by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
It continues to appear as though, baring something I can’t predict, 2024 is going to Be It. We’re going to make an existential decision — one way or another — as to the fate of our democracy. The 2024 presidential cycle could be the most historically significant since 1860.
But there is a lot still up in the air about what, specifically, will happen. There are four possible options, it seems. One is, Trump wins outright and we peacefully slide into autocracy. The next possibility is, Trump wins and there’s some sort of “Resistance Revolution.” Another option would be Trump loses and there’s a civil war when Red States begin to leave the Union. And then, of course, there is the least likely possibility — Biden or some other Democrat wins and we just punt things down the road again.
At the moment, I just can’t figure out which of those four options will actually become a reality. I’m always, always wrong, so it’s probably going to be some outcome that I just can’t predict.
But I do think that at the moment the most likely outcome is Trump wins again and smug liberals just leave the country. The United States will peacefully slide into autocracy and before you know it we’ll have a MAGA-induced Constitutional Convention and we’ll have some sort of MAGA Enabling Acts bolted onto the Constitution.
It seems to me that the United States will follow the path of Russia over the last 20 years in which we slide into autocracy. The big issue is, of course, will it be a “light touch” autocracy or will our new autocrat be so insecure that they begin to consolidate power in a way that it bumps up against the American self-perception that we’re a democracy.
That is the real crux of what we face in late 2024, early 2025. At the moment, I think people are just to blase and no matter how radical Trump’s incoming agenda is, nothing of note is going to happen in regards to any sort of resistance. We’ll become a MAGA-themed autocracy and that will be that.
And, yet, there is a greater-than-zero chance that if Trump’s incoming agenda is really as radical as we all fear, that something extraordinary might happen. And that doesn’t even begin to address the possibility of a civil war if Trump loses. I could totally see Red States — starting with, say, Texas — leaving the Union in late 2024, early 2025 if Trump loses.
But, again, it’s at least possible that we’ll just punt things down the road again. I just don’t know what is going to happen at the moment.
