Tag: A Very American Autocracy

MAGA’s Counter-Revolution Of 2025

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It’s possible that we’ll look upon the FBI raid on Mar-a-Lago as the moment the United States began the final sequence of events that either led to autocracy or civil war in late 2024, early 2025. The issue is, I keep hearing respected people within my center-Left echo chamber come so close to understanding the gravity of the situation, only to pull away at the last second.

I’ve heard people ranging from the participants of Deep State Radio podcast to the Pod Save America crew all sort of say, “Well, if this isn’t the end of MAGA, we’re all in a lot of trouble.”

And that’s the crux of the situation.

Barring a severe 9/11 type tragedy that can be directly pinned on MAGA, the rancid, racist MAGA movement isn’t going anywhere. As such, we have to prepare for something nothing short of a political apocalypse. I keep saying — we have a spectrum of things that may happen — on one end you have a civil war and on the other end you have A Very American Autocracy.

And the more the system tries to work, the more radical MAGA becomes and the more likely that whenever they do gain power again that our choice is going to be even more stark — autocracy or civil war.

Now, let’s talk about the Nazis. I’m reading a book about their rise to power in Germany and going into the early 1930s, the Nazis still had to work out exactly what their vision was for the German state. There was sort of the NATIONAL Socialists and the National SOCIALISTS. I haven’t gotten to this exact part of the book yet, but as I recall, the SA wanted a more radical interpretation of Nazism, while Hitler wanted something that could fit within the traditional conservative tradition in Germany.

Anyway, Hitler won this particular power struggle. And it makes me wonder if MAGA, in the end, is going to have a similar situation on its hands. The nightmare scenario is, of course, that Trump grows not only extremely toxic but extremely radicalized by the long arm of the law finally reaching him and when he has the opportunity again he burns the country to the ground. Or, once we become a MAGA autocracy, we lurch into autocratic state a lot closer to Nazi Germany far faster than I might otherwise predict.

But if something happens to Trump and it’s, say, Ron DeSantis who becomes our new MAGA overlord, I think it’s safe to say that our transition into A Very American Autocracy will be more gradual and gentle so there won’t be any chance for Blues to organize any real-world Antifa or secessionist drive.

Yet, like I said, Trump is so deranged and holds such absolute power over the MAGA base that there could very well be something akin to a MAGA counter-revolution around 2025. They literally could end the FBI as we know it and turn it not into the American gestapo, but something a lot closer to the SS. We would become Fortress America and some of Trump’s more radical foreign policy dreams would become a reality. Which, would, in turn, cause WW3.

Or, put another way, Trump is far, far more dangerous than we realize. Things are so uncertain at this point, though, that I can’t game things out. It really could go any number of different ways. The most radical is Trump is re-elected and pushes through a Hyper-MAGA agenda, which, in turn galvanizes the Blues to the point that there’s a civil war. Or there’s a civil war starting in late 2024 when it becomes clear MAGA is going to brazenly steal the election. Or someone like DeSantis is the Republican nominee and we just kind of gradually drift into autocracy.

Or, Trump becomes POTUS again in 2025, but it’s not until his successor that we really see an attempt to establish Trumplandia. I still think Gen. Mike Flynn might be Trump’s veep choice.

Anyway, we’re officially in the political danger zone. Anything could happen at this point, and probably will.

I May Have Discovered A ‘Red Line’ For Traditionalists That Doesn’t Involve People Like Me Being Snatched Off The Street By ICE At President DeSantis’ Direction

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I love my relatives dearly and, in general, it’s always fun to have a political discussion with someone who disagrees with you. That’s supposed be the heart of the politics of a democracy, at least. Until today, I assumed there was only one red line for my Traditionalists relatives — the personal.

That is, me literally being snatched off the street by weaponized ICE at some point after 2025 when President DeSantis finally strangles what’s left of our democracy.

But I was apparently wrong — there’s a Red Line before that: political violence.

Of course, it would have to be MAGA who started the political violence for my Traditionalist relatives to finally, finally be willing to say enough is enough and to maybe (?) make common cause with the center-Left for the sake of the country. If both sides were involved in the violence or if the center-Left did it, then, no, not even political violence would be a Red Line for my Traditionalists relatives because they could just write it off as the woke cancel culture mob being mad because they weren’t able to turn every last person in the world gay.

That’s their sentiment, not mine — I’m just the messenger.

