Besides “Mueller, She Wrote,” blocking me for my “doom shit,” another reason why I got beef with that popular Twitter liberal account is it seems so very clueless about any expectations that some “boom” is going to save us. Rather than expecting ANY accountability for Trump or the extended MAGA New Right, I would hunker down, start reading up on the rise of Hitler and the beginning of the First American Civil war and figure out what you’re willing to do for what you believe in. (In the real world!)
Barring something pretty dramatic I can’t factor in, the years 2024 – 2025 are going to be a historic clusterfuck of monumental scale. The entire post-WW2 liberal order could collapse once a civil war starts in the US. And, really, a civil war doesn’t even have to start. If we get a MAGA autocrat in 2025, then NATO is dead and everything is going to get scrambled and thrown in the air for a few years.
Remember, all of that would be happening right now but for Trump being a lazy moron who could not be a Great Man. The people who voted for Trump in 2016 voted for an autocrat. They thought they were getting an American Hitler. But, lulz, they just got a moron.
So, history is in something of a pause mode at the moment. It will get going again the moment the House flips and Trump (mabye) becomes Speaker. Trump becoming Speaker would be a huge shot across our bow, indicating how totally fucking bonkers the years not just 2024 – 2025 will be but as early as 2023, too.
But the point is — no one is going to save us. America is very unstable right now for a variety of reasons and either we become an autocracy or we have a civil war. Something’s gotta give.
Well, well, well, even “normal” people are beginning to wake up how my “hysterical doom shit” about the fate of American democracy maybe ain’t so “doom shit” after all.
SUCK IT, “MUELLER, SHE WROTE”.
So, while the fine people at the “Mueller, She Wrote” sleep comfortably at night with their full size Mueller pillow in hopes that the system will work and Trump will finally be held accountable — surprise! — everyone realizes we’re totally fucked and Mueller, She Wrote are a group of willful fools with their heads up their collective liberal asses.
To make a long story short, he pretty much says exactly what I’ve been ranting about for years now — America, despite the hopes of Mueller, She Wrote, is fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuckkkkkkkkkkked. The American Second Republic, founded by Lincoln, is on its last legs. Either we become an Right wing autocratic managed democracy, or we have a civil war that might, just MIGHT establish a Third Republic.
Here’s where Homer-Dixon and I disagree — I see 2024 – 2025 being a lot more bumpy than he does. I think we have three options ahead of us — autocracy, military junta or civil war.
Unless we really go A Handmaiden’s Tale route, I struggle to see the United States become a literal Right wing dictatorship by 2030. We’re far more likely to have a civil war were there are portions of the rubble ruled by a Right wing dictator or we have a post-Constitutional Convention America that politically is identical to modern Russia.
Anyway, the point is — get ready. Things are going to get bumpy for everyone not just in America, but in North America and beyond.
When it comes to the storytelling disaster that is “Don’t Look Up,” the movie because of its subject matter, is often seen almost exclusively through the lens of Blue and Red. So, you have Blues who defend it because they like the message and Reds who hate it because they feel attacked.
You have Blues who suggest if you don’t like the movie you’re stupid and Red who say if you like the movie you’re just another globalist cuck who wants to take away red meat and milk because of the Green New Deal is socialist.
Ugh.
I was the audience sweetspot for Don’t Look Up, and upon my first attempted viewing I fucking hated it. I love the movie’s politics, but from a storytelling point of view I found it to be a fucking disaster. It should have been Network, but instead it was Mars Attacks.
But I now that I have learned its ending, I definitely think I will grit my teeth try again. I think what I ran into is how messy whacked out the movie becomes at times, when in general, it’s probably a pretty good movie. Maybe I should do the same thing with Booksmart? Maybe I can get past the screeching over lesbian sex positions? I fucking hated that movie. And, again, I’m the (male) sweetspot for the movie!
Anyway, it is a testament to how fucking divided America is right now that everything, even a movie is both produced and viewed through the lens of Blue and Red. Racist fascism is extremely popular in the United States and as I keep saying — either we slip peacefully into autocracy or we have a civil war with no ready endgame.
America faces a very existential crisis — is the United States a “constitutional republic” or a democracy? Now, for those of you playing the home game, it’s quite clear what the answer is: it’s both.
And, yet, here were are.
The center-Right, afraid of scary brown people and liberated women, want to play our creaking Constitution like a xylophone so they can establish autocratic white Christian rule. Instead of doing the hard work of democracy — figuring out why their policies are so unpopular — they are tripling down on their existing hated policies and destroying our democracy while they’re at it.
