Category: Cold Civil War

‘Five Years’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I suspect we have about five years until the Singularity. This will happen in the context of Trump potentially destroying the post-WW2 liberal order. So, in essence, within five years, everything will be different.

It’s even possible we may blow ourselves up to a limited degree with some sort of limited nuclear exchange because Trump has pulled the US out of the collapsed post-WW2 liberal order.

My big question is how ASI is going to roll out. People too often conflate AGI with ASI. The two are not the same. A lot of people think that all of our problems will be fixed once we reached AGI, when that’s not even the final step — ASI is.

And, in a way, even ASI isn’t the endgame — maybe there will be all sorts of ASIs, not just one. My fear, of course, is that somehow Elon Musk is going to try to upload his mind or that of Trump’s into the cloud and our new ASI ruler will be like the old one.

Ugh.

But, I try not to think about that too much. All I do know is that the next five years are likely to be…eventful.

If Trump Destroyed The Post-WW2 Liberal Order, Would Any Americans Care?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It is increasingly clear that we may be but one Truth Social post away from completely re-aligning the global order by trying to form some alliance with Russia. The specifics are up in the air, but I could totally see him taking “America First” to its logical conclusion by ending American involvement in NATO and forming some sort of new military alliance between the United States, Russia, Turkey and Hungary.

And that, as they say, would be that.

Given the absolute power Trump has over the Republican Party, I suspect within hours of the announcement the talking points would be distributed and everyone would fall into line. This, especially if Trump pitched it as a way to cut the military budget significantly so he could cut takes even more for plutocrats.

I do sense that the United States is growing just a wee bit more unstable than it used to be just months (weeks?) ago. Trump flipping out on the president of Ukraine in the Oval Office recently may be seen as a watershed in our long national MAGA nightmare.

It reminded a lot of people that, “Hey, is Trump a Russian spy?” And, yet, I have my doubts that even if my nightmare scenario came to be that anything of note would happen. MAGA would tow the line while the already pointless Democratic leadership would just wince and grit its teeth, not actually doing anything worthwhile.

So, I do think it’s at least possible that by the time Trump is Moscow in May to celebrate the end of WW2 that, lulz, we may be living in a totally different geopolitical world than we do now.

The Eagle & The Bear: Thinking The Unthinkable

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Given what happened today at the White House between Trump and the president of Ukraine, we have to contemplate Trump taking things to the next logical step — destroying the post-WW2 liberal order entirely and aligning the USA with Russia.

Here’s how I think it would happen — Trump, at some point between now and when he goes to Russia for the anniversary of the end of WW2, will announce that the US is not only pulling out of NATO, but forming a new alliance with Russia, Turkey and Hungary.

He will also say that the USA is pulling out all of its troops from Europe and South Korea and cutting the defense budge severely.

It definitely *seems* as though the events of the last few weeks are leading up to something like that. Now, of course, the question is, will Trump do it?

Well, At Least Russia Is Too Weak To Invade Europe

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Russia is just too weak to invade the Baltics or Poland. If it was not so weak, then, yeah, I would assume they would invade much of Eastern Europe pretty soon, no question.

But Russia is too tied up in Ukraine at the moment to pose too much of a threat to Europe. Yet, I do think that Trump is probably going to make NATO moot soon enough. I think the whole post-WW2 liberal order is officially dead and something new — something unknown — is going to be formed soon enough.

It make take another World War for it to finally be birthed, but I do think that it’s at least possible something *better* might arise from the ashes of the old order.

Elon Musk Is A Trojan Horse

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Here’s the point of what Trump and Musk are doing. They want to fire as many civil servants as possible illegally, then fill the positions with absolute MAGA loyalists.

They know that it’s not like Blues are going to fire all these MAGA whack jobs in the unlikely event they ever win again. Trump wants a MAGA Deep State that will continue to rule the nation with his vision in mind, no matter who is in power.

You already see this with what’s going on with the FBI. Kash Patel wants to bring in UFC wrestlers — of all people — to “supplement” the existing FBI force. Good luck getting rid of THOSE guys once they’re in place. And, on that front, I think we’re well on our away to Trump turning the FBI into the Gestapo.

