Month: August 2023

All The Conditions Exist For A Catastrophe In Late 2024, Early 2025

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One thing that seems to elude most American political observers — except for Frank Luntz of all people — is the rise of Trump is a symptom of severe, existential structural problems with the United States. The Cult of Trump is based the “economic insecurity” of white people who are in love with the “idea” of Trump.

White (male) Christians can feel cultural and political power slipping away from them and, as such, they see ding-dong Trump as an avatar, a vessel for their rage. At this point, their attachment to Trump is so white hot, so absolute that there is literally nothing the man could do that would lessen their affinity for him.

With all of this in mind, the thing I’m worry about is what happens if something amazing happens and Trump actually manages to lose the 2024 election. Way too many people who should know better seem to think we’ll just dust ourselves off and wait until the next presidential election.

America, the sole hyperpower in the world, seems primed and ready for a National Divorce if Trump loses and a “Resistance Revolution” if he wins. All of this is on a macro scale. And, as I’ve mentioned before, the issue how willing each side is actually willing to pull the trigger if they feel they have no recourse but to turn to political violence.

I hate violence, but I’m growing more and more alarmed that America faces something of a spectrum. On one end, we have a Blue Revolution because Trump’s incoming agenda is so radical that Blues manage to find their guts and do something about it and on the other end of the spectrum Reds grow enraged when Trump loses and they start to pull out of the Union.

There is a lot I just can’t game out.

There are too many known unknowns. As I keep saying, the old adage is one goes bankrupt gradually, then all at once. And so SOMETHING is going to happen as a part of the 2024 election. I just don’t know what. I suppose it’s possible that we might punt our problems down the road another four years like we did in 2020, but I have serious doubts.

It seems as though we either turn into a MAGA-themed autocracy or we have a civil war (Reds) or a revolution (Blues.) I continue to believe that we’re just going to slide peacefully into a MAGA Nazi autocratic state. The people who might spearhead any sort of “Blue Revolution” will be too busy using their second passports to flee to Europe to worry about us Poors who will be stuck with a weaponized ICE.

But, again. I just don’t know. It really could go either way at this point.

Well, Women Will Either Love or Despise My Heroine

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m definitely taking a risk with this new direction for my heroine. She’s a far more interesting and complex character, but because I’m doing all of this in a vacuum — I just don’t know.

I don’t know what the reaction will be. The idea of my heroine having a very Barry-like sharp dichotomy to her life is, on its face, really interesting and provocative. And, yet, the case could be made that, by definition, a smelly CIS white male creating such a character is exploitive in such a way as to give female readers “the ick.”

In my defense, the whole point of this new direct for the character is to keep people distracted while I build up to something actually happening. The first roughly 30 scenes are just an effort to lay out the groundwork for what is about to happen to these characters.

My hope is that by the time the Inciting Incident rolls around, the audience — especially women — will be invested enough in the story that they will care enough to finish the novel. That’s the hope. That’s the goal.

I imagine my heroine looks like a younger version of Nicole Scherzinger.

But I *am* a smell CIS white male — and a drunk loser middle aged one at that. So, the anger over having my heroine own a strip club pretty much writes itself.

And, yet, I’ve really been struggling for a way to make my heroine really, really interesting and unique and this seems to be as about as good as I’m going to get, all things considered. And, I think, if I am very careful and self-conscious about the dangers involved that I might — just might — manage to pull this particular situation off.

Of course, I’m not getting any younger. It definitely seems that even if I stick the landing that I’m going to be in my mid-50s before I get anywhere near having this novel on bookshelves. And that doesn’t even begin to address the rise of AI which may make all forms of human-produced creativity quite moot.

But, I create because I have to, not because I want to.

A Risky New Direction

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’ve mapped out the addition of about 20,000 additional words to the third draft of my first novel, but there’s a big problem — not a lot goes on. The point of all these additional words is not so much to add to the action, but, rather to flesh out the novel’s characters and the world they inhabit.

I’m going well out of my way to have an outsider who is meant to be a proxy for the audience come into the world of the novel and give them some sense of what they might think of the situation. That was one of the complaints of those few beta readers who have given me input to date — too much of the story was obviously in my mind, rather than on the page.

But that’s just the beginning.

As part of my efforts to flesh out my heroine, I have taken a risky new direction that the women in the reading audience will either despise or love. I have decided to, in a Barry-type way, to bifurcate my heroine’s life so she is involved in two dramatically different endeavors. On one hand, my heroine is a journalist and on the other she is…the owner of a strip club.

This is all very risky.

You could make the case that doing this is yet another example of a smelly CIS white male obsessed with boobs who doesn’t know anything about women or you could say that I’m creating a compelling character like Lisbeth Salander. And because I’m doing all of this in a vacuum, I just have no idea of what the reaction to this new path might be.

