Tag: American Carnage

How A Second American Civil War Might Happen

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

First, let me be very clear — I just don’t see the United States having a Second Civil War. All the talk about one says more about how on edge the nation is as we transition into an autocracy. Talk of civil war is part of the transition into an autocracy. It happened with Germany when the Nazis took over and it’s happening today as the fascist MAGA are ascendant.

Here are some reasons why we will have a civil war.

  1. Republicans have come to glorify political violence
    Something you see a lot these days within the bullshit echo chamber of the MAGA New Right is the belief that because “liberals won’t leave us alone” that they are being “driven” to extremism. There’s a lot of leading not-so-vague talk as to what all this would ultimately mean. But it’s clear that for a number of “thought leaders” within the MAGA New Right that they have accepted that at some point in the future, they’re going to have to resort to violence to get what they want.
  2. Republicans no longer believe in democracy
    It is now clear that like any good fascists, Republicans no longer believe in democracy unless it’s for the specific purpose of gaining and keeping power. This view of the system they’re supposed to a part of leads them do extremely destabilizing things that help push the country to the brink.
  3. Trump 2024
    Just Trump being the 2024 nominee would, in itself, be enough to cause a civil war at some point in late 2024 – early 2025. He just has a special knack for “owning the libs” in such a way that if he stole in 2024 election and said the “quiet part outloud” that Blue States would grow so enraged that it would be they, not Red States, that left the Union and caused a Second Civil War. But Ron DeSantis is polling exceptionally well at the moment, so either Trump politically shivs him at some point, or he co-ops him, making him his VP, opening the door to DeSantis becoming America’s Putin at some point down the road a little bit.
  4. Steve K Bannon.
    Bannon and his toadies are actively working to destroy the framework that we use to administer free and fair elections. So, it’s very easy to imagine a situation where this gambit works in ways that Trump himself is too idiotic to pull off personally and it will be so egregious that, again, Blue States leave the Union and we have a Second American Civil War.
  5. Extreme negative polarization
    We’re in for a bump four or so years, no matter what, because negative polarization, on a systemic level, has reached a critical mass. When one of your political parties is fascist and would rather crash the global economy instead of even appear to work for the good of the nation — you got a problem.
  6. A lack of shared values
    As the big blow up on Twitter in the last 24 hours about a Stephen Colbert song and dance gag about getting vaccinated proves — we can’t even agree on what’s funny. A combination of this and negative polarization is leading to the United States being two nations, one Red, one Blue and when we get around to attempting to elect the next president, the system simply won’t be prepared for the passions it will stir up.
  7. A potentially historic miscalculation on the part of Republicans
    It’s possible that, much like European powers in the lead up to WW1, when the time comes and Republicans have a choice between peacefully transitioning us into autocracy or fucking with us all so we want to take up arms, they will choose the latter not because they have to, but because they want to. It’s possible that by the 2024 — 2025 period, Republicans will see a civil war as their only choice to consolidate power, even if it’s clear that they could get everything they ever wanted within the system they so obviously loath.

And, yet, since there is a greater-than-zero chance that there might be a Second American Civil War, let me give you my reasoning why it will be Blues, not Reds who start it should it happen.

First and foremost, MAGA is politically ascendant. As part of that, they are doing everything in their power to sabotage American democracy in sort of a slow moving coup that, if successful, would cause the United States to turn into an autocracy through the corruption of the administration of elections. And, what’s more, if SCOTUS approves the dubious legal concept of “independent legislatures” the coup will be complete. MAGA state legislatures will be given free reign to completely ignore the will of the people if necessary to make sure a MAGA presidential candidate wins.

So, the theory of the case by civil war expert Barbara F. Walter is this: MAGA no longer believes in American democracy and they see themselves as “real” America to the point that they will become something like Colombia’s FARC and start to blow shit up around the country on a regular basis because they hold Blues in such distain.

Now, there is some merit to this idea — she is the expert, after all. But it also misses the point. Political tradition in the United States would suggest that if we’re going to do something as dramatic as a “National Divorce” it will be at the state level and it will have a thin veneer of legalism to it. While, yes, it’s very possible that between now and January 2025 there will be a significant increase in political violence across the country. That’s a real possibility and I can see how that might be marketed as a “civil war.”

And, yet.

It seems me that no matter which side demands a “National Divorce,” Blue or Red, it will be initiated at the state level. Doing so would give any effort to have a National Divorce the basic building blocks of a nation. Government. Military. Leadership. Taxation. It just doesn’t make any sense to me that we would collapse into anarchy — even though it definitely feels as though we’re doing just that at times.

There is a real possibility that if Trump feels he is going to get indicted and potentially go to prison, that he will demand Red states leave the Union to put pressure on the Federal government to lay off. He’s so bonkers at this point that anything is possible. But as I keep saying, from what I’m reading of Hitler and his ascent there’s a huge different between he and Trump — Hitler was willing to use violence, to go transactional to get his aims.

Trump, meanwhile, is so lazy and such a wussy that he’s only gone transactional once and that was January 6th. Otherwise, Trump has been all talk and violent dog whistles. This comes from how Trump is not a historical “Great Man” but rather just an avatar, a vessel for white Christian autocratic rage. And, in a strange way, this part of Trump’s personality has given us a little bit a breathing room that we would not have otherwise if Trump was more like Hitler.

So, barring Trump going transactional and demanding Red states leave the Union to save his own ass, I think if we have a civil war it’s going to happen in late 2024, early 2025.

If what happened in 2020 is any indication, the first sign that we would have that something was amiss would be on the local level. Instead of people who simply do their job as Americans and do the rather perfunctory duty of certifying the win of A Democrat, this doesn’t happen. In crucial voting districts all across swing states, Bannon’s “spiritual shock troops” either refuse to certify the win of A Democrat, or they go so far as to YOLO things and switch the win to Trump.

As this happens, the tension in United States escalates day by day. The very rallying cry of MAGA in 2020 — “Stop The Steal” will be adopted by the center-Left when it becomes clear that the MAGA New Right is hell bent on brazenly stealing the 2024 election in broad daylight.

But remember, the center-Left has a very different personality than the MAGA New Right. The center-Left, for all it’s problems with “cancel culture” and being “woke” is still actually connected to reality. So, there would be a struggle between the natural inclination of centrist Liberals to let the “process work” and Leftists who would want to burn everything to the ground given how corrupted everything had become.

All of this turmoil on the local level would find elections in crucial states thrown into the political realm where MAGA state legislatures and Secretary’s of State would begin to actively ensure that A Democrat is prevented from winning. Every day between Election Day 2024 and Certification Day 2025 things would grow more and more unstable in the United States as it became clear that Bannon’s long-planned “administrative coup” was actually going to work.

There would be mass confusion. Lots of lawsuits

And, remember, if Trump is involved, as all of this is going on, he would do everything in his personal power to rile up both sides. If his ongoing, progressive cognitive decline has gotten bad enough, he might even go transactional.

It would be around this point that I could see Blue governors begin to make serious plans to leave the Union. A lot would depend on what California was willing to do. But it would definitely make sense that California would be the first state to call a Secessionist Convention in preparation of leaving the Union if the 2024 election is, in fact, stolen.

But by some point between Thanksgiving and Christmas, you could see some sort of summit of Blue Governors where they debate their plans to leave the Union if the very thing that the MAGA New Right wants — to turn the United States into an autocracy — actually happens.

And as we approached Certification Day in January 2025, the last step in the crisis would happen. If you thought Certification Day 2021 was bad, just wait until Republicans are actively going over and above what they did then when it rolls around in 2025. So, the system will have been corrupted at both the local and state level. And then if that doesn’t work, Republicans will again try to throw the election into the House and Senate to buy time, if nothing else.

So, let me be clear — anyone who thinks we’re going to have some sort of MAGA New Right revolution a la The Turner Diaries — is a fool. Any Second American Civil War we have is probably going to be started by Blue States leaving the Union out of disgust that the fix is in.

Therefore, by the time Certification Day 2025 rolls around, it could very well be a foregone conclusion that we’re going to have a pretty organized civil war. Republicans have no shame and don’t apparently care about the consequences of their actions, so, lulz, we could find ourselves in the absolute worst of worlds because not only are states actively thinking about leaving the Union around this time, but the whole process of figuring out who is POTUS will be languishing in Congress. Republicans, because they are politically blood thirsty and will cheat, will win the power struggle, but there’s a chance states will begin leaving the Union.

