by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
The key issue for late 2024, early 2025 has nothing to do with another January 6th type situation. The real danger is that, on a systemic basis, the Republican Party has grown so radical that if Trump somehow magically manages to lose the 2024 election that they will begin to leave the Union.
As such, people who are focusing on some sort of repeat of January 6th are totally missing the point. The is a real risk of a Second American Civil War if Trump loses in 2024.
Let me be clear — at the moment, in July 2023 — I just don’t see Trump losing. He’s going to win and he — and his successor — will lurch American into a Russian-style autocracy. I say this because Trump’s fate remains in the hands of 60,000 voters in five swing states.
That’s it.
So, baring something I can’t predict, Trump is the next president of the United States and he’s going to be a tyrant and a thug in ways that are unprecedented in American history. And, remember, Biden is very old. And history is replete with instances where the absolute worst thing that could possibly happen, happens.
So it is VERY EASY to imagine that Biden, tragically, shuffles off this mortal coil at some point between when the 2024 ballots are printed and Certification Day. If such a thing happened, mass chaos would ensue. The last time any such thing happened was in 1872 and the solution wasn’t great — they equally distributed the dead guys Electoral Votes among everyone else.
Yikes!
Anyway, if Trump does somehow manage to lose, there is a real risk that we’re going to have a civil war. The greatest, most powerful nation in the world, is going to destroy itself because of “vibes.”
The other alternative is, of course, Trump wins and we have something akin to a “Resistance Revolution.” I seriously doubt such a thing would happen — too many of the people who would otherwise spear head such a historic event will simply bounce — but it’s at least possible, I guess. If it happened, Blues across the country would actively work to prevent tyrant and thug Trump from becoming president.
If we’re lucky, it would be a “Glorious Revolution” if we’re not…oh fucking boy.
