Month: August 2023

Trump Would Rather Start A Civil War Than Go To Prison

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The key issue to remember is no one is going to save us. Even if Trump is magically politically neutralized, the Republican Party is fascist and our side into autocracy will continue with or without him.

I hear a lot of chatter about how Trump may be able to win the Republican nomination, but he can’t win the general. Given that Trump is just 60,000 votes in five states away from winning in 2024, I have my doubts about any theory of the case that doesn’t take his potential victory seriously.

But as I keep say, Trump losing is kind of besides the point. The issue is not so much Trump losing as it is what his response to losing might be. You thought 2020 was bad, just wait until bonkers Trump realizes that he could very well die in prison now that he’s lost the 2024 election. It’s very easy to imagine him not only saying some pretty fucking unhinged stuff, but also going transactional — as in, him telling Red States to leave the Union.

Let me be clear — at the moment, it definitely seems as though Trump is going to win outright — or steal the election in some way — and we’ll just slide peacefully into a MAGA-themed autocracy because smug Twitter liberals will be too busy leaving the country to do anything about it.

But if Trump does somehow magically manage to lose the 2024 election, the risk of a Second American Civil War increases significantly. The scenario I keep thinking about is Trump grows increasingly unhinged at the prospect of going to prison and states like Texas and South Carolina begin to take him up on his demands that Red States leave the Union to save his sorry ass.

That seems like a very real possibility at the moment. I say this because a number of Red State Republican Parties are, on a systemic basis, so fascist and so beholden to Trump that anything — including a secession crisis — is possible in late 2024, early 2025.

What makes this scenario so alarming is any National Divorce (Second American Civil War) would directly lead to WW3 breaking out, not to mention the DPRK potentially lobing a few H-bombs our way for good measure. Anyway, not only can I not predict the future, I’m always wrong.

Good luck.

A Risky Strategy For The Novel

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As I’ve said before, the second draft of the novel came in at 81,000 words. I allotted myself ~100,000 words, so I’ve gamed out a whole new beginning for the novel with 20,000 additional words in mind. My only fear is that not a lot goes on, in real terms, during all those additional scenes.

I am reminded of how the first 135 pages of The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo is all backstory, data dumps and other boring shit. Not a lot goes on. After all of that is finished, the story goes really, really fast. I’m not a famous Swedish journalist, so I really can’t afford to do that. And, yet, I have come up with a number of really interesting, sexxy plot points that hopefully — hopefully — will keep people reading despite the lack of action.

That’s the goal, at least.

And this doesn’t even begin to address how I’ve decided to completely re-write the third act on a structural basis. What I have now just doesn’t work for a number of reasons and I desperately need to rethink it. And the midpoint of the story isn’t all that great, either.

Thankfully, I’ve given myself another year before I start querying. As such, I have considerable slack in the process. But I also want to start working on a back up scifi novel. I have two strong scifi novel concepts rolling around in my mind that I need to start to really sink my teeth into.

Anyway. I’m not getting any younger. I could drop dead of a heart attack or stroke pretty much any moment. AND, of course, there is the cold, hard fact that Something Bad is going to happen in late 2024, early 2025 just as I’m struggling with querying.

Trump Is Going To Demand A Constitutional Convention In His ‘Blood & Soil’ Second Term

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I can’t predict the future — no one can — but it definitely seems as though Trump is going to win in 2024. And when he does, he will go full-bore autocrat. The person we need to keep an eye on is who is veep ultimately ends up being. But let’s talk about the big issue of Trump’s second term — a Constitutional Convention.

Now, Trump is so dumb and has such a poor grasp of abstract legal concepts that he might not even want a Constitutional Convention. He may just say that he’s going to stay in office the rest of his life because he “deserves it.” Given the mass chaos that will be going on anyway at this point, there may come a point that Trump is pressured into at least accepting the calling up a Constitutional Convention to do his bidding.

Now, there is a pretty big known unknown to all of this and that is, during the transition into a MAGA-themed autocracy, is it at all possible that some sort of “Resistance Revolution” might take place that would aim to prevent Trump from turning the United States into a Russia clone in the first place. This is a huge mystery to me.

