Tag: Belarus

Belarus, Russia & The Law Of Unintended Consequences



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Any student of history will tell you that history is fickle. It does not move in a straight line. In fact, the relative peace the world has seen since the end of WW2 is something of an anomaly in the grand scheme of things. Time and again, the law of untended consequences has turned around and bitten people in the ass in some pretty astonishing ways.

So, here we are with Belarus and Russia.

There’s a reason why Putin has –as of yet — not swooped in and gobbled the country up. From his point of view, a political union is his best bet, if it ever came to that. His economy is, relative to countries like China and the United States extremely small. About the size of Portugal’s, I think.

And, yet, there are some pretty important reasons why Putin might say screw it and invade Belarus anyway. One is he probably doesn’t want a free country the size of Belarus on his border. Add to that the current protests there are something of a gimme and it would make a lot of sense for him to invade, or “be invited into” Belarus pretty soon — maybe even before the end of August.

But that would open up a huge can of worms. In the modern age, if he simply swooped into Belarus overnight, social media in the West would be awash with footage of it and that would likely cause a lot of neighboring countries in Europe to give any rebels that might exist the arms necessary to put up a pretty good fight, which would drain the already weak Russian economy.

If Russia’s economy began to falter because of Putin felt he had to throw more and more troops into Belarus to maintain control, then a whole series of unexpected and unintended things might cascade from it. From what I can tell, Putin is a pretty sly, pretty cautious guy, so for him to actually be aggressive enough invade Belarus, there would have to be some metrics that I don’t know about for him to risk it.

August isn’t over yet, so it could still happen. But I’d have to start hearing about major Russian “training exercises” on its border with Belarus before I would grow to concerned.

Russia’s Possible Coming Invasion of Belarus



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As I’ve said before, I’m no expert on any of this, but I can make some general, educated observations about what’s going on in Belarus.

For a number of years now, Putin has had his eyes on Belarus. The difference between Belarus and Ukraine is the former is significantly smaller and doesn’t really have the centuries-long animosity towards Russia that the latter has. So, it wouldn’t be existential for Putin to swoop in and gobble Belarus up.

The recent protests in Belarus give Putin exactly the cover he would need to invade the small country. He would say he was “invited in” because of the instability and, well, that would be that. He would never leave.

There might be significant opposition to such a land grab by the people of Belarus, but nothing a big as what Putin would face if he tried to do something similar with Ukraine.

Since it is August, the shittiest month of the year, it would make a lot of sense for Putin to swoop in and eat Belarus. And, really, the issue for me is there haven’t been any reports of any major troop movements by the Russian military (at least as far as I know.) Putin continues to move tanks around the area, but nothing — not even a “drill” — that might indicate any large-scale invasion of Belarus is afoot.

That could change very quickly, however if things continue to deteriorate in Belarus and it appear as if democratic forces might actually win.

So, it would seem we have something of a waiting game ahead of us. It continues to be curious that Putin hasn’t done anything major with Ukraine give the complete and total pass the Trump Administration would give him if he did so.

#Belarus, #Russia & The Legacy Of 1989



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Let me begin by saying I’m simply a casual observer of these things and no expert. Just have a reasonably educated opinion on the situation developing in Belarus.

On one hand, Belarus is a small country that should a tipping point come — like, say, a fixed election — would be a prime candidate for a successful revolution like what we saw all across Eastern Europe in 1989. In fact, Belarus is something of an anomaly in that it never even pretended to embrace liberal democracy after the fall of Communism there.

But there’s also a huge but you have to include whenever you discuss the fate of Belarus — but Putin’s Russia.

If events in Belarus grow too unstable, it is very reasonable to assume that Russia will strike rather quickly. They would say they were “invited in” then, well, never leave. Putin would do what he’s wanted to do for 25 years — annex Belarus outright.

Given that the United States is pretty much under Putin’s thumb in the guise of our traitor “president” Donald Trump, if ever Putin was going to absorb Belarus, now would be the time to do it. The United States won’t say a word.

There is a little bit of a risk, however, that if things grow too unstable in Belarus that the whole powder-keg in neighboring Ukraine might blow up in a way that Putin couldn’t control and he might grow way too tempted to sow the seeds of his own destruction by starting a general war in eastern Ukraine.

But that’s kind of stretching it at this point.

And maybe nothing will come of the protests in Minks. It’s going to be a long night, no matter what.

What Is Putin Thinking? #Ukraine #Belarus


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing about Putin’s Russia is in real terms, the election of Trump gives us a real sense of their power as opposed to what they would like us to think they can do. Electing Trump was the softest, cheapest form of geopolitical ratfucking possible. It was cheap and nearly value free.

Meanwhile, two major issues on Russia’s border remain unsolved, at least to date. While Russia would love to gobble up most of Ukraine and all of Belarus, as of right now, they’ve just been all talk outside of moving troops around now and then. But current reports of growing protests in Belarus just might be something Putin can use as a springboard to taking the country.

Belarus is small and poor and Russia could probably actually gobble up if the timing us right. Not that it wouldn’t be pretty bloody, but Russia could swoop in as “liberators” things get too bad in Belarus and then, well, never leave.

One sign, at least to me, that Putin is quite confident that Trump is going to successfully steal the election is there’s not been a major land grab of eastern Ukraine by the Russians. Putin feels confident that ultimately Trump will leave NATO in his second term and, as such, Russia will be in a much better position to eat as much of Ukraine as it likes.

Russia is a unique geopolitical player because geographically it’s huge and it has a shit ton of nuclear weapons, but on the ground, it’s economy is so small that Putin knows he would just be setting himself up for his own downfall if he simply attacked Ukraine in a general war. Hence, Putin simply lurks on the border and waits for just the right moment to strike.

As such, it’s far more possible Belarus might be gobble up sooner rather than later than Ukraine. If that should change, should Russia rather abruptly move on Ukraine late this year, then something pretty fucking dramatic would have had happened to Trump’s chances of stealing the election.

I don’t see that happening, however.