But the key thing is that adding the stripper angle to the story allows me to keep readers engaged while not a lot goes on in the story. The hope is that readers will be so distracted by the bonkers idea of stripping that they won’t notice that I’m slowly and methodically working towards something happening.

At the moment, I just don’t know. I’m a loss to determine if this is a stroke of genius on my part, or I’m being very misguided. If nothing else, I know the situation I’ve come up with is unique and compelling. But given how touchy the woke cancel culture mob is about sex — and especially men writing from a female POV — I’m rather skittish.

But, only time will tell, I suppose.

It Seems Inevitable That My Novel Will Pass The Bechdel Test

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

There was a version of the first scene of the third draft of the novel where the novel passed the fucking Bechdel Test. I unfortunately(?) had to re-write it to add some tension the scene.

And, yet, given how many women are in this novel it definitely seems inevitable that there will come a point when it passes the Bechdel Test. I wish I could feel some satisfaction in doing so, confident in the knowledge that I have passed an ever-so-important metric of the woke cancel culture mob.

AND YET.

I AM a smelly CIS white male and, as such, according to the woke cancel culture mob, by definition, I have no write to do anything. I can’t even give them the representation they claim to want because, lulz…I’m a white dude. That’s why I always get angry when I’m attacked online by people to the Left of me.

“I’m on your side!” I think.

I don’t know what to tell you. The two sides are receding from each other at an alarming rate. There’s just no middle ground anymore. Sometimes I am astonished by how self-defeating the woke cancel culture mob can be. While, in general, I’m pretty center-Left, too often “woke” people seem so consumed by their ideological goals that they miss sight of how they’re driving a lot of people who believe they’re “centrist” into the arms of fucking fascism.

Of Tik-Tok & John Lennon’s Problematic Legacy

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Oh boy. Where to begin with this one. This is such a difficult, problematic thing to address, that I probably should just say nothing at all. And, yet, I can’t help myself. I have to get some things off my chest.

I’m reading a biography of John Lennon and being reminded of how difficult and problematic he was in life has been a real eye-opener. The difference between how fondly he is remembered by our collective memories and what an asshole he could be in his private life is quite jarring.

As such, when Gen Z discovers things like how Lennon sang a song — that should not have been produced called “Woman is (blank) of The World” that are aghast. And, in all honesty, I don’t blame them. I can’t defend the song and that’s pretty much that.

But my quibble with the outrage on Tik-Tik by Gen Z is more a generational one. It reminds me of how young people seem to think they have everything figured out and they make superficial, knee-jerk pronouncements with total disregard to the deeper context.

While I freely admit and acknowledge that the song is indefensible, it was *meant* to be a radical feminist statement on Lennon’s part, rather than a racist one. In fact, according to the biography, John and Yoko appeared in African American publicans like Jet at the time of the song’s release.

I think I must be showing my age. Any honest reflection on Lennon’s legacy requires a willingness to see the man who he really was, warts and all. And it also requires an understand of nuance and context, something that modern cultural discourse is totally devoid of.

I have even pondered if maybe I’m falling into Trump-like cult of personality by even quibbling with the effort to “cancel” Lennon on Tik-Tok. I’ve come to believe this is not the case. Lennon is long dead and he’s not running for president. He was human and not some sort of musical demigod that was above screwing up and making — a lot — of mistakes.

Anyway. I just had to get that out of my system.

Well, I’ve At Least Come Up With An Interesting Heroine

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

After years of dwelling on the nature of my heroine, I feel as though I’ve finally managed to come up with a woman who is really, really unique. Because I continue to do all of this in a vacuum, I am at a loss as to what people’s reaction to her might be.

My heroine of my first novel looks like a younger version of Nicole Scherzinger

Remember, by definition, because I’m a smelly CIS white male there will be members of the woke cancel culture mob who dismiss my right to tell the story I want to tell. I’m supposed to just stick to writing from a male POV and otherwise shut up. This happens, of course, in the context of “intersectional feminists” complaining about not enough representation in fiction.

In fact, I listened to an entire Slate podcast where two women were angry about how not enough women, POC and LGBTQ+ people were in positions of power in Hollywood. That’s all well and good and I validate those concerns, but I found myself growing a little insecure — what if a CIS white male like me makes a good faith effort to tell a story about a POC woman?

Is that “representation” or is that “exploitive appropriation?”

I am really self-conscious about that potential criticism being lobbed at me. But it’s too late now. I had no idea of the cultural minefield I was wondering into when I decided I wanted my heroine to be a POC. And, what’s more, I only relatively recently realized there was some sort of woke taboo against against a man writing from a female POV.

Ugh.

But, having said all that, I do think I’ve come up with not one but TWO heroines (over the course of six novels) who are just as interesting, in their own way, as Lisbeth Salander. In the end, you just can’t please everyone, especially not members of the woke cancel culture mob who have all these weird ideological demands for any art they consume.

