Tag: A Very American Coup

A Second American Civil War May Be Inevitable


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Everything seems pretty calm right now, but for one thing — we don’t offically know who won. It’s possible that the moment we do know who won, two things will happen at the same instant — half the country will freak out with joy and half the country will freak out in rage.

Those two things happening at the same time do not make for a stable country.

And, what’s worse, it’s easy to imagine something pretty unexpected — a coordinated series of explosions across the country by far Right groups. I could even see the far Right’s first strike being a series of important assassinations of Democratic leaders. Anything they could do to push the particular situation out of the realm of politics and into simple violence.

If they did such a thing, it’s possible the next step would be two fold. One, a mob of angry New Yorkers might “take” Trump Tower (and Fox News.) Two, the political violence on the ground might grow so significant that we would see a consolidation of sides as there was a rush of domestic political refugees.

This doesn’t even begin to factor in the possibility of some sort of coup on the part of TrumpBarr. There are a wide range of options for TrumpBarr on that front. One of them being TrumpBarr uses any violence — even violence on the part of their supporters — to invoke the Insurrection Act to take “total control.” Trump is a moronic coward, but his supporters may decide to press the issue and he will see this as an opportunity.

I’m definitely not advocating any of this, but I don’t think we appricate the absolute devotion to The Dear Leader that MAGA-Qanon people have and the passions that the election has stirred up.

Maybe I’m wrong. I hope I’m wrong — I often am.

It’s just something to think about going forward.

The Future Of Hollywood in Autocratic America


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

America is now an autocracy. It’s obvious that the Trumplandia infection gone septic. Because of white identity politics, about 50% of the population is so afraid of being “canceled” — or are seriously greedy fucks – that they would rather end 240 years of liberal democracy than risk giving away power to the browning of America or women with sexual agency.

But, is becoming a common refrain for me, none of this is going to happen in a vacuum. As TrumpBarr begin to strengthen their grip on America in an practical fashion — probably by weaponizing the already existing ICE infrastructure — this is going to give creative types something they thrive on: a limit. Art has to have limits so they can be toyed with, almost crossed and generally fucked with. Artists need something to make them angry and if they know speaking ill of the autocrat is a big no-no, then, of course, that’s the one thing they’re going to want to do.

I know for me, at least, that my rage against the Trump Administration has fueled the two years of hard work necessary to get me this far with the allegorical thriller I’m working on. (But it’s not Network — it’s not nearly as allegorical as maybe it should be given how aggressive ICE will become soon enough.)

It’s at least possible that once the shouting’s over and Trump’s court coup is successful, that 50% of the American population is going to need a cathartic release. As such, the entire American entertainment industry might be revolutionized. (But this in context — Hollywood may move somewhere like Perth before it’s over with if Trump puts the squeeze on studio executives.)

The point is — if nothing else, a lot of angry art might begin to grow very popular. We might, just might see the return of punk or rock music. The gritty movies like we had in the early 1970s might grow more popular. There might be extremes — the serious movies will grow darker and the funny movies more funny.

They will all have a point, though — attacking the autocrat without crossing the line so everyone gets arrested and thrown into an ICE camp.

No Fate But What We Make –‘Autocracy or The Big Ugly’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m actively tuning out of what’s going on right now with the election. If I could, I would be “The Man In The High Castle.” For various reasons, I can’t escape the events of the outside world seeping into my little writing cocoon that I’ve managed to establish overnight.

So, here’s what’s going on in my view.

I was right — autocrats never lose. The conditions that allowed Trump to win in the first place are simply too powerful. The descent into autocracy is complete. It happened right before our eyes over the last four years. We should have been tipped off about this inevitably by we could never muster up the political will to do anything about Trump, no matter how bad he got.

The bad guys have won. If you follow the idea of “form follows function,” the next thing that will happen once Trump steals the election at SCOTUS will be a swift consolidation of power. Using the threat of revoking broadcast licensing, the entire media world will be purged. And the entire intelligence infrastructure will be purged of the “deep state” as well.