Anyway, I think it’s a testament to the political temperament of Americans when it comes to political violence. Republicans, if they do, in fact, at last freak the fuck out and start murdering people in cold political blood really risk losing the Traditionalist vote.

That would cleave off a sold 18% of their electoral support.

But I think, in practical terms, that if things have gotten so bad in the United States that there’s actual political violence in the street then, lulz….it’s going to be too late by that point. It won’t matter which side Traditionalists are on in real terms. We’d be going to the show.

Political violence has a dynamic all its own and once you let that out of its tube, there’s no fast and hard answers as to where it might stop.

Life During Anocracy: On Edge

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Ever since the January 6th Insurrection, the United States has been classified by political scientists as an “anocracy” rather than a democracy. And given how absolutely hysterical the Right has grown with the FBI raid on Mar-a-Lago, we’re lurching towards a new, disruptive moment in this new historical and political phase in American history.

I will be shocked — but not surprised — if there’s major political violence at any moment. An terrorist explosion. An organized attempt to “eliminate” any number of high profile government officials. And you know that Fox News, after about 24 hours of “thoughts and prayers,” will come roaring back with talking points about how “America has a mental health crisis.”

They will go right back to be insane and goading their views to hurt people for political reasons.

If my fears come true — remember, I’m almost always wrong — then it would happen in the context of the 2022 midterms and then the 2024 presidential election. I will be flabbergasted if we make it through the 2023 – 2025 timeframe without significant political violence. Like, the worst political violence since the end of the First American Civil War.

It’s going to be very scary and either it’s the starting off point of a National Divorce or it’s how we start our autocratic journey. Because those are our two choices — autocracy or civil war. I suppose you might say we could have some sort of military junta….but that’s just on paper.

The passions of the late 2022 – early 2025 era will just be too much. No more middle ground. Everyone is going to have to pick a side, or a side will be chosen for you. And, in the end, I think we’re just going to slide into autocracy. Poors like me will have to either shut up or get shot in the back of the neck by an ICE agent while wealthy Blues will leave the country en masse for various corners of the globe.

Don’t know what to tell you other than — if you can, get your affairs in order and get the fuck out of the United States. We’re going to either implode (autocracy) or explode (civil war.) And in either situation there’s going to be a Great Reset with WW3 involved.

At least with the Second Civil War option, I suppose there’s a chance that after WW3 happens a few billion people die, if the Good Guys win that Humanity will unite and we’ll be able to address global climate change.

But that’s a big if.

When We Become ‘A Very American Autocracy,’ It Will Be Legalistic In Nature

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

We’ve given up. While the exact timetable of when the United States becomes an autocracy is still up in the air, the fact that we’re going to become one is now a political and historical absolute. (Or, of course, we have a civil war.)

But given that whatever type of autocracy we have will have its own American spin to it, I suspect it will be a lot like the Russian style which is very legalistic in nature. Putin likes to go through the whole rigmarole of getting passing a law or getting “permission” to do this or that thing, but, in the end, it’s all a sham. And I think that’s what American autocracy will look like.

As such, when Trump or President DeSantis arrests their 2028 opponent on trumped up charges, they will have so crammed the government with their toadies — a “Deep State,” if you will — that the folks on Morning Joe will struggle to prove what everyone will already know: the arrest was political in nature.

And that’s because all of the legal requirements for the arrest will have been met, but the context will be totally different than what it would have been now when the United States is an anocracy, not an autocracy.

The whole point is — we’re fucked. It’s over. Get out while you can. Poors like me are going to probably get shot in the back of the head by ICE because we won’t shut up about how President DeSantis is a cocksucker, while wealthy Twitter liberals will flee to the south of France and wax poetically about how Mueller, She Wrote just wrote a Twitter thread that “destroys” the autocracy in America.

I can’t predict the future, so I don’t know when exactly all of this is going to happen, but, in general, I would suppose that it will happen starting around 2024 – 2025.

A Fascist Dog Without A Bite

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One of my favorite YouTube channels is History Matters. And I often find myself thinking about how a future History Matters video might depict the fucked up politics of modern America.

And, yet, there’s one interesting thing about modern American politics that is interesting for what isn’t happening — for all the violent rhetoric of the MAGA New Right, there hasn’t been any major political violence since January 6th. It’s very curious in its absence. Not that I want any political violence, but you would think given how much the MAGA New Right rants about how they want to murder like me in cold political blood that they would eventually get around to doing it.

