This is the fourth post-election scenario recently published in The New Republic and my response.
Trump wins the popular vote and the Electoral College.
If Trump wins the popular vote, he will also almost inevitably win the Electoral College, given how much it favors Republican candidates. If he wins this way, it will remove most discussion of whether his presidency is legitimate, when it clearly is based on the rules set forth by law and the Constitution. Certainly, his actions will be highly unpopular, but this outcome minimizes the antibodies raised against his administration. Certainly there will be protests, but as long as he doesn’t massacre protesters, it will be hard to convince anyone in Democratic leadership to reject the legitimacy of the federal government. Even most Democratic voters are likely to grudgingly admit the legitimacy of his second term, and this will dampen willingness to resist, even as Christian nationalism seeps in and democracy dies.
Perhaps the best modern example of a dictator riding out postelection protests is Alexander Lukashenko of Belarus, who arrested only protest leaders and just waited for the anger to subside. Trump would be wise to follow this model. Given Trump’s ties to Russia and respect for all things in the Russkiy Mir, he might be convinced to ignore his first instincts to crush protesters violently.
Trump will almost certainly do the things he promises regarding women’s rights, immigrants, LGBTQ people, the environment, and weaponizing the Department of Justice and FBI against Muslims, Dreamers, and anyone else against whom he’s promised vengeance. His government will absolutely spread this to all 50 states, but the perceived legitimacy of the regime, and the belief that “we’ll get ’em in 2028,” will prevent any real resistance. Republicans will pretend that free and fair elections in 2028 will absolutely happen, until they don’t. The government functionally becomes a competitive autocracy, much the same as Russia’s or Hungary’s. Elections are meaningless, other than serving as an anesthetic to public grievances.
For most people, life will be boring and tolerable. For the people targeted by the regime, it will not be easy to survive in the U.S. It will also lead to a wave of people (particularly trans individuals) attempting to flee to other countries. Corruption and graft will run rampant. The government will primarily serve the interests of Christian nationalists, and a tiered system of justice will become more and more apparent. Most people will decide that getting ahead in life (or keeping your head down) is better than asking pesky questions about where your transgender neighbor went. The result is a mix of the modern Hungarian political system, Russia-like apathy, and Nazi-esque zeal for creating a pure culture. As happened in all three of those countries, democracy dies with barely a whimper in this scenario.
By Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
It seems as though the author is really going out of their way to avoid addressing the obvious — if Trump wins re-election there is a really good chance we’re going to have a revolution / civil war.
I say this only because Trump is such a chaos agent that it’s difficult to imagine that he would be able to peacefully transition us into autocracy. He’s just too dumb and lazy — and impatient — and he’s far more likely to thrash around as tyrant than he is to allow history to work its course and have us drift peacefully into autocracy.
Any other Republican in Trump’s position would do exactly as propose in this scenario. But this is Trump we’re talking about — he’s a complete idiot.
Here are my own thoughts on this general scenario.
The issue is, the United States is at the moment a huge nation that has a strong democratic tradition and is pretty decentralized. Many — many — people have some pretty basic assumptions about their relationship to the government and if as we transition into an autocracy that were to change in a quick, dramatic fashion….holy shit.
It could be, however, that I’m over thinking things. The core group of people who would otherwise be the ideological tip of the spear against autocratic “Magdonia” will slip out of the country and move to the south of France where they will continue to the smug liberal celebrity podcast grift without blinking an eye. Those “Smartless” episodes aren’t going to produce themselves, you know.
So, at the moment, I think Trump wins re-election and that’s that — America begins its transition into an autocracy. And, in the end, it will be not Trump but his successor who is our “Augustus.”
In fact, I will be quite stunned if Blues can get their act together enough to really try to put a stake through the heart of the autocracy that is beginning to grow within the American political system. In short, we’re fucked.