A Hot Take On AI & Fiction

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One thing about the rise of AI and its impact on the arts is there is going to come a point where we’re going to know who who creates for the sake of creation and who doesn’t. It definitely SEEMS as though no part of the creative arts will be spared from the transformative power of AI.

As such, I think as early as 18 months from now, the first popular AI movies, songs, TV shows and…gulp…novels…will begin to appear. It could be even sooner, the way things are going. So, just as I’m in the middle of the querying process, it could be that the whole endeavor will be mooted by AI. And that doesn’t even begin to address the issue of how the fucking Fourth Turning might be happening at just about the same time.

Sometimes, you just can’t win.

I say all of this because I think a lot of creative people are deluding themselves when they think they can’t avoid the implications of AI by removing all their writing from Google Docs, or whatever. AI is careening towards us at an astonishing speed and we all have to manage our expectations. Either you feel compelled to create — despite the dangers of AI — or you don’t.

If you stop creating because of some abstract fear of AI, I believe you maybe weren’t all that creative in the first place.

Things Are Going Well With The Third Draft (So Far)

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I have figure out a way to really flesh out the characters I’ve come up with while also dramatically improving the world building. I’ve added a number of scenes at the beginning of the novel. And, yet, there is a looming problem in my mind– not a lot goes on in these new scenes.

The idea of doing this, of course, is to lean into the characters I’ve come up with to the point that when something DOES happen, you care enough, are engaged enough that you want to find out what happens to them. I’m just a little nervous that a lot of people won’t be patient and will think the novel is “boring.”

And, yet, if you read The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo the first 135 pages are dull as dirt. It’s a lot of dry exposition that really doesn’t seem to have much point. It’s amazing, in my mind, that the novel became as popular as it did given such a massive obstacle.

But I’m pleased with what I’ve come up with. I’m really struggling to make the additional scenes as thought provoking and provocative, even if, in real terms, not a lot goes on. So, I hope that people are so busy reading these early, though provoking scenes that they excuse the lack of action.

I continue to have no idea what I’m doing, so who knows. It could be I’ve stumbled across a winning formula or it could be that I’m going to ultimately have to cut all these additional scenes at the behest of an editor. But that is a ways down the road.

I therefore just have to be content that things are going as well as they are. I’m kind of an in an idyllic situation when it comes to writing a novel and given that all good things must come to an end, it’s inevitable that that is just what will happen. I’m grateful for the opportunity I’ve had while it lasts.

Donald Trump Needs To Go To Jail (But)

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Donald Trump continues to bend the very fabric of America society, politics and law to his idiotic, asinine will. For my part, I’m just pleased that Trump has found himself in a shit ton of legal trouble, even if politically he’s still riding high. I continue to believe America has, on a macro sale, given up. We’re careening towards a historic, existential choice in 2024 one that will either see us turn into an autocracy or have a civil war / revolution.

I know that sounds like hysterical doom shit, but I struggle to imagine how we manage to punt some severe, structural problems down the road another four years. But, I suppose, it’s possible.

I do find myself thinking a lot these days about what would happen Trump was thrown in jail for violating the terms of his release while awaiting trial. On one hand, doing so would finally force some accountability on ding-dong Trump. On the other, however, I fear that doing so would only give Trump even more political momentum.

It’s a very tricky situation with no ready answer.

And it all plays into what a dire situation we find ourselves in as a nation. I continue to contemplate how likely it is we may have a civil war (Reds) or revolution (Blues) depending on who wins the 2024 election. At the moment, it seems we’re just going to slip peaceful into a MAGA-themed autocracy and that will be that.

But 2024 is still too far out. There some basic things we just don’t know. We don’t know who the two nominees will be and we don’t know how far along the numerous Trump trials will be as we’re heading to the polls. And, what’s more, we also don’t know things like how the economy or Biden’s age might factor in.

So, it seems as though we’re just going to have to wait and see. There’s no much we can do but just wait to see if my worst fears come true, or if we somehow manage to avoid them.

Could Elon Musk Pull ‘X’ Off?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Now that Elon Musk has changed Twitter’s name, I can begin to imagine a scenario whereby he might manage to turn “X” into the “everything app.” He has vision, if nothing else.

But there is a huge obstacle to this particular situation — AI.

All this talk of turning X into the “everything app” seems very 2012, very passe. The AI era is careening towards us at an alarming rate and I would suggest that by late 2024 the effects of AI will start to be seen in the economy. All this talk of social media will be rather moot.

There was a moment in time when if Musk was doing what he’s doing now with Twitter / X that it really could put a “dent in the universe” but, lulz, I have my doubts now. In fact, if Musk really wants to do something interesting with X, I would propose he made an AI prompt native to the service. Now THAT would be a way to propel X to next-level status.

It definitely will be interesting to see how things play out. It’s at least possible that there really is a -very narrow – window of opportunity for Musk to transform Twitter / X into an “everything app.”

I still have my doubts, however.