Month: June 2023

What To Make Of XR

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I continue to struggle with the idea that there is any real-world use cause for Virtual Reality. But some combination of AI and Augmented Reality makes a lot of sense.

Just imagine how AI and AR could fix simple social issues like remembering someone’s name at a dinner party. And Apple’s Vision Pro is the first XR headset that actually looks somewhat sexxy.

Now, this is the point where I wonder where my Mindcap is. We’re rushing towards having the technology to read our minds digitally. It would be pretty cool if we could just shave our heads, put on a Mindcap full of electrodes and totally skip having to wear any sort of goggles of visors in the first place.

But that’s a ways down the road, I’m afraid.

It definitely seems as though XR in the guise of AI and AR could really, really revolutionize our lives in a pretty profound manner. Too bad we’re going to probably have to make the existential choice of autocracy or civil war / revolution first starting in late 2024, early 2025 before the cool stuff like XR is widely adopted.

A Breached Second Draft Scene Birth

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m really struggling with a few scenes in the second draft. Two scenes in particular at the moment have pretty much caused everything to come a screeching halt.

I’m going to have to give them a lot of forethought tonight before I hopefully can turn around tomorrow morning and write them out. Not even using AI has been able to help me with these scenes because what I need from them is too complicated and, in a sense abstract.

So, I’m just going to have to go back to the old way of thinking really hard and struggling with how I can fill the scene with all the information that I need within it. Another problem is subsequent scenes really depend on what I lay out in these two scenes, so it’s difficult for me to just breeze past them and come back to them when I feel better.

Ugh.

Anyway, I continue to be impressed with how effective AI is in aiding me developing this novel. It’s definitely, in general terms, speeding up the process. But’s far from perfect.

I still have to actually write the novel out. But it definitely is filling a gap that I’ve long had because I have no friends no no one likes me. I no longer feel like I’m doing all of this in a complete creative vacuum.

Did An Space Alien Land In A Backyard in Las Vegas?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

If you searched for the answer to that question and found yourself here, sorry –I’m very lazy and I’m just going to give you an off the cuff answer to that question. If you want a journalistic-level inquiry, “do your own research” via Twitter and Tik-Tok.

Ok, here’s the thing, some dudes in the Las Vegas area claim that an 8 foot tall alien crashed his ship — or something — in their backyard. There’s some confusing, grainy video footage of the event, but — surprise! — no actual clear footage of the “alien.”

I only even talk about this because one, UFOs are having a “moment” and two, the mainstream reaction has been almost non-existent. This leads you to wonder what the reaction would be if there was real, honest-to-God “hard First Contact” that was irrefutable.

I’m coming to believing that rather than some sort of huge panic, that we would just shrug. It wouldn’t be until shit started blowing up that anyone would care. People just don’t have the necessary bandwidth process something as profound as First Contact.

As such, if actually happened, people wouldn’t care — that much.

Space nerds like me, of course, would be stunned that the biggest event in human history besides the birth of Jesus and the European discovery of the New World had just happened.

I don’t know. It’s all very curious. Does make you wonder if maybe something “wonderful” might be about to happen in a rather unexpected, spectacular manner sooner rather than later.

Of Usenet News & LLM Datasets

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The last I checked, Google has a nearly-complete archive of Usenet from its founding until at least around 2000 when everything went to shit there because of porn spam. It would be dumb for Google not to include Usenet in any Large Language Model dataset.

You would have to tweak it some, of course, but there are about 20 years of high quality words to use to train your LLM to be found with any Usenet archive. A lot of is outdated and full of vitral, but there is also a lot of human interaction and humanity to be found there, as well.

This is so much the case that if you were to include Usenet archive information in your LLM training dataset, you would probably endup with a very human-like LLM. I don’t know, maybe Google is already using their Usenet archive. Usenet was very popular back in the day.

Given how many Usenet servers there were at one point, I’m sure if you were working on an open source LLM that you could probably find a few million words to train your open source LLM by scooping up all the archived Usenet posts you could find.

