Tag: 2019nCov

Corona Virus Datapoints Are All Over The Place

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I have no idea what’s going on with WuFlu right now. In some respects, it seems as though we may have dodged a bullet. Or, to put it another way, there aren’t any new additional hotzones as of yet anywhere outside of Wuhan itself.

And, yet, there definitely is a general sense that any moment that might change. A lot of cases are popping up all over world now, but there’s no existential explosion in cases from any one place. It’s a real headscratcher.

It’s possible that while there might be additional cases of people getting sick, we’re pretty much over any growth in deaths. I just don’t know. That’s the outcome I hope for. I just can’t bear to think what the alternative might be. It’s possible that at any moment we’re in for a major escalation in cases all over the globe at the same time –a pandemic.

The only thing that is really bothering me at this point is how at-risk the American elderly population is. The WuFlu mortality rate among the elderly is pretty brutal — it’s in the 75%-90% range. But I just can’t imagine it could get THAT bad. That would be astonishing on a historical level.

More likely, it’s going to be simply the perception of a pandemic — and the associated slowdown in the global economy that we have to worry about. A million Chinese could die and as long as one American doesn’t die, Americans will be too busy enjoying the “humming economy” to care why suddenly it wasn’t has humming anymore. Nothing matters in the Fourth Reich, don’t you know.

I keep saying the next few days will tell us what’s going to happen and then…nothing happens. I do have a novel to develop, so I really need to just focus on that for the time being.

The Corona Virus & Possibility Of A ‘Chernobyl Syndrome’

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing about what’s going on with Wuhan, is there’s a real chance we have a HBO mini-series about it in 30 years that tells us 1 million people died in the city, but it could have been 100 million people all over the globe. So, in that sense, while what happened is A Worst Case Scenario, it was not THE Worst Case Scenario.

I say that because that’s pretty much what happened in Chernobyl. That accident could have been far, far, worst, with much of Europe either being dead or being force to leave a now uninhabitable continent.

And, really, as long as there are no new additional hotzones outside of Wuhan — as long as there are not spots on the globe were the death rate connected to WuFlu isn’t growing exponentially on a daily rate, then that particular Chernobyl Scenario could very well happen. The only thing we might notice in the West is the global economy slows down a little bit. Otherwise, it will remain a lulz and Western Twitter Liberals will chuckle that they were right all along about how “more people die from the flu.” That 1 million people died in Wuhan (because we won’t know for 20 years) won’t really be factored in.

As I’ve said, if you want some sense of any possibility that a lot of people are going to die in the United States, I would keep an eye on the number of obituaries of elderly Hollywood celebrities. Given that the mortality rate for elderly individuals with WuFlu is pretty brutal, that would be the first indication that we might be in for a bumpy few weeks, if not months. Just take a look.

I remain hopeful, however, that this is all being overblown. I have a novel to work on it would be a real pain in the butt if the Apocalypse got in the way.

‘More Cowbell’ — Celebrity Deaths Would Be Our Corona Virus Trip Wire

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As you can see for yourself, you face a grim future if you’re an elderly person who catches wuflu.

(Don’t Fear) The Reaper

Now, I hope this doesn’t happen. I hope we all look back on this moment in time and laugh over it all (if we’re not crying because we’re being tortured by an ICE agent during our re-education.) But if in the coming days 20, 30, 40 elderly celebrities all die in quick succession, then, well, buckle up.

Add to this the cold, hard fact that a lot of powerful people right now are, well, old, and it’s at least possible we’re in for something of a shakeup with nations across the globe. Just the Queen dying of WuFlu would be enough to cause a global panic for a few days. Of course, they would likely try to hide the exact nature of her demise for as long as possible because of that — they might just say she “died after a brief illness.” Her death will be of such historical import to millions of people across the globe that for her to die of WuFlu would rattle a whole lot of cadges all at once.

But, again, maybe I’m reading too much into things. Maybe we have nothing to worry about. I see a lot lot of bullshit on the Internet that tries to stoke people’s fears and feed into their confirmation bias. How much of what I’m seeing is real, I don’t know.

