Tag: A Very American Coup

Four Days That May Shake The World


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As I keep saying, I’m always wrong. Always. I make all these wild predictions and then…nothing. But the following is, if nothing else, entertaining in its own dark, disturbing manner. It’s possible that Jan 3rd to January 6th may be some of the most eventful in American history.

Here’s why:

The one year anniversary of the assassination of Iranian military leader Qasem Soleimani is on January 3rd. It’s easy to imagine Iran striking either in the Middle East or the American homeland in retaliation. Depending on what exactly occurred, that, in itself, could be Trump’s “Reichstag Fire” that makes him a wartime president.

Trump is already extremely unhinged right now, and it’s easy to see him wagging the dog right before Congress is set to certify the Electoral College vote on January 6th.

If you throw in Proud Boys in DC flipping out and causing a lot of mayhem in DC on or about January 6th as well, that’s the excuse Trump might need to invoke the Insurrection Act in DC. Additionally, as all of this chaos is going on, Pence might REALLY take things to the next level and nullify the certification vote by not doing him job.

That would really destabilize the country and…then…I don’t know. There are some basic elements of a successful coup that Trump hasn’t done. He hasn’t done his autocratic homework, if you will. So, in a sense, he’s thrashing about in desperation, making everyone else’s life hell because he’s not an autocrat at all, but a deranged ding-dong.

Ugh.

As such, while in the abstract it gives the Far Right a boner to think about how they can overturn the results of the election this way, the moment they actually do anything…it definitely seems everything will fall apart. For no other reason than Trump isn’t even an autocrat, but just a very lucky ding-dong. We’re an autocracy without an autocrat. We need to marinate in our pre-fascist juices for about one more election cycle before we finally descend into a Russian-style managed democracy.

But there’s one thing to keep in mind — Trump is no longer thinking in political terms, but rather strictly in terms of self-preservation. So it’s possible Trump is so deranged that he might force the issue of some sort of coup well before we’re ready and not even the rotting rage found within our political system will be enough to save him.

He may so enrage the 60% of the electorate who don’t support MAGA that all the people who have totally invested in Trump’s rise to power over the last five years might, at last, find him a lability and cut him loose. But what’s more likely to happen is we’re just going to punt all these problems down the road one election cycle and someone like Tom Cotton or Josh Hawley or Mike Pompeo will be the one to finally strangle traditional American democracy.

Trump is not an autocrat.

It’s a very curious situation we’re in for the next few days. And, really, if we make it past January 6th, that’s just the end of the beginning of this shitshow. It’s possible that once Trump doesn’t have ANY hope of overturning the election, he just explodes mentally and things grow extremely dire. So dire, in fact, that we might have some sort of snap impeachment and conviction of Trump, but not without him extracting one last pound of political flesh from the nation on his way out the door.

My fear, of course, is things grow really, really dark. That Trump goes the literal Hitler-in-the-bunker route. I hate to even think about the implications of that, but if we were honest with ourselves, it’s something we would begin to game out.

The Conditions Exist For A Severe Political Crisis


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

No one listens to me and they probably shouldn’t. But I would like to note that it’s self-evident that the most powerful country in the world is careening towards an unprecedented political crisis.

It’s going to be abrupt, it’s going to be severe and it’s going to scare the shit out of everyone.

Now, let’s break things down a little bit. A number of macro trends are all coming to a head at the same time and it’s only a matter of if they come crashing down on us now or in, say, the 2024 timeframe. Given that it’s self-evident that Trump has totally lost his fucking mind and, is, as such goading otherwise sane people to do bonkers things, it definitely seem as though our “political 9/11” is going to happen NOW, not later.

A huge amount of what’s going on doesn’t make any sense politically and that’s because the person who is forcing this issue isn’t sane — Trump is thinking now not about about his political future but cold, hard self-preservation. So, he’s willing to take risks and do things that could blow up in his face first because he’s not thinking clearly and two he doesn’t care — he just wants to stay in power so he doesn’t risk going to prison. You could also speculate he’s a fucking traitor and he’s doing all of this at the behest of Putin, but lulz, nothing matters.

It’s easy to imagine something like this happening in the next few days — there’s a major domestic terror attack on the part of Iranians for the assassination of Soleimani on January 3rd. This, in turn, gives Trump the opportunity to bomb the hell out of Iran and, as a “war president” take “total control.”

It’s easy to imagine a situation that in the context of the Proud Boys causing problems in D.C. on January 6th just a Congress is meeting to certify the vote, Trump invokes the Insurrection Act thinking it’s some sort of fascist panacea (it’s not) and all his problems will go away.