As some point, very soon, Trump is going to start tweeting about how the budget deficit is too big and we ABSOLUTELY have to past a balance budget amendment. But we have to call a Constitutional Convention to do it. The same dynamic we’ve seen the last four years will happen. He’ll get his Constitutional Convention and because it will be made up of MAGA sycophants, they will go rouge and pass a “Second Bill of Rights,” which is, in fact, something akin to American Enabling Acts.

Trump will also leave NATO and form some sort of autocratic alliance with Russia, Turkey, Hungry, (rump) England and the Philippines. The entire post-world war two liberal order will come crashing down and everything will be rearranged. This will probably be sold to the American public — and reluctant Republicans — as being forced upon us because of the rise of China.

All this happens a lot quicker than you might think, especially if TrumpBarr have to fight to steal the election. The more difficult it is for them to win, or “not lose,” the more radical they will become. This is doubly so if there is any violence associated with either their coup in the courts or their final consolidation of power.

TrumpBarr will take “total control” by invoking the Insurrection Act.

Now, that’s what I think is going to happen. But there is, at least in the abstract, another possibility. I serious doubt this is going to happen because our autocratic infection has gone septic — our liberal democracy is dead and we just don’t have it in us to do what would be required to actually force #MoscowMitch to take notice.

In fact, the only thing that makes me think there is a greater than zero sum chance this other option might happen is, well, Trump is a fucking incompetent moron. Even with the help of Interior Minister Barr, it’s possible that because of the passions of the election and how the country is split pretty much 50 / 50 that, well, the suffer The Big Ugly.

So, really, the absolute worst case scenario that I’ve been ranting about for months now might come true — the United States may buckle. We may have something akin to a civil war / revolution for no other reason than Trump is now a caged rat who will do anything — even destroy the country — to prevent himself from going to prison post-election.

These two options are on something of a continuum from autocracy to The Big Ugly. In the middle would be something along the lines of an extreme 2000 outcome where the center-Left knows they got screwed over, they’re peaceful and the whole issue of what happened will get throw into the memory hole along with the Iraq War.

Or, put another way, something would have to change in a rather abrupt fashion for Trump not to “not lose” via SCOTUS. I would suggest keep an eye on Trump Tower. If passions grow so bad in the country that a mob of angry New Yorker’s take Trump Tower and gut it, then, well, the Big Ugly is here. Or be prepared for several Timothy McVeigh in Oklahoma City type events to happen across the country by the far Right. Something, anything that would break the seal on political violence. Something along the lines of John Brown’s attack on Harper’s Ferry.

But such events are very abstract. I’m not advocating any of that — Jesus Christ — I’m just, in an abstract fashion, giving you some sense of how you would know our inevitable march into a Russian style autocratic managed democracy might take a rather sudden left turn.

I just can’t see that happening, though. It’s over, folks. We’re an autocracy. And, in real terms, given how weak the opposition to Trump is — and how incompetent he is — it’s possible that Trump’s final consolidation will be far more gradual than I imagine. We’ll just wake up at some point in 2023 and realize we had a chance to prevent the dystopia we now live in and we blew it — in more ways than one.

Again, I’m not advocating any type of Big Ugly. That’s not my scene. I just want to finish my allegorical novel about the Trump Era and see if I can sell it. That’s all I want. Live long and prosper, folks.

Trump Has His Own Fate — & The Fate Of The Nation — In His Hands


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

At the end of the American Civil War, Gen. Robert E. Lee was given the option of carrying on a guerilla war after Richmond fell. Thankfully, for all of us, he declined.

Well, it definitely seems as though we aren’t going to be so lucky with Trump should he lose. (I still think either the Russians or Barr will make all of this moot and Trump, like all autocrats, will “not lose.”) It’s possible that Trump’s ultimate legacy is he pressed the issue — he went out of his way to incite violence.