The chief issue is best I can tell, there are no new hotzones outside of Wuhan itself. If that changes — it would likely change in a pretty dramatic fashion if it did — then things are going to get bumpy. There’s a chance that we may have a Chernobyl situation on our hands where A worst case scenario, not THE worse case scenario happens. As I said, we’ll know soon enough when — and if — if the deaths of a large number of celebrities are reported in quick succession.

Mulling A Potential WuFlu Pandemic

Shelton Bumgarner
Our future?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I have no idea what’s going to happen with WuFlu and you probably shouldn’t listen to me. But I will note as of right now, WuFlu is an abstract to Americans on a historical level.

Once that changes, then it will be a record scratch to a lot of people who are otherwise raising their kids and enjoying the “humming economy.” If that obliviousness changes, it will likely because someone keels over in a rather public and conspicuous manner.

If you want an early warning about what might happen, keep an eye on well-known elderly people. If, say, a series of well-known old people in the West simply dropped dead in quick succession, then that’s your cue that we’re in trouble. The WuFlu mortality rate among the elderly is a sight to see.

The thing I hope we are able to do sooner rather than later is to stop seeing these events through the prism of hyper partisanship. Once everyone freaks the fuck out and people begin to get sick and die all over the world at the same time — if that does, in fact, happen — then we have to see ourselves not as Republican or Democrat, but as patriots, citizens and humans.

Of course, this is not going to happen at first. Twitter liberals will blame poor policy and MAGA will say it’s all part of God’s will. This will delay any type of practical response as both sides attempt to score short term political points. But, remember, if there’s a second wave of deaths in the States with multiple hotzones, four events are likely to be seen in hindsight as what aggravated the situation — the impeachment trial, the Superbowl, the Iowa Caucuses and the State of The Union Address.

But maybe that won’t happen. Hopefully that won’t happen. Hopefully there will be no WuFlu cowboys crashing into the bubble of modern American political history that is a musical dance scene and the only thing we’ll notice is gas is a little cheaper.

The Politics Of Pandemic Perception

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I have no idea if we’re in a pandemic or not. For me to know for sure, a few things would have to happen. I just don’t know what’s going on. I’m NOT a medical professional and all I can give you is an educated opinion based on what I’ve come to believe from looking at Twitter.

  • There would have to be major outbreaks of WuFlu all over the world at the same time.
  • Significant deaths would have to take place in the West
  • People would start to make economic decisions on their fears associated with WuFlu

None of those things have happened yet in real terms, so it could still be that this is just going to be another one of those scares that stays an abstract in the West. Given how much the States is in debt to China, it’s at least a little less possible for Trump to demagogue the situation and blame Chinese people for all his problems. Not saying he won’t try, but his usual racist routine may not be as effective.

Right now, my main metric is the number of fatalities — especially in the West. But in real terms, it could be that the fatality rate stays relatively low but the perception is enough that it causes a panic that is totally not connected to the size of the threat.

All it takes is one person being video taped keeling over from WuFlu in Times Square and all hell will break loose.

Anyway, stay safe and don’t panic.

Practical Responses To WuFlu On A Personal Level

Can’t Get Sick If You Don’t Catch It
Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I have no idea what is going to happen with WuFlu. None. It could be that it’s going to simply be problem for the greater East Asia area and that’s it. It will stay an abstract in the West and the only thing anyone in the States will notice is a slight slowdown in the economy. The Fourth Reich will chug along with gusto and I end up in an ICE camp within two years.

Then there’s a much darker option — all hell breaks loose. When that might happen, I don’t know. Could be today, could be 12 weeks from now. But here are some practical ways to address WuFlu as we wait. (Please note, I’m not a medical professional and I’m simply giving you my educated opinion from what I’ve read on Twitter.)

Wash Your Hands
This is important because it’s easy to do in private. Everytime you shake hands or touch your face, you need to wash your hands as soon as possible.

Wear A Mask
I continue to hear contradictory things about this. Some say a mask doesn’t help, while other say it does. But the basic thing is it prevents you from touching your face.

Change How You Greet People
In “hotzones” they don’t just fistbump, they sometimes elbow bump as well. You can be sly and fistbump people, while elbow bumping is rather eerie if the person you want to do it with is unfamiliar.

Hopefully, we won’t have to worry about any of this. Hopefully, this is just a another scare that passes like so much dust in the wind.

