Tag: AGI

AGI In Blue & Red

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

While it’s still very speculative, the advent of OpenAI’s chatbot definitely seems to be a ping from an upcoming Singularity. If that is the case, what does that mean for American politics?

Humans are existentially lazy.

As the pandemic showed us, every issue of the day is seen through the prism of partisan politics so the advent of AGI will be no different. It seems to me that the issue of “bias” in AGI will be one of the biggest issues of the 2020s. I say this because people are already fighting over it on Twitter and OpenAI’s chatbot has only been around for a few days.

As such, how will the two sides process the idea of “The Other” in everyday life. My gut tells me that the center-Left will be totally embrace the rise of AGI, while the center-Right will view its presence through the lens of religion. The wild card for the center-Left is, of course, the economic disruption that will be associated with AGI.

If millions of high paying jobs become moot because of AGI, there could be a real knee-jerk reaction against AGI on the part of the Left.

This raises a number of different issues.

One is, it’s possible that that the traditional Blue-Red dichotomy. It could be a real revolution where things are very chaotic and uncertain as we all struggle with the political and economic implications of the AGI revolution. For me, the issue is when all of this bursts open.

Will it be a late 2020s thing, or a late 2024 – early 2025 type of problem? If that’s the case, it would be a perfect storm. If we’re dealing with not just what the final endgame of the Trump problem will be at the same time that we’re dealing with massive economic and political disruption associated with a Singularity…I don’t know what to tell you.

‘Artisanal Media’ In The Age Of NHAs

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

We are still a long ways away from a Non-Human Actor creating a complete movie from scratch, but it’s something we need to start thinking about now instead of waiting until we wake up an almost no art is human produced. Remember, the vast majority of showbiz is middling at best and uses a well established formula.

The day may come when a producer simply feeds that formula into a NHA and — ta da, a movie is spit out.

As long as the art produced is mediocre relative to human standards, it will probably have a great deal of success. It’s possible that movies and TV will be populated by pretty much NFT actors. Or the computerized rendition of existing actors that have been aged or deaged as necessary. I’ve read at least one scifi novel — I think it’s Kiln People by David Brin — that deals with this specific idea.

It could be that NHA-produced art going mainstream will be the biggest change in the entertainment business since the advent of the talkie. Movie stars from just about now will live forever because people won’t realize they’re very old or even dead. Just imagine if Hollywood could keep churning out Indiana Jones movies forever simply using Harrison Ford’s likeness instead of having to recast the character.

All of this raises the issue of what will happen to human generated art in this new era. I suppose after the shock wears off, that there will be parts of the audience who want human created, or artisanal, media. This will probably be a very small segment of the media that is consumed, but it will exist.

It could exist for no other reason than someone physical has to walk the Red Carpet. Though, of course, with advances in robotics in a post-Singularity world, even THAT may not be an issue.

Of course, there is the unknown of if we really are going to reach the Singularity where NHAs are “more human than human.” It could all be a lulz and NHAs won’t really exist as they currently do in my fevered imagination. It could be that AGI will remain just a “tool” and because of various forms of inertia combined with the “uncanny valley” the whole thing will be a lulz.

But, as I said, we all need to really think about what we’re going to do when The Other is producing most of our entertainment and art. And you thought streaming was bad.

Non-Human Actors In Legal Arbitration

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m growing very alarmed at the idea some have proposed on Twitter that we would somehow turn over contract law over to a non-human actor. To me, that’s a very, very dark scenario.

Future humans in an abstract sense?

The moment we begin to believe a non-human actor is the final, objective arbiter of human interaction in a legal sense you’re really opening yourself up to some dystopian shit. The moment we turn over something as weighty as contract law to a NHA, it’s just a quick jaunt for us to all grow so fucking lazy that we just let such a NHA make all of our difficult decisions for us.

I keep thinking of the passengers on the spaceship in the movie WALL-E, only in a more abstract manner. Once it’s acceptable to see a NHA as “objective” then natural human laziness may cause us to repeat the terror of Social Darwinism.

The next thing you know, we’ll be using NHAs to decide who our leaders are. Or to run the economy. Or you name it. As I keep saying on Twitter, why do you need a Terminator when humans apparently are eager to give up their own agency because making decisions is difficult and a lot of work.

Of course, in another way, what I’m suggesting is the fabric of human society may implode because have the population of the earth will want NHAs to make all their decisions for them, while the other half will want to destroy NHAs entirely because…they want to make their own decisions.

But the issue is — we all need to take a deep breath, read a lot of scifi novels and begin to have a frank discussion about what the use of NHAs in everyday life might bring.

‘World War Orwell’ & The Potential Rise of Digital Social Darwinism

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Tech Bros — specifically Marc Andreessen — are growing hysterical at the prospect that AGI will be in some way hampered by the “woke cancel culture mob” that wants our future hard AI overlord to be “woke.”

Now, this hysteria does raise an interesting — and ominous — possibility. We’re so divided that people may see AGI as some sort of objective arbiter to the point that they use whatever answer it gives to a public policy question as the final word on the matter.

As such, extremists on both sides will rush to the AGI, ask it a dumb extremist question and run around saying, in effect, “Well, God agrees with me, so obviously my belief system is the best.”

In short, humans are dumb.

I definitely don’t agree with Andreessen that this is all a setup for “World War Orwell.” I say this because AGI has reached a tipping point and, as such, we’re all just going to have to deal with the consequences. I definitely think there might be an attempt by one side or the other to instill a political agenda into AGI just because humans are dumbass assholes who are into shit like that.

There is a grander endgame to all of this — we may have to solve the Trump Problem one way or another before we get to play with the goodies of AGI. We may have to have a Second American Civil War in the United States and a Third World War globally before we can turn our attention to the consequences of the macro trends of AGI, automation, robotics and the metaverse.

History may not repeat, but it does rhyme.