Now, this is when Trump’s tenuous connection to reality would smash up against some pretty cold, hard facts. The U. S. Military isn’t going to follow an illegal order. And even though I consider SCOTUS controlled by a bunch of MAGA hacks, it’s a dubious supposition to imagine them throwing their lot entirely with a tyrant when he needed them in such a massive Constitutional crisis.

But we have to be clear — the conditions are there, at least, for not only rolling political violence between January 3 and January 20th (and beyond) but Trump, having completely fucking lost his mind, pushing the Constitution to its limit and scaring the shit out of all of us when he starts to grow not only transactional on Twitter, but extremely passive aggressive.

Let me be clear — I can’t predict the future. I’m just talking about the conditions for a severe political crisis. I’m almost always wrong and it could be that this whole thing is going to — thankfully — be a dud. But when you have someone as crazy as Trump feeling like a caged rat for a few weeks with zero accountability, anything and I mean ANYTHING is possible.

A Surreal — And Ironic — Moment In American History


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Two different things are happening at the same time right now. On one hand, we are an autocracy without an autocrat. At the same time, the last bit of the Trump Era narrative has yet to be told — does Trump do something at the very end that changes the context of the whole thing?

I don’t think people appreciate how the only thing stopping the United States from being an autocracy is the absence of an autocrat to do anything about it. Yes, Trump broke the seal on autocracy, but he, himself, can’t — to date — actually pull of an autocracy.

The issue for me is — is it possible he could entice Republicans to be seditious, attempt a coup — then fail? There are a number of scenarios I could map out where that very thing happens. But as I keep saying, it wouldn’t be some sort of liberal fever dream. It would really, really suck and probably involve Trump completely losing his mind and scaring the shit out of not just the United States, but the entire world.

It would happen very abruptly and be looked back upon as something of a “political 9/11.”

But, really, I’m wrong so much that all of this could be a very big dud, for the better. We’ll just drift into the Biden Era and be in political neutral until Biden gets impeached the moment the House flips.

The Narrative For A Trump Coup Attempt


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

A Twitter thread by Bill Kristol finally gives me a handle on what Trump might do between now and, say, January 7th. It goes something like this.

The anniversary of the Soleimani assassination is Jan 3rd. It’s easy to imagine a situation where there’s some significant attack against Israeli and American interests in the Middle-East and Trump uses that to escalate things on the eve of the January 6th vote by Congress to certify the vote. That makes Trump a “war president.”

Next, the Proud Boys in D.C. for the Congressional certification freak the fuck out and start blowing shit up to the extent necessary to give Trump the excuse to use the Insurrection Act in D.C. In that context, he does something extra-political or extra-legal by pretty much just waving his hands about the details and doing something so he “wins” the election when Congress discusses the issue.

This would be a massive clusterfuck and I honestly don’t see how Trump would be successful. But such a sequence of events could, in itself, be the “political 9/11” I’ve been worried about and lead to a secession crisis and subsequent civil war.

It’s Almost Inevitable At This Point That Trump Pardons Himself


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

There’s a very specific reason why I believe Trump is going to pardon himself at some point before January 20th — the conversations on the codeword classified servers.

Trump is such a fucking idiot — an a paranoid one at that — that it’s easy to imagine a situation where he panics at the thought of anyone not beholden to him seeing whatever it is he told Putin — and others — on those transcripts. So just before he legally leaves office — on way or another — he pardons himself knowing Pence is unlikely to do it for him.

Now, Trump pardoning himself will be a curious situation. In hindsight, there is some merit to the MAGA people who saw my fears about Trump as entirely abstract. Outside of a few real dick moves, Trump hasn’t really a lot of the tyrannical things I — and people like me — have feared. He’s just a big old ding-dong, not an autocrat.

But for him to pardon himself would be next level. It would be something concrete that people like me could point to and say, “That’s the mark of an autocrat.”

I’m well aware that even that would be a lulz in real terms, given that Trump’s about to leave office. But, here’s the rub — it’s still very possible that Trump could go grow so fucking deranged post January 6th that he completely changes the context of his era in the closing days of it.

If Trump pulled something extra-legal or extra-political — like pardoning himself (to name just one thing) then the very people who have poo-pooed the anger of people like myself when it comes to Trump will have to at least confront that he’s done something difficult — but not impossible — to defend.

And, really, if you think about it — Trump pardoning himself is not even as bad as it could get if he really fucking flipped out. I still think Trump might start a war out of the blue against Iran (or the DPRK) or figure out a way to frogwalk Joe Biden (or Obama!) in his final days.

