Tag: A Very American Coup

So, Are We Going To Have A Civil War or Not, Trump?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It’s possible that the events surrounding the Dec 11th decision on the part of SCOTUS will be seen as a turning point in American history. In a sense, we know who America’s enemies are now.

If you were involved in the failed coup of Dec 11th, then we know should things get hot which side you’re going to be on. If we were honest with ourselves — which, to date, we haven’t been — we shouldn’t seat the 126 Congressmen who supported the failed coup.

As it stands, we STILL don’t have the political willpower to do such a thing, even though that’s definitely a debate I’d like to see — I’d like to see that question go to SCOTUS, if nothing else. It would be a way of naming and shaming the coup participants in a somewhat value free manner.

One tragic thing we have to admit to ourselves is all things being equal, we’re probably hurting ourselves long-term by not slicing this particular political boil now. So, in a strictly abstract way, I would suggest that in the name of making a more perfect Union, we need to call the secessionists bluff. Draw this issue to a tipping point and let the chips fall where they may.

We may have dodged a bullet.

Blue States have bigger economies, more population in more concentration and far better educated people. None dare call it treason — the center will not hold because it can happen here, to use a few political clichés in one sentence.

And, yet, we’re not there yet. (Which is a good thing.)

It’s very possible we’re going to punt this problem down the road and the 126 Congressmen and 19 State governments will continue to be traitors from within in. They will do everything in their power to destroy the United States because they don’t see anyone but Trump as their rightful ruler. Given that I’m a man of peace and ideas, that’s a far better option that the alternative of a hot civil war.

I will note that if Trump was, in any way, an actual political genius, he would strike NOW, while he was still president to destroy the country. He would still “legally” be president and, as such, the U.S. Military would likely follow his orders — as long as they had a thin veneer of legality to them.

Once he’s out of office, any shenanigans he did would evoke the deep historical echo of the Civil War and, as such, would fit a ready media narrative for the incoming Biden Administration –roll up your sleeves, folks, we defeated secession once, we can defeat it again.

But Trump is such a ding-dong, he’s more likely to self-own in a pretty massive fashion than think up some clever way to be in power to put down the rebellion of center-Left people caused by his own doings. Or, put another way, he’s more likely to simply go insane — or start a war with the DPRK / Iran — than he is to have any sort of clear-cut path to using his existing power to stay in control of the government.

In fact, that’s probably be my biggest mistake when gaming out ding-dong’s possible actions — he’s just an empty suit. That’s it. He’s nothing more than an avatar for the rot and rage that exists in the modern American political system. He’s a very lazy opportunist.

So, I can predict he’s going to go after Electors personally…and then he doesn’t. Or any number of different things he might do to destroy the United States…when he’s just a ding-dong. An useful idiot to the Russians. He’s a value free historical figure. At least to date.

Therefore, if American finally collapses, in a sense we will do it to ourselves. Trump will just be the guy blamed for it.

Eve Of Destruction


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

This is it, guys. Something between now and January 20th is going to happen that brings the United States to its knees. We’ve crossed the Rubicon. No going back.

It’s just a matter of what it is.

I can’t predict the future, so there’s about a 10% chance we punt this problem down the road. But I don’t see that happening. A sizable portion of the population has a blind rage against liberals and have such absolute fidelity to the Dear Leader they would rather destroy the country they claim to love than brook the possibility of him leaving office.

So, we’re on the eve of destruction. There’s going to be a civil war / revolution in the context World War 3 happening as a number of regional conflicts explode into hot conflict — with nuclear wepons.

And any civil war in the United States is going to be horrific. Just off the top of my head, I could see 10 to 30 million die in the United States civil war because of the frequent use of WMD that would be seized by both sides. Then I would estimate close to 1 billion might die outside the United States as Pakistan – India, China – India, DPRK – ROK, China – ROC, Israel – Iran, Russia – Ukraine all go after each other at the same time.