I don’t want to go into details of what I’m talking about because I don’t want to give anyone any ideas, but let’s just say the American government is a “target rich” environment if you were an insane Right Wing nutjob.

The absence of any major political violence since January 6th makes me feel a little bit better. It makes me believe that we’re probably just going to slide peacefully into autocracy and that will be that.

Fuck Ashli Babbitt

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The fascist MAGA New Right wants to make a simple situation complicated when it comes to their so-called “martyr” Ashli Babbitt. Much like Kyle Rittenhouse, they go through a lot of conflating and intellectually false logic to get to the point where she was just a regular old person who happened to be at the wrong place and was shot by the evil forces of the Deep State.

Fuck that and fuck you if you believe it.

She was a seditious rioter who was hell bent on making sure Trump remained president, even to the point where she was willing to be the spearhead of a violent mob of crazed fascists. If she had not been shot, then there’s a good chance that several hundred other people would have followed her lead and a lot more people would have died.

It should not be as complicated as it’s become, but here we are.

But this is all part of a broader collapse of American political society. We’re so fucked. Everything sucks. Everything is way too dumb for its own good. And there’s no ready answer as to how we’re going to get out of this situation.

In the end, I don’t think we will. The American Nazis of the MAGA New Right will win and we’re all going to have to come to grips with the implications of what that means on an individual basis. A huge monument to Babbitt will be constructed somewhere in D.C. and the history textbooks will sing her praises just as it does dings enteral president dingus Trump.

Or we have a civil war. Take your pick.

Slouching Towards MAGA Fascism

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It’s bonkers to me that the average American is so oblivious to the rise of fascism in the United States. It’s like we just don’t care. All the signs are there that we’re careening towards an autocratic fascist state…and yet there doesn’t seem to be much alarm. Some of it, of course, is that it’s difficult for the average person to wrap their minds around the idea that one of the two major parties in the United States now no longer believes in democracy.

And, what’s even worse is, a lot of people who should know better — mainly major publicans like The New York Times — seem hell bent on both-sideizing our democracy into oblivion. They just can’t accept that one side is bad and fascist — the Republican side and one side is trying to defend democracy, the Democrat side.

It will be interesting to see what might happen if we have a civil war. Will The New York Times, at last, be willing to call a spade a space? Will they become radical moderates once there’s battlefield action taking place? I don’t know. I hope so.

Anyway, things are going to get pretty bumpy in the US pretty soon. It will be quite ironic if, say, Trump becomes Speaker of the House about 90 years after Hitler became Chancellor. It’s really going to be interesting to see how alarmed the rather blase, oblivious people in the United States will finally become when it’s clear that Republicans in power will, by definition, mean the end of democracy in the United States.

But for a sizable portion of the population, democracy is very pase. They want a white Christian ethno state. They’re going to get it, too. Then all hell will break loose and we all will have no one to blame but ourselves. Here’s what a America will look like when the Bad Guys win:

The Great Liberal Brain Drain
When it becomes clear that we’re no longer a democracy, probably at some point in late 2024 to early 2025, many, many, many wealthy liberals are simply going to leave the country. In fact, it could become so bad that the very people who crow about, “If you don’t like it, then leave” will be the very people who suddenly freak the fuck out when this very thing happens. We’re going to go from Fox screaming hysterically about scary brown people in caravans headed towards the border to them complaining constantly about how liberals are leaving the country. At first, of course, they will be gloat and be full of glee at this prospect….until it gets to the point that even they realize the economic impact of this happening and all they will do is complain about how wealthy liberals are fleeing to the south of France (or wherever). But make no mistake about it — it’s going to happen. The moment it’s clear we’re an autocracy, wealthy liberals will flee the United States en masse.

The Passage Of The Republican Agenda
At some point after 2025 when Republicans know the coast is clear, Republicans are going to abolish the Senate filibuster and cram threw their entire agenda that they’ve been hoping to pass the last few decades. ACA will be gone. Abortion will be banned in all the states. Social Society, Medicaid and Medicare will be gutted, “reformed” and privatized. Taxes for plutocrats will be lowered, while the poor will have to start to “pay their fair share.” There may be a lot of protesting, but, just like with Russia, ultimately…lulz, nothing matters.