It won’t be deranged, individual MAGA New Right blowing stuff up in some sort of rearguard action. It’s going to be a Blue Nation verses a Red Nation. A lot of the same things that happened in the First American Civil War will happen in the second. The U.S. Military will implode as people from Blue States leave it to establish a new Blue State military.

But one thing we have to expect in late 2024 to early 2025 is a mass migration of people across the country as people no longer feel safe living in an area of the country that doesn’t fit their politics. It could be rather frightening.

If it were, God forbid, to happen, I would guess that a Second American Civil War will begin between Certification Day 2025 and Inauguration Day 2025. In other words, as Trump is being sworn in, mass chaos will have erupted across the United States.

Once the hollowed out American military turns it attention to the Blue rebellion at the behest of Trump, it won’t be too long before WMD are sized and used by both sides. Not only would America bomb itself into oblivion with its eyes wide open, but it will be done in the context of WW3 definitely breaking out across the globe because the US will be too busy imploding to ensure the continuation of the post WW2 global order.

How’s that for a New World Order.

Macro trends are not on America’s side. As I keep saying, 2024 is going to be it. It’s the year when either the United States turns into a Russian-style “managed democracy” or there’s a civil war. Now, this isn’t going to be a complete list of the 50 states, but I am going to highlight some of the states that may be more problematic should a Second American Civil War erupt.

Oregon
The state is really two states and, as such, is probably going to be a major flashpoint in any Second Civil War. What’s likely to happen is Portland will buck any attempt at a putsch on the part of bonkers Right wing nutjobs in the rest of the state and, as such, either there’s a really blood struggle in the state or there are a massive amount of political refugees from the Portland area as the rest of the state sides with MAGA.

Virginia
Again, this is really two states. There’s the NOVA-Richmond-Hampton Roads urban corridor and everything else. It’s very easy to imagine a situation — especially with Virginia’s historic ties to the first Civil War — where the state implodes as we grow closer and closer to a Second Civil War. Too many good old boys in the rural areas of Virginia might get wrapped up in the “Lost Cause” mythos and decide to seize places like Danville (the last capitol of the Confederacy) or Richmond (another Confederate capitol.) If nothing else, simply because of the larger population of the “Blue” parts of the state, there will be significant violence and political refugees as the Blues consolidate power.

Michigan
I don’t know as much about this state, but it definitely seems as though once the pre-war process of coups and political consolation begins that there will be at least a coup attempt on the part of the Far Right. Again, don’t underestimate how once you actually start murdering people that the dynamics of things change significantly. It’s very possible that there would be a coup in the state, it would fail, and there would be significant political violence as the state’s Blue population fought back and put the state firmly on the Blue side.

New York
Yet again, we have a situation where once politics fails us that the otherwise banal regional differences in a state tears it apart. New York City is far more progressive than the rest of New York State and, depending on how things work out, it’s possible that New York City could become a revolutionary hotbed to the point that is tears itself away from the rest of the state and proclaims itself a Free City. This almost happen during the first Civil War. If nothing else, there will be a serious jiggling of the relationship between NYC and the rest of the state to the point where it aligns itself in any Second Civil War with New Jersey and Connecticut in a way that update New York does not. Or, again, there could be significant political consolidation as Blues from all over the northeast flee to New York and the MAGA-friendly natives of the state flee elsewhere.

Maine
I really don’t know that much about this state other than a vague belief that the northern part of the state is far different than the southern part. It’s very easy to imagine significant consolation in the state one way or another as people flee to it as the rest of the country buckles. The state is big — if sparsely populated — and it’s strategic location near the Canadian border might be enough for it to be the home to large refugee camps.

Texas
Texas would be in an odd situation as the country fell into civil war because its long-term political trend is shifting Blue, but it’s part of the South and a lot of people consider themselves Southern and MAGA. So either it simply buckles into its own intra-civil war or the MAGA cocksucker fucktards push out all the Blues who flee to Blue States nearby. The end result would be a lot of pissed off former Texans who would be of great benefit to the Blue cause.

California
In a sense, the whole fate of the United States rests on what California does. If it simply bolts from the Union, then that significantly hobbles the Blue cause on the ground. California sitting on its hands and become its own nation in the event of a Second Civil War makes it far more likely that either Red states win or there is some sort of half-ass balkanization of the United States. But if California stays and fights, then they could provide not only the necessary economy and population for a Blue state victory — after many, many dead — but also something of a vision for what America would look like after we’re finished bombing ourselves into oblivion.

The Deep South
It’s very easy to imagine at the onset of a Second American Civil War most of the old Confederacy on a political level getting extremely excited and having a massive amount of momentum to either leave the Union outright or support the Republican controlled Congress’ attempt to brazenly steal the election. Then reality would sink in — all of the Southern states have significant African American populations and once politics is no longer a viable method of solving problems then the far more brutal dynamics of realpolitik would kick in. I just can’t imagine millions of African Americans lulzing a return to the Confederacy, no matter how badly the white political establishment of those states may want it. So, even though the South has a lot of people and a big economy, it would be, on a regional basis, too busy fighting a race war to really help the Red cause all that much. If things really grew as radical as I fear they will — probably because WMD are stolen and cities start to get vaporized — it’s the Deep South where you’re most likely to see some WW2 level atrocities as radicalized whites begin to murder blacks en mass.

As for the rest of the states, their ability to pick one side or the other is probably far easier and their biggest problem would be dealing with political refugees.

Or, put another way, we’re fucked. We’re totally, completely fucked one way or another. Either we turn into an autocracy or Red and Blue begin to murder each other in cold political blood. The usual outcome of all this bullshit that we have come to expect — simply muddling along until we come to some solution one way or another — is not longer a valid option.

Trump’s Big Boy Crime Of Espionage Meets The ‘Stormy Daniels Playbook’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

For a number of years, since 2015, we’ve been trying to “get” Trump for any number of alarming things. And, every time, to date, he’s managed to escape because of what I call the “Stormy Daniels Playbook.” This Trump “floods the zone” with bullshit long enough for Republican leaders to touch base with MAGA voters and realize that they do, in fact, still support Trump. As such, to date, at least, Trump has known that trying to hold him accountable is much like trying to get any sort of sensible gun control passed after 20 little kids are murdered.

Trump just wants us to get past the shock of whatever the bad thing he did. Once we are able to get past the cognitive dissidence of him paying off a porn star right before an election, or making a “perfect call” to get dirt on Joe Biden, or separating families at the border…he wins. The MAGA base has such absolute fidelity to Trump on a political basis that there is never a point where the people in Republican leadership demand Trump leave the public sphere.

Here are some reasons why we may have a civil war over and above the FBI raid of Mar-a-Lago.

  1. Republicans have come to glorify political violence
    Something you see a lot these days within the bullshit echo chamber of the MAGA New Right is the belief that because “liberals won’t leave us alone” that they are being “driven” to extremism. There’s a lot of leading not-so-vague talk as to what all this would ultimately mean. But it’s clear that for a number of “thought leaders” within the MAGA New Right that they have accepted that at some point in the future, they’re going to have to resort to violence to get what they want.
  2. Republicans no longer believe in democracy
    It is now clear that like any good fascists, Republicans no longer believe in democracy unless it’s for the specific purpose of gaining and keeping power. This view of the system they’re supposed to a part of leads them do extremely destabilizing things that help push the country to the brink.
  3. Trump 2024
    Just Trump being the 2024 nominee would, in itself, be enough to cause a civil war at some point in late 2024 – early 2025. He just has a special knack for “owning the libs” in such a way that if he stole in 2024 election and said the “quiet part outloud” that Blue States would grow so enraged that it would be they, not Red States, that left the Union and caused a Second Civil War. But Ron DeSantis is polling exceptionally well at the moment, so either Trump politically shivs him at some point, or he co-ops him, making him his VP, opening the door to DeSantis becoming America’s Putin at some point down the road a little bit.
  4. Steve K Bannon.
    Bannon and his toadies are actively working to destroy the framework that we use to administer free and fair elections. So, it’s very easy to imagine a situation where this gambit works in ways that Trump himself is too idiotic to pull off personally and it will be so egregious that, again, Blue States leave the Union and we have a Second American Civil War.
  5. Extreme negative polarization
    We’re in for a bump four or so years, no matter what, because negative polarization, on a systemic level, has reached a critical mass. When one of your political parties is fascist and would rather crash the global economy instead of even appear to work for the good of the nation — you got a problem.
  6. A lack of shared values
    As the big blow up on Twitter in the last 24 hours about a Stephen Colbert song and dance gag about getting vaccinated proves — we can’t even agree on what’s funny. A combination of this and negative polarization is leading to the United States being two nations, one Red, one Blue and when we get around to attempting to elect the next president, the system simply won’t be prepared for the passions it will stir up.
  7. A potentially historic miscalculation on the part of Republicans
    It’s possible that, much like European powers in the lead up to WW1, when the time comes and Republicans have a choice between peacefully transitioning us into autocracy or fucking with us all so we want to take up arms, they will choose the latter not because they have to, but because they want to. It’s possible that by the 2024 — 2025 period, Republicans will see a civil war as their only choice to consolidate power, even if it’s clear that they could get everything they ever wanted within the system they so obviously loath.