Of note — no way Trump stays in power beyond serving the purpose of his Russian handles — we see you Gen Mike Flynn! –of starting the civil war. He’s just too big a ding-dong to lead the Red States into a civil war. Someone like Tom Cotton or Mike Pompeo would stage a coup against HIM and then things grow extremely violent and radical. Pompeo, in particular might simply make Trump a figure head so he can do a rain dance every morning in hopes of bringing Jesus back. (Pompeo thinks Trump is the anti-Christ and, as such, if the “Tribulation” happens, Jesus is SURE to come back, right, Mike?)

But America will be made great again, I guess? Liberals will be owned>?

Second American Civil War: Blue State War Aims & Military Victory Strategy


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

While I’m not the political genius that Maggie Haberman believes Trump to be, it’s very, very, very easy for me to not only come up with Blue State civil war aims, but to lay out how they could win such a civil war.

First, Blue State war aims.

If I had any say in such things — which I never will, but work with me — I would say Blue State war aims would be a Renew American Covenant. If you work on the assumption that Lincoln renewed the American Covenant by turning the Civil War into a war of liberation, then you could say that the Blue State war aims would be to bring the liberal democracy prosperity of California to the entire United States.

Or, put another way, if you could keep California engaged with the dream of a more perfect Union, then you could get them to use their economic might and population size as the engine that would re-unite the States under a Renewed American Covenant. Unfortunately, this is something of a big “if.” California could just wash its hands of the Union and enjoy its status as a free country.

But I’m too much of a Neo-Lincolnist. I want to believe that California would serve the same purpose that states like New York and Pennsylvania did in the original civil war. So, that’s a war aim — make America great again by using California as model for what you want the Union to look like once you win any very tragic — and dumb — civil war.

Now to how Blue States would win any such civil war. If you can just keep California in the Union, they could easily blitzkrieg across the rather empty mountain and Great Plains states and link up with Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan. They would, in turn link up with Illinois and the Blue States of the Northeast. Then you do a pincer movement east and south. And, remember, if you’re using the Califnornia model of progressive politics, it’s easy to imagine Blue States in some way tapping into a supply of soldiers that Red States never would — women.

I would also promise African Americans in the South some sort of post-war reoperations for slavery if they simply make life hell for the Neo-Confederates of the South. That’s a pretty good bargain and would fix a lot of problems with systemic racism after any dumb, avoidable and tragic Second American Civil War.

But let me be clear — this is just a back of the envelope type situation. Of course MAGA would likely, in desperation, seize WMD in parts of the country they controlled and bomb — and gas — us all to the stone age in desperation. And they probably might simply start murdering African Americans like Nazis given any type excuse.

AND, you would have to factor in WW3 would be taking place across the globe as the United States went through a second civil war. So, the DPRK might vaporize a few cities in the United States out of spite while we were busy killing each other over “cancel culture.”

All I gotta say is — don’t have a civil war.

Of Deep State Radio’s ‘From Stab In The Back To Stop The Steal’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I listened to some of my favorite podcast, Deep State Radio today and they proposed that essentially the “Stop The Steal” movement is a precursor a Germany post-World War 1 “Stab in the Back” type movement in the United States.

I totally agree with that assessment but for one thing — they’re assuming we’re going to make it through the next few weeks without the whole country imploding. If we manage to punt this crisis down the road a few years, that’s probably our best case scenario.

This crisis is going to go septic now, not later. As one of the people on Deep State Radio said, we’re one Trump tweet away from significant political violence in the United States. And, as I’ve written before, Trump is playing a very dangerous expectations game right now. So much so as to be seditious unto itself.

As such, it seems to me that Americans collectively have crossed the Rubicon. There’s going to be a second American Civil War very, very soon. Like NOW. If it doesn’t happen it will be amazing. It’s like America is holding its breath to see if it will be a rouge SCOTUS ruling, a transactional Trump tweet, a massive truckbomb in NYC or LA or some major political figured murdered in cold blood that does the trick.

It definitely seems as though the Republican Party has been consumed by its most extreme elements. And, yet, I don’t even understand what their war aims are. There doesn’t seem to be any particular point to MAGA wanting a civil war other than…they want to keep Trump president? And as I keep saying, such a dumb (in real terms) war aim only gets you so far.

