by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
Someone came to this site using the title of this blog post as a search query and so I will answer the question as best I can. For me, in late 2023, the question of if we are “close to a second Civil War” is just too profound to accurately predict. But I can give you two scenarios whereby one might happen.
- Trump Loses
In this scenario, Trump loses, but rather than slinking off into political oblivion, he starts to scream at the top of his lungs for the need for a National Divorce, and as such, a civil war. States like Texas call up secessionist conventions and away we go. - Trump Wins
In this scenario, Trump wins, goes full tyrant and is deposed in some way. Either through impeachment and conviction or the U.S. Military. This makes the Red States furious and they head for the exits, which, in turn, causes a civil war.
It’s kind of a “pick your poison” situation at this point.
But there is always the chance that either Trump loses the nomination and, lulz, it ends there or he loses the general and, lulz, it ends there. There is always a chance that if he loses the nomination that he will run as a Third Party candidate and if he doesn’t win, he will demand a National Divorce.