But, really, who knows when it comes to Trump at this point. Anything is possible.

Are We Going To Have A Civil War?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Short answer: No, probably not right now.
Long Answer: Yes, probably in a few years. Let me explain.

There’s one major issue whenever you try to game out a Second American Civil War and that’s Trump. On one hand, Trump has done everything in his power to destabilize the United States the last five years.

On the other hand — he’s just a ding-dong.

What I mean by that is, he was handed everything necessary to destroy the United States in a one-two punch…and he went golfing. So, for the time being, we’re an autocracy without an autocrat. If Trump really was some sort of American Putin, he would have thought six or seven steps in advance and goaded the Blue States into leaving the Union at some point, so he could destroy them and remake them in his own MAGA image.

But, to date, he’s not do anything like that.

Yet, this has not stopped a lot of people on both the Left and the Right to begin talking outloud about some sort of civil war. On the Right, it seems to be them grasping at abstract straws in desperation. They feel that because of cancel culture and various other faux controversies that they REALLY HATE liberals, so a civil war is the worst thing they can think up in that line of thought. But, to date, their rage against “libtards” has been exclusively been abstract. They just hate liberals, but don’t really have any concrete, specific things they are going to do to them in the real world.

So, for the time being, because we’re an autocracy without an autocrat, we’re going to be in a very surreal situation where all the conditions are there for a civil war of some sort…and nothing happens. We will drift for about two years then gradually things will reach a crescendo around 2023 – 2025 and some sort of secession crisis will happen and that will be that.

It seems as though because Trump is NOT the guy from The Apprentice in real life, that we’re going to punt this particular problem down the road a few years.

And, yet.

This is Trump we’re talking about.

So, it’s within the realm of possibility that starting around January 6th , Trump’s sense of self-preservation will grow so much stronger than any political considerations that he will attempt something extra-political or extra-legal and that, in itself, will be such a massive clusterfuck that Trump will destroy himself politically and redefine the entire Trump Era.

That, in itself, will punt America’s lurch into autocracy down the road not just one presidential cycle, but a generation. Just about then, of course, the youngest of the Baby Boomers will be dying off at last and so, who knows. But remember, this is not going to be some sort of liberal fever dream — for this to happen, it would need to be a “political 9/11” whereby Trump scares the shit out of all of us and takes a political pound of flesh.

Anyway. I can’t predict the future.

Trump Is Not Well


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I have long been ranting about the implications of Trump being a deranged ding-dong, but we’ve reached next-level crisis because after January 6th, Trump isn’t going to have any political or legal options left. So, it’s very possible he’ll explode, instead of implode mentally.

If he were to implode mentally, then we probably wouldn’t know. He just would be catatonic in the White House and we just wouldn’t see him for a few weeks until he mysteriously popped up a few months from now tan, ready and rested. So, it’s very possible Trump will explode — he may very well go completely insane after Congress meets on January 6th.

Did Stephen King predict our fate?

My fear is, of course, that Trump will finally snap but we won’t realize what’s going on at first because he’s been acting crazy for so long that his sudden decent into crazyland will at first be just a matter of degree. But I think one way we will really begin to know Trump has snapped is a combination of him going transactional on Twitter and him growing extremely passive-aggressive there as well.

He’ll not only start to tell MAGA to do things for him in the real world, he’ll also start whining about how liberals “hate him and want him to kill himself” or even out of the blue talk about how he controls our nuclear arsenal. It will be talk like this that might — might — finally scare the shit out of Republicans enough that they decide to do something about it.

But, alas, I think even then, they’re going to sit on their hands. Trump would really, REALLY do something completely insane for Republicans to do anything at this late date in his administration. The only thing I can think of is Trump somehow goes way out of his way and starts a war with the DPRK which involves a limited nuclear exchange.

Then, maybe, #MoscowMitch might do something about Trump.

Otherwise, lulz, nothing matters.

Or, put another way, Trump has his fate — and the fate of humanity — in his hands for the time being and there’s nothing we can do about it.

The Trump Era Can Be Value Free If Trump Just Behaves Himself


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Because Republicans have no shame, all Trump has to do to be in a decent position to make a come back in 2024 is simply behave. He just has to still keep political considerations in mind between now and January 20th. If he can just do that, he probably will remain a Republican Party king maker for at least a decade to come.

Yet, as we know, Trump is a willful child.