And, as such, the United States finds itself in something of a pickle.
We’re careening towards a very dark situation in 2024 – 2025 where the issue of what America is will come to the forefront of all our minds with there is a very strong possibility that using the more obscure portions of the Constitution, Republicans will establish permanent white minority rule. And that will be that.
Or not.
There is a small chance of either a military junta being established or a full blown civil war between seceding Blue States and Red States who want to destroy Blue States once and for all. In that case, we would bomb ourselves into oblivion and be thrust into a very dark, uncertain future.
But the issue remains — Republicans are united in their desire to establish a fascist state in the United States, while too often the center-Left has its head so far up its ass that it’s too busy expecting some sort of “boom” to save us. Trump and the fascists are above the law and it’s comical that major Twitter liberal accounts like Mueller, She Wrote would STILL breathlessly report this or that “development” as if it means jackshit.
No one is going to save us. The system isn’t working. It will not work. We’re on our own. Gird your loins for a fucking political catastrophe of some sort between now January 2025.
If there is another civil war, it will happen because of a severe difference in opinion about what the United States is. The center Right thinks the United States is a Constitutional Republic and, as such, if they fuck with it enough and establish white minority rule, then fuck you. They throw around things like “mob rule” and “even de Tocqueville warned against democracy.”
Meanwhile, the center-Left believes that while the United States IS a Constitutional Republic, it is a de facto Western democracy and a wide ranging set of norms have developed over the years to facilitate a government “by the people, of the people and for the people.”
So, if there is a civil war — and it’s very possible there won’t be and we’ll just slip peacefully into autocracy — at its core it will be because of that difference of opinion. And that difference of opinion comes from white Christians freaking out about the browning and secularization of America. They see the Constitution not as a way to express the will of the people, but a firebreak against the loss of white power on a macro basis.
Now, the dumb thing of all of this is, obviously, that there are any number of scenarios whereby the center-Right gets everything it wants without resorting to violence. So, it would be a huge self-own on the part of the center-Right if they decided to force the issue and cause Blue States to leave the Union which, in turn, would start a civil war where the most powerful nation in the world bombs itself into the Stone Age.
I don’t think one can process at the moment how fucking insane a Second American Civil War would be. Everything would collapse, not just in the United States by the entire world. And there’s no assurance that it would ever be put back together.
Anyway, the point is — gird your loins. The next few years will grow more and more bumpy until they reach a potentially astonishing climax around January 2025.
America is at a crossroads. The chief issue of the day is how do you have a functioning republic when one of your two major political parties sees the “constitutional republic” not as a way to have a functioning Western democracy but as an excuse for minority rule?
The answer is, of course, you don’t.
Either you slide peacefully into autocracy, have a military junta or descend into civil war.
But the Second American Republic, the one Lincoln gave his life to found, is in its twilight years. No later than January 2025, it will come to an end one way or another. We will either simply shrug and become an autocracy or we will fucking bomb ourselves into fucking oblivion over cancel culture and CRT.
And, as I keep saying, I just don’t know which option we will chose, which door we will open. It really could go either way at this point. The Right has become so bloodthirsty and so in need of sucking its own cock that they could self-own and start a civil war that they don’t need to get what they want.
It’s all very stupid.
And, yet, that’s where we’re headed. The right feels as those the center-Left is “forcing” them to radicalize. Talk about blaming the victim! Anyway, as I keep saying, it’s over. Either we become an autocracy or we have a civil war and maybe, just maybe, found a Third Republic.
But one thing is for sure — Lincoln’s Second Republic is on its last legs.
My Traditionalists relatives love, love, love Florida’s govenor Ron DeSantis. “I wish I could vote for him three times,” is the exact quote. And, it could be worse. If fat fuck Mike Pompeo becomes our American autocrat in 2025, he’s really going to come down hard on freedom of speech right away, while DeSantis will at least wait a little bit.
Form follows function.
Anyway, there’s nothing stopping DeSantis at the moment. Except for Donald Trump.
Either Trump turns on DeSantis an neutralizes him — maybe by threatening to start a Patriot Party? — or DeSantis is about to shiv Trump politically and away we go.
It doesn’t matter though — we’re fucked. Any Republican president we have is going to be an autocrat. And that either prompts us to have a civil war or we slip peacefully into autocracy.
I’m growing tired of writing about this. But the United States is running on political fumes at the moment. At I think the thing that would spark a civil war in roughly the 2024 – 2025 timeframe will be how the center-Right hides behind the United States being a “constitutional republic” to avoid the tough task of adopting their policies to the realities of modern America.