The Stormy Daniels Playbook has served Trump very, very well since at least the Access Hollywood Tape and, as such, it’s inevitably the thing he leans into the moment he realizes whatever it is he’s done wrong isn’t just a PR problem but a Big Boy Crime.

And so, we find ourselves with yet another Big Boy Crime that Trump has committed — espionage. This is so serious that two extreme things of equal value are now careening towards each other at an alarming rate. The absolute fidelity of MAGA to Trump is rushing towards the absolute need for the Justice Department to finally, finally hold Trump accountable for something so absolutely bad that it’s inexcusable, even for political reasons.

We all may be Antifa soon.

As such, if we really do “catch” Trump this time — which I find extremely unlikely — literally anything can happen. I fear we’re underestimating not only the fanatical fidelity to dingus Trump MAGA has, but how unstable the country is in general. To me, it seems the key issue is — if Trump, in a panic, demanded Red States leave the Union in his usual dog whistle way, would they actually call secessionist conventions?

Is that even really within the realm of possibility?

I honestly don’t know at the moment. I do think a state like Texas might do it if Trump demanded it, then once that began to happen, all eyes would turn to South Carolina to see if they would be the one to actually be the first to do it. And, yet, because of race, there’s a chance that some sort of extra legal method would have to be used in South Carolina if that state wanted to leave the Union. But I could maybe see Texas, South Carolina, Arizona, Montana, Wyoming, Idaho, Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama and Mississippi begin to seriously consider leaving the Union if Trump began to rant about this possibility because he was actually going to be held accountable. There are a number of other Red States that would probably leave the Union as well, but those are just the ones that I thought of off the top of my head.

Florida would be would be a very interesting situation because Ron DeSantis would have to figure out if he wanted to risk destroying his very viable path to being America’s first autocrat to playing second fiddle in the new state of Trumplandia.

All of that is very fantastical. I think, in the end, Trump is going to get away with even espionage. We’re going to punt this grievous, severe crisis down the road until 2024 -2025 and it will be Blue States who have to do a gut check about if they want to bend a knee to dingus Trump or not.

Good luck.

Macro trends are not on America’s side. As I keep saying, 2024 is going to be it. It’s the year when either the United States turns into a Russian-style “managed democracy” or there’s a civil war. Now, this isn’t going to be a complete list of the 50 states, but I am going to highlight some of the states that may be more problematic should a Second American Civil War erupt.

Oregon
The state is really two states and, as such, is probably going to be a major flashpoint in any Second Civil War. What’s likely to happen is Portland will buck any attempt at a putsch on the part of bonkers Right wing nutjobs in the rest of the state and, as such, either there’s a really blood struggle in the state or there are a massive amount of political refugees from the Portland area as the rest of the state sides with MAGA.

Virginia
Again, this is really two states. There’s the NOVA-Richmond-Hampton Roads urban corridor and everything else. It’s very easy to imagine a situation — especially with Virginia’s historic ties to the first Civil War — where the state implodes as we grow closer and closer to a Second Civil War. Too many good old boys in the rural areas of Virginia might get wrapped up in the “Lost Cause” mythos and decide to seize places like Danville (the last capitol of the Confederacy) or Richmond (another Confederate capitol.) If nothing else, simply because of the larger population of the “Blue” parts of the state, there will be significant violence and political refugees as the Blues consolidate power.

Michigan
I don’t know as much about this state, but it definitely seems as though once the pre-war process of coups and political consolation begins that there will be at least a coup attempt on the part of the Far Right. Again, don’t underestimate how once you actually start murdering people that the dynamics of things change significantly. It’s very possible that there would be a coup in the state, it would fail, and there would be significant political violence as the state’s Blue population fought back and put the state firmly on the Blue side.

New York
Yet again, we have a situation where once politics fails us that the otherwise banal regional differences in a state tears it apart. New York City is far more progressive than the rest of New York State and, depending on how things work out, it’s possible that New York City could become a revolutionary hotbed to the point that is tears itself away from the rest of the state and proclaims itself a Free City. This almost happen during the first Civil War. If nothing else, there will be a serious jiggling of the relationship between NYC and the rest of the state to the point where it aligns itself in any Second Civil War with New Jersey and Connecticut in a way that update New York does not. Or, again, there could be significant political consolidation as Blues from all over the northeast flee to New York and the MAGA-friendly natives of the state flee elsewhere.

Maine
I really don’t know that much about this state other than a vague belief that the northern part of the state is far different than the southern part. It’s very easy to imagine significant consolation in the state one way or another as people flee to it as the rest of the country buckles. The state is big — if sparsely populated — and it’s strategic location near the Canadian border might be enough for it to be the home to large refugee camps.

Texas
Texas would be in an odd situation as the country fell into civil war because its long-term political trend is shifting Blue, but it’s part of the South and a lot of people consider themselves Southern and MAGA. So either it simply buckles into its own intra-civil war or the MAGA cocksucker fucktards push out all the Blues who flee to Blue States nearby. The end result would be a lot of pissed off former Texans who would be of great benefit to the Blue cause.

California
In a sense, the whole fate of the United States rests on what California does. If it simply bolts from the Union, then that significantly hobbles the Blue cause on the ground. California sitting on its hands and become its own nation in the event of a Second Civil War makes it far more likely that either Red states win or there is some sort of half-ass balkanization of the United States. But if California stays and fights, then they could provide not only the necessary economy and population for a Blue state victory — after many, many dead — but also something of a vision for what America would look like after we’re finished bombing ourselves into oblivion.

The Deep South
It’s very easy to imagine at the onset of a Second American Civil War most of the old Confederacy on a political level getting extremely excited and having a massive amount of momentum to either leave the Union outright or support the Republican controlled Congress’ attempt to brazenly steal the election. Then reality would sink in — all of the Southern states have significant African American populations and once politics is no longer a viable method of solving problems then the far more brutal dynamics of realpolitik would kick in. I just can’t imagine millions of African Americans lulzing a return to the Confederacy, no matter how badly the white political establishment of those states may want it. So, even though the South has a lot of people and a big economy, it would be, on a regional basis, too busy fighting a race war to really help the Red cause all that much. If things really grew as radical as I fear they will — probably because WMD are stolen and cities start to get vaporized — it’s the Deep South where you’re most likely to see some WW2 level atrocities as radicalized whites begin to murder blacks en mass.

As for the rest of the states, their ability to pick one side or the other is probably far easier and their biggest problem would be dealing with political refugees.

We’re In The Twilight Of The Post WW2 Pax Americana Era

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Enjoy these last few months of the post-WW2 era of Pax Americana. At any moment, everything could change in a rather dramatic and violent manner. I don’t know what it will be, but the nation is so much on edge that there definitely seems to be an air of inevitability to it all.

I continue to read a political biography of Hitler about his ascent and it continues to remind me of what’s going on right now in the United States. And, yet, I also continue to notice as I read — Trump is no Hitler. The biggest difference between the two men is even though both of them are very lazy, Trump is by far the lazier of the two.

Even Hitler was willing to do the basic organizational work necessary to get and maintain autocratic power. Trump, meanwhile, is an empty suit. He’s a brat. He thinks that just by ranting a lot he can get what he wants. Now, obviously, some of this has changed with his Schedule F idea. Schedule F is very much a Nazi-like idea. Which brings up the idea again that Trump, unto himself, could start a civil war because he will try to ram through a very radical fascist agenda from the moment he gets into power.

While I absolutely believe that someone like Ron DeSantis will, at a minimum, become an American Putin. But he’s smart enough to slather some sugar on the initial stages of his personal guiding of America into a political Russian clone. Trump, meanwhile, is so deranged that he could very well personally be the reason why Blue states like California begin to call up secessionist conventions at some point in late 2024, early 2025.

