Tag: Default

It Definitely Seems Like America is About To Default

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Welp, I think America is going to default. Or, more specifically, I think we’re going to default, Biden is going to be forced to invoke the 14th Amendment and it gets throw into the lap of the hack MAGA judges who want to destroy America so we become an autocratic white Christian ethnostate.

Then, in turn, once all that is figured out, MAGA House Republicans will strike — they will impeach Biden for “abuse of power” and that’s what we’ll be focused on for the next few months while we suffer through a severe global recession o a par with the Great Recession.

Now, obviously, having such a horrific economic situation ahead of us definitely would focus the mind of pols in Washington. But I think because MAGA Republicans are so tyrannical and politically bloodthirsty that they will lulz everything because a default will help them transition the US into an autocratic white Christian ethnostate.

So, there you go.

We’re fucked.

Or not.

I suppose it’s possible we’ll somehow muddle through yet again, but I have my doubts.

The Political Implications of America’s Looming Default

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Here are, in no particular order, the political consequences of the United States defaulting.

Trump Will Probably Win In 2024
A default would hand Trump an economic gimmie on a massive scale. Unless something none of us could possibly predict, America defaulting all but assures a second Trump Administration. In short — we’re totally, completely fucked. I still believe that Trump, in the end, will be something of a transitional figure with his MAGA Nazi successor being the person who finally consolidates power and turns us into a Hungary-like illiberal democracy.

Probability of Revolution / Civil War Grows Greatly
By definition, a default would not only totally scramble the world economy — maybe causing the Second Great Recession — but would also destabilize the United States to the point that when the 2024 election rolls around, we either have a civil war (Reds leaving the Union) or a revolution (Blues overthrowing the Red Nazi autocratic state.) Regardless, it’s going to be fucked. It’s going to be horrible and there’s a real chance that WW3 will happen while the United States is too busying imploding to keep an eye on global hotspots.

UBI Becomes Closer To Reality
A severe recession would give companies the cover they needed to use AI to replace many, many, MANY jobs, to the point that it’s even possible that implementing some sort of UBI will be a major campaign issue of the 2024 presidential cycle. It’s possible that it will become clear to everyone that AI is going to end most jobs and the government is going to have to step in. If nothing else, AI’s impact on the economy and society could be far bigger than any of us imagine when it comes to the political landscape of 2024.

Biden’s (First?) Impeachment
MAGA Republicans in the House are already itching for an excuse to impeach Biden and WHATEVER he does in the context of a default that doesn’t involve screwing over the Poors will be enough for House Republicans to ram through an impeachment. It’s a testament to how dumb and ill-focused House Republicans are that they haven’t managed to come up with an excuse to impeach Biden, even though their base obviously wants it really bad.