Tag: Autocrats Never Lose

The Big Punt


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’ve long talked about “A Big Ugly” happening if Trump mysteriously — especially now — “doesn’t lose.” Well, it’s at least possible that a unique set of political circumstances we’re just going to punt the consequences of the existential rot facing America down the road a few years.

Or maybe not.

I still can’t imagine Interior Minister Bill Barr just giving up and letting Trump actually lose. It makes no sense. But if somehow Barr DOESN’T pull something of his butt to keep Trump in power, then it’s very possible that for about 50% of the population the Biden Era will simply be a House Trump Interregnum. And either they try to violently end that interregnum, or they win in 2024 and force the hand of the OTHERSIDE and all my nightmare scenarios happen that way.

Or, put another way, seeing a MAGA rally face-to-face this weekend was a real wakeup call. MAGA isn’t going anywhere and their devotion to Trump is so absolute that it’s inevitable that they’re going to destroy the United States one way or another.

Hopefully I’m wrong. I often (obviously) am.

Bill Barr’s Coming(?) Coup


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The only reason why I’m beginning to wonder if Bill Barr is going to stage a coup or not is, well, politically the decision has been made — Trump lost. And, yet, it would also make a huge amount of sense for Barr to pull something out of his butt so The Dear Leader mysteriously gets a second term.

Though, one has to note that such a legal coup would not happen in a vacuum. A civil war or revolution would almost certainly erupt even if Barr managed to pull it off. Or, put another way, while on paper TrumpBarr has every reason to believe they could successfully pull off a coup by fucking around with the “legal” votes, there would be consequences.

But what, exactly, might Barr do?

I dunno. I don’t know enough about this particular subject to be able to tell you. Maybe sue the states so the vote isn’t certified, it goes to Congress, then SCOTUS and Trump “doesn’t lose?”

All I know is, Barr still has about a month to pull something out of his butt. Autocrats never lose. So, it makes sense that Barr is just plotting right now and will spring out of his hole at some point between now and when the votes are certified and the Electors vote.

TrumpBarr Coup Preflight & Triage


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As I have long predicted, TrumpBarr is staging a coup. Now what? Well, while absolutely no one listens to me, let’s see where things stand. We have to assume the moment TrumpBarr strikes, there will be significant violence on the part of Biden supporters. And that, in itself, will be enough for TrumpBarr to invoke the Insurrection Act.

That’s just a given.

Remember, it is going to be extremely easy for TrumpBarr to convince 50% of the population that Trump is the “legal” president after all the “legal” votes have been counted. In fact, I don’t even think MAGA-Qanon people will even care how brazen the lie is. They want the autocrat to stay in power and cry more, lib.

The invoking of the Insurrection Act is going to be a bodyblow, but not a knockout one. At least, not if we assume that’s happening no matter what. Unlike some of the nattering nabobs of negativism on Twitter, I am not completely oblivious to human nature and simply accept that there will be significant protests when TrumpBarr stages its coup. That’s just a given.

What TrumpBarr wants to do is sucker punch Biden supporters through it’s control of SCOTUS, the government and the military (via the Insurrection Act.) They want to, in essence, to do a political 9/11 on the First Republic from within. Since most people, now that the election has been called, assume Biden is going to be president, they are going to have the element of surprise.

But once the Insurrection Act is invoked, what do we do?

We’re going to have to start thinking existential. Once the Insurrection Act is used, we have to accept that the First Republic is dead. The best we can hope for is to renew the American Covenant by founding a Second Republic. This will be extremely painful for a number of reasons, but to think the First Republic exists once someone as deranged as Trump can use the military to knock heads is delusional.

We need to start thinking about First Principles and how we might fight back. Now, the following is abstract — at least to me. I’m not advocating any form of violence, but I am, in an abstract manner, noodling different ways we could counter-attack against MAGA-Qanon. I hate violence and I’m a man of peace. So when TrumpBarr’s sham People’s Court tries me for sedition, at least I will have made it clear I wasn’t actually advocating anything. (Not that it will matter by that point.)

The first thing we have to do is keep California in the Union. Another thing might be to figure out where the Second Republic’s provisional seat of power might be. New York City makes the most since, but on a strictly macro political level, you might want somewhere in California.

