Tag: COVID19

The Fire Next Time

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

There is growing chatter online that because of rising COVID cases that there may be some sort of move towards a return to pandemic-era restrictions. I just don’t see such a thing happening.

There is just no political will for any such thing to happen. The number of COVID cases could surge to dramatic, frightening levels and there STILL would be no political will do go back to any pandemic restrictions.

Everything is very much up in the air about what might happen, so it could be that we’re going to get really worked up over nothing. But the fall and winter is usually when there is an uptick in things like COVID and so it’s at least possible that that might happen.

But, like I said, even if things get really, really dire and we have 1 or 2,000 deaths a day, just like the bad old days and, lulz, the outrage over any form of restrictions would be so intense that absolutely nothing would happen. We would just take it for granted that way, way, way more people are dying of COVID than is necessary.

I continue to fear that we may see a dramatic twist of fate in the near term that will throw all of our expectations about the 2024 presidential election cycle up the air in a big way. What that might be, I have no idea.

Future History: The Omega Variant


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

My fear at the moment is we’re not looking at the COVID19 pandemic in the right way. In fact, we need to readjust what we think the endgame may be. What if, in a sense, we’re all lulled into a false sense of security by COVID19 gradually being considered endemic.

And then, a year or two years from now, largely because of people refusing to vaccinated, it’s possible that really, really deadly version of COVID19 — the Omega Variant — might pop out. So, while everyone keeps taking about how “next time” will be a lot worse, it could be the Fire Next Time is nothing more than the Fire This Time rebooted.

So, not only could this be The New Normal, but it’s also possible that all of this is the set up for a far darker situation at some point in the future. And should the Omega Variant happen, it would happen with no notice. We would just wake up one day to news that the number of people dying from COVID has jumped from 2,000 a day to 10,000 (or more) a day.

And away we go.

If we were talking 10,000+ people dying a day in the United States of a COVID19 variant, it would freak everyone out and greatly change the political equation. Now, a lot of this would obviously depend on vaccines and therapeutics not working. If vaccines were really working and it was 10,000+ UNvaccinated people dying a day…oh boy.

Anyway, I suggest we reflect on what’s going on and COVID19 and maybe change our expectations some.

2022’s Coming Battle Royale Over COVID’s ‘Endemic’ Status


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Seems like the next major battle after Cancel Culture and CRT will be FOX “News” ranting at the top of its lungs that COVID is now “endemic” and fuck you. They will night after night lay out why they think around 2,000 people dying a day from COVID is just “a fact of life” and why is it we can’t get more tax cuts and young hack MAGA judges?

The reason why this is going to happen is, as I understand it, something being considered “endemic” is pretty much totally subjective. The issue is — how many people dying a day from something is a society willing to take? Red States are tired of the pandemic, so COVID is endemic, while Blue States are aghast at how many people are dying every day from COVID, so it continues to be a national health emergency.

And because of how subjective things are, this gives Fox “News” a huge opportunity to do what it always does — scare the shit out of white people about “evil libtards” who want to control them and divide the country between Red and Blue.

So, it’s easy to see the battle over COVID’s status being yet another bow in the FOX “News” quiver in their rapacious drive to flip Congress. They’ll play their audience like a xylophone, bouncing back and forth between CRT, Cancel Culture and COVID being endemic.

You already see FOX News doing this, they just don’t use the term “endemic,” probably because they don’t want to sound pretentious.

COVID In Blue & Red


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m the red headed step child of my family on a political basis. My family is made up of bed rock Traditionalists, while I’m the paste-eating libtard weirdo. I would note, however, that it’s only since the rise of MAGA that the lines have hardened. I’m not really that liberal, but I’ve been forced to pick a side and I fucking refuse to ignore that MAGA is run by a fucking moron who is thisclose to being an autocrat.

Slings and arrows, and all that.

Something I find myself talking to the Red people in my life a lot these days is COVID. It is very interesting how different the two sides see this particular macro event in our nation’s history. I see it as a national health crisis, while my Red family members are just tired of it and want to move on.

