK really did flip its lid and attack the ROK on some meaningful way, that wouldn’t be the end, it would be the beginning.

It’s likely several hotspots elsewhere around the globe would flare up rather abruptly and violently. I’m thinking Russia-Ukraine and India – Pakistan. Though India and China have been eyeball-to-eyeball the last month or so as well.

I honestly don’t expect such a dire situation to happen, but there’s one thing I know about the Koreans — however the two Koreas are united, it’s going to be in a really weird manner.

Like, historically surreal.

We under estimate how weak the United States probably looks to people like the NORKs. Whatever border goals they might have, now is a put-up-or-shut-up kind of moment for them.

I have no idea what is going to happen. But I don’t like how things have suddenly gone, if not 0 to 100, at least 0 to 40 extremely rapidly.

The Day Before

We’re fucked.
Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It is growing more apparent on a daily basis that Trump is losing his fucking mind. Now, if he was still a Right wing celebrity Twitter troll then this would not be a big deal. It would be dealt with in private and Access Hollywood might made a passing reference to Trump retiring from public life to “spend time with his family.”

But, fuck, man, the guy’s president. So, it does not take much to pace out a scenario where Trump is so out of it that out that out of sheer incompetence there’s some sort of “limited”nuclear exchange between the DPRK and the States. The only reason it would be “limited” is if for some reason Russia and China sat on their hands and watched the whole thing go down.

It could go down like this — Trump is so totally out of it that he boxes in Kim for no damn reason. Things get really, really tense and Kim feels he has no choice on an existential level but to take down as much of the States as he can. Kim lobs a few ICBMs at the States, maybe blowing up — if he’s “lucky” LA, Chicago, DC or NYC. I have my doubts on how many of the intended targets would actually be successfully struck. Remember, it’s generally assumed that the DPRK has H-Bombs, so in theory we’re talking a citykiller bomb exploding over Hollywood or Wall Street.

Trump nukes the shit out of the DPRK and that’s that.

Several million (5+) people are dead and we, at last, end Trump’s reign. Though, it is just as likely that we’re already in the dystopia and, well, even though Trump gross incompetence was the reason for a few million American deaths, this will be used to abolish the Constitution and, well, we’re just as fucked as we would be anyway.

All I know is it’s self-evident, at least from Trump’s Twitter feed, that he’s not well and he’s getting worse every day.

Now what.

Given today’s unsettling news, I suggest you watch the very beginning of this trailer for the “scariest movie ever made.”

Remember, war doesn’t happen in a vacuum. If, say, Iran and Israel go at it and Israel uses a few nukes on Iran, that would likely be such a staggering historic event that both the Indian subcontinent AND the two Koreas may go poof (and take a us with them.)

I’m Nervous About The DPRK

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

Donald Trump is a big old doofus and as it seems the DPRK may be preparing a new missile test, there’s a chance that they’ve finally realize this as well.

If they did start shooting rockets off and testing H-Bombs again, everything would change pretty quick. And this would be the backdrop to Trump going to war against the Legislative Branch. Leave it to Trump to cause a nuclear war between the United States and the DPRK through sheer incompetence, then turn around and use it as his personal excuse to go full dictator.

You know he would, too. If he managed to bungle his way into a shooting war with the DPRK and they managed to blow up, say LA or NYC or DC, he would likely declare martial law and hunker down for the rest of his life.

I have no easy answers on that one, folks.

But maybe I’m wrong. Maybe things aren’t quite as dire as I fear.

My Prediction: The United States Will Be At War With The DPRK By August 2018

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

I have predicted this several times in the past, but while we were busy minting coins for the summit, people thought this was uninteresting, but maybe not so much anymore: we will be at work with North Korea by mid-August 2018.

I predict this because Trump lacks basic human empathy and I doubt he would see the loss of 1 million lives in exchange for there being no Blue Wave and he reaching the poll numbers he so craves. So, that’s my logic at least.

We’ll see what happens.