Tag: Autocrats Never Lose

The Conditions Exist For Something Extraordinary To Happen In The United States Soon


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I find myself thinking about the French Revolution a lot these days. It seems as though while Neo-Confederate MAGA-Qanon cocksuckers are so busy thinking about masturbating to a Second American Civil War, they’re totally oblivious to the possibility of a Second American Revolution.

Or, to put it another way, Trump sliced the seal on Pandora’s Box and it seems as though the question is how bad things are going to get. Now, before I continue, the counter argument is that the Trump Era in itself was something of a Cold Civil War. And, while there’s no going back after that particular clusterfuck, in the end, a new equilibrium of sorts will be established and we’ll gradually drift into the New Normal of post-Trumpian politics.

But we WILL remain in the realm of politics.

In all honesty, that’s definitely what I want to have happen.

And, yet, it’s very easy to imagine a future historian describing the fall of the First American Republic, then revolution then civil war and then the founding of a Second Republic. This would not happen in a vacuum, of course. In all likelihood, there would be a World War 3 because of that particular chain of events.

But what, exactly, would happen and why? There are simply too many variables for me to begin to predict. And, yet, I could see Trump going transactional on Twitter which would incite the violence he needed to invoke the Insurrection Act and hunker down to stay in office the rest of his life. Then the military gets involved — maybe even implodes itself — and initially there’s Balkanization of the United States into different major polities (Texas, California, maybe Florida) and isolated incidents of Revolutionary governments being established in, say, places like New York City and the Deep South.

The whole post-World War 2 liberal order would be destroyed and something new created from the ashes. I mean, if big chunks of the globe are a post-apocalyptic hellscape because Sectreary of State Mike Pompeo thought he could “force” Jesus to return, then, well, things might be a bit different going forward.

As is usual with my worse case scenarios, it’s not like I can predict the future. And even if I did, it’s likely whatever happened would occur within a spectrum. The point is — either things snap back to a New Normal, or everything burns to the ground and it’s every man for himself.

The scary thing is, at this point, I honestly don’t know which one it’s going to be.

The End Of The Beginning Of The End Of The Trump Era


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m so happy it appears as though Trump may actually leave office. We still have a long, long, long, long ways to go. But at least this is the end of the beginning. Anyway, how is this possible, you ask. I thought autocrats “never lose.”

  1. He’s lazy and incompetent.
    There’s a reason why Trump is a “would be” autocrat — he really is just an empty suit. While Republicans have gotten pretty much everything they could possibly want with Trump because of their control of the Senate, to date, he hasn’t been able to take it to the next level. I overestimated his political ability and underestimated the power of American civil society.
  2. He didn’t strike before the election was called.
    If he was really the political genius that Maggie Haberman and — apparently me — think he is, he would have goaded Bill Barr into striking before the election was called. He probably could have “not lost” at SCOTUS had he done that. But, to date, Bill Barr has sat on his hands. It’s not over yet, of course.
  3. All his actions were tactical
    I really screwed this one up. Even Rudy’s usual disinformation tactics couldn’t overcome the dead hand of politics once the election was called. It’s surreal that they waited until AFTER the election was called to try to start ratfucking. There was no over all, grand strategy other than “just win.”
  4. It’s not over yet.
    I’m cautiously optimistic. But we’re one political bombing away from the country descending into civil war. But maybe, in the end, we’ll get through this. Trump could still do “something weird” (or destructive) on his way out the door.

‘I’d Like You To Do Us A Favor, Though:’ What If Trump Hosts The Electoral College At The White House?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’ve been so busy assuming the Far Right would dox electors, that it didn’t occur to me that Trump might out of the blue call them all to the White House for a little tet-a-tet. And there’s absolutely nothing we could do about it.

We haven’t even gotten past the Certification Crisis, either. So, it could end there. Trump could throw the election into Congress, then SCOTUS then win. But if we get past this Certification Crisis, then we might see the surreal imagine of all the Electors spending the weekend at the White House or Camp David for the specific purpose of Trump attempting to glandhand them into voting for him.

Hell, he might even try to bribe them.

“I’d like you to do us a favor, though….”

While it’s still very possible that out of the blue a Right Wing insane person might murder an Elector before any of this can happen, I guess what I’m trying to say is — Electors are the weakest link of the Constitution because they’re physical human beings.

Autocrats Never Lose: What If You Held A Second American Civil War & And Nobody Came?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

We have to be honest with ourselves, it’s possible that as we speak, Trump dangling sweet, sweet cash in front of Republican legislators from states like Michigan and Pennsylvania as a form of quid pro quo for them to throw the election to him by “nullifying” the certification of the vote.