Plutocrats Will End The Liberal Media
If what happened to Russia is any indication, at some point after 2025, we will begin to see MAGA-friendly plutocrats begin to buy and otherwise make huge investments in Disney, NBCUniversal, Paramount, etc to the point that in a subtle way the idea of there being a “liberal media” will begin to seem quite quaint. And what our new fascist overlords can’t get that way, they will get via brute force — they will threaten harsh regulations and broadcast companies licensing. I would suggest you keep an eye on things like The New York Times and PBS as well. If somehow, magically, The New York Times is sold to, say, Elon Musk and you look at PBS Newshour and is identical to Hannity then, well, America is an autocracy.

A Constitutional Convention
Now, this is where a lot of people who still believe in the system, believe that all we have to do is wait for the Justice Department to indict about two dozen people and we’re all going to be saved — I’m looking at you Mueller, She Wrote — will think I’m being “terribly negative.” But we’re already just a few states away from a Constitutional Convention being called and one of the long-term goals of the MAGA New Right is for this to happen to “pass a balanced budget amendment.” But given how such a convention would be populated — by people selected by state legislatures — it’s very, very, very easy to imagine that the moment it convenes, it will go rouge and decide to dramatically change the Constitution. The MAGA New Right agenda will be codified in the Constitution and things like birthright citizenship, a weak executive and God only knows what else will be gone. That will be the central political issue of the day at some point after we’re finally no longer a democracy. And all the bullshit gaslighting that Republicans have been using for decades will be used to get it all passed. And the center-Left is just too weak, so, lulz, we’re fucked.

The Weaponization of The ICE Infrastructure
As all of this is going on, the already existent ICE infrastructure will be weaponized so loudmouth crank drunks like me will find themselves in a lot of hot water. And, given that I, by nature, just can’t shut up, I fully expect that in the end I’m probably going to die in an ICE camp. Or something. Something bleak and dark.

Event Horizon: Comparing Trump’s January 6th Insurrection To Hitler’s Beerhall Putsch

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It’s sometimes easy to dismiss Trump as a political has been and a big old dingus. And, yet, I’m reading a biography about the political ascent of Hitler and I’m just past the part where Hitler tried to overthrow the Weimar Republic via his failed Beerhall Putsch.

What’s so alarming is, if you do a 1-to-1 between Trump’s January 6th Insurrection and Hitler’s Beerhall Putsch, Trump came a lot closer to getting what he wanted than Hitler. With the Beerhall Putsch, Hitler would have had to have marched on Berlin to successfully overthrown the government there. Meanwhile, Trump at the time of the January 6th Insurrection WAS the government and, to some extent, the only reason why he failed was Mike Pence simply did his job.

Had things worked out just a little bit differently on January 6th, Trump could have at least forced the country into chaos and potentially civil war. And there was just as much of a chance that he could have successfully pulled off an autogolpe and continued to stay in power.

So, the case could be made that Trump in 2020 and Hitler in 1923 were far more similar than one might first thing. And, what’s worse, Trump was actually more dangerous than Hitler.

The key thing we have to appreciate is how popular fascist autocracy is in the United States at the moment. A number of things superficially suggest that there might be a civil war instead of a slide into autocracy, but I continue to be very dubious of such a notion.

Just because the United States is far bigger and more diverse than the Weimar Republic doesn’t mean we’re any less likely to embrace fascism when the time comes. The American center-Left is a pushover and unless something I just can’t predict happens, they will suffer the same fate as Russian liberals when Putin came to power — exile, arrest and or death.

I would estimate that around 48% of the American population looking forward to a white, autocratic Christian ethno state. A lot of that 48% doesn’t really appreciate what it is exactly that they want, but they know it when they see it. As such, I continue to believe that on a macro historical scale MAGA could be as dangerous, if not more dangerous, than the Nazis.

Ultimately, more people will die because of MAGA than the Nazis.

I think this because either we have a civil war in the United States that causes WW3, or the United States becomes a MAGA themed America First Fortress which will so destabilize the world order that…a WW3 happens. And given the issue of race in the United States, it’s very likely that once we get our MAGA fascist state that it will go after African Americans, gays and…Jews. And loudmouth cranks like me.

Form follows function.

And the diverse nature of America could very well make our new fascist MAGA overlords feel more insecure to the point that they decide to have a “Final Solution” of their own.

Here’s something interesting to think about when it comes to comparing Hitler and Trump — both of them make no bones about their long-term intentions. Hitler wrote Mein Kampf while Trump did a lot of deranged tweets that gave people a real-time understanding of his thinking.