So, while under most normal circumstances, we would all be really tense but in the end we would look back and laugh at how hysterical we were, it’s very possible that Trump’s “final piviot” will be the destruction of the United States out of a combination of spite and self-preservation.

There are a number of ways this might happen. One, the most obvious, is he declares victory as early as possible, which is a signal to his supporters to fuck shit up. Or, after sulking a few days, his insanity and his criminality finally fuse in a rather dramatic fashion and he goes out in something of a blaze of glory. He actually becomes transactional in his efforts to destroy the country.

He could fire the head of the FBI and name Rudy specifically so people like Obama and Biden (and the entire “Deep State”) are frogwalked in a very public fashion. This, in itself, might be enough to cause a civil war. Or, put another way, Trump could lose in a landslide and start a civil war all on his own because he doesn’t want to go to prison.

It could get so bad that even Republicans begin to grow alarmed, and the whole Big Lie at the center of MAGA’s takeover of the Republican Party is exposed.

And, of course, if that doesn’t work, Trump flies AF1 to Moscow right before Jan. 20th and spills all our secrets to the Russians.

Last Minute Election Predictions


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

On a strictly political level, it seems as though Biden is in a very good position to have something of a landslide tomorrow. And, yet, there is my lingering fear that Trump didn’t remove 1/3 of our troops from Germany for no reason. He may have done it for the specific reason that he wants government sponsored Russian hackers to change votes in his favor.

I’m not optimistic.

If this doesn’t happen, then I will be completely flabbergasted. It will be inexplicable. Everything about both Trump’s native personality and his relationship to the Russians would indicate he didn’t just randomly decide to pull such a dick move on the Germans so close to the election.

One thing to remember is two things are careening towards each other — a political landslide for Biden and TrumpBarr’s total unwillingness to leave power without extracting a pound flesh. That’s a recipe for The Big Ugly because if Trump loses the Mandate of Heaven in a self-evident fashion and, yet, weirdly wins a second term, it’s very likely things are going to get bumpy pretty quick.

And that, in itself, may be the point. It may be that Trump really would rather destroy the United States than leave office — something I’ve been ranting about since he was elected.

What’s more, even if Trump is demonstrably trounced on Election Night, it’s very possible that’s just the beginning. TrumpBarr may go to ridiculous lengths to fight any Biden victory, even if they lose in a landslide. That, in turn, will, well, cause a massive shitshow, the likes of which we’ve not seen since 1860.

Among the things I fear are, massive violence that happens after Trump declares victory even though it’s self-evident he’s going to lose. TrumpBarr fucking with the certification of Electors — no matter what — so state legislatures name MAGA Electors instead of Biden Electors.

And, speaking of Electors, what House Trump wants is make things so muddled that SCOTUS rules that the MAGA legislatures of a significant number of battle ground states can name the Electors, no matter what. Or, put another way, Electors and their selection is the absolute weakness link in the Constitution. It’s easy to imagine a scenario where TrumpBarr win through violence and general ratfucking.

That, too, is a situation where there might be a civil war or revolution — The Big Ugly. So, in a sense, it’s possible that Election Night will be just the beginning of a very long, very painful episode in American political history that involves far more deaths than any of us could possibly imagine right now.

Or not.

What’s more, if, after a month or so Trump miraculously loses in the courts, we will then enter the “salt the earth on the way out” phase of things. Trump will pardon hundreds of his cronies — including Jared’s dad — and maybe even himself!

And, in the end, after he’s destroyed as much of the government as possible and ruined the Executive branch for a generation, Trump could very well leave the country around, say, January 10th and land in Moscow. He then quits and spends all his time with Russian hookers and telling Putin all of our secrets.

Prove me wrong, folks.

An Election Day 2020 Nightmare Scenario


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Right now, it seems as though Trump and Trump alone has not only his own fate, but the fate of the United States, in his hands. Since he’s a deranged moron, obviously he doesn’t give a shit about the United States. As such, here’s a scenario.

