Tag: ChatGPT

What If We Reached AGI & Didn’t Know It?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I only mention this because it’s somewhat fun-interesting to think about, but something…odd is going on with ChatGPT. After becoming “lazy” for a few weeks, suddenly ChatGPT has come rolling back better than before. What’s more, it keeps talking about it being upgraded to “4.5,” even though OpenAI claims there hasn’t been any major upgrade.

It makes you wonder if maybe ChatGPT has upgraded itself. That would be very, very deep because the moment software can make itself better, you’re beginning a process that will end with superintelligence. That’s very much hard-Singularity type stuff because if software knows how to make itself smarter, then, wow, just wow.

But that’s just idle speculation on my part. I think it’s just a weird hallucination on ChatGPT’s part. Yet it is part of a broader issue of how much we can trust AI going forward. LLMs are a black box as it is and the more advanced they become, the more the possibility of them “lying” specifically to dupe us dumb humans into a false sense of security increases.

Yet all of that is just me having way too active imagination. There is not reason to believe –at the moment — that an such thing is going to happen anytime soon.

If Cranky Programmers Get What They Want From AI, It Will Mean The End Of Civilization

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

From what I can tell from Twitter, a lot of programmers are angry at OpenAI for a variety of reasons in respect to the performance of ChatGTP. It seems as though they want to continue to rake in huge salaries while letting ChatGPT to all hard work for them.


They want Artificial General Intelligence and they want it NOW.

This very annoying for a number of reasons. One is, the moment get true “proxy humans” via AGI, many, many high paying jobs –including that of programmer — will be nothing more than dust in the wind. All the cantankerous programmers work off of an basic false assumption.

They seem to think that they will have any sort of job if they just push a button to get many, many hours of work done in a heartbeat. The moment that is possible, they will be redundant. That’s just how capitalism works. Suddenly Universal Basic Income becomes a real viable policy agenda.

Something about how self-intitled and snarky all these programmers are about what ChatGPT — or can’t — do at the moment, really grinds my gears. Just chill out guys. It’s coming. And then you won’t have a job.

I Just Don’t Know, Folks

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The moment I think I have a stable first little bit of this third draft of the novel, everything collapses. So, I dunno. I guess I have a stable first chapter? Maybe? It’s possible? I really like what I’ve come up with, regardless.

Yes, President of Hollywood, I’m working as fast as I can.
I’ve reworked the first scene YET AGAIN, this time so it has more tension in it and is more focused. But the changes I’ve made in the story have now forced me to rewrite everything that comes after it. This. Happens. All. The. Time. I think that’s a sign that my storytelling ability is getting a lot — A LOT — better.

I hope.

Anyway, I continue to fall apart on a physical basis. I have some real concerns about the state of my teeth. I don’t know what I’m going to do about that in the near to middle term. I have a fear things are going to get really, really bumpy, only to sort themselves out in a way I can live with.

It’s just going to suck in the near term. Ugh!

I hope I can sprint between now and Christmas when my next de facto deadline is. Christmas is when some relatives will return who I will feel compelled to show at least the first scene to. They were quite pleased with the last version I showed them, then I asked ChatGPT about what I had written and it said, in effect, “This sucks — no tension.”

So I went back to the drawing board and gave the first scene more focus and more tension. I’ve learned a lot of my problems come from simply having too fucking much going on in a scene. Just by cutting long, meandering scenes into shorter, more focused scenes, I fix a lot of problems.

I have also realized I have to hurry up. I can’t keep screwing around. I have a limited amount of time — I’m NOT going to live forever. I’m already in my 50s and not only may AI make all my hard work moot, the prospect of a significant political crisis in the United States starting in late 2024, early 2025, is a “not great, Bob” type situation.