Also, I think we need to take a hard look at what is really going on with the United States. The key strength of the Blue States is they have a lot of population in a small geographical area. This is good because you don’t have as much area to defend. Yes, for the moment Blue States aren’t contiguous but that could potentially be fixed rather easily — I mean, if things really get bad, who’s going to stop a blitzkrieg through Idaho? I know there are plenty of survivalists there who have been waiting for this moment for 40 years, but, still, come on.

Additionally, we don’t know if the U.S. Military, in real terms, is going to continue as a institution. It’s possible, not probably, that much like the first Civil War, the U.S. Military will implode and there will be two different armies going at it.

One thing is important — if this dystopian hellscape scenario actually took place we would need leaders, an agenda and demands. Or, in short — vision. We would have to know what we were fighting for. In fact, I would say that’s the biggest weakness Biden forces have going into this clusterfuck.

MAGA-Qanon know what they’re fighting for — the glory of the Dear Leader. So, they think they can suckerpunch Biden forces and that will be that. And, tragically, they’re probably right.

But who knows. The South in 1861 had every reason to believe they could suckerpunch the North out of the war and we all know how that worked out. I guess what I’m saying is — don’t take anything for granted. The Bad Guys can actually win. But, just as equally, can the Good Guys. Good luck.

How Soon Is Now? Twitter Liberals Need To Get Woke to A Possible Brewing Coup


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Twitter liberals right now are completely fucking useless. They are so busy scoring points on Twitter and preening about their latest piece in The Atlantic that they are quaintly assuming the traditional rules of politics apply to the shitshow brewing right now.


Sadly, 50% of the population knows what is obvious: politics is dead in America right now. We’ve left the realm of politics and now we are dealing with realpolitik. Things like can we keep California in the Union, can Blue State governors call up militia legally are the things we have to worry about now. This sounds hysterical, I know. And I will be so grateful if I’m proven wrong. I have a novel to finish, afterall.

You now who Twitter liberals remind me of? Horace Greeley. He was the publisher of The New York Tribune and ran for president (then died) in 1872. He was famous for saying in 1861, “Wayward sisters, part in peace.” He was the OG Internet crank, too. He was a real pain in the but for Lincoln for a variety of reasons.

Anyway, just like Greeley, Twitter liberals are completely clueless about what’s going on and how to deal with it. There are no assurances the Good Guys will win. In fact, we may have a pretty dystopian future ahead of us for the next, well, long time. About 50% of the population is cool with autocracy and spare me your “oh, that would never happen.”

Or, put another way, it definitely seems as though 2020 is it — about 50 years of macro trends are reaching a tipping point, just as I have repeatedly written on this blog.

This could be it. This could be the end of the United States’ First Republic. I have no idea what is going to happen. There’s no obvious endgame. No fate but what we make, as they say at the end of Terminator 2.

It Can Happen Here — Pre-Coup Planning


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

In hindsight, it’s so obvious this was going to happen. I was thrown off by Trump not striking before the election was called by the media. I think that has more to do with how much in denial Trump has been more than anything else. But, now, he’s slowly bouncing back. He’s going to attack every weakness, every step, every norm, every law that stands between him and “not losing.”

He has SCOTUS and the entire Republican Party willing to facilitate that aim.

The old saying goes both love and war are easily started and difficult to end and that seems very applicable to our current situation. Going into this, Barr thinks he can sucker punch Biden forces so they’re so stunned that by the time they figure out what’s happening, Trump is being sworn in for a second term. His thinking is — it worked in 2000 and it worked with the Mueller Report, why won’t it work now?

I guess my only form of solace is if you looked at the state of play in 1861, 1914 or 1939 / 41, you might not have been very quick to assume the outcome that ultimately happened. So, yeah, it’s very possibly that TrumpBarr will succeed in their coup attempt and some sort of MAGA Reconstruction of Blue States will take place soon enough.

But great risk brings great opportunity. I’ve already made it clear that if the country implodes I’m heading to NYC. Though, only in the context of being one of thousands of other domestic political refugees. It’s not like I’m just going to go North alone. Things will have gotten pretty bad for me to simply head North and see what happens.

More likely, I’m going to just provide a warm body for any type of protests that might happen in DC.

I would note, however, that a lot of the strength of TrumpBarr right now is Biden people assuming the rules of politics still apply. The moment TrumpBarr make it clear that is not the case, then MAGA might find things are bit more nasty than they expected.

The key thing for me is unity. If we can get, say, California to stay and fight then we’re in a pretty good position to win any civil war / revolution that a coup might incite. I’ve written about all of this at great length on this site before.