Blue States have bigger economies, bigger populations and better educated people. So, in a sense, what MAGA SHOULD want is simply the opportunity to leave the Union peacefully. A simple division of the country between Blue and Red. And, yet, that doesn’t seem to be their war aim right now. Replace “whities” with “liberals” in this SNL sketch and that seems to be the MAGA civil war aim going into it.

They have no war aim because they haven’t really given it much thought — it’s just a violent political grunt.

So, at this point, we only escape a shooting war in the United States if we’re lucky. All the conditions are there for an rapid escalation to the point where states begin to secede no matter what happens. And then the issue rests with California — will they stay and fight to re-unite the country or will the bounce and simply enjoy their new status as an independent country.

Then you start to wonder about Texas and Florida. And the exact status of New York City. If there was significant Balkanization in the United States, I could see NYC becoming a Free State of some sort.

New York City, 2020

Remember, I can come up with all the liberal-progressive Turner Diaries I want, in the end there would be no narrative or value to such a thing. It could be in the end it won’t be an “alls well that ends well” story like the Civil War, but, well, just the Turner Diaries or The Hunger Games or The Handmaid’s Tale.

The key thing to remember, of course, is this clusterfuck wouldn’t happen in a vacuum — World War 3 would happen if the United States imploded. So, that’s something to think about going forward.

Real Talk About A Second American Civil War


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

This is probably how The Guns of August felt in 1914. Europe was nearly giddy at the prospect of war. So, too, are a lot of people — apparently a lot of them in the South — so giddy at the abstract concept of a Second American Civil War that they are completely oblivious to what they’re proposing.

I keep getting pings from the Usual Suspect of former CSA states — South Carolina and Alabama — from people obviously excited at the idea of a civil war or some sort of right-wing revolution. It’s surreal and disturbing that anyone would WANT America to buckle into civil war.

For Right Wing people to hate liberal so much that they would be willing to actually destroy the country they claim to love so much in their bloodlust against them….dumb and extremely callous.

But here we are.

So, what’s going on is while we all fear that SCOTUS could rule in Trump’s favor with this dumb and dangerous Texas case, the actual case itself is something of a place holder. What’s really going on is we’re all nervous Something Bad is going to happen that forces the issue of civil war / revolution.

Or, put another way — MAGA wants to murder liberals for political reasons and they just haven’t summoned up the courage to put their thoughts into practice. It definitely FEELS as though This Is IT. Something Bad is going to happen between now and, say, no later than April 2021 that causes the country to implode, divide and get extremely violent.

America, 2020.

The issue for me is, given that MAGA apparently has no war aims going into any such hypothetical civil war other than “murder liberals” and you have the setup for Red States to lose any civil war or revolution they might be looking forward to. Yes, MAGA would have first-mover advantage and a lot more leadership (for no other reason than the entire Republican Party is on board with destroying the country), but if a civil war actually happened, things would likely move very, very fast.

Blue State leaders would begin to rise the occasion pretty quick. I’m a big believer that the average person has it within them to rise the occasion should it happen — but they need the opportunity. (Trump is the exception that proves the rule.)

So, it would not take too many months of MAGA running around blowing shit up and killing people before a pretty huge swatch of non-MAGA people (many of them conservative) would begin to plot a counter attack. And that, in itself, is something we would have to get used to — no one under about 80 remembers World War 2 when there would battles won and lost, but ultimate the war itself was won.

As such, the first year or so of a Second American Civil War would be extremely chaotic and bloody as things began to sort themselves out. (Remember the moment any Second American Civil War starts, World War 3 starts, too, and it’s very easy to imagine the DPRK nuking a United States distracted by its own implosion.)

But, gradually, the economic, population and educational advantages of Blue States would show themselves and Red States would be thrown on the backfoot. Things would grow very radical for both sides and I could see Red States doing some pretty massive atrocities against, say, African American in the South — or even Jews for that matter.