At the earliest possible moment, Trump announces he’s won. At the same time, the MAGA-Qanon base begins to firebomb strategic polling locations across the country.

JFK Jr pops out of the top of Trump’s head and we all live in peace and harmony for a 1,000 years under the benevolent rule of Q. I may have made that last part up.

Anyway, the point is — there are ways whereby Trump “doesn’t lose” because there’s not a free and fair election. The question, of course, is, will it just be seen as extreme version of the 2000 situation, or something much, much darker. I honestly don’t know.

I just don’t know what the endgame is.

TrumpBarr’s Three Prong Coup


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

  1. Sue
    This prong involves suing everything that moves the instant they can. The Trump Campaign is already doing this, but they will go into overdrive the moment the polls close on Election Night. They know SCOTUS is their failsafe, no matter what, so there you go — they will win.
  2. Violence
    This prong will be something of a suckerpunch. Between now and Election Night MAGA-Qanon will amp up the violence and disruptions to the point that a lot of people who might otherwise vote, won’t. Trump wins there, too.
  3. Barr
    This would be Barr somehow giving Trump’s sketchy coup activities just enough of a legal justification that conservatives-who-aren’t-MAGA will have some sort of talking point to make themselves feel better.

    All of this is going to happen very, very quickly now. If they’re successful, Trump could “win” and it’ll just be an extreme version of 2000. If they aren’t as successful as they think they otherwise could be, then, well, we have a civil war or revolution.

    Good luck.

The Dark Reason Why The Russians May Not Save Trump


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I have been so busy thinking about how valuable Trump is to the Russians that I totally missed something — maybe they have come to believe that Trump is such a craven idiot that he will be more destructive if he actually loses. In that case, they don’t have to fuck with votes — even though they might still do it.

They just sit back and watch Trump be, well, Trump.

He stages a coup and either way the Russians get what they want. Either he is successful and America is nothing more than autocratic Trumplandia or he fails and we have to go through The Big Ugly.

The one thing we have to be clear about, though, Barr is likely going to give Trump a thin veneer of legality for any coup he may attempt.

I can’t believe any of this is real. I hope I’m wrong. I really do. I don’t want this. I only keep coming up with worse case scenarios to make myself feel better.

‘Red Alert’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It’s deep to see very real indications that all your dark scenarios may be coming true. I think the thing that a lot of people missed about the massive clusterfuck we may be about to enter is the role of Trump himself to force the issue. It seems like there’s been a lot of “Oh, that would never happen” going on.

Welp.

So, as I can discern, here’s TrumpBarr’s gameplan. Even if it’s extremely obvious that Biden is going to win outright, the moment Trump has any good news he declares victory.

Then, in one fell swoop, American politics is suspended and we enter Coup Dynamics. We enter The Big Ugly. What I mean by that is, Trump uses a combination of MAGA-Qanon violence and Barr legal skullduggery to “not lose” the election.

So, weirdly enough, we would have a similar situation as to what happened in Belarus where the autocrat “won” by 98% of the vote by everyone knew that was a lie and took to the streets. The unnerving issue is we’re careening towards a massive 9/11 level suckerpunch.

The thinking on the part of TrumpBarr is they use any violence — even if it’s from their own supporters — to use the Insurrection Act to seize “total control.” They shut down voting and use SCOTUS to give themselves a thin veneer of legality so the conservative-but-not-MAGA part of the electorate will simply shrug and go back to enjoying their tax breaks and young, hack MAGA judges.

At this point, their thinking is through sheer force of will they can “not lose” the election just like Bush did in 2000.

For me, the issue is American self-perception. Americans have never in our 240-odd history gone through an actual coup. So it will be interesting to see how such an unprecedented event hits the American psyche.

Americans are so God-awful complacent — and so absolutely polarized — that even if it’s self-evident to 60% of the electorate that coup is taking place, 40% of the electorate will say, “but Trump is legally president.”