I know that sounds hysterical. I get it. And to some extent a lot of what I’m talking about is things I believe that, all things being equal, have the possibility of happening. It doesn’t mean they will. If you really wanted to get nitty-gritty about it, the more I think about it, the more it seems like the U.S. Military would step in and run the country if there was any real risk of civil war. I am well aware that this runs counter to everything the American military believes on an institutional basis, but if the other choice was sitting back and watching the country collapse into chaos, I could see us having an Acting President James Mattis for a few months until we sorted things out through a Constitutional Convention.

But the point is, like I keep saying, this is it — the America we’ve known for about 70 years is just about over and done with. Something is about to replace it. What that will be is still to be determined.

‘Stop The Steal 2024:’ What Happens When Voting Really Is Moot?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It’s going to be pretty fucking ironic when the very thing that cry baby MAGA people thought happened with the 2020 election — that it was stolen — really does happen in 2024 to Blues. The moment it becomes clear that voting is moot and the Republicans have successfully turned the United States into an autocracy is the moment of truth.

Either we have a “National Divorce” and, as such, a civil war, or we just give up and become an autocracy. Now, it’s very possible that Trump could very well win the 2024 election without cheating, but it’s his nature to cheat and if that cheating so so brazen that Blues can’t escape it — the potential for a massive clusterfuck exists. And the more I think about it, the more I wonder what role the U.S. Military will be in such a scenario.

If there is real doubt as to who won the 2024 election will they sit back and watch as the country collapses into chaos, or will they step in. Is it possible that we could find ourselves with some sort of military junta while the issue of who is president is sorted out? The fact that SCOUTS might validate the idea of “legislative independence” when it comes to elections is a massive ticking time political time bomb for a number of reasons.

But one thing is clear, we’ve officially reached the danger zone when it comes to America’s fate. Things could go any number of different directions between now and January 2025. We could have some sort of MAGA “revolution.” We could have a Blue “National Divorce” because of the brazen theft of the 2024 election by MAGA. Or we could just slip peacefully into autocracy and that will be that. If we’re lucky, we endup somewhere around Hungary politically and if we’re not, we turn into a Russia clone.

A lot, of course, depends on if Trump is the 2024 Republican nominee. At the moment, it definitely seems as though he will be — even if he has to run from prison. As such, he is such a chaos agent that he could, unto himself, cause a civil war. And if it isn’t because he steals the 2024 election, it could be that his agenda for his second term is so radical and so jarring to Blue states that they demand that secessionist conventions be called.

As such, it would be Blues, not Reds, that start a civil war. But Republicans are quite clear how much they not only hate democracy but don’t believe it in it in the first place. So, they would have only themselves to blame if a National Divorce happened because Blue states were enraged by the death of our democracy.

Below is a scenario I came up with some time ago as to how we might have a civil war.

Here are some reasons why we will have a civil war.

  1. Republicans have come to glorify political violence
    Something you see a lot these days within the bullshit echo chamber of the MAGA New Right is the belief that because “liberals won’t leave us alone” that they are being “driven” to extremism. There’s a lot of leading not-so-vague talk as to what all this would ultimately mean. But it’s clear that for a number of “thought leaders” within the MAGA New Right that they have accepted that at some point in the future, they’re going to have to resort to violence to get what they want.
  2. Republicans no longer believe in democracy
    It is now clear that like any good fascists, Republicans no longer believe in democracy unless it’s for the specific purpose of gaining and keeping power. This view of the system they’re supposed to a part of leads them do extremely destabilizing things that help push the country to the brink.
  3. Trump 2024
    Just Trump being the 2024 nominee would, in itself, be enough to cause a civil war at some point in late 2024 – early 2025. He just has a special knack for “owning the libs” in such a way that if he stole in 2024 election and said the “quiet part outloud” that Blue States would grow so enraged that it would be they, not Red States, that left the Union and caused a Second Civil War. But Ron DeSantis is polling exceptionally well at the moment, so either Trump politically shivs him at some point, or he co-ops him, making him his VP, opening the door to DeSantis becoming America’s Putin at some point down the road a little bit.
  4. Steve K Bannon.
    Bannon and his toadies are actively working to destroy the framework that we use to administer free and fair elections. So, it’s very easy to imagine a situation where this gambit works in ways that Trump himself is too idiotic to pull off personally and it will be so egregious that, again, Blue States leave the Union and we have a Second American Civil War.
  5. Extreme negative polarization
    We’re in for a bump four or so years, no matter what, because negative polarization, on a systemic level, has reached a critical mass. When one of your political parties is fascist and would rather crash the global economy instead of even appear to work for the good of the nation — you got a problem.
  6. A lack of shared values
    As the big blow up on Twitter in the last 24 hours about a Stephen Colbert song and dance gag about getting vaccinated proves — we can’t even agree on what’s funny. A combination of this and negative polarization is leading to the United States being two nations, one Red, one Blue and when we get around to attempting to elect the next president, the system simply won’t be prepared for the passions it will stir up.
  7. A potentially historic miscalculation on the part of Republicans
    It’s possible that, much like European powers in the lead up to WW1, when the time comes and Republicans have a choice between peacefully transitioning us into autocracy or fucking with us all so we want to take up arms, they will choose the latter not because they have to, but because they want to. It’s possible that by the 2024 — 2025 period, Republicans will see a civil war as their only choice to consolidate power, even if it’s clear that they could get everything they ever wanted within the system they so obviously loath.

And, honestly, the only thing standing in the way of an autocrat becoming president in 2025 and seizing “total control” pretty quick is any potential cleaving between MAGA and the Republican Party that takes place between now and then.

Given what I’m seeing right now, it definitely doesn’t seem as though that’s going to be a problem. At this point, it seems as though Republicans will first win power in Congress in 2022, then win the presidency (one way or anther) in 2024 and that will be that.

The autocracy we feared during the Trump Era will come, just four years later than we all expected. But…

There’s a real chance that our transition from liberal democracy to autocracy won’t be as smooth as I think — there could be a civil war. One side — or the other — won’t accept the results of the election and the country will finally buckle. All the nightmare scenarios that I came up with in 2020-2021, will just happen in 2024-2025.

If what happened in 2020 is any indication, the first sign that we would have that something was amiss would be on the local level. Instead of people who simply do their job as Americans and do the rather perfunctory duty of certifying the win of A Democrat, this doesn’t happen. In crucial voting districts all across swing states, Bannon’s “spiritual shock troops” either refuse to certify the win of A Democrat, or they go so far as to YOLO things and switch the win to Trump.

As this happens, the tension in United States escalates day by day. The very rallying cry of MAGA in 2020 — “Stop The Steal” will be adopted by the center-Left when it becomes clear that the MAGA New Right is hell bent on brazenly stealing the 2024 election in broad daylight.

But remember, the center-Left has a very different personality than the MAGA New Right. The center-Left, for all it’s problems with “cancel culture” and being “woke” is still actually connected to reality. So, there would be a struggle between the natural inclination of centrist Liberals to let the “process work” and Leftists who would want to burn everything to the ground given how corrupted everything had become.

All of this turmoil on the local level would find elections in crucial states thrown into the political realm where MAGA state legislatures and Secretary’s of State would begin to actively ensure that A Democrat is prevented from winning. Every day between Election Day 2024 and Certification Day 2025 things would grow more and more unstable in the United States as it became clear that Bannon’s long-planned “administrative coup” was actually going to work.

There would be mass confusion. Lots of lawsuits

And, remember, if Trump is involved, as all of this is going on, he would do everything in his personal power to rile up both sides. If his ongoing, progressive cognitive decline has gotten bad enough, he might even go transactional.

It would be around this point that I could see Blue governors begin to make serious plans to leave the Union. A lot would depend on what California was willing to do. But it would definitely make sense that California would be the first state to call a Secessionist Convention in preparation of leaving the Union if the 2024 election is, in fact, stolen.

But by some point between Thanksgiving and Christmas, you could see some sort of summit of Blue Governors where they debate their plans to leave the Union if the very thing that the MAGA New Right wants — to turn the United States into an autocracy — actually happens.

And as we approached Certification Day in January 2025, the last step in the crisis would happen. If you thought Certification Day 2021 was bad, just wait until Republicans are actively going over and above what they did then when it rolls around in 2025. So, the system will have been corrupted at both the local and state level. And then if that doesn’t work, Republicans will again try to throw the election into the House and Senate to buy time, if nothing else.

So, let me be clear — anyone who thinks we’re going to have some sort of MAGA New Right revolution a la The Turner Diaries — is a fool. Any Second American Civil War we have is probably going to be started by Blue States leaving the Union out of disgust that the fix is in.