Or, put another way, as things grew worse for the Neo-CSA, its government might grow more radical and Nazi-like. A race war might erupt in the South — especially if, say, Blue States told African Americans that if they rose up they would get Reparations for slavery after Blue States won the civil war.

The thing any shithead cocksucker who is excited about a Second American Civil War needs to be told is — it would be a massive, historic and global tragedy that would result in the deaths of potentially 100s of millions via various limited nuclear exchanges both domestic and internationally. It would be a tragedy that we would only give value and a narrative after the fact.

Think about that.

It Just FEELS Like We’re On The Cusp of A Second American Civil War


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

America is on the brink. It just feels like we’ve reached the end of a macro cycle. That this is it. No more punting severe political problems down the road. No more talk. No more finger pointing about the culture wars.

We’re about to have a war war.

I honestly can’t give you any metric as to why this is the case. But it’s as if everyone suddenly realized that this Union can’t be saved. The Far Right has completely consumed the Republican Party and now it’s just a waiting game for SCOTUS to throw the election to Trump. Or an Elector to get murdered. Or something, anything, that pushes us past the point of no return.

It could be even that even after we all think we’ve dodged a bullet, something happens out of the blue — like a war between Iran and Israel or the DPRK and ROK — that pushes us into civil war because Trump is actively and I mean ACTIVELY being seditious.

He seems to think him saying in power using any means necessary and, as such, destroying the United States is somehow in his, personal, best interest. Why that might be the case is rather curious. Sounds like he’s a useful stooge to the Russians to me.

But what do I know, I’m not Maggie Haberman.

Trump’s Dangerous Game of Political Expectations


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As I’ve said before, the United States is collectively boxing itself into a mental state where there HAS to be a civil war. It’s as if we’ve given up with politics at last. MAGA wants to kill liberals and liberals have resigned themselves to significant political violence.

Right now, Trump is doing everything in his power to make his true believers think he can still win. And, in a sense, he can — all he needs is one of his various asymmetrical attacks to work and he “doesn’t lose.”

But Trump being Trump, there’s zero strategic thought involved. He just doesn’t want to lose. If he was some sort of brilliant pol, he would take the L and wait until 2024 to make his comeback.

Yet Trump is a vicious ding-dong and so here we are.

The question is — what happens once it becomes clear that Trump isn’t going to win? Will MAGA simply freak out and start blowing shit up and murdering people? That’s kind of the question of the day right now. And if, say, the Texaas case at SCOTUS now goes Trump’s way, then it will be the other side that starts blowing shit up. I’ll be amazed if a honest-to-God civil war doesn’t erupt in the United States between now and Jan. 20th.

Trump is actively trying to destroy the United States because he wants to stay in power forever. So, the conditions are there now for that to happen.

If the United States descends into civil war / revolution then WW3 happens pretty quickly afterwards and millions die.

So, yeah, is America great again?

‘Cancel Culture,’ Incels & A Second American Civil War


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It boggles my mind that anyone would actually want a civil war in the United States. In fact, if a civil war as bad as I fear might happen, happened here in the United States, it would be compared to the French Revolution in regards to a mysterious tragedy.

Using almost every metric but one, the United States is a rock solid country that from the outside you would never think was beginning to implode. But, here we are. The problem with the United States right now is almost entirety political. It seems to me that if you talk to your average conservative-but-not-MAGA person, if a civil war did happen it would be in large part to how conservatives perceive cancel culture.

Conservatives are enraged by cancel culture because of their abstract fear that simply by being conservative, they risking having their life ruined. That cancel culture doesn’t even really exist outside of some #MeToo monsters who definitely deserved it, is lost on them.

But your typical conservative can, off the top of their head, give you a half a dozen “examples” of people they believe were just minding their own business being conservative and then had everything taken from them for just being political “unwoke.” That they think this is pretty much the engine of fear and rage that has gotten us to this point.

The other big problem that has eaten away at America’s foundations is white, blue collar men without a college education can’t get laid anymore. They can’t afford to get married and start a family. For them, the American Dream is long dead.

So, we got MAGA.

Now, there’s a third aspect to our impending doom — Donald J. Fucking Trump.