So, it’s fairly possible that Trump is going to attempt something extra-political or extra-legal in a desperate attempt to stay in office. He could do something so bad that for a bright, shining moment a lot of America will, at last, be on the same page about Trump: he’s gotta go.

I honestly don’t know what exactly he might do. But one thing is clear — it’s not like Trump has hidden his slide into insanity. He’s been quite open about it. He’s bonkers and there’s a decent chance that he’ll do something in the last few days (hours?) of his administration that redefines the whole five year experiment in political terror.

What, exactly, it might be, I don’t know.

But whatever it is, he will be doing it from a position of weakness. And there’s still a decent chance that after January 6th, he won’t have any hope anymore and he’ll finally flip the fuck out in a pretty massive fashion. He could grow extremely passive aggressive on Twitter. Or he could grow transactional.

Anything’s possible when someone’s lost their mind.

I guess only time will tell.

The Great Irony Of When #MoscowMitch Plays ‘Barry Goldwater In August 1974’ On January 20th, 2021


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

If you believe as I do that Trump is going to self-own in some spectator fashion in the final days of his administration, then it’s at least possible that the thing we’ve all hoped would happen one day, #MoscowMitch takes a delegation of senior Republicans to the White House and tells Trump “he’s gotta go,” may happen at the absolute very last moment.

It would be a surreal irony if after five years of terrorizing America, Trump’s entire political legacy is defined by a few days in early 2021. I struggle to imagine a situation where Trump is actually able to successfully pull of a coup. He’s just not done the hard autocratic prep work necessary for it to happen. If he does attempt a coup, he won’t have even a thin veneer of legality to cling to. I guess it’s at least POSSIBLE some sort of surreal event might happen January 6th, but it would be done in the broader context of something extra-political or extra-legal having had happened as well.

So, it’s pretty easy to imagine Trump is hold up in the White House the evening of January 20th, 2021 and it is then, at last, that #MoscowMitch plays Barry Goldwater in August 1974 and attempts to negotiate Trump physically leaving the White House.

If Trump really does refuse to physically leave the White House, it would be the seminal event of his era. Everything that happened before would be framed relative to those fateful hours between when Biden was sworn in and when we finally managed to get Trump to leave the Oval Office. What would have otherwise been a value free — if turbulent — few years in our nation’s history would suddenly be something of 9/11-sized cultural significance.

Why A Trump Coup Attempt At This Point Would Be Quixotic


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

There’s a lot of talk about Trump staging a coup these days, so let’s go through different scenarios to see how successful they might be.

January 6th
This is yet another day in the inevitable march towards Biden becoming president that MAGA shithead cocksuckers think they can somehow magically prevent Biden from ever becoming president. There are a series of things Trump could do at this point. MAGA people in Congress will challenge the Electoral vote and obviously delay things for a few hours — maybe even 24 hours if they are big enough assholes. And there are plenty of really dark scenarios whereby Pence doesn’t do his job, or there’s violence in Congress itself or Trump goes transactional on Twitter as all of this is happening. But the fact remains — Trump has not done any prep work to pull of a successful coup. There were a multitude of autocratic things Trump COULD have done over the last four years so he was able to successful steal a second term…and he didn’t do any of them. So, even under the most favorable of coup conditions…all Trump does is just destroy himself politically and damage the MAGA movement for a few years.

Wag The Dog
Under this scenario, Trump effectively starts WW3, thinking he can pull a Constitutional fast one one us — while we’re distracted by a war with Iran or the DPRK (or both) he simply never leaves office. This is just silly. Of all the civil society institutions in the United States, I have the most faith in our military to Do The Right Thing when the time comes. Even if WW3 starts, when January 20th comes around, Trump is no longer POTUS. The US. Military was able to wage a massive, global two front war, I think they can handle both waging WW3 and getting rid of an asshole POTUS. But given how stupid Trump is, I can definitely see why he might think he could pull such a thing off.

Downfall
In this scenario, Trump loses his fucking mind (probably at some point after January 6th) and really leans into going transactional on Twitter. He tells his MAGA shithead cocksucker followers to blow shit up or attempt to secede from the Union or whatever in a last ditch effort to stay in power no matter what. He might even — gulp — go so far as to blackmail the United States because he still has control over our nuclear arsenal. Or he might grow really fucking passive aggressive on Twitter, suggesting “liberals want him to kill himself” or some such bullshit. But in the end, this, too, would be very dumb.

The key thing we have to appricate is at this point, Trump staging a coup would be more a symptom of him being bonkers than any sort of actual autocratic ability. So, in the end, he will probably scare the shit out of us all in some way and pretty much just destroy himself on his way out the door.