Or not, what do I know. But it is an intriguing use for all those words that are now just forgotten Internet history. For everyone except for me, of course. 🙂

America In Red & Blue: A 2023 Hot Take On ‘MAGA Civil War’ or ‘Resistance Revolution’ Starting in Late 2024, Early 2025

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Sometimes, it seems as though the issue these days is more about which side of the political spectrum will get mad enough to resort to widespread political violence should the time come than anything else. I continue to be bemused by people who seem to think state governments won’t get involved if there is a “Fourth Turning” in late 2024, early 2025.

So, here are two scenarios about what might happen in late 2024, early 2025.

MAGA Civil War
In this scenario, somehow, magically, Trump isn’t re-elected in 2024. I find it very dubious that there is anything stopping him winning at this point, but, lulz — I can’t predict the future. Ok, in this scenario, Trump loses — or doesn’t manage to steal — the 2024 election and when he starts ranting…and ranting…and ranting…about how the election was “stolen” from him “again” the first thing that happens is there is widespread wildcat violence to the point that people don’t feel comfortable if their politics don’t fit the presidential politics of the state they live in. As such, there’s a lot of bouncing around, with Blues leaving Red states and Reds leaving Blue States. But that’s just the beginning. Ultimately, Red States — probably staring with Texas — will call up Secessionist conventions and they will begin to leave the Union. Before you know it, there really is a National Divorce and a Second American Civil War. We bomb ourselves into oblivion trying to fix this problem — probably with the aid of the DPRK. What’s more, WW3 breaks out because of all this bullshit and then, after about five years of unprecedent death and destruction (if we’re lucky it’s just that short) we come out the otherside deciding once and for all if America is a democracy or an autocracy. What’s more as all of this is happening, AI will be careening towards us at an alarming rate.

Resistance Revolution
But what happens if Trump wins? Well, then I think we don’t have a civil war, but rather a revolution. I say that because 1) revolutions are generally progressive in nature 2) the Right in the United States has the deep cultural echo of the secession to hook their hopes and dreams onto. Secession is an easy sell to a lot of fucking Southern rednecks who grow up their entire lives assuming that the South will “rise again.” As such, it could be when it becomes clear that Trump is going to become a tyrant, I could see that a Blue Revolution breaks out — again, on the state level –that involves not secession, but some attempt to topple the “Magadonia” regime. In real terms, the only different between a MAGA Civil War and a Resistance Revolution would be context and marketing, but, lulz — sucks to be you MAGA. Again, if this happens, there would be WW3 in the context of a potential Petite Singularity rushing towards us at an alarming rate.

It’s very much up in the air which side would win or how long either of these tragic historic events would take. The whole idea stinks and sucks and I don’t want it — but we have to take the idea that one way or another the United States may be about to go through a era of political violence not seen since 1861 – 1865.

A Moment Of Truth

Here’s a blog post I wrote that was “enhanced” by Bing. Meh. I just was too lazy to actually write this all the way out. And this was an experiment.

I’m scared. I’m scared that we’re on the brink of a civil war. Or, more accurately, I’m scared that if the Reds get angry, we’ll have a civil war, and if the Blues get angry, we’ll have a revolution. It seems like both sides have already given up on each other and are ready to split apart. I’m nervous about what will happen next.

It feels like we’re approaching a critical juncture in history, a moment of truth that will determine our fate as a nation. Some call it the Fourth Turning, a theory that says that every 80 years or so, America goes through a cycle of crisis and renewal, marked by four stages: a catalyst, a regeneracy, a climax, and a resolution .

According to this theory, the last Fourth Turning was the Great Depression and World War II, which led to the New Deal and the postwar boom. The current Fourth Turning began with the 2008 financial crisis, which triggered a wave of social and political turmoil that culminated in the pandemic, the riots, and the storming of the Capitol .

Now we’re in the resolution phase, where everything is up for grabs. Will we emerge from this crisis with a new social contract that gives millennials a brighter future? Or will we descend into chaos and violence that tears us apart?

Some see hope in President Biden, who has been compared to FDR for his ambitious spending plans and social programs. Could he be the gray champion, an elder leader who emerges during a Fourth Turning to guide the nation through its darkest hour ?