They would rather use autocracy as a crutch than mellow out or try to figure out how to appeal to non-bonkers white people.
The reason why this is important is should Republicans steal the election but still technically stay within the Constitution, the center-Left will grow so enraged that the “Great Divorce” that MTG keeps babbling about will happen not when the GQP leave the Union, but when Blue states – probably starting with California, do.
Then everything — and I mean everything — will come crashing down. A civil war will start and that will prompt WW3. The “Great Reset” that insane, bonkers Right wing nutjobs believe will happen…will happen. But not because of any conspiracy, it will happen because white people are afraid, in the abstract, of being “canceled” simply for being conservative.
Or we simply have one last democratic death spasm and slip peacefully into autocracy. And if it happens, initially nothing will change but gradually, over time, we’re going to politically become identical to Russia.
Both of our potential options suck so fucking bad. We just won’t be able to muddle through like we have the last few decades. Something’s gotta give.
It is now embarrassing how many Twitter liberals think that this or that boom, or angry Twitter thread or even a timely, unexpected indictment is going to save us. We are totally, completely fucked, fucked, fucked. We are beyond the event horizon for Something Bad happening at some point between now and January 2025.
If you indict Trump, you either turn him into a martyr or you knock him out of the 2024 election…only to have a different would-be Republican autocrat take his place.
Remember, by definition, our next Republican president will be an autocrat. Our democratic goose will be cooked. As such, the only alternative is a civil war. It would be high risk, but high potential reward. Millions would die. World War 3 would happen at the same time. And there would be no assurance that of what the ultimate endgame would be.
The one thing that won’t happen is Biden (or any other Democrat) be allowed to win without serious conflict, up to and including a civil war. Half the electorate now believes that the only legitimate election is one in which their candidate wins.
How do you fix THAT problem?
I guess what I’m trying to say is — enjoy this twilight of democracy while you still can. We are so fucked in the near future. In fact, The Day After Tomorrow is just one huge tragedy.
I honestly don’t see how I don’t endup dead in a ditch eventually at the hands of an ICE agent if any Republican becomes POTUS. I say this because I simply refuse to shut up about what a fucking piece of shit President Pompeo or DeSantis is. Fucking cocksuckers either one of them.
I’m just the type of guy to get drunk in a bar in 2027 and start ranting about what a fat fuck President Pompeo is. Next thing I know, I’m being tortured to death by ICE. I really think that is a possibility.
THEN the the Traditionalists in my family my sit up and take notice about why I was right that they should have made temporary common cause with Liberals instead of MAGA.
I’m feeling a growing sense of urgency when it comes to reading up on the rise of Hitler and the Nazis in 1930s Germany. I’m reading a really great book on just that right now that is well written and extremely alarming. Some of what I’m reading about Hitler, the Nazis and the Weimar Republic in the early 1920s is nearly a 1 to 1 to what is going on in the United States right now.
It’s beginning to dawn on me that there is a real chance that MAGA will replace the Nazis as the Worst Ever Of Humanity from a macro historical perspective at some point in the near future. I say this because with either of the two most likely scenarios in 2024 – 2025, MAGA will be in a position to begin something equal to the Holocaust.
Here are some reasons why we won’t have a civil war:
It’s not in our nature to have a civil war. For all the hateful rhetoric on the part of the MAGA New Right, it’s possible that in the end, they manage to pull off a peaceful transition to autocracy. In fact, at first, at least, the chance from democracy to autocracy could be so subtle that only a few hysterical people like me even notice. For the average person, it will just be a replay of 2000, only worse: it will simply be accepted that the only way a Democrat can become POTUS is if that party also control Congress. People will say “the system worked” and move on.
Republicans have gamed the system. It could be that by 2024 – 2025 the actual administration of elections will be so corrupt that it will be a fact of life that people shrug and take for granted. It will be the first step towards Americans becoming Russians in that they will no longer feel as though the government expresses the will of the people. And that will be that.
Not Trump 2024 Another reason why we could slip peacefully into autocracy is it’s not Trump who is the Republican nominee, but someone other than Trump. If this is the case, when I honestly don’t see why we would have a civil war. Autocracy is so popular within the United States –and the opposition to it is so weak — that our transition to an actual autocracy will in the end be so easy to pull off that there will be no need to resort to violence. Blue States will get angry, but, lulz, they always get angry, right Mr. Eastman?