Anyway. I’m often wrong. Hopefully this is just another instance of me being hysterical. We’ll see.

It Appears Possible Some Sort of Coup Is About To Occur


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

There are dark things afoot. And it’s still very possible that I’m completely misunderstanding the exact nature of some of the events of the last 24 hours. But there’s a non-zero chance that I have it just about right — some sort of coup is being plotted by Republicans.

My current theory is they’re going to attack certification of the votes. Through media narrative management, they want Republicans in crucial states to do a form of “jury nullification.” They just won’t certify the vote because fuck you, lib. The point of this would be to throw it to SCOTUS in some manner where they know they will win — Trump doesn’t lose.

Now, remember, while Republicans really don’t give a fuck what you think, this would not happen in a political vacuum. The moment they allowed the media to call the election, they made their job far more difficult — but not impossible. But the likelihood that the average person who doesn’t really think about politics might sit up and take notice of this coup is far more likely with the election called.

Or put another way, Barr thinks the difference between his victory with the Mueller Report and stealing the election is simply a matter of degree. That, at least, may be his thinking going into this. He has SCOTUS and he has the entire Republican Party. Having those two institutions going into a coup such as this puts him on safe enough ground that he will feel comfortable striking.

And, really, if there is any reaction to this coup, it’s the perfect excuse for Trump to invoke the Insurrection Act. That would give him the legal ability to give the military orders that might otherwise be illegal.

All of that is just one of a variety of different possible coup scenarios. We also have the possibility that if they fail at certification, they directly attack the Electors on a personal level.

I have said for some time now that every step they fail to successfully attack or corrupt will lead TrumpBarr to grow more radical. Remember, TrumpBarr has the total support of just under 50% of the population. The same logic that allowed them to rush the appointment of Amy Coney Barrett is the same logic that will cause them to stage such a coup (or something like it.)

All I know is things could get violent. Really violent. We could have dueling presidents with equal claim to the right to tell the military what to do. There may be a secession crisis. Blue States, out of desperation may call up their own militias for the specific purpose of defending themselves from the U.S. Military. Or, the U.S. Military itself could, in fact, implode so they won’t even be able to make a decision.

What’s more, the U.S. Military is the backbone of the post World War 2 liberal order. If it buckles, then you could see a number of regional wars grow hot in something that might be marketed as World War 3.

I’m often wrong. Like, all the time. But all of this is something to think about. There’s no obvious endgame. This wouldn’t be a video game. Real people with real lives would die. And you thought COVID19 was bad, just wait until there’s absolutely no food at the grocery store because you live in a Blue State (or Red State) and you’re being blockaded.

Again, I hope I’m wrong. Trump is really incompetent, but he definitely seems to be waking up from the shock of losing the election. And, as we know, autocrats never lose.

It’s Comical How Badly House Trump Screwed Up By Not Striking Before The Election Was Called


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Trumplandia, we have a problem. While we are now entering the most dangerous political crisis in American history since the fall of 1860, there is something of note we have to talk about: how badly House Trump screwed up by not striking before the election was called.

I have been ranting about how “autocrats never lose” and this is still the case. And it’s still the case that Trump is an autocrat and, by definition, will “not lose.”

And, yet, now that the election has been called there will be severe consequences for that “not losing.” Trump is going to try to use the bully pulpit of the presidency to do exactly what he could have done before the election was called — frame the post-election battle in a way that the average person won’t mind if he mysteriously “doesn’t lose” like all autocrats.

Now that the election has been called, the average person who doesn’t really pay that much attention to politics is going to be shocked when Trump stages a coup — whatever it may ultimately look like — to stay in power. It’s just not as easy for Maggie Haberman to explain Trump’s coup in hushed tones as a stroke of political genius after the election has been called.

But once the shock of political defeat wears off, Trump is probably going to come roaring back and attempt to use all his usual Stormy Daniels tricks to reframe the debate. Rudy will yell on CNN for an hour on a regular basis. The Right Wing bullshit echo chamber will attempt to bend the mainstream media to their will. You, know, the usual media narrative management that has been so successful for House Trump for five years.