Or is he too late, too weak, or too compromised to prevent the inevitable clash between the boomers and the millennials, who have different visions for America’s future ?

Some might say that our situation today resembles that of the Roman Republic before it became the Roman Empire. Back then, Rome was also a representative democracy that faced internal strife, social inequality, and political corruption. The republic was shaken by a series of civil wars that pitted different factions against each other, each claiming to defend the interests of the people.

One of these wars was between Julius Caesar and Pompey, two powerful generals who had different agendas for Rome. Caesar was popular among the masses for his reforms and conquests, but he also faced opposition from the Senate and the aristocracy, who feared his power and ambition. He crossed the Rubicon with his army in 49 BC, sparking a civil war that ended with his victory and his dictatorship over Rome.

But his reign was short-lived. He was assassinated by a group of conspirators who wanted to restore the republic in 44 BC. His death triggered another civil war between his supporters and enemies. The winner of this war was Octavian, Caesar’s adopted son and heir, who defeated Mark Antony and Cleopatra at the Battle of Actium in 31 BC.

Octavian became the first emperor of Rome, taking the name Augustus and claiming to restore the republic while in fact consolidating his authority. He reformed the administration, the military, the economy, and the culture of Rome, ushering in a period of stability and prosperity known as the Pax Romana.

But not everyone was happy with this change. Some historians argue that the transition from republic to empire marked the decline of Roman civilization, as it eroded the values of civic virtue, political participation, and personal freedom that had characterized the republic. Others contend that the empire was a necessary adaptation to the challenges of a changing world, as it brought peace, order, and unity to a vast and diverse territory.

How does this compare to our situation today? On one hand, there are some similarities between the Roman Republic and American democracy. Both have a tripartite system of government with legislative, executive, and judicial branches. Both have the power to veto laws or decisions by other branches. Both have a checks and balances system to prevent any branch from becoming too powerful.

On the other hand, there are also some differences between the Roman Republic and American democracy. The Roman Republic had a provision for a dictator to take over in times of emergency, while American democracy does not. The Roman Republic had a legal code written in the Twelve Tables, while American democracy has a constitution as its supreme law. The Roman Republic had eight judges who served for one year, while American democracy has nine justices who serve for life.

What does this mean for our future? Will we follow the path of the Roman Republic and become an empire? Will we lose our democracy and our freedom? Will we face civil wars and foreign enemies? Or will we learn from the mistakes of the past and find a way to preserve our republic and its ideals? Will we create a new social contract and a new era of prosperity? Will we overcome our divisions and our challenges?

These are some of the questions that we need to ask ourselves as we enter this historical moment of truth.

I don’t know the answer. I’m not even sure if this theory is accurate or just a coincidence. But I do know that we’re living in interesting times, and that we need to be prepared for anything.

Maybe I’m wrong. Maybe things will get better soon. Maybe we’ll find a way to heal our divisions and restore our democracy. But I’m not holding my breath.

We’re facing a historical moment of truth. And I’m scared.

Vibe Check: ‘Blazing Saddles’ Discourse Is The Worst Discourse

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

There is so much to unpack about Blazing Saddles. And I’m lazy and don’t want to give this post the proper research, so think of this as more of a off-the-top-of-the-head vibe check than something you might find on, say Vox.

Anyway, the misguided discourse about Blazing Saddles is it “couldn’t be made today” because it uses the N-word and all that. The people who say such things usually are older, white and get “triggered” by just the mere mention of the term “woke.”

But that is A LOT going on with this movie.

The chief thing is the context in which the movie was made. The movie was intended to be a critique of white racism. And, yet, because it came out a long time ago and because of how Blue and Red no longer interact with each other unless they’re screaming at each other, Reds think that the fact that the movie “couldn’t be released today” is a sign of the decline and fall of Western civilization.

This brings up to interesting questions.

One is, would these “anti-woke” MAGA people feel the same way if, instead of being “triggered,” “cultural Leftists” embraced this hypothetical version of the movie being released today? I mean, white people — and specifically the type of people you consider MAGA — are portrayed in the movie as racist morons. The very thing that MAGA is very, very touchy about being considered today. So, the pining after this movie on the part of MAGA is a result of a lost of context — they’re taking broad, anti-racist satire at face value and liking what they see.