Autocracy is very popular in the United States A sizable portion of the United States’ electorate wants an autocracy. They want one so bad that they seem like a cult to people who aren’t all that thrilled at the prospect of one. So, it’s possible that they will wrap up the transition into autocracy without any violence at all. By the time people realize what they’ve lost, it will be way, way too late. The United States will be nothing more than a Russia clone with an identical political dynamic. There will be a MAGA-themed Constitutional Convention to “pass a balanced budget amendment” and we’ll still have President DeSantis (or whomever) 30 years from now.
Anti-MAGA forces are just too weak willed. Again, it could be that when push comes to shove, the whole thing will be over before it even starts. There will be a lot of angry tweets on Twitter, but in the end, because Twitter liberals aren’t willing to risk anything in the real world, we slip peacefully into autocracy and that, as they say, will be that.
If we become an autocracy, then gradually the worst of MAGA’s impulses will become law and POC and even Jews, will become the subject of persecution. And, don’t forget, people like me who just won’t shut up, too. It just seems to me that Americans don’t realize that once your political system goes septic like ours has, all bets are off as to how bad things might get. Once you have autocratic minority rule in a nation like the US and the there is absolutely no connection between the governed and the government, then there’s nothing to stop a President Pompeo or President DeSantis to fill ICE camps with POC, Jews and people like me.
That is, at least in my opinion, a real possiblity.
Meanwhile, if we go the other route, civil war, then significantly more people will die. In fact, a back of the envelope estimate on a Second American Civil War gives us 10 – 30 million dead from seized WMD being used. Add to that the potential for a race war in the south and general skullfucking by MAGA fascists against people they hate and, well, shit is going to get real.
Here are some reasons why we will have a civil war.
Republicans have come to glorify political violence Something you see a lot these days within the bullshit echo chamber of the MAGA New Right is the belief that because “liberals won’t leave us alone” that they are being “driven” to extremism. There’s a lot of leading not-so-vague talk as to what all this would ultimately mean. But it’s clear that for a number of “thought leaders” within the MAGA New Right that they have accepted that at some point in the future, they’re going to have to resort to violence to get what they want.
Republicans no longer believe in democracy It is now clear that like any good fascists, Republicans no longer believe in democracy unless it’s for the specific purpose of gaining and keeping power. This view of the system they’re supposed to a part of leads them do extremely destabilizing things that help push the country to the brink.
Trump 2024 Just Trump being the 2024 nominee would, in itself, be enough to cause a civil war at some point in late 2024 – early 2025. He just has a special knack for “owning the libs” in such a way that if he stole in 2024 election and said the “quiet part outloud” that Blue States would grow so enraged that it would be they, not Red States, that left the Union and caused a Second Civil War. But Ron DeSantis is polling exceptionally well at the moment, so either Trump politically shivs him at some point, or he co-ops him, making him his VP, opening the door to DeSantis becoming America’s Putin at some point down the road a little bit.
Steve K Bannon. Bannon and his toadies are actively working to destroy the framework that weuse to administer free and fair elections. So, it’s very easy to imagine a situation where this gambit works in ways that Trump himself is too idiotic to pull off personally and it will be so egregious that, again, Blue States leave the Union and we have a Second American Civil War.
Extreme negative polarization We’re in for a bump four or so years, no matter what, because negative polarization, on a systemic level, has reached a critical mass. When one of your political parties is fascist and would rather crash the global economy instead of even appear to work for the good of the nation — you got a problem.
A lack of shared values As the big blow up on Twitter in the last 24 hours about a Stephen Colbert song and dance gag about getting vaccinated proves — we can’t even agree on what’s funny. A combination of this and negative polarization is leading to the United States being two nations, one Red, one Blue and when we get around to attempting to elect the next president, the system simply won’t be prepared for the passions it will stir up.
A potentially historic miscalculation on the part of Republicans It’s possible that, much like European powers in the lead up to WW1, when the time comes and Republicans have a choice between peacefully transitioning us into autocracy or fucking with us all so we want to take up arms, they will choose the latter not because they have to, but because they want to. It’s possible that by the 2024 — 2025 period, Republicans will see a civil war as their only choice to consolidate power, even if it’s clear that they could get everything they ever wanted within the system they so obviously loath.
And when it happens, there will be no narrative an no value. We will give such events both a narrative and value after the fact and what those two are will be determined by who wins the civil war in the first place. And it’s possible no one will win such a civil war — the United States will simply balkanize into warring states and there won’t be any tidy endgame like there was with the first civil war.
That really is the nightmare scenario.