Therefore, by the time Certification Day 2025 rolls around, it could very well be a foregone conclusion that we’re going to have a pretty organized civil war. Republicans have no shame and don’t apparently care about the consequences of their actions, so, lulz, we could find ourselves in the absolute worst of worlds because not only are states actively thinking about leaving the Union around this time, but the whole process of figuring out who is POTUS will be languishing in Congress. Republicans, because they are politically blood thirsty and will cheat, will win the power struggle, but there’s a chance states will begin leaving the Union.

It won’t be deranged, individual MAGA New Right blowing stuff up in some sort of rearguard action. It’s going to be a Blue Nation verses a Red Nation. A lot of the same things that happened in the First American Civil War will happen in the second. The U.S. Military will implode as people from Blue States leave it to establish a new Blue State military.

But one thing we have to expect in late 2024 to early 2025 is a mass migration of people across the country as people no longer feel safe living in an area of the country that doesn’t fit their politics. It could be rather frightening.

If it were, God forbid, to happen, I would guess that a Second American Civil War will begin between Certification Day 2025 and Inauguration Day 2025. In other words, as Trump is being sworn in, mass chaos will have erupted across the United States.

Once the hollowed out American military turns it attention to the Blue rebellion at the behest of Trump, it won’t be too long before WMD are sized and used by both sides. Not only would America bomb itself into oblivion with its eyes wide open, but it will be done in the context of WW3 definitely breaking out across the globe because the US will be too busy imploding to ensure the continuation of the post WW2 global order.

How’s that for a New World Order.

Macro trends are not on America’s side. As I keep saying, 2024 is going to be it. It’s the year when either the United States turns into a Russian-style “managed democracy” or there’s a civil war. Now, this isn’t going to be a complete list of the 50 states, but I am going to highlight some of the states that may be more problematic should a Second American Civil War erupt.

Oregon
The state is really two states and, as such, is probably going to be a major flashpoint in any Second Civil War. What’s likely to happen is Portland will buck any attempt at a putsch on the part of bonkers Right wing nutjobs in the rest of the state and, as such, either there’s a really blood struggle in the state or there are a massive amount of political refugees from the Portland area as the rest of the state sides with MAGA.

Virginia
Again, this is really two states. There’s the NOVA-Richmond-Hampton Roads urban corridor and everything else. It’s very easy to imagine a situation — especially with Virginia’s historic ties to the first Civil War — where the state implodes as we grow closer and closer to a Second Civil War. Too many good old boys in the rural areas of Virginia might get wrapped up in the “Lost Cause” mythos and decide to seize places like Danville (the last capitol of the Confederacy) or Richmond (another Confederate capitol.) If nothing else, simply because of the larger population of the “Blue” parts of the state, there will be significant violence and political refugees as the Blues consolidate power.

Michigan
I don’t know as much about this state, but it definitely seems as though once the pre-war process of coups and political consolation begins that there will be at least a coup attempt on the part of the Far Right. Again, don’t underestimate how once you actually start murdering people that the dynamics of things change significantly. It’s very possible that there would be a coup in the state, it would fail, and there would be significant political violence as the state’s Blue population fought back and put the state firmly on the Blue side.

New York
Yet again, we have a situation where once politics fails us that the otherwise banal regional differences in a state tears it apart. New York City is far more progressive than the rest of New York State and, depending on how things work out, it’s possible that New York City could become a revolutionary hotbed to the point that is tears itself away from the rest of the state and proclaims itself a Free City. This almost happen during the first Civil War. If nothing else, there will be a serious jiggling of the relationship between NYC and the rest of the state to the point where it aligns itself in any Second Civil War with New Jersey and Connecticut in a way that update New York does not. Or, again, there could be significant political consolidation as Blues from all over the northeast flee to New York and the MAGA-friendly natives of the state flee elsewhere.

Maine
I really don’t know that much about this state other than a vague belief that the northern part of the state is far different than the southern part. It’s very easy to imagine significant consolation in the state one way or another as people flee to it as the rest of the country buckles. The state is big — if sparsely populated — and it’s strategic location near the Canadian border might be enough for it to be the home to large refugee camps.

Texas
Texas would be in an odd situation as the country fell into civil war because its long-term political trend is shifting Blue, but it’s part of the South and a lot of people consider themselves Southern and MAGA. So either it simply buckles into its own intra-civil war or the MAGA cocksucker fucktards push out all the Blues who flee to Blue States nearby. The end result would be a lot of pissed off former Texans who would be of great benefit to the Blue cause.

California
In a sense, the whole fate of the United States rests on what California does. If it simply bolts from the Union, then that significantly hobbles the Blue cause on the ground. California sitting on its hands and become its own nation in the event of a Second Civil War makes it far more likely that either Red states win or there is some sort of half-ass balkanization of the United States. But if California stays and fights, then they could provide not only the necessary economy and population for a Blue state victory — after many, many dead — but also something of a vision for what America would look like after we’re finished bombing ourselves into oblivion.

The Deep South
It’s very easy to imagine at the onset of a Second American Civil War most of the old Confederacy on a political level getting extremely excited and having a massive amount of momentum to either leave the Union outright or support the Republican controlled Congress’ attempt to brazenly steal the election. Then reality would sink in — all of the Southern states have significant African American populations and once politics is no longer a viable method of solving problems then the far more brutal dynamics of realpolitik would kick in. I just can’t imagine millions of African Americans lulzing a return to the Confederacy, no matter how badly the white political establishment of those states may want it. So, even though the South has a lot of people and a big economy, it would be, on a regional basis, too busy fighting a race war to really help the Red cause all that much. If things really grew as radical as I fear they will — probably because WMD are stolen and cities start to get vaporized — it’s the Deep South where you’re most likely to see some WW2 level atrocities as radicalized whites begin to murder blacks en mass.

As for the rest of the states, their ability to pick one side or the other is probably far easier and their biggest problem would be dealing with political refugees.

Or, put another way, we’re fucked. We’re totally, completely fucked one way or another. Either we turn into an autocracy or Red and Blue begin to murder each other in cold political blood. The usual outcome of all this bullshit that we have come to expect — simply muddling along until we come to some solution one way or another — is not longer a valid option.

Fuck You, Fascists, Bring It On

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

When I was growing up, my late mother would often say that I “wasn’t afraid of the devil.” And while I’m not exactly the most courageous person on practical, physical basis, when it comes to standing up to an idea I disagree with I’m a pretty big badass. I have a strong sense of self and a strong sense of what “justice” is.

As such, I find myself growing more and more angry at the intimidation tactics of the frothy MAGA New Right. Just take a look at this:

This is the type of bullshit that people who simply want to live in a traditional liberal democracy have to put up with these days. I have no beef with conservatives, but I do have a beef with fascists. And the MAGA New Right is a bunch of fucking fascists that are either going to turn us into a Russian-style autocracy or are going to ultimately cause the death of more people around the world than the Nazis did.

While I know that sounds pretty hysterical, it’s the truth. And I wish the center-Left wouldn’t allow itself to cower behind “norms” anymore. The MAGA New Right is out for political blood — they say it very outloud these days — and there’s going to come a point when they’re going to attempt to sucker punch the forces of the center-Left.

I’m a man of peace. A man of ideas. But we “Antifa,” (if you will) have gird our loins for what may be about to come — actual, significant political violence against democratic institutions in the United States. And, what’s even worse, there is the other option, of course, which is we just turn into an autocracy without even putting up a struggle.

If that happens, then, of course, wealthy liberals will flee the country at an alarming rate, to the point that instead of freaking out about “caravans” at the border Fox News will scream about “unpatriotic” liberals fleeing the country and demand our autocrat do something about it.

Now, as is always the case whenever we discuss such a clusterfuck, there is the issue of Trump. He is such a fucking chaos agent that he could very well, unto himself, be the reason why we have a catastrophic “National Divorce” that precipitates a Second American Civil War.

He really is that bad.

I think a lot of the reason why I keep writing about this is I learned in Asia that I often do well in chaos. And it definitely seems as though the United States is going to collapse into mass, violent chaos at some point between now and January 2025.

At the moment, I can’t do anything on a practical basis to prepare, so I find myself writing a lot about it because it makes me feel better to turn my very real abstract fears into something a little bit more concrete.

Anyway, I have no idea what we’re going to do. Get ready for the “Fourth Turning” or “Great Reset.”

It’s coming.

The MAGA New Right Catastrophe of 2022 – 2025 (& Beyond)

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I hate to talk about the pseudoscience of The Fourth Turning, but it’s an handy way to talk about what I fear will happen between now and January 2025. All systems are go for a significant change in the lives of everyday Americans, we just don’t know if it will be a final descent into autocracy or if it will be something akin to a civil war / WW3.

