by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
I’m reading a lot about the rise of the Nazi Party these days — as one does — and the most telling thing about it all is what a Great Man of History Hitler was. He did not just drift through history, he bent it to his will. Even though he was unfocused and sometimes lazy, when the time came to strike, he was willing to do the hard work necessary to further his greater political ambition.
MEANWHILE, malignant ding-dong Trump is nothing more than a vessel, an avatar for white Christian (male) rage over the browning of America and the increasing sexual, political and economic agency of women. He really doesn’t have to do anything. His followers imbue him with their hopes and dreams because they see him as a “fighter” who will “own the libs” every single opportunity he has.
But, if you’re not a member of the MAGA cult, it’s clear that Trump is very very dumb and very very lazy. He is so lazy and has a such poor abstract cognitive abilities that he had four years to consolidate autocratic rule in the United States — that was what he was elected to do by his supporters in the first place — and he waited until the very, very, very, very last moment to actually do anything.
That is not at all what someone like Hitler would have done.
And, now, we have Trump’s second attempt.
If — and this is a big if — Trump wins re-election in 2024, then he will have thousands of toadies willing to be a MAGA “deep state” that will corrupt the administration of justice and power to the point that the United States will join Turkey, Hungary and Russia as just another autocratic state.
But there two issues when thinking about this.
One is, while I fear if Trump loses that he will demand a National Divorce — and, as such a civil war — to keep his sorry ass out of jail, he is so unpredictable, and so lazy, that it could be that for all his ranting about the need for a National Divorce in late 2024 if he loses…nothing happens. We punt our severe structural problems down the road about four years and all my “hysterical doom shit” will be laughed at. (I really want this outcome!)
Meanwhile if Trump WINS, things really get unpredictable because he won’t be smooth about the implementation of autocracy like a President DeSantis might be. He will go for the jugular of American democratic institutions in such a way that he will piss of A LOT of people who would otherwise just shrug and let him slowly consolidate power.
If Trump literally starts to snatch political opponents of the street in early 2025 there will be a lot of people — many of whom even voted for him — who will sit up and take notice. A lot — A LOT of Traditionalists just want brown kids put back in cages and they would be horrified if Trump used the weaponized ICE infrastructure to put Jews, the gay and the mentally ill in camps as well.
A lot of Traditionalists mean well but when things get personal, they will, at last, reach a red line that they simply haven’t had to date. When a Traditionalist’s bonkers relative is sent to a camp to “make sure they take their medication” without due process then Trump is going to have a problem.
This brings up an interesting situation — if Trump really does try to deport 20 million undocumented people in the United States, that is going to cause a massive amount of political, social and economic chaos. And without anyone to stop him trying to do this, all that chaos is going to not only rile a lot of Blues and Traditionalists up, but it will give rise of Radical Moderates who won’t just rant on Twitter about how upset they are — they will take direct action like General Strikes. (NOT ADVOCATING ANYTHING!)
Another issue — what the fuck is going to happen with the U.S. Military? That’s the thing I keep learning about with Hitler. The SA were instrumental to his consolidation of power in 1933. Trump coming into office in 2025 won’t have any sort of build-out paramilitary group at his disposal. He’ll have the U.S. Military, but the American military is, at its heart, a democratic institution and I struggle to believe it will be all that happy with being Trump’s goons.
Of course, it’s possible Trump will lean into weaponizing the existing ICE infrastructure, but even then the US is a huge, decentralized nation with a well established democratic tradition. Trump’s dream of ruling Blue portions of the country as a Red King will take time to implement, even under the best of conditions.
So if Trump wins in 2024, I simply can’t tell you what might happen in 2025. It’s very possible that Trump could be his own worst enemy. He will be so hateful and excited to strike back and everyone he feels has slighted him that he will make a sizable portion of the American population very, very upset.
But I can’t predict that future. I’m just *trying* make an educated guess.