Anyway, like I said, start reading about the rise of the Nazis. Figure out what you believe in and what you’re willing to stuffer for in the real world. And also think about what you might be able to provide to the cause should things grow existntial.
Good luck.
Macro trends are not on America’s side. As I keep saying, 2024 is going to be it. It’s the year when either the United States turns into a Russian-style “managed democracy” or there’s a civil war. Now, this isn’t going to be a complete list of the 50 states, but I am going to highlight some of the states that may be more problematic should a Second American Civil War erupt.
Oregon The state is really two states and, as such, is probably going to be a major flashpoint in any Second Civil War. What’s likely to happen is Portland will buck any attempt at a putsch on the part of bonkers Right wing nutjobs in the rest of the state and, as such, either there’s a really blood struggle in the state or there are a massive amount of political refugees from the Portland area as the rest of the state sides with MAGA.
Virginia Again, this is really two states. There’s the NOVA-Richmond-Hampton Roads urban corridor and everything else. It’s very easy to imagine a situation — especially with Virginia’s historic ties to the first Civil War — where the state implodes as we grow closer and closer to a Second Civil War. Too many good old boys in the rural areas of Virginia might get wrapped up in the “Lost Cause” mythos and decide to seize places like Danville (the last capitol of the Confederacy) or Richmond (another Confederate capitol.) If nothing else, simply because of the larger population of the “Blue” parts of the state, there will be significant violence and political refugees as the Blues consolidate power.
Michigan I don’t know as much about this state, but it definitely seems as though once the pre-war process of coups and political consolation begins that there will be at least a coup attempt on the part of the Far Right. Again, don’t underestimate how once you actually start murdering people that the dynamics of things change significantly. It’s very possible that there would be a coup in the state, it would fail, and there would be significant political violence as the state’s Blue population fought back and put the state firmly on the Blue side.
New York Yet again, we have a situation where once politics fails us that the otherwise banal regional differences in a state tears it apart. New York City is far more progressive than the rest of New York State and, depending on how things work out, it’s possible that New York City could become a revolutionary hotbed to the point that is tears itself away from the rest of the state and proclaims itself a Free City. This almost happen during the first Civil War. If nothing else, there will be a serious jiggling of the relationship between NYC and the rest of the state to the point where it aligns itself in any Second Civil War with New Jersey and Connecticut in a way that update New York does not. Or, again, there could be significant political consolidation as Blues from all over the northeast flee to New York and the MAGA-friendly natives of the state flee elsewhere.
Maine I really don’t know that much about this state other than a vague belief that the northern part of the state is far different than the southern part. It’s very easy to imagine significant consolation in the state one way or another as people flee to it as the rest of the country buckles. The state is big — if sparsely populated — and it’s strategic location near the Canadian border might be enough for it to be the home to large refugee camps.
Texas Texas would be in an odd situation as the country fell into civil war because its long-term political trend is shifting Blue, but it’s part of the South and a lot of people consider themselves Southern and MAGA. So either it simply buckles into its own intra-civil war or the MAGA cocksucker fucktards push out all the Blues who flee to Blue States nearby. The end result would be a lot of pissed off former Texans who would be of great benefit to the Blue cause.
California In a sense, the whole fate of the United States rests on what California does. If it simply bolts from the Union, then that significantly hobbles the Blue cause on the ground. California sitting on its hands and become its own nation in the event of a Second Civil War makes it far more likely that either Red states win or there is some sort of half-ass balkanization of the United States. But if California stays and fights, then they could provide not only the necessary economy and population for a Blue state victory — after many, many dead — but also something of a vision for what America would look like after we’re finished bombing ourselves into oblivion.
The Deep South It’s very easy to imagine at the onset of a Second American Civil War most of the old Confederacy on a political level getting extremely excited and having a massive amount of momentum to either leave the Union outright or support the Republican controlled Congress’ attempt to brazenly steal the election. Then reality would sink in — all of the Southern states have significant African American populations and once politics is no longer a viable method of solving problems then the far more brutal dynamics of realpolitik would kick in. I just can’t imagine millions of African Americans lulzing a return to the Confederacy, no matter how badly the white political establishment of those states may want it. So, even though the South has a lot of people and a big economy, it would be, on a regional basis, too busy fighting a race war to really help the Red cause all that much. If things really grew as radical as I fear they will — probably because WMD are stolen and cities start to get vaporized — it’s the Deep South where you’re most likely to see some WW2 level atrocities as radicalized whites begin to murder blacks en mass.
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