And, yet, now that the political act of the election being called by the media has happened, if they try extra-political methods to stay in power — which they will — there’s going to be a civil war / revolution. But as can be seen in how Republicans handled the RBG SCOTUS opening — they really don’t give a fuck. They are so completely blinded by their MAGA ideology that they are oblivious to how they’re going to destroy the United States — or at least the First Republic — if they “catch the car” of keeping Trump in power.

The country is just too polarized right down the middle 50/50 for them to be able to pull it off now without a lot — A LOT — of people dying tragic, needless deaths. But, sadly, the more difficult it is for them to stage a coup, the more radical they will become. They’re going to grow so hysterical that that, in itself, may be what pushes us into a second civil war / second revolution.

MAGA is such a bunch of easily triggered snowflake crybabies that when the shoe is on the other foot, they’re going to what to blow shit up rather than face the cold, hard, fact that the dear leader is going to have to leave office. Given that Trump is probably going to grow more insane and hysterical himself as well, no good will come of any of this.

Our best case scenario right now is Trump attacks and corrupts every single step between now and January 20th and STILL can’t stay in office. Then he totally flips the fuck out and aggressively salts the earth on his way out, pardening dozens — if not hundreds — of his cronies. He fires everyone he hates — even if he can’t legally do so — and gets FBI director Rudy to frogwalk Biden in an attempt to protect his own sorry ass.

If all else fails, he pardons himself and flies AF1 to Pyongyang where he spends the rest of his life snorting coke off hookers’ assholes and telling Kim Jung Un all our secrets.

That’s our best case scenario.

Worse case scenario is Trump and MAGA single-handed force the issue and everyone has to take sides — even if they don’t want to. Then the United States’ First Republic collapses and we spend a few years killing each other.

There is no narrative. There is no value. We will imbue this particular avoidable tragedy with those elements after the fact in a desperate attempt to make ourselves feel better.

The Coming Elector Intimidation Crisis


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As I’ve said before, TrumpBarr blew it when they didn’t strike before the media called the election. That was a political act and, as such, they were dealt a significant blow.

So now we enter the a far more dangerous moment post – election when House Trump begins its extra-political attempts to stay in power. I keep saying that autocrats never lose and, well, this isn’t over yet. But the issue is — the only reason why Trump got himself into this situation is he’s so deranged and incompetent that he didn’t lay the groundwork to “not lose” in a far less conspicuous manner.

Two things stick out for me.

One is, this has the same dynamic as the Whitewater investigation that ultimately led to Bill Clinton being impeached. It’s building. It’s happening in the far right’s bullshit echochamber, but it’s building. And just like they say someone goes bankrupt “gradually then all at once,” so, too, is this crisis going to build and then pop out in a rather astonishing fashion.

The other is, what’s going on right now is exactly what happened in 2016, only this time there’s an actual chance this stress test on the Constitution might work, and, as such, cause significant political violence. Trump has said that he won’t leave power until he’s exhausted every possible option. What he means by that is, every step along the way to Biden becoming president, he’s going to attack and corrupt the process in a hysterical, vicious manner.

So, it seems pretty obvious that as I have long said, we’re going to have an Elector Crisis. As the shock wears off and MAGA begins to think about its options, Electors — the weakest link in the Constitution — will begin to grow in significance. They will whip themselves into a crazed frenzy at the idea that if they can just get enough faithless Electors they can win. Probably what will happen is some MAGA shithead is going to kill an Elector as a reminder to them what they should do. Then, to make matters worse, Trump will dox them all on Twitter and we’re going to have a massive, existential crisis as we all worry about what the Electoral College is going to do. To the point that all 300 million of us know the personalities of the Electors way, way, more well than we ever possible imagine.

But hopefully this will pass and we’ll go to whatever the next step in the process is and Trump will attack THAT. Then, probably, he probably is going to fucking lose his mind and salt the earth in a rather dramatic fashion. He may also pardon himself and flee the country.

In a sense, that’s a best case scenario.

The worse case scenario is there’s a civil war / revolution as Trump grows so radical that he simply seizes “total control’ and fuck you, lib. If that happens, I honestly don’t know what the endgame would be. Though I have said the dead hand of history would suggest Trump will win and we’re all fucked.

But I was wrong before — because Trump is too incompetent to be an effective autocrat — and so it’s possible we’re going to have a civil war / revolution and in the end, after a lot of needless, tragic deaths, things will go back to “normal” in some way. But the whole thing is going to suck so bad.

Just like with all such shitty historical situations, we will give it value and a narrative after the fact in an effort to make ourselves feel better for what we did to ourselves.