It’s only a matter of time before people like me are rounded up by the FBI and either shot dead on sight or put into a concentration camp. So, there you go.

Nightmare

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

We are in a nightmare situation. You just can’t unring a bell. There is just no going back. And it’s only going to get worse, much, much worse.

It seems as though the big thing we have to accept is the FBI is going to go after a lot of people for purely political reasons. So, if AOC runs for POTUS, she will probably be the subject of a lot of lawfare.

I just don’t see us ever having a traditional free-and-fair election on the Federal level again. It’s over. Stick a fork in American democracy, it’s done.

This Musk Clusterfuck Is A Fake Out

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

What Trump wants to do is cram the US government with MAGA whack jobs to the point that even if somehow amazingly enough there is one day a Blue Administration, it won’t matter — the MAGA Deep State will ignore his or her orders. But he has to get rid of existing civil servants first, hence the need for Citizen Musk and all his bullshit going on at the moment.

Now, I just don’t believe we’re ever going to have free and fair Federal elections again. I know we’ve had some special elections since January, but I’m talking the midterms in a general way — they will happen, but they will be corrupt. The same goes for the 2028 presidential election.

Anyway, so unless something really big happens, this is it — the US government will be corrupt and full of crazy MAGA people who want to hurt as many people as possible, in as craven a way as possible to line not just their own pockets, but the pockets of plutocrats.

‘Revolution #9’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

We’re in a crisis folks with no obvious endgame. I just don’t know how this one is going to end. The most obvious ending is there’s a “Reichstag Fire” of some sort, Trump and his MAGA Nazis seize total control and that, as they say, will be that.

We’ll become a literal MAGA Nazi fascist dictatorship and Trump could literally invade Canada to either “save it from the woke cancel culture mob” or to take its “resources.” Ugh.

I say this because, lulz, nothing matters. The center-Left just doesn’t have it in them to do anything about Trump and Musk. Or, put another way, it’s going take so long for Blues to get their act together that it will be way, way, WAY too late.

The other, far less likely outcome is a Blue revolt that leads to a Red secession if it’s successful. The whole country implodes into chaos and before you know it, a few billion people will have died directly and specifically because of Trump being a very stupid person.

I suppose there’s the “muddle through” outcome, but Trump has a way of making what would usually happen, not happen. He’s so, in general unpredictable that God only knows what is going to happen.

But if Social Security checks fail to arrive on time, or if other major functions of the government simply stop working as we all assume they should….we will come to a crossroads.

And I just don’t know what will happen.

Should I Be Worried?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Maybe not immediately, but it’s within the realm of possibility that Trump’s weaponized FBI (or ICE?) will come after anonymous nobodies like me soon enough.

I’ve made my decision — I’m riding this pony all the way to the bottom. I’ve always been a loudmouth crank and, as such, it’s not like I could fit the square peg that Tyrant Trump would want me to be fit into to begin with.

So, whatever happens, happens. And I know that once it becomes clear that even nobodies like me are at risk that I’m going to feel….some pressure to just “shut up” for the sake of this or that thing or group.

Fuck that. I’d rather die on my feet that live on my knees a slave. So, if that means becoming a political prisoner to Tyrant Trump, so be it. Hopefully, of course, it won’t come to that.

Hopefully, something dramatic will happen and I won’t have to worry about such bullshit. What that might be, I don’t know.

Keep An Eye On Late Night TV

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

We’re rushing towards a tipping point. I think the canary in the coalmine will be late night TV. The one person I could see rather abruptly quitting would be Stephen Colbert.

The man has nads of steel and if he was pressured into toning it down with his Trump barbs — he probably would just quit. Also, now that the FBI is being transformed into Trump’s secret police, I suppose it’s possible that lawfare will be used against late night TV so it goes dark — and I’m including Saturday Night Live.

Anyway, I got nothing against the FBI. Those guys work hard to keep us safe. But I do have a problem with fucking Nazi MAGA fascists turning the otherwise upstanding FBI organization into a secret police for ding-dong Trump.