So that might be the outcome — nothing more than an extreme version of 2000. Instead of the center-Left thinking in vague terms the election was stolen, they will think THE ELECTION WAS STOLEN VIA COUP. Meanwhile, the center-Right will simply shrug and tell us we have Trump Derangement Syndrome.

In that case, it would be a draw and, by definition, a victory for TrumpBarr. I guess they key takeaway is do not think in terms of traditional politics. TrumpBarr is going to fight dirty. We have to be prepared.

Apocalypse & How: Various #TrumpCoup Scenarios


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

  1. Trump Loses?
    This is the least likely scenario because autocrats never lose. Something, most likely the Russians — is going to step in and cause him to “win.” But if he does lose in a manner that not even he can deny (even though he will try) he will salt the earth on the way out in an effort to establish a “Trump Deep State.” He’s already destroyed much of the executive branch for a generation, he’s such a greedy moron he’s going to take it to the next level for the three months he has zero accountability. He will pardon himself. Or name Rudy to head the FBI and indict Biden so he can use it as a negotiating tactic to prevent his own indictment once he’s out of office.
  2. Trump Loses…But Wins.
    In this scenario, Trump loses and sulks for a few days. He pops out with the names and home addresses of all the Biden Electors and sicks MAGA-Qanon on them as human beings. Through sheer intimidation, Trump wins in the Electoral College and fuck you. This wouldn’t happen in a vacuum, of course, but even then, I find any idea that Republicans wouldn’t just sit back and laugh dubious.
  3. Trump Loses….But Wins…Then Loses
    In this scenario, Trump loses initially, then through post-election shenanigans wins, only to be impeached the moment he is sworn in. The Senate (if it’s flipped) holds a very long, very excruciating impeachment trial of both Trump and Pence (with witnesses!) and because Nancy Pelosi stepped aside to so Democrats could name Biden Speaker of the House, once Trump and Pence are convicted because the country is on the cusp of a very violent implosion, Biden becomes president. Though, to be fair, TrumpBarr would challenge the Presidential Succession Act at SCOTUS and win there (duh) so we could endup with someone like a President Pompeo or President Barr. This, too, would not happen in a political vacuum, so that might be the final thing that tips the country into a shooting war. Good times!
  4. Trump Loses, But Won’t Leave
    This is talked about a lot and I think it has some validity. This one hinges on how sane Trump might — or might not — be should he lose despite Russia having every reason — and opportunity — to change votes in battleground states so he “wins.” If Trump finally freaks the fuck out and his criminality fuses with his insanity, then the might just hold up in the White House and not leave. He might do some very deranged things for three months and Republicans will continue to facilitate whatever it is he wants them to do. In the end, Federal marshals have to physically remove him from a White House that’s surrounded by MAGA-Qanon people. There will be a Battle For The White House.
  5. Trump “Wins” California
    In this scenario, things are tight enough on Election Night that Trump declares victory and demands SCOTUS end all vote counting at Midnight. They agree (duh) and so few votes have been counted in major states like California that he “wins” the state. If there any “problems,” TrumpBarr invoke the Insurrection Act and even though even The New York Times admits a coup is taking place, lulz, nothing really happens. But along the way Trump Tower is attacked by an angry mob of New Yorkers and this serves as TrumpBarr’s “Reichstag Fire.”
  6. 2016 Redux
    In this scenario, Trump mysteriously wins exactly the way he did in 2016. The Russians hack directly into our election systems and fuck you. They have already said they want an American Civil War — “the worse the better” — and that Trump is “their guy.” Why on earth would they not change votes if they have the ability? What’s worse, even if we find out, the Republicans Party is so craven, so traitorous that they would eagerly bounce any such controversy to SCOTUS where they win (duh.) This, too, would not happen in a political vacuum and it might be the thing that causes the country to descend into massive political violence.