#WuFlu Datapoints Of Note For Feb. 1st, 2020

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The following things are happening or are in the process of wrapping up between now and Wednesday.

Impeachment in the US (Finishes on Wednesday.)
Superbowl (Sunday, Feb 2nd.)
Iowa Caucus (Monday, Feb. 3rd.)
State of the Union (Tuesday, Feb. 4th.)
The Oscars are later this month as well.

All of these are social events with either large groups of people are large groups of powerful people shaking hands or being in the same room together for long durations of time.

As I understand it, a delegation of 80 MAGA sycophants holding positions all over the US government is going to Iowa over the next few days. They will take planes together and be in the same place at the same time.

Queen Elisabeth II / 93
Prince Philip / 98
Prince Charles / 71
Donald Trump / 73
Joe Biden / 77
Bernie Sanders / 78

There have been no reported deaths outside of China to date.

I’m sure everything is going to work out and America will be made great again.

‘Cast Away’ — #WuFlu Worst Case Scenario Survival Speculation

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@sheltgarner

First, don’t panic. I’m well known for being a daydreaming crank. As such, the following should be taken as entertainment. But let’s take an honest look at what might happen if The Worst Happened with WuFlu at some point in late January into early February. I am reminded of this scene in the movie Cast Away:

We are not prepared for the type of historic clusterfuck WuFlu might be. I say this because of what we know to be true in China right now. The fucking thing has a 10-12 day incubation and you can have no symptoms and be contagious. So, that’s nearly a fortnight of millions of people being able to go all over the world, exposing people and not knowing it.

Now, remember, I can’t predict the future. All I have is datapoints and no context. So this could all fizzle out and I can go back to developing my novel in peace. But suppose my worst fears happen and at some point, say around Jan. 31st, three things happen in quick success — maybe even within hours of each other: Brexit, we find out about a significance impeachment vote in the Senate….and there’s a significant flair up WuFlu cases in the West. I don’t think any of us are prepare for the reaction would be if one of the 80 year old Senators simply keeled over in the middle of the Senate with WuFlu.

That’s unlikely to happen, to say the least. But a lot of different things are happening at the same time, as if history is on the cusp of abrupt lurch forward into a new era in a rather dramatic fashion. If over the course of, say, a week, WuFlu is sufficiently potent that it begins to influence the impeachment trial AND Brexit, well, holy shit.

And, let me note, that the issue is perception. It doesn’t really matter how many people actually keel over in the States, it’s how many do it in a rather conspicuous fashion. But one thing I am mulling is continuation of government. The nightmare scenario is a lot of very important members of the Federal government abruptly become conspicuously incapacitated. But that’s really the absolute worst case scenario.

The point is, again, that I can’t predict the future. But just like when the airplane crashed in Cast Away, little decisions we make now may have some pretty big consequences for years to come.

Current WuFlu Datapoints & Questions #WuFlu #Wuhan #Corona

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I suggest you read the book World War Z if you want some sense of what’s going on right now with the WuFlu. The novel is almost non-fiction at this point. But here are some interesting datapoints to mull.

Wuflu is less symptomatic than SARS
You can have it and not know it. You have two weeks to wander around the world, infecting 14+ other people and not know it.

China is freaking out
Growing number of cities in China are in total lockdown. What do they know that we don’t?

Datapoint trend is ominous.
I’ve looked at a chart comparing the growth of SARS and WuFlu cases and relative to that we should see a significant spike in cases very, very soon.

The dog that hasn’t barked, yet
It would not take many (white) people dying in major cities in the US for the Superbowl to be canceled rather abruptly. (Systemic racism is such in the US that it has to be white people.) That would set up a cascading set of events that might leave the whole world in a panic.

Trump is a bad leader
POTUS is likely to lie, lie, lie, lie, lie, lie about the situation for as long as possible then freak out and maybe lose his mind. When the only redeeming feature of his administration is its incompetence, that doesn’t exactly give one a lot of hope.

WuFlu may have a 15% mortality rate
That there have been so few deaths relative to the number of cases is unsettling. If it has an estimated mortality rate of as high as 15%, then what happens when we go from 1,000s of cases in China to 100,000s of cases worldwide?



V-Log: #WuFlu & The Birth Of The Fourth Reich

The End