The chief reason why I believe this to be the case is the absolute fidelity that dingus Trump continues to have over the MAGA base. No good can come of this situation. I say this because it seems as though a lot Twitter liberals, who should know better, continue to assume that just because they “hope” that Something Will Change in regards to Trump should he be indicted, doesn’t mean it will.

Or, put another way, a lot of brand name people on both the Right and the Left seem to think there is some limit whereby Trump will get the hint and step aside for the good of the nation, or, for the good of Ron DeSantis and the Republican Party, if nothing else.

And, welp, I just don’t think that’s the case.

I think Trump, in his own very stupid way, is prepared to literally destroy the United States rather than personally either have to move aside for DeSantis or to go to jail. Have we learned nothing from what happened around January 6th? As such, we are primed and ready as a nation for a historic catastrophe. The likes we haven’t seen domestically since the First American Civil War and internationally since WW2.

There is a real greater-than-zero-sum chance that there really will be a Great Reset. That, in a sense, we’re going to have an End of, maybe not The World, but A World. The World we’ve all assumed we would live in after WW2 ended in 1945. And it could all begin to unravel at pretty much any moment now. All we don’t know is the specifics.

Are we going to peacefully slip into autocracy after the 2024 election and turn into a MAGA-themed Fortress America, or are we going to enter a period of rapid, violent change that will stun us all. And, would you believe, at this point, it all really depends on what ding-dong Trump does?

I continue to struggle with the implications of Trump simply refusing to get out of the way. Everyone really, really wants Trump to get out of the way for Ron DeSantis so he can become America’s Putin. And, yet, Trump is more likely to bolt the Republican Party with his MAGA base than he is to give up on his quest to become POTUS in 2024.

One other thing — the conditions for grave instability in the United States starting at (check’s watch) any fucking moment are right there in front of us. Biden is very old and Harris is young and untested. If something, God forbid, happens to Biden, then we could have a situation where there was no veep and Trump could suddenly find every reason to demand to be named Speaker of the House should Republicans take the House this year.

I just want you, gentle reader, to realize the gravity of the situation we face between now and January 2025. We’re one heartbeat away from a Great Reset. I mean, if Trump goes the Scalia route and simply peacefully shuffles off this mortal coil in his sleep — America’s cities would be burned to the ground by very paranoid, very angry MAGA New Right people.

Trump isn’t going anywhere, though, most likely and we’re all going to have to deal with the consequences of that. It’s going to get very, very messy, very, very quickly. Millions — even billions — of people could die, depending on the specifics of any supposed “Great Reset” or “Fourth Turning.”

My Hot Take On Liz Cheney Losing Her Primary

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

While I am well known for my abstract hysterics about how bad things are in the United States at the moment as MAGA continues to be ascendant, occasionally, there is a concrete thing I can point to and say — “That’s bad!”

U.S. Representative Liz Cheney (R-WY) delivers an opening statement during the opening hearing of the U.S. House (Select) Committee investigating the January 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol, on July 27, 2021 at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, DC. During its first hearing the committee, currently made up of seven Democrats and two Republicans, will hear testimony from law enforcement officers about their experiences while defending the Capitol from the pro-Trump mob on January 6. (Photo by Jim Bourg-Pool/Getty Images)

And that’s how I feel about Liz Cheney losing her primary. Even though on policy, I pretty much disagree with her 100%, when it comes to her willing to sacrifice politically in the name of defending democracy I back her just as much. In fact, I’m so desperate for principled leadership and an elected leader who at least believes that the United States IS a democracy that I’m willing to entertain the idea of voting for Cheney. I say this especially in the context of her potentially being a part of a Unity Ticket.

Anyway, the Republican Party is very autocratic and growing ever more so by the moment. It is inevitable that they will gain power again and when they do, I’m not totally sure that they’re going to ever give it up peacefully. And autocracy is so popular, that there’s a decent chance that Trump could win outright in 2024, no cheating required.

He will cheat anyway, of course, because that’s his nature.

We have to prepare for the United States being faced with the deeply existential choice of autocracy or civil war starting in late 2024, early 2025. If Trump is the Republican nominee, this choice is going to be very, very extreme and severe. There won’t be any middle ground.

And, of course, there is the very real possibility that something akin to The Troubles of Northern Ireland might happen in the United States before then. MAGA is already chomping at the bit to murder people like me in cold blood for political reasons — they sure do come to this Website a lot looking for my dystopian hellscape scenarios.

Too bad my nightmare is their dream. What I fear, they want.

Or, to reiterate, we’re past the Event Horizon for civil war or autocracy and we’re in the danger zone of severe political violence erupting at any moment. It could start because Democrats have an upset win in November. It could happen because Trump is indicted. It could be that Trump pulls a Scalia on us and dies peacefully in his sleep. It could happen for you name it. Anything and everything might be the final straw for MAGA and they grab their AR-15s to murder people like me in cold blood. It’s already all they talk about!

Anyway. I’ve already begun to feel the same sense of rage I felt when Trump was president. I hope to channel that rage into six novels and hopefully finish them before I drop dead. But I have to accept the very real possibility that at some point between now and around 2025 I may become a domestic political refugee and will have to find succor somewhere outside of my current abode because all my MAGA neighbors want to murder me for my political views.

We all may be Antifa before it’s over with.

But, back to Cheney. I really respect her principles. And I still believe that if we do have a National Divorce that she could, ironically, become a Blue State America leader. It would be surreal, but when such tectonic historic forces are a play virtually anything is possible.

We may be in for some pretty fucking strange events between now and January 2025.

Today’s Search That Brought Someone To This Website: ‘CIVIL WAR COMING IN US’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I like to use the searches that bring people to this obscure Website as writing prompts. The most recent one is,  “CIVIL WAR COMING IN US.” So, let’s help this person out. I’m assuming it was a question. I think. But let’s talk about that — is a civil war coming to the US?

Here are some reasons why we may have a civil war over and above the FBI raid of Mar-a-Lago.

  1. Republicans have come to glorify political violence
    Something you see a lot these days within the bullshit echo chamber of the MAGA New Right is the belief that because “liberals won’t leave us alone” that they are being “driven” to extremism. There’s a lot of leading not-so-vague talk as to what all this would ultimately mean. But it’s clear that for a number of “thought leaders” within the MAGA New Right that they have accepted that at some point in the future, they’re going to have to resort to violence to get what they want.
  2. Republicans no longer believe in democracy
    It is now clear that like any good fascists, Republicans no longer believe in democracy unless it’s for the specific purpose of gaining and keeping power. This view of the system they’re supposed to a part of leads them do extremely destabilizing things that help push the country to the brink.
  3. Trump 2024
    Just Trump being the 2024 nominee would, in itself, be enough to cause a civil war at some point in late 2024 – early 2025. He just has a special knack for “owning the libs” in such a way that if he stole in 2024 election and said the “quiet part outloud” that Blue States would grow so enraged that it would be they, not Red States, that left the Union and caused a Second Civil War. But Ron DeSantis is polling exceptionally well at the moment, so either Trump politically shivs him at some point, or he co-ops him, making him his VP, opening the door to DeSantis becoming America’s Putin at some point down the road a little bit.
  4. Steve K Bannon.
    Bannon and his toadies are actively working to destroy the framework that we use to administer free and fair elections. So, it’s very easy to imagine a situation where this gambit works in ways that Trump himself is too idiotic to pull off personally and it will be so egregious that, again, Blue States leave the Union and we have a Second American Civil War.
  5. Extreme negative polarization
    We’re in for a bump four or so years, no matter what, because negative polarization, on a systemic level, has reached a critical mass. When one of your political parties is fascist and would rather crash the global economy instead of even appear to work for the good of the nation — you got a problem.
  6. A lack of shared values
    As the big blow up on Twitter in the last 24 hours about a Stephen Colbert song and dance gag about getting vaccinated proves — we can’t even agree on what’s funny. A combination of this and negative polarization is leading to the United States being two nations, one Red, one Blue and when we get around to attempting to elect the next president, the system simply won’t be prepared for the passions it will stir up.
  7. A potentially historic miscalculation on the part of Republicans
    It’s possible that, much like European powers in the lead up to WW1, when the time comes and Republicans have a choice between peacefully transitioning us into autocracy or fucking with us all so we want to take up arms, they will choose the latter not because they have to, but because they want to. It’s possible that by the 2024 — 2025 period, Republicans will see a civil war as their only choice to consolidate power, even if it’s clear that they could get everything they ever wanted within the system they so obviously loath.