In other words, damn the law, they just won’t do it because they don’t want to.

Now, as I understand it, the logic of these shenanigans is to throw the election to Congress where the, because the House and Senate are split, SCOTUS will get involved and, by definition, Trump will win. It would be nothing less than a political 9/11. We’re all just going to walk around in a daze for a few days that Trump managed to pull it off.

And, really, at that point the circle will be closed. We can impeach Trump (and Pence?) all we want to, but TrumpBarr will begin to consolodate power at an alarming rate and he’ll laugh off any impeachment trial in the Senate. I say this even if we manage to win to those two crucial Georgia Senate seats. Trump could murder someone in cold blood while having sex with Ivanka and eating a baby and Senate Republicans won’t blink an eye. As long as Trump doesn’t become a Muslim or raise taxes, he really is something akin to a God King.

It’s sad, but true.

I keep ranting about how all that would start a civil war, but would it really? There might be huge protests, but a civil war? Really? More likely with the upcoming purge of the media, we’ll just be in a Belarusian-like stalemate where there are lots of protests but nothing really happens. And any violence that does happen, TrumpBarr just use the Insurrection Act to squelch it.

Then Trump demands a Constitutional Convention to “pass a balanced budget amendment,” and before you know it, they’re passing a 1984 doublespeak “Second Bill of Rights.”

So, that’s it. That’s how America finally becomes a Russian-style autocracy. We have a political 9/11, nothing really happens and American democracy dies not with a bang but with a whimper.

Oh well. At least I have the novel. I’d prefer not to be pushed out of a window by ICE before I can finish it.

Pay Attention, People: Rudy Wants Republicans To Nullify The Election Of Joe Biden On An Institutional Level


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

We are so very fucked. I’m well aware that I overestimate RudyTrumpBar a lot, but Rudy is using on Republicans the same strategy he has used time and again on the American people over the last 4 years. Rudy doesn’t care about court, he cares about media narrative messaging for one specific group: the Republicans who have it within their power to certify the vote.

And that’s just one of several huge crises we have to suffer through. If the certification crisis doesn’t work, then we have the Elector Intemidation crisis to live through. THEN we have the Great Trump January Freak Out crisis to deal with.

Autocrats never lose.
Autocrats never lose.
Autocrats never fucking lose.

I’m wrong all the fucking time. But it definitely seems as this point either we stumble into an extreme version of the 2000 election or we have a fucking civil war / revolution. Like, one where real people with real lives — like you and fucking me — die for no Goddamn reason.

The “best” case scenario then is we just have lingering political violence after Trump uses the Insurrection Act to manage the country. Worst fucking case scenario is the country implodes and we have an actual, real life fucking civil war with armies and WMD used, the entire collapse of the global order and WW3.

I’m well aware that this sounds extremely hysterical, but Rudy has made it quite clear what his strategy is — he wants to “shame” Republicans into nullifying the election for our very lazy, very deranged autocrat Mad King.

This is our future. Or, at least, the future Rudy is actively attempting to create. What happens when this “political 9/11” happens is up to us.

The MAGA Dog That Hasn’t Bitten Anyone (Yet)


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Thankfully, no MAGA cocksucker has taken Trump up on his now near-constant effort to incite political violence. Not that it won’t happen, but it’s eerie that it hasn’t happened to date.

Anyway, all that has to happen is one (or a few) Oklahoma City-style bombings or a major assassination and that could be the cover Trump needs to take ‘total control.”

Or, put another way, we have a very, very, very long few weeks ahead of us. Remember, Rudy being in control of the Trump Campaign’s effort to steal the election has more to do messaging Republican state legislatures than anything else.

It’s easy to imagine a “political 9/11” situation where a number of Republican legislatures all decide at the same time to not certifiy the election. Then it all goes to Congress where the law on all of this is shit. Thus, it goes to SCOTUS and Trump will absolutely win, no matter what.

What’s more, even if we get passed the certification crisis, we still have the Elector intimidation crisis and the January Trump freakout crisis. Good luck.

Why Trump Will Dox Electors On Twitter


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m wrong all the time. But here’s something to think about.