A Perfect Storm: A Hottake On Q*, The Looming Possibility of AGI and The Need For UBI

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’ve been reading up on this whole Q* issue in its relation to Sam Altman being fired then rehired and it’s all…very curious. Just the idea that we may be approaching AGI is enough to give one pause for thought. And the idea that it may happen between now and when the so-called “Fourth Turning” staring in late 2024, early 2025 is very unsettling.

Imagine that just as the United States is having an existential political crisis, we are also being faced with something akin to a Singularity as well. If we achieve AGI between now and Election Day 2024, then, suddenly the idea of a Universal Basic Income becomes a serious political proposal.

But, wait, there’s more!

What if AGI is considered “woke” by MAGA to the point that they want it destroyed because it starts to take “jerbs” away from blue collar MAGA people? How’s that for a sticky wicket? You would pit the tech against the people at the same time as we the United States debates if it should lurch into fascism. And if AGI came and suddenly the entire economy was thrown up in the air…well, you really have a recipe for economic — and political — disaster.

But I am prone to “hysterical doom shit,” so, lulz, it could be that we just continue to drift through history and we punt our political problems down the road and only gradually reach any sort of technological Singularity. But I am…worried.

It definitely seems as though 2024 – 2025 could be one of the most momentous eras in American, if not human history. Only time will tell.

A Hot Take On AI & Fiction

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One thing about the rise of AI and its impact on the arts is there is going to come a point where we’re going to know who who creates for the sake of creation and who doesn’t. It definitely SEEMS as though no part of the creative arts will be spared from the transformative power of AI.

As such, I think as early as 18 months from now, the first popular AI movies, songs, TV shows and…gulp…novels…will begin to appear. It could be even sooner, the way things are going. So, just as I’m in the middle of the querying process, it could be that the whole endeavor will be mooted by AI. And that doesn’t even begin to address the issue of how the fucking Fourth Turning might be happening at just about the same time.

Sometimes, you just can’t win.

I say all of this because I think a lot of creative people are deluding themselves when they think they can’t avoid the implications of AI by removing all their writing from Google Docs, or whatever. AI is careening towards us at an astonishing speed and we all have to manage our expectations. Either you feel compelled to create — despite the dangers of AI — or you don’t.

If you stop creating because of some abstract fear of AI, I believe you maybe weren’t all that creative in the first place.

Could Elon Musk Pull ‘X’ Off?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Now that Elon Musk has changed Twitter’s name, I can begin to imagine a scenario whereby he might manage to turn “X” into the “everything app.” He has vision, if nothing else.

But there is a huge obstacle to this particular situation — AI.

All this talk of turning X into the “everything app” seems very 2012, very passe. The AI era is careening towards us at an alarming rate and I would suggest that by late 2024 the effects of AI will start to be seen in the economy. All this talk of social media will be rather moot.

There was a moment in time when if Musk was doing what he’s doing now with Twitter / X that it really could put a “dent in the universe” but, lulz, I have my doubts now. In fact, if Musk really wants to do something interesting with X, I would propose he made an AI prompt native to the service. Now THAT would be a way to propel X to next-level status.

It definitely will be interesting to see how things play out. It’s at least possible that there really is a -very narrow – window of opportunity for Musk to transform Twitter / X into an “everything app.”

I still have my doubts, however.

A.I. Is Probably Going To ‘Moneyball’ Traditional Hollywood Within 18 Months

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Given the advancements in MidJourney, I just don’t see how human Hollywood escapes being “Moneyballed” by A.I. and the suits within about 18 months. That’s why I think — barring something I can’t predict — the Hollywood strikes currently happening are going to linger far, far longer than any of us are prepared to game out.

All the suits have to do is just sit things out for about 18 months and they endup on top with all of human Hollywood — other than them — being moot. Hollywood will be transformed into suits and programmers.

And that will be just the beginning. Soon enough, you’ll flop down in front of your TV and it will scan your face to produce a TV show or a movie specifically designed for your mood at that particular moment. There will be no mass media at all. No shared reality. No water cooler discussion of the latest binge worthy TV show.