Well, the logic for one happening is there now. And all the conditions for one exist. And, yet, barring Trump going transactional, I just don’t see it happening anytime soon. It may happen in late 2024, early 2025 when Blue states leave the Union because MAGA brazenly steals the 2024 election.

But, like I said, Trump has the means, motive and opportunity to single handedly start a civil war — he gets indicted and he lashes out, going transactional and demanding that his followers go Gotterdammerung on the United States. It would not take too many incidents of MAGA lonewolves with AR-15s murdering 30 or 40 people for political reasons for what came next to be marketed as “America’s Second Civil War.”

And, I have to admit that the United States is very much on edge. I won’t totally dismiss the idea of some sort of spontaneous “popular” revolt on the part of MAGA simply because we will have reached a point of such absolute division in the United States that there would seem to be an air of inevitability about a civil war.

And, as I said in my most recent Vibe Shift podcast, there are two things to think about when talking about when a civil war might start — “when” and “civil war.” What do you mean by “when.” I’m assuming what the fucking fascist cocksuckers of MAGA who are chomping at the bit to murder people like me mean when they say “when” is “when can I murder liberals and the rules of war, not law, apply?” In other words, under the rules of a war, they could just run around and murder anyone whose politics they didn’t like — like me — and they wouldn’t be arrested because the Federal government would be overwhelmed by a civil war.

Also, what is a “civil war?” What do they mean by that term? I often think that a “civil war” or “revolution” is something mentioned by the far Right for no other reason than those two concepts are the worst possible thing they can think of. The Far Right has reached the point, however, when they are chomping at the bit to start running around with the AR-15, murdering people like me in cold political blood.

So. What does all of this mean?

It means while a civil war COULD simply start as something of a popular uprising, I have my doubts that it’s going to happen in 2022. It might happen in 2024 – 2025 when Blues leave the Union to protest the theft of the 2024 election. But in 2022 on the part of MAGA to protest the indictment of Trump? Maybe. But not likely.

Macro trends are not on America’s side. As I keep saying, 2024 is going to be it. It’s the year when either the United States turns into a Russian-style “managed democracy” or there’s a civil war. Now, this isn’t going to be a complete list of the 50 states, but I am going to highlight some of the states that may be more problematic should a Second American Civil War erupt.

Oregon
The state is really two states and, as such, is probably going to be a major flashpoint in any Second Civil War. What’s likely to happen is Portland will buck any attempt at a putsch on the part of bonkers Right wing nutjobs in the rest of the state and, as such, either there’s a really blood struggle in the state or there are a massive amount of political refugees from the Portland area as the rest of the state sides with MAGA.

Virginia
Again, this is really two states. There’s the NOVA-Richmond-Hampton Roads urban corridor and everything else. It’s very easy to imagine a situation — especially with Virginia’s historic ties to the first Civil War — where the state implodes as we grow closer and closer to a Second Civil War. Too many good old boys in the rural areas of Virginia might get wrapped up in the “Lost Cause” mythos and decide to seize places like Danville (the last capitol of the Confederacy) or Richmond (another Confederate capitol.) If nothing else, simply because of the larger population of the “Blue” parts of the state, there will be significant violence and political refugees as the Blues consolidate power.

Michigan
I don’t know as much about this state, but it definitely seems as though once the pre-war process of coups and political consolation begins that there will be at least a coup attempt on the part of the Far Right. Again, don’t underestimate how once you actually start murdering people that the dynamics of things change significantly. It’s very possible that there would be a coup in the state, it would fail, and there would be significant political violence as the state’s Blue population fought back and put the state firmly on the Blue side.

New York
Yet again, we have a situation where once politics fails us that the otherwise banal regional differences in a state tears it apart. New York City is far more progressive than the rest of New York State and, depending on how things work out, it’s possible that New York City could become a revolutionary hotbed to the point that is tears itself away from the rest of the state and proclaims itself a Free City. This almost happen during the first Civil War. If nothing else, there will be a serious jiggling of the relationship between NYC and the rest of the state to the point where it aligns itself in any Second Civil War with New Jersey and Connecticut in a way that update New York does not. Or, again, there could be significant political consolidation as Blues from all over the northeast flee to New York and the MAGA-friendly natives of the state flee elsewhere.

Maine
I really don’t know that much about this state other than a vague belief that the northern part of the state is far different than the southern part. It’s very easy to imagine significant consolation in the state one way or another as people flee to it as the rest of the country buckles. The state is big — if sparsely populated — and it’s strategic location near the Canadian border might be enough for it to be the home to large refugee camps.

Texas
Texas would be in an odd situation as the country fell into civil war because its long-term political trend is shifting Blue, but it’s part of the South and a lot of people consider themselves Southern and MAGA. So either it simply buckles into its own intra-civil war or the MAGA cocksucker fucktards push out all the Blues who flee to Blue States nearby. The end result would be a lot of pissed off former Texans who would be of great benefit to the Blue cause.

California
In a sense, the whole fate of the United States rests on what California does. If it simply bolts from the Union, then that significantly hobbles the Blue cause on the ground. California sitting on its hands and become its own nation in the event of a Second Civil War makes it far more likely that either Red states win or there is some sort of half-ass balkanization of the United States. But if California stays and fights, then they could provide not only the necessary economy and population for a Blue state victory — after many, many dead — but also something of a vision for what America would look like after we’re finished bombing ourselves into oblivion.

The Deep South
It’s very easy to imagine at the onset of a Second American Civil War most of the old Confederacy on a political level getting extremely excited and having a massive amount of momentum to either leave the Union outright or support the Republican controlled Congress’ attempt to brazenly steal the election. Then reality would sink in — all of the Southern states have significant African American populations and once politics is no longer a viable method of solving problems then the far more brutal dynamics of realpolitik would kick in. I just can’t imagine millions of African Americans lulzing a return to the Confederacy, no matter how badly the white political establishment of those states may want it. So, even though the South has a lot of people and a big economy, it would be, on a regional basis, too busy fighting a race war to really help the Red cause all that much. If things really grew as radical as I fear they will — probably because WMD are stolen and cities start to get vaporized — it’s the Deep South where you’re most likely to see some WW2 level atrocities as radicalized whites begin to murder blacks en mass.

As for the rest of the states, their ability to pick one side or the other is probably far easier and their biggest problem would be dealing with political refugees.

‘When Will Civil War Begin 2022?’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

People want a simple answer to a very complicated question. They want some sense of when a civil war might start in the United States this year — if ever. The biggest issue is, what exactly do you mean a “civil war.” Do you mean a popular uprising on the part of MAGA that would be like “The Troubles” of Northern Ireland or do you mean something more organized, akin to the First American Civil War.

Here are some reasons why we may have a civil war over and above the FBI raid of Mar-a-Lago.

  1. Republicans have come to glorify political violence
    Something you see a lot these days within the bullshit echo chamber of the MAGA New Right is the belief that because “liberals won’t leave us alone” that they are being “driven” to extremism. There’s a lot of leading not-so-vague talk as to what all this would ultimately mean. But it’s clear that for a number of “thought leaders” within the MAGA New Right that they have accepted that at some point in the future, they’re going to have to resort to violence to get what they want.
  2. Republicans no longer believe in democracy
    It is now clear that like any good fascists, Republicans no longer believe in democracy unless it’s for the specific purpose of gaining and keeping power. This view of the system they’re supposed to a part of leads them do extremely destabilizing things that help push the country to the brink.
  3. Trump 2024
    Just Trump being the 2024 nominee would, in itself, be enough to cause a civil war at some point in late 2024 – early 2025. He just has a special knack for “owning the libs” in such a way that if he stole in 2024 election and said the “quiet part outloud” that Blue States would grow so enraged that it would be they, not Red States, that left the Union and caused a Second Civil War. But Ron DeSantis is polling exceptionally well at the moment, so either Trump politically shivs him at some point, or he co-ops him, making him his VP, opening the door to DeSantis becoming America’s Putin at some point down the road a little bit.
  4. Steve K Bannon.
    Bannon and his toadies are actively working to destroy the framework that we use to administer free and fair elections. So, it’s very easy to imagine a situation where this gambit works in ways that Trump himself is too idiotic to pull off personally and it will be so egregious that, again, Blue States leave the Union and we have a Second American Civil War.
  5. Extreme negative polarization
    We’re in for a bump four or so years, no matter what, because negative polarization, on a systemic level, has reached a critical mass. When one of your political parties is fascist and would rather crash the global economy instead of even appear to work for the good of the nation — you got a problem.
  6. A lack of shared values
    As the big blow up on Twitter in the last 24 hours about a Stephen Colbert song and dance gag about getting vaccinated proves — we can’t even agree on what’s funny. A combination of this and negative polarization is leading to the United States being two nations, one Red, one Blue and when we get around to attempting to elect the next president, the system simply won’t be prepared for the passions it will stir up.
  7. A potentially historic miscalculation on the part of Republicans
    It’s possible that, much like European powers in the lead up to WW1, when the time comes and Republicans have a choice between peacefully transitioning us into autocracy or fucking with us all so we want to take up arms, they will choose the latter not because they have to, but because they want to. It’s possible that by the 2024 — 2025 period, Republicans will see a civil war as their only choice to consolidate power, even if it’s clear that they could get everything they ever wanted within the system they so obviously loath.