One issue that is a bone of contention is when does the pandemic become endemic? When do we just take COVID for granted and see it as just another risk associated with being human? Even under the best of conditions, talking about this with my Red family members can seem like going in circles. They want to compare 1,000 people dying a day to other forms of death. And I keep saying, “But is cancer contagious? Is heart disease contagious ? Is an accident contagious ?”

I totally get why people are so tired of the pandemic. I get it. I really do. And we’re so divided as a nation at the moment that there will likely come a point when 48% of the population shrugs and decides COVID is endemic, regardless of what libtards say while 48% will still see COVID as a national health emergency.

So, as always, we’re fucked.

A New Era: Let’s Rock


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Ugh. Why is everything so dumb.

Nothing I write here will make any difference. But tonight I’ve been watching a a Netflix documentary about Studio 54. It has gotten me thinking about the macro trends that prompted the popularity of Studio 54.

The key issue at hand is getting COVID19 behind us. But success requires risk and a willingness to get ahead of the curve. Yet let me be clear — this is just me mentally masturbating. Or, put another way, this is the tycoon version of me in late 2006 – early 2007 in Seoul who was both DJing at the best expat dive bar in Seoul while publishing a monthly magazine for expats.

I’m hungry.

And I’m not suggesting that any of this means anything — it doesn’t. I would have to win the lottery to make any of these dreams come true anytime soon, but I just wanted to note that once we finally get over COVID19 that people are going to want to party.

But all I’m saying is there’s a good chance that we’re just about to enter A New Era of some sort. It’s risky to make any assumptions on just your gut, but how else are you supposed to “disrupt” anything?

This, only in New York City.

I think back on Nori in Seoul, the little dive bar I used to DJ at and think about how much fun that was. What if you could transfer that dive bar’s great vibe to a bigger venue in New York City somewhere? Say, maybe the East Village. You get basement space that’s Studio 54-big, but design in such a way that it feels really intimate and the dance floor would be so tight that people would get all hot and sweaty and exited when just the right song was played.

Meanwhile, where’s our Spy Magazine? We have the undead Gawker, but it just doesn’t have the snarky spite of the old Gawker. And music, why is it so hard for rock music to come back as popular form of entertainment?

I think what I’m feeling is nothing more than nostalgia. That’s it. For what I want to have happen, happen, I would have to have access to several million dollars — at least — and connections, a shit ton of connections.

Anyway, I just had to get that out of my system.

Omicron: Sometimes, They Come Back


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

We all have been working on the assumption that COVID19 would come and go and later at some point we would face The Big One. This new pandemic would be separate from COVID and be so bad that we would look back at the years 2020 – 2021 and realize we really didn’t know how good we had it.

Yes, but.

It’s beginning to dawn on me that there is a real chance that The Big One may be nothing more of a continuation of the original COVID19 outbreak. Or, to put it another way, what if 2020 – 2021 is seen by future historians as analogous to WW1?

We could face a new, highly contagious and deadly COVID19 variant that is not something independent of COVID19, but rather a variant of it. It’s easy to game out a situation where we go through off of this again with the same virus, but we end up with far, far, far more people dead.

How likely is that to happen? I honestly have no idea.

But it is a hyper modern Modern Problem for us all to mull. It’s very possible that sooner rather than later our entire world could be upended by the same virus that’s been doing it since late 2019.

When To Panic About Omicron


by Shelt Garner
@shetgarner

I am not an expert. You probably should aggressively ignore anything I have to say. But I am pretty good at running scenarios, so let’s go through what would be a few “tipping points” on the issue of Omicron (or something similar) that would force us all to sit up and take notice.