I just don’t know.

I seriously doubt it, but as I keep saying, you go bankrupt gradually, then all at once. So, it’s at least possible that as part of the passions of the day, something akin to a “Resistance Revolution” does, in fact, take place.

But back to the Constitutional Convention.

Given how existential a Constitutional Convention would be, the whole thing would definitely be a put-up-or-shut-up moment for any American who believes in democracy. I still believe that the people who would otherwise lead any sort of “Resistance Revolution” will be too busy fleeing the country to do anything about a MAGA-led Constitutional Convention.

As such, the Constitutional Convention is held, people shrug and it proceeds to staple some sort of MAGA-themed Enabling Acts onto the Constitution. Trump gets to stay in office forever (or some such) and we all wake up in 20 years and wonder why we’re invading Canada to free it from the “woke cancel culture mob.”

I wish I was kidding.

There Is A Real Risk Of Civil War If Trump Loses In 2024

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I just don’t see Trump losing in 2024. At this point, it seems an immutable force of American political history that Trump wins in 2024 and he — and his immediate successor — transition the United States into a Russia-like autocracy.

And, yet, I suppose it’s at least possible that Trump might lose in 2024. It’s highly unlikely, but it’s possible.

The thing we have to begin to game out is what Trump would do if that did, in fact, happen. What I think would happen is Trump would freak the fuck out and he would begin to thrash about, spinning his usual bullshit. He would be so upset at the prospect of going to prison that he might begin to rant about how Red States need to leave the Union.

As such, I could totally see it being a race between Texas and South Carolina to see which state would call up a Secessionist Convention first.

Now, any talk of a National Divorce — which would lead to a civil war — is complicated by a number of things, chief amongst them being race. The idea of Southern states leaving the Union might make white good old boys feel good about the South, at last, “rising again,” but it would alarm the African American community a great deal.

So, I don’t know. It’s a very peculiar situation. Even Texas, which is shifting Blue long-term, might simply collapse into an intra-state civil war if there was any serious attempt to leave the Union. As such, the states to actually successfully call a secessionist convention might be the very white, low population states of the Rocky Mountain area.

Or, put another way, the whole thing would be a clusterufck becuase it just wouldn’t be as simple as the secessionists might otherwise believe. It would all be very, very messy and tragic. A lot of people would die for no damn reason and it’s likely the greatest country in human history would wilfully reduce itself to rubble.

Like I said — I just don’t see Trump losing in 2024. So, lulz, welcome to autocracy!

The Die Is Cast

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

No one is going to save us when it comes to Trump and MAGA. On a macro basis, the die is cast. Or, put another way, now that all of the expected indictments of Trump have been handed down, we’re a lot closer to knowing the dynamic going into the 2024 election.

Trump is an avatar, a vessel for the MAGA fascist rage over not just the browning of America and the growing economic agency of women, but nothing more than just “vibes.” So, barring something I can’t predict, Trump will see being elected as his only way to avoid going to prison.

I still believe that Trump is going to win in 2024 and we’ll just slide peacefully into autocracy. That will be that. I just don’t see Blues having the spunk to do anything about a lurch into autocracy. Too many Blues have second passports they have through their refugee grandparents. They’re cowards with the means, motive and opportunity to flee the country when autocracy comes to America. Rather than any sort of “Resistance Revolution” in late 2024, early 2025, a least 1 million wealthy, smug Blues will leave the country starting Election Day 2024.

And, yet, if Trump does lose, there is a real risk that in a hysterical bid to avoid prison time, Trump could begin to demand that Red States leave the Union. Then we have a National Divorce — a civil war. There probably would be a race between Texas and South Carolina to see which state will be the first to secede after a Secessionist Convention.

Any attempt at a National Divorce would be very, very messy. There are a lots of Reds in Blue State and a lot of Blues in Red States. And, that doesn’t even mention the racial element of all of this. If there was a National Divorce at Trump’s behest, there is a greater-than-zero sum chance of a race war in the South.

On a personal basis, my own state of Virginia is two states fused together that hate each other. If there was a National Divorce, it would be states like Virginia that would implode into intra-state civil war because the two parts of the state are just too hostile towards each other.