Form follows function. There are so many eerie similarities between Trump and Hitler that you have to take the rise of MAGA in the United States just as seriously as that of the NSDAP in the Weimar Republic. As of right now, the only thing that is a major difference between Trump and Hitler is Trump is not a Great Man.

He’s just an avatar, a vessel for white Christian rage in the United States. Trump is so stupid and so lazy that he is more of a transitional figure than Hitler, who shaped history to his will. So, in that sense, it’s probably going to be Trump’s fascist successor who will be America’s Hitler, or maybe some mish-mash of Hitler and Putin.

The point is — if you have the means, start making your plans for getting the fuck out of the United States. I’m a broke ass motherfucker so I’m going to have to stay and fight. But at least 1 million wealthy, well educated liberals are going to leave the US starting in late 2024. You should probably make your plans now to beat the rush.

The Philippines is lovely.

Red & Blue Talk Past Each Other

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

While I love my Traditionalist relatives dearly sometimes it’s very obvious that all their talking points are simply the watered down talking points of American Nazis. They hear about the Great Replacement and the Great Reset and the evils of the “liberal world order’ and then turn around and either yell at me about them or just sulk in silence because they no longer want to me about politics.

One thing I’ve found to be frustrating as someone who’s Twitter echo chamber is center-Left is how so many “Resistance” thought leaders are very, very oblivious to the issues that are important to Traditionalists and MAGA.

To your typical conservatives it’s not “the border” it’s The Border. There is only one border, the national border, and it’s like their political clit — touch it and they get really excited one way or another. Now, for me, the center-Right’s obsession with The Border is patently racist and bigoted.

America is, by definition, a nation of immigrants and what anyone who rants about The Border is really talking about is their fear that scary brown people will change the make up of the United States because white women aren’t haven’t enough babies.

One thing that is interesting is the Traditionalists I know fucking hate liberals and Democrats with such an absolute rage that there is no room for compromise. They often get so wrapped up in their dreams of “putting Hillary Clinton under the prison” that when you say, “Ok, you can have that as long as Trump is right there with her” they don’t even notice the concession you’ve made.

What’s more, not only do my Traditionalists think that the “woke cancel culture mob” is out to ruin their lives on a practical, personal basis, they also think that anyone who isn’t MAGA is either gay, a “groomer” or wants to force everyone to bend a knee to the “homosexual agenda.” This is RIGHT THERE at the very front of their minds whenever you want to talk about politics. In other words, we’re totally fucked. It’s just a short jaunt towards a President DeSantis getting approval to throw people like me in a camp.

Because all of that is very bonkers, it’s very easy for center-Left thought leaders to make fun of what MAGA believes. That serves no purpose. While we’re all laughing at MAGA, they’re quickly taking over not just state governments but the administration of elections.

And, I hate to break it to you, but the Nazis believed some pretty crazy things — comical, even. But that didn’t stop them from taking over Europe and threatening the entire world.

Is there any solution to this clusterfuck?

No. There isn’t. We’re beyond the Even Horizon. Not only that, but we’ve given up as a country. We’re either going to have a civil war or we’re going to turn into a Very American Autocracy. Get out while you can, if you have the means.

A Very American Autocracy: The Dread of ‘Schedule F’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Right before Trump left office, he signed an Executive Order that would allow him to pretty much just fire any civil servant because he wanted to. This was eventually rescinded by President Biden, but Trump is still actively plotting how to bring the idea back when he becomes POTUS again.

I’ve been half-heartedly reading a great book on the rise of Hitler in Germany and when I learned of Trump’s plans for Schedule F, I grabbed it out of my personal library and positioned it in my house so I can remind myself to read it. Because it’s things like Schedule F which are concrete signs of how shitty it will be in the United States once Trump (or whomever happens to be our first autocrat) comes into power.

Remember, it’s unlikely that things will change all that much initially. But they will change. And if we’re lucky, we’ll endup somewhere around Hungary or Turkey politically. If we’re not lucky, we’re going to endup closer to being a Russia — or even Nazi Germany — clone.

The only reason why I dread that we might endup closer to Nazi Germany is race. Once we really accelerate our decline into fascist autocracy, form follows function and it would make a lot of sense for the more extreme elements of the fucking fascist Republican Party to open ICE camps to some sort of “Final Solution” for POC.

But such a nightmarish situation would begin with things like Schedule F.