And the issue of “when” is even more difficult to pin down. What do you expect to happen? “When” is both very nebulous and specific at the same time. It’s nebulous because what would you call the “start?” An explosion? People dying for political reasons? It’s specific because you expect there to be “An Event” that you can point to, like the battle of Fort Sumter as the “beginning.”

So, I honestly have no idea “when” a civil war will begin in 2022. But if you’re really interested in “when” a civil war will begin this year, you need to keep a close eye on Donald Trump. He has the fate of the United States in his tiny, tiny hands. If Trump goes transactional and demands political violence in an effort to intimidating the Federal government to stop them from prosecuting him. There is, of course, the idea that there could be some sort of “spontaneous” popular uprising on the part of the MAGA New Right that would involve a lot of wildcat, lone wolves with AR-15s running around, murdering people for political reasons.

That, in turn would force us towards a situation where we face the existential choice of autocracy or civil war sometime around late 2024, early 2025. So, it could be that there would be growing violence between now and that time, but it would not be as organized as what we might see as the 2024 presidential cycle comes to a climax. Because I believe that, in the end, it will be Blues who start a civil war, if it happens, because the 2024 election will have been brazenly stolen by Republicans.

And, yet, since the FBI raid of Mar-a-Lago, it’s very, very possible that a “civil war” could, in fact, start the way everyone has long thought it would — MAGA freaks out and starts blowing shit up. And it would happen for one specific reason — Donald Trump. Because, as I have already said, on a macro level, Republicans are ascendant and they have absolutely no reason to start a civil war because they’re getting everything they want via other means.

Below is a bit more detailed breakdown of description of what a civil war starting in late 2024, early 2025 might look like.

Macro trends are not on America’s side. As I keep saying, 2024 is going to be it. It’s the year when either the United States turns into a Russian-style “managed democracy” or there’s a civil war. Now, this isn’t going to be a complete list of the 50 states, but I am going to highlight some of the states that may be more problematic should a Second American Civil War erupt.

Oregon
The state is really two states and, as such, is probably going to be a major flashpoint in any Second Civil War. What’s likely to happen is Portland will buck any attempt at a putsch on the part of bonkers Right wing nutjobs in the rest of the state and, as such, either there’s a really blood struggle in the state or there are a massive amount of political refugees from the Portland area as the rest of the state sides with MAGA.

Virginia
Again, this is really two states. There’s the NOVA-Richmond-Hampton Roads urban corridor and everything else. It’s very easy to imagine a situation — especially with Virginia’s historic ties to the first Civil War — where the state implodes as we grow closer and closer to a Second Civil War. Too many good old boys in the rural areas of Virginia might get wrapped up in the “Lost Cause” mythos and decide to seize places like Danville (the last capitol of the Confederacy) or Richmond (another Confederate capitol.) If nothing else, simply because of the larger population of the “Blue” parts of the state, there will be significant violence and political refugees as the Blues consolidate power.

Michigan
I don’t know as much about this state, but it definitely seems as though once the pre-war process of coups and political consolation begins that there will be at least a coup attempt on the part of the Far Right. Again, don’t underestimate how once you actually start murdering people that the dynamics of things change significantly. It’s very possible that there would be a coup in the state, it would fail, and there would be significant political violence as the state’s Blue population fought back and put the state firmly on the Blue side.

New York
Yet again, we have a situation where once politics fails us that the otherwise banal regional differences in a state tears it apart. New York City is far more progressive than the rest of New York State and, depending on how things work out, it’s possible that New York City could become a revolutionary hotbed to the point that is tears itself away from the rest of the state and proclaims itself a Free City. This almost happen during the first Civil War. If nothing else, there will be a serious jiggling of the relationship between NYC and the rest of the state to the point where it aligns itself in any Second Civil War with New Jersey and Connecticut in a way that update New York does not. Or, again, there could be significant political consolidation as Blues from all over the northeast flee to New York and the MAGA-friendly natives of the state flee elsewhere.

Maine
I really don’t know that much about this state other than a vague belief that the northern part of the state is far different than the southern part. It’s very easy to imagine significant consolation in the state one way or another as people flee to it as the rest of the country buckles. The state is big — if sparsely populated — and it’s strategic location near the Canadian border might be enough for it to be the home to large refugee camps.

Texas
Texas would be in an odd situation as the country fell into civil war because its long-term political trend is shifting Blue, but it’s part of the South and a lot of people consider themselves Southern and MAGA. So either it simply buckles into its own intra-civil war or the MAGA cocksucker fucktards push out all the Blues who flee to Blue States nearby. The end result would be a lot of pissed off former Texans who would be of great benefit to the Blue cause.

California
In a sense, the whole fate of the United States rests on what California does. If it simply bolts from the Union, then that significantly hobbles the Blue cause on the ground. California sitting on its hands and become its own nation in the event of a Second Civil War makes it far more likely that either Red states win or there is some sort of half-ass balkanization of the United States. But if California stays and fights, then they could provide not only the necessary economy and population for a Blue state victory — after many, many dead — but also something of a vision for what America would look like after we’re finished bombing ourselves into oblivion.

The Deep South
It’s very easy to imagine at the onset of a Second American Civil War most of the old Confederacy on a political level getting extremely excited and having a massive amount of momentum to either leave the Union outright or support the Republican controlled Congress’ attempt to brazenly steal the election. Then reality would sink in — all of the Southern states have significant African American populations and once politics is no longer a viable method of solving problems then the far more brutal dynamics of realpolitik would kick in. I just can’t imagine millions of African Americans lulzing a return to the Confederacy, no matter how badly the white political establishment of those states may want it. So, even though the South has a lot of people and a big economy, it would be, on a regional basis, too busy fighting a race war to really help the Red cause all that much. If things really grew as radical as I fear they will — probably because WMD are stolen and cities start to get vaporized — it’s the Deep South where you’re most likely to see some WW2 level atrocities as radicalized whites begin to murder blacks en mass.

As for the rest of the states, their ability to pick one side or the other is probably far easier and their biggest problem would be dealing with political refugees.

America Is A ‘Target Rich’ Environment For Stochastic Terrorism

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Things are dark politically right now in the United States. And I find myself growing more and more frustrated with people who don’t acknowledge the increasing risk of stochastic terrorism. Way too many people are complicit in the rise of fascism in the United States by hiding behind the “both sides” rhetorical trope.

But we have to accept that America is on edge. And it’s very possible that at any moment there could, in fact, be something akin to a “popular revolt” on the part of the MAGA New Right. I have long believed that because Republicans are politically ascendant that they wouldn’t start blowing shit up because they had no reason to — they were getting everything they want via politics and the courts.

Then something happened I could not have predicted — the FBI raided Mar-a-Lago. This changes the equation dramatically because it’s an easy-to-understand event that extremists can hang their hat on. They have something that they can frame their use of political violence going forward. It not only makes Trump a martyr, it also makes him the center of attention. There is a change, of course, that Trump could not only become totally politically radioactive and yet because we’re an anocracy not a democracy, he STILL is able to become president again.

But the issue at hand is — could Trump go transactional and demand that his followers start to blow shit up in an effort to intimidate the Federal government into not prosecuting him. Or, it could be that he won’t even go transactional, it could be that we reach a tipping point such that stochastic terrorism is inevitable.

It definitely makes you wonder what the reaction would be on the part of elected Republicans should stochastic terrorism occur. I think we know the answer — they would feign “thoughts and prayers” and then they’ll pivot to saying America has a “mental health crisis.” They will not, of course, address their own implication in what has happened.

Anyway, things are very uncertain right now. We could go either way. America is awash in extreme rhetoric and I don’t know how our political system would be able to handle stochastic terrorism. I think if there was a lot of stochastic terrorism that our political system would collapse into chaos and we would lurch closer and closer to a point where the stark choice of autocracy or civil war will become more and more unavoidable.