  1. Trump is deranged.
    Trump is an autocrat — if a very bad one — and as it grows more obvious that he will be indicted by NYS after leaving office, he’s going to do anything necessary to “not lose.”
  2. It will be value free.
    By the time we get around to impeaching Trump for doing this, we’ll have moved on to the next thing. The intimidated Electors were “legal” votes and fuck you, lib.
  3. He’ll be president, fuck you lib.
    What are you going to do if Trump intimidates Electors to vote for him, impeach and convict him? This is never going to work, especially if Democrats can’t take the Senate. So, in that sense, at a minimum, Interior Minster Barr will believe Trump can get away with a coup. Trump will dox Electors on Twitter, the Proud Boys scare the hell out of them — they vote for Trump. The End. Coup successful. (Though, of course, this would likely cause a civil war / revolution, but #MoscowMitch doesn’t think in those terms. It’s all about power for power’s sake and owning the libs.)

MAGA Is Just Identity Politics For White People


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Let me be clear, that going to one small MAGA rally in DC does not an expert on the subject make. But it was my first MAGA rally and it made a big impression on me. Then I talked to a relative who is conservative-but-not-MAGA and something occurred to me.

One reason why it’s so fucking hard to deal with MAGA is at its core, it’s identity politics for white people, but you can’t bring that up because they get all defensive and think you’re calling them, personally, racist. What’s more, they don’t even believe in systemic racism — period — so you can’t even bring that up.

Throw in the two sides no longer having a shared reality and, well, you have the makings of a pretty unstable country. And I honestly don’t know how this particular situation fixes itself peacefully. We have about 20 years before the dead hand of demographics finally whittles away at the core of the Republican Party — old people.

What’s more, it’s possible that as brown people grow more “white,” that their natural Catholic conservatism will kick in and, well, we turn into an autocracy no matter what. That could just be our fate now — the United States, on a macro level, is going to become an honest-to-God autocracy in my lifetime.

I can’t predict the future. I have no idea what is going to happen.

The Longest Month


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

We have, as I understand it, about a month before two critical things happen — the state legislatures certify the vote and then, soon after, Electors vote. Now, on a strictly political level, Interior Minister Bill Barr really has his work cut out for him if he plans to make sure our tinpot tyrant “doesn’t lose.”

But, lulz, he doesn’t care. The same logic that allowed the Republicans to quickie-confirm Amy Coney Barrett to SCOTUS will allow Barr to take his chances on staging a coup (in some way) between now and about Dec 12th. I don’t know what he’s got up his sleeve, but I will be flabbergasted if Moscow Mitch doesn’t get on the Senate floor and tell us all that “legal” votes have been counted and Trump is going to get a second term.

Of course, this would mark not only the end of the First Republic, but likely the beginning of some sort of civil war / revolution — what I call The Big Ugly. One thing is clear, no matter what — it appears as though should Trump actually be physically removed from the White House (probably after pardoning himself) the Republican Party is going to be made up entirely of Trump deadenders. Either you believe that Trump is STILL president and have to be forcibly removed from your job, or you’re not a Republican.

But wait, there’s more — Trump also has a month to start a war in an effort to distract us all while he steal the election. It’s very easy to imagine the DPRK shooting off an ICBM or testing a H-bomb and Trump mysteriously changing his views on Little Rocket Man so there’s a war. By the time we figure out what happened, Trump is ensconced in the White House for another four years and fuck you, lib.

There are plenty of pretty dark scenarios. Somehow the vote isn’t certified, it gets through into Congress and then thrown to SCOTUS where Trump wins. Trump gets desperate and doxes all the Democratic Electors, telling the Proud Boys to remind them of “the power of the Second Amendment.” The moment it really, truly begins to sink in Trump that he isn’t going to be president anymore, there is absolutely nothing he might not attempt.

He could very well destroy the entire country for the sole purpose of not having his feelings hurt. Good luck, guys.

MAGA As ‘Mind Virus’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I have been exposed to the MAGA mind virus way too much the last few days. I fear I’m really beginning to understand how Nazism was able to consume Germany.

The first way it happens is when the center-Left and the center-Right can neither agree on facts nor agree on the interpretation of facts. This lets someone like Trump swoop in and seize control. Once you’re post-factual, then you really begin to work on the basis of faith, not facts.

Also, when you reach a point where all you do is think about The Dear Leader, you don’t have time to remember that, duh, someone like Biden — who is extremely middle of the road — isn’t REALLY a pawn of “AOC+3.”

Then, of course, there is just the issue of nullification, confirmation basis and denialism. You have an absolute abstract fear of being “canceled” simply for being conservative and so when you point out that there’s some serious racism, bigotry and misogyny going on, the person just waves it off and says they know what Trump “really” means.

But we have to never forget that MAGA is American Nazism. We can’t let our guard down. The moment we do, they will figure out away to make Trump’s nightmare dream a reality.