A Very American Coup at This Late Date?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Ok, we can all take a deep breath and relax for a moment. On a political level, we’re officially in a new era — the Biden Era. But it ain’t over yet. We have three months of not only Trump having zero accountability, but his continued craven desire to stay in office and an entire Republican Party willing to facilitate those desires.

We’ve officially gone past the point of no return — any extra-political attempt on the part of Trump to stay in power will be seen for what it is: a coup. Or, put another way, while Republicans have shown a willingness to destroy every aspect of our liberal democracy to stay in power if they start fucking with the election at this late date there will be severe, historical political consequences. Maybe even existential for the modern Republican Party.

There are plenty — plenty — absolute worst case scenarios one could imagine in the coming days. Everything from the Republicans figuring out a way to get SCOTUS to define “legal” votes so narrowly that Trump “wins” (doesn’t lose) to Trump doxing individual Electors on Twitter. The list goes on.

I think the thing we have to really appreciate is Trump is in shock right now. And once that shock wears off, he may freak the fuck out and go full autocrat on us in an effort to stay in power no matter what. I thought he might have the wherewithal to do that before the election was officially called, but I guess we were lucky. His incompetent delusional nature was simply stronger than his autocratic nature.

So, in a sense, relative to what a more competent autocrat would do — he blew it.

But once the shock wears off, it’s very possible Trump will go full autocrat with the full support of Interior Minister Barr. He really could dox individual Electors on Twitter in hopes of getting them to vote for him. That could really happen. Or he might offer to bribe them. I mean, the man has absolutely no accountability at this point, what we going to do? Impeach him? Use the 25 Amendment? All he — and the Republican Party — cares about is power.

Once he is sworn in again — no matter how he gets to do it — I doubt there would be enough votes to convict him in the Senate. Let that sink in for a moment.

Yet I, to date, have been proven very, very wrong. So wrong, in fact, that you probably should aggressively ignore anything I have to say about modern politics. I have, however, repeatedly said that all my pontificating is simply my very conspicuous way of making my abstract fears concrete and, as such, more manageable

It’s possible that Trump will fold and everything will work out. But I am concerned at the silence of the vast majority of the Republican Party. It’s as if they’re waiting to see what Trump does. If he goes the full autocrat route, they are going to fully support him and, as such a coup then civil war is almost certain to happen.

We’ve just gone too far. Any attempt to change the definition of “legal” votes by the Republicans at SCOTUS will probably be successful. But as they say, what happens when the dog catches the car? The same thing would happen to Republicans — they would get what they wanted, but they would get what they wanted. The cost of “catching the car” might on a immediate level make them happy, but almost immediately they would face a violent reaction.

I would go so far as to say the U.S. Military might weigh the politics of the situation and tell the Republicans to fuck off. But that’s really pushing it. I have no idea. If Republicans staged a coup in the courts (or the Electoral College) I honestly don’t know what the endgame would be.

A Second American Civil War May Be Inevitable


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Everything seems pretty calm right now, but for one thing — we don’t offically know who won. It’s possible that the moment we do know who won, two things will happen at the same instant — half the country will freak out with joy and half the country will freak out in rage.

Those two things happening at the same time do not make for a stable country.

And, what’s worse, it’s easy to imagine something pretty unexpected — a coordinated series of explosions across the country by far Right groups. I could even see the far Right’s first strike being a series of important assassinations of Democratic leaders. Anything they could do to push the particular situation out of the realm of politics and into simple violence.

If they did such a thing, it’s possible the next step would be two fold. One, a mob of angry New Yorkers might “take” Trump Tower (and Fox News.) Two, the political violence on the ground might grow so significant that we would see a consolidation of sides as there was a rush of domestic political refugees.

This doesn’t even begin to factor in the possibility of some sort of coup on the part of TrumpBarr. There are a wide range of options for TrumpBarr on that front. One of them being TrumpBarr uses any violence — even violence on the part of their supporters — to invoke the Insurrection Act to take “total control.” Trump is a moronic coward, but his supporters may decide to press the issue and he will see this as an opportunity.

I’m definitely not advocating any of this, but I don’t think we appricate the absolute devotion to The Dear Leader that MAGA-Qanon people have and the passions that the election has stirred up.

Maybe I’m wrong. I hope I’m wrong — I often am.

It’s just something to think about going forward.