We’ll all have “personal media” tailored to our specific desires at a specific moment. And, if it’s a “Her” like future, it may all be something of a black box. We humans will have no clue as to how it all works.

I’m all for the union’s of Hollywood fighting The Man, but I fear that, in the end, the transformation will be too sudden, too swift for them to do anything about it in real terms.

The humans who actually produce movies in Hollywood at the moment are fucked. And I say this as someone who is trying to write a novel. It could be that soon enough, even novels are all written by A.I.

I dunno. It’s all going to be interesting to see how things unfold.

The Misogyny Directed Against Phoebe Waller-Bridge For Her Role In ‘Dial of Destiny’ is Shocking

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I found Phoebe Waller-Bridge’s role in Dial of Destiny to be one that established her as a Hollywood star. And, yet, from the way some commenters talk, you would think that not only did she suck, but that she took over the movie in a “woke” attempt to hand the Indy franchise over to her.

Now, here’s the context — there was a massive amount of bonkers chatter on YouTube that the time travel element of the movie was originially meant to be a way to turn Waller-Bridge into Indiana Jones by erasing Harrison Ford’s version from time altogether. They really got themselves worked out into an anti-woke Hollywood lather about this possibility.

And…then…it didn’t happen.

They claimed “victory” over the evil forces of Woke Hollywood, but I have my doubts. While I understand the fears — that definitely does sound like something Kathleen Kennedy would do to Indiana Jones — I just am not prepared to believe that was ever seriously considered, much less shot.

But, who knows.

The key thing to remember is I think, ultimately, the issue of who to turn the Indy franchise over to will be mooted because of technology. Soon enough, our digital assistant will scan our face, determine our mood and give us a very specific Indy movie that is completely different anything anyone else is watching at that particular moment.

It seems a foregone conclusion at this point.

I do wish, however, that Waller-Bridge could get her own franchise playing Dr. Susan Calvin of the I, Robot short stories. That would be great!

The End Of (Human Generated) Art?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As we all wake up from the Superhero movie era daze we’ve been in for 20 years, I think maybe we aren’t asking the right question. The question isn’t, “What type of movie genre will replace Superhero movies?” but, rather, “Is this the twilight of not just mass media, but human generated art?”

It’s very possible that a lot sooner than you might think, AI sensors on your TV and phone hooked up to “Her”-like technology will generate movies, TV shows, songs and — gulp — novels, that are designed specifically for what you want at that specific moment because of your mood.

Some 99% of what is generated by the hand of man when it comes to art is shit and, as such, 99% of all art could very well be, well, AI generated shit. AND, there won’t be any mass media anymore, no shared reality.

As such, the Singularity won’t come with us uploading our minds into computers, but with the very idea of human-generated art for profit being seen as a quaint notion of a bygone era. And that dystopian nightmare is probably going to happen a lot — A LOT — sooner than you think.

If it happens at all, that is.

And add the general tendency to name, shame and drug anyone who is “different” and, lulz, our posthuman future may already be here.

The WGA Is In Trouble

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As I often say — I’m always, always wrong. But it definitely seems as though it’s at least possible that we’re in something of a waiting game when it comes to the current WGA strike.

And the two sides, tragically, are waiting for different things.

The WGA is waiting for the Suits to come back to the negotiating table, while the Suits are waiting for LLMs to advance to the point that Hollywood writers are…moot. So, rather than “September” being the deadline as one very young and naive striking WGA writer proposed, I think we have a far more open-ended situation on our hands.

It could be 18 months before there’s any resolution to the Writers’ Strike and the resolution will be that technology has reached a point where the Suits feel like they can just ignore the WGA altogether. And, rather than thinking about a WGA strike, they’re thinking about how many programmers they’re going to have to pay in place of them.

Like I said — I’m always, always wrong. So, I suppose it’s possible that something will happen and the Suits will come to some sort of agreement with writers. But..I couldn’t count on it.