Witness Tampering Is Not Cool

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

In yet another example of Trump bending the rule of law to his will, he’s now witness tampering in a rather brazen manner (see above.) The fact that ding-dong could very well get away with it is yet another indication of how America has a very Weimar Republic vibe to it at the moment.

As I’ve said before a number of times, things are growing so dire at the moment that we have to prepare for Something Bad to happen in late 2024, early 2025. There just doesn’t seem any way that we’re going to punt our severe structural problems down the road another four years.

Late 2024, early 2025 will be it. We’re either going to slip peacefully into a MAGA-themed autocracy, or we have a civil war (Reds) / revolution (Blues.) I suppose there is some “third way” that will allow us to avoid such catastrophes, but I have my doubts.

But I can’t predict the future — nobody can — so I guess it’s at least possible something extraordinary might happen to prevent the so-called “Fourth Turning” from happening.

And, yet, on a superficial basis, all the signs are that there we’re pretty much fucked. There’s either a National Divorce, a founding of a Third American Republic or we slide into a Russian-style autocracy. The irony of this is, of course, is when things grow existential the so-called “woke” era will fade away.

Rather than worrying about how many pronouns can dance on the head of a pin, people are going to worry about if they live in a state that is in align with their political views. Or if their neighbor is going to attack them for the same thing.

And if things get that dire, it’s going to happen really, really fast. Trump, unto himself, could start a civil war or provoke a revolution. As such, there is a better-than-even chance that Trump might be seen as one of the most significant political figures in American history.

The Thing I Can’t Game Out About Late 2024 – Early 2025.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

There is one known unknown that I just can’t predict when it comes to what might happen in late 2024 – early 2025. And that is, of course, the issue of how far the two sides are willing to take things if they don’t get what they want. On paper, there definitely seems to be a greater-than-zero sum chance that we’re either going to have a civil war or a revolution.

So, I just don’t know. I just don’t know if all my “hysterical doom shit” about civil or revolution has any basis in what might actually happen. At the moment, it definitely seems bonkers to even suggest that a nation like the United States might buckle and collapse into civil war or revolution.

And, for the moment, I honestly have no way of knowing one way or another if my fears are right. But from my reading about the Antebellum period of the late 1850s, there are definitely a lot of similar macro trends taking place these days that suggestion that Something Bad is at least possible.

But, at the moment, it really could be that I’m getting myself worked up for no reason. We could just punt our problems down the road another four years, or we could slide peacefully into autocracy.

I just don’t know.

Are We Going To Have a Civil War?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Let me begin, yet again, by saying I can’t predict the future. But one thing is clear, the 2024 presidential election is shaping up to be the most significant in American political history since 1860. I say this because there seem to be a number of pretty dramatic outcomes in late 2024, early 2025 no matter what happens.

Before I talk about how a civil war might start, I would like to note that we’re still too far out. There are too many known unknowns that could still allow us to, much like 2020, to punt some severe political and structural problems in American society down the road another four years.

But let’s address the issue at hand — could the United States have a civil war?

The key thing to note is I’m choosing my words carefully. The scenario I’m laying out is one in which a National Divorce becomes a civil war. At the moment, there is only one way where I see us having a civil war — ding-dong Trump somehow manages to lose or “not win” the 2024 election.

Now, this is where I have to hone into a specific issue that is sometimes missed by talking heads on TV. Trump is so vainglorious, so dumb and oblivious to the impact of his words that he could accidently, on purpose, unto himself cause a civil war out of pure self-preservation.

Here’s how I think it would happen.

Soon after it becomes clear that Trump has magically lost the 2024 election, he will ratchet up the hysterical political rhetoric. The prospect of going to jail will have a way of focusing Trump’s mind and he might even go transactional and begin to rant in very specific terms about how it’s time for a National Divorce. Maybe. Something like that.

And this would be the moment of truth for MAGA. They would have to put up or shut up in regards to their belief that the Deep State is out to get them. And it’s clear to me that if there was a civil war, it would begin at the state level. Soon after Election Day, states like Texas and South Carolina, will begin to call up Secessionist Conventions to take up the issue of leaving Union.