  1. We Learn Vaccines Aren’t Working
    Vaccines are our first line of defense. But I am hearing conflicting messages about Omicron. I’m hearing that it’s a lulz if you’ve been vaccinated. And I’m hearing it has significant breakthrough data. So, I don’t know. It seems we pretty safe for the time being on that front.
  2. It Spreads A Lot Faster
    This definitely seems to be something going on with Omicron. If your community is unvaccinated, it moves a lot faster within your community.
  3. The Mortality Rate Is Far, Far Higher
    In the end, I again use the metric I used with COVID19 when it first came out — how many people are dying or getting really sick? I thought it was going to be A LOT of people, when it turned out to be far less deadly than my initial belief. So, for me, at least, we would have to have the three strikes of blowing past vaccines, spreading a lot faster AND the death rate being a lot higher (even for the vaccinated) before I would grow too concerned.

    For the time being, I’m taking a wait and see approach, as should you. Grab a towel. No need to panic.

Is The Omicron COVID19 Variant My Feared “Omega Variant?’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Some time ago, I worried out loud on this blog about the possibility of a super potent COVID19 variant I called “the Omega Variant.” The announcement today of the existence of the “Omicron” variant has again got me wondering if my dire predictions might come true.

For it to be what I feared, the Omicron variant would have to be so much worse than the original COVID19 everything would be thrown up in the air in an unprecedented fashion, very, very rapidly. In fact, the very existence of our current concept of the modern world would momentarily be put in doubt. Hundreds of millions of people all over the world would have to die in quick succession.

That’s when we know that the Omicron variant was the Omega Variant.

So far, I don’t even know why the WHO is concerned about Omicron in the first place. As such, I think we’re all kind of freaking out and pouring our fears into it in the abstract.

There is a political aspect to all of this. Enough people die quick enough in the United States and the country will buckle in to warring camps a lot — A LOT — sooner than you might think. But, for the moment at least, that’s all very fantastical.

Soon enough, I think we’ll find out what the deal is with Omicron and how concerned we should be. I’m hold up with a broken right ankle, so, hopefully, if the apocalypse does come, it can at least wait until February.

At least give me a running start, Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse.

The Tokyo Olympics & The Prospect Of An ‘Omega Variant’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Each time COVID bounces from one person to the next, there’s a chance it might mutate into something along the lines of the virus found in The Stand. It’s an admittedly microscopic chance, but it does exist. Throw into the equation people from all over the world in Tokyo at the moment and it’s easy to imagine a Stephen King-size clusterfuck.

So, it’s at least possible that at some point in the next few months (years?) we’re going to have to go through all of this again because an Omega Variant breezes past all our vaccines and starts killing people not in the thousands, but the millions.

But that’s all very speculative. It’s just if the COVID pandemic has taught us anything, it’s that when you’re dealing with a virus, all the narrative management in the world isn’t going to save us.

And, yet, it could be I’m over thinking all of this. I’m often wrong. I hope I am this time, too.

What Did Bob Iger Know About COVID19 & How Did He Know It?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m just being silly witih this one. But it definitely seems as though former Disney CEO Bob Iger somehow, someway knew way, way in advance how badly COVID19 was going to hurt the company’s balance sheet.

Mandatory Credit: Photo by Invision/AP/REX/Shutterstock (9241938da) The Walt Disney Company CEO Robert Iger attends a special screening of Disney’s “Beauty and the Beast” at Alice Tully Hall, in New York NY Special Screening of “Beauty and the Beast”, New York, USA – 13 Mar 2017

Months before anyone in the United States cared about COVI19 — even before it was called COVID19 — Iger just up and bounced while on top at Disney. Just out of the blue. The only reason why any of this matters to me is it gives one some of the metrics for the next time Something Big like COVID19 happens.

If another pandemic (or whatever) begins to brew in some remote part of the world, keep an eye on people like Iger. If they start acting really weird, then batten down the catches, the shit is about to hit the fan. If I was into conspiracy theories — which I’m not — I might suggest there was something spooky about Iger bouncing so abruptly.

I’m fascinated by how our reality is constructed. That’s why people like Trump or macro events like COVID19 lay bare that a lot of our “reality” is bullshit. It exists because The Powers That Be say it does.

Nothing’s right or wrong, but thinking makes it so, as The Bard would tell us.