He’s America’s anti-Gorbachev, but with similar results in that he’s going to probably destroy the country he was elected to lead.

Through a combination of being a criminal ding-dong and a regular old traitor, Trump is apparently hell bent on forcing us into political violence. There’s no ready answer.

Just be ready for anything, I guess. If I’m forced to leave my home because of my politics, I’m heading north to NYC. That seems my best bet to make a difference if it comes to that.

There Will Be Blood Because Trump Is Not A Political Genius


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As I have often mentioned, Romans hated kings. They REALLY hated kings. So, they never had a monarch. They had plenty of Emperors, but no Kings after the first few mythical ones.

So, for 240 odd years, Americans have had a lot of pride in living in a free country with the peaceful transfer of power via a Constitution. And, now, because of a very lazy ding-dong, we’re careening towards American self-perception being rattled in a very brazen, very disturbing fashion.

Republicans are so caught up in their personality death cult, that they are completely oblivious to strategic implications of Trump’s coup. If it’s successful there will be blood, as they say.

And I say this as a man of peace and ideas.

I hate violence of any sort. I hate guns. I hate conflict. I just want to live in a liberal democracy.

Anyway, the point is — if Trump was some sort of fucking political genius like The New York Times’ Maggie Haberman would have us believe, then he would have struck before the press called the election.

Now, if he somehow magically wins at SCOTUS — or scares the shit out of Electors so they vote for him — there will be blood. Real people with real lives, families and careers are going to get hurt.

So, in a sense, it’s because of Trump being a huge old ding-dong that we’re in this situation to begin with. If Trump really was playing 8-dimensional chess he would be smooth enough to do all of this without the risk of, well, the entire nation convulsing and descending into anarchy with a lot of guns and potentially WMD.

But what do I know. Maggie Haberman is the star reporter, not me.

Coup State Of Play — Rudy Strikes Back


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


I hate being right. Especially about shit like this. But Rudy has struck again with his Stormy Daniels Disinformation Playbook. While Twitter liberals were gloating about his farting and melting, Rudy has keep this bullshit in the public eye.

So, here we are.

Rudy has pretty much boxed SCOTUS into just the corner he wanted to.

But, not quite. He’s boxed SCOTUS into a corner in the eyes of 48% of the population. Not so much for 52%. And now Trump is putting all his chips on SCOTUS for them to overturn the election in his favor.

This is exactly — EXACTLY — what I’ve been ranting about for months and months now. All the conditions are there for Trump, Rudy and his merry band of idiots to “catch the car.” ‘

It would be the biggest event in American history since 9/11. It would be, as I have often called it, a “political 9/11.”

We would all walk around in a daze for a few hours at the implications that an actual fucking coup took place in the United States. The reason why it seems clear that a revolution / civil war would happen at that point is the States is so divided that while half the electorate was spooging its pants at the news, the other half would start protesting, rioting and saying, “THIS WILL NOT STAND.”

Shit would get lit pretty quick.

The Storming of Trump Tower, Winter 2020.

And once Trump had his thin veneer of legality to hide behind, he would use the Insurrection Act to stay in power as long as he liked. Or, put another way, he would strangle the Constitution right in front of us all with even realizing what he had done.

As I have written repeatedly, what would probably happen is initially is there would be rolling political violence such that Blue people in Red States and Red people in Blue States would flee, making the difference in the two sides more clear. This would lead to radicalization.

It’s even possible that both the Far Right and the Far Left would size power here and there on a state and local level and form Revolutionary governments. I could see this happening in, say, New York City. And definitely in some parts of my state of Virginia.

It’s even possible that the U.S. Military itself could implode as things progressed. Then you have the potential for Balkanization in among the States and pretty much World War 3 happening around the world as suddenly the United States isn’t there to stop Iran from bombing Israel or the DPRK from bombing South Korea.

And don’t get me started about the DPRK deciding to strike the US homeland itself just out of spite.

Anyway, we have to take this seriously. We’ve entered the valley of the shadow of death.

What happens next is anyone’s guess.