This will not happen in a vacuum. The reason why any National Divorce will, by definition, be very messy, is a lot of Red States have a lot of Blues living in them. And there are also states like Virginia which are actually one Red state and one Blue state fused together who hate each other with a passion.

So, as the country begin to cleve into Red and Blue once and for all there will be a massive amount dometic political refugees will be generated. And it’s this specific issue that I think would indicate shit was really going down. If millions of people freaked out and felt they were no longer safe because their personal political views did not fit that of their home state, well, get ready.

This is just the beginning of a potential clusterfuck.

If the United States implodes then there is every reason to believe that WW3 will erupt as a number of simering regional conflicts get hot really fast. And, what’s more, there is always the risk that the DPRK will lob a few H-bombs our way just to be a dick.

And, remember, history has it happens has no narrative. It’s not until everything is wrapped up that we look back and think this or that outcome was “inevitable.” So, it’s just as possible that some sort of Trumplandia will successfully come into existence as it is that the “good guys” will win.

I continue to believe that all signs point to Trump winning and the United States peacefully slouching towards a Russian-style autocracy.

The Hollywood Strikes May Last So Long They’re Moot

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As I keep saying, I can’t predict the future. So, it’s possible that as many people have predicted, the current creative strikes taking place in Hollywood will wrap up sometime in mid-September.

That definitely seems to be a viable possibility.

And, yet, I worry. I worry that Hollywood suits know that if they just wait long enough that the whole thing will be moot. AI will advance just enough that they can realistically produce the usual formulaic drek they always do and they can go about their merry business without any regard to the either writers or actors.

I could totally see suits looking at it this way — all they have to do is endure some pain upfront long enough that, say, 18 months from now, they can atomize things to the point that there are only two types of survivors in the new age of AI: suits and programmers.

Because that definitely seems to be the future we’re careening towards. The vast majority of recorded entertainment will be AI generated and it will be just good enough that the average person won’t even notice. Nearly all of what Hollywood currently generates is extremely bland and forumlatic. It follows a well-worn, well-established beat structure to the point that AI could easily follow it once technology is up to it.

There might be .1% of recorded entertainment that will be grandfathered in that will be human-generated, but, in the end, if you want your entertainment manmade, you’re going to have to go to live theatre.

Again, I am wrong all the time. So, it’s very possible that this will be yet another instance of that. Everything will be wrapped up in mid-September and we’ll punt all my concerns down the road a few more years.

But I worry. I worry a lot.

Angst For The Memories: South Korea Edition

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The older I get, the more I reflect on my time in South Korea as an English teacher. The whole hagwan system in South Korea is so fucked up that I worry that some of my former students who are now adults might have some very vivid memories of how weird a teacher I was.

Just the fact that a number of my students from that period in my life would be old enough to be curious about what I’m up to now is enough to rattle my cage. I say this in the context of continuing to see pings to this Website from people in South Korea.

Now, to be clear, I was so totally over the top and whacked out at times during my time in South Korea that there are many, many different types of people who might be interested enough in me to look me up.

It could be some old, long-term expat interested me just as much as it might be a former student. In fact, that was something that used to bother me with a lot of my fellow expats when I was in South Korea — they acted like the Koreans they interacted were, like robots, like they weren’t, like real.

I was always very aware that the Koreans were just a human as the expats and, as such, there was a very logical explanation for why they acted the way they did. That knowledge now leads me to be weary of why I keep getting pings from South Korea in my Webstats.

The good olde days with the late Annie Shapiro.

It is difficult to articulate how…unique…I was during my time in South Korea. I was so fucked up that I ended up in a self-published book about crazy expats. That was tough, let me tell you.

Anyway, I do find myself contemplating at least one last return to Asia before I drop dead. The problem is of course, that it’s been so long since I was in South Korea that things will be dramatically different to the point that it will be very jarring relative to my extremely romanized memory of that period in my life.

It’s over. Despite my best hopes and dreams, I’m just too old to ever return to Seoul and fix all the things I did wrong when I was there as a far younger man. Everyone has moved on.

It was a long time ago, and nobody cares anymore.