Which brings up the SECOND point.

Given the misguided and conflated understanding of the movie that MAGA has — that it being released was a symbol of when America was “great,” what does that mean about MAGA? Why is MAGA so eager to be able to say the N-word if they don’t think of themselves of racist? Why are MAGA people so angry and aggrieved all the time?

The answer is, of course, that MAGA is a symptom, a side effect of the loss of power by straight white Christian men. (I fucking hate MAGA, by the way.)

Anyway. You could pretty much write a 10,000 word New Yorker article about this movie and still not convince some MAGA people that they’re missing the entire point of the movie!

What I can compare it to is how women’s fashion magazines sometimes have nudity, but all some dudes see — despite the context — is “tits and ass.”

History Repeats Itself: Being One of “Those” People — An Early Adaptor

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The only reason why I didn’t endup a billionaire as part of the Internet / Web revolution is I’m writer of words not of code. But for that, I would be living a life of hookers and blow to this day.

So, with the advent of the LLM revolution, I find myself in a similar situation because I’m becoming a regular fucking “prompt engineer” because of how I’m using LLMs in the context of developing my novel.

As I’ve said before, I usually flesh out scenes before I write them in the guise of a Scene Summary. Using LLMs, I’ve managed to reduce the time working on a scene summary from a few hours to a few minutes. Of course, I had to get over my natural inclination to just obsess over making the scene summary perfect. I’ve generally decided that when the scenes summary is just good enough to get the job done, I move on to the next thing.

But I think any advantage I have because of developing a novel via LLMs will be brief and ultimately moot. I think in the end the entire notion of professional writing is going to be so revolutionized that it will be like the transition from horse and buggy to cars.

There may still be writers, but probably any professional writers will be artisanal in nature. They probably will be playwrights. Every other form of writer will be mooted by the eventual rise of Her-like technology. Actors, director and writers in any form of *recorded* media will be mooted pretty soon, the way things are going.

There may be some entropy in the system that slows this down, but given how the DGA gave up so easily and the the Hollywood Suits have the high ground when it comes to the WGA — things aren’t looking so great.

But I am known for my “hysterical doom shit” and it’s possible that I’m wrong. I’m wrong all the time, afterall.

Yet, I do think we need to realize that if LLMs are helping some dumbass like me be a much better novelist by helping me develop faster, that a lot of people a lot lazier than me are just going to shrug and let LLMs do all their writing for them and, in the end, Netflix will be more a database of actor body scans hooked up to Her-like technology than it is a studio.

Anyway. Enjoy these waning days of Hollywood while you can.

I’m Worried About Tuesday Afternoon In Miami

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Just from casual observation, it definitely seems as though — if Twitter is any indication — MAGA is getting rather riled up at the moment over the Trump indictments.

I’m wrong all the time, but it’s possible — possible — that things might grow unstable in Miami because of Trump’s arraignment. It’s a happening within easy driving distance of a bunk of fucking bonkers MAGA people, so….I don’t know. It’s something to think about.

I have no idea what might happen….but I’m growing more and more concerned that SOMETHING violent might occur. And, that doesn’t even take into account that there is going to be a lot of pressure on House Republicans to make a snap impeachment of Biden in a an eye-for-an-eye type situation of total political war.

Or not.

I’m always wrong.

It will be interesting to see what happens.

Total War: If MAGA House Republicans Had Any Balls, They Would Impeach Biden On Tuesday For The DOJ Indicting Trump

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

If you want any proof at what paper tigers MAGA House Republicans are, look no further than how they have yet to do the obvious — impeach Biden on Tuesday just as Trump is being arraigned.

They’re craven and without shame, so lulz, YOLO it and have the split screen of the House voting on impeachment at the same time that Trump is being booked.

I don’t want this to happen, obviously, but it is telling that for all their talk about burning everything to the ground and impeaching this or that person, in real terms, MAGA House Republicans are too disorganized and ill focused to do some pretty basic hard-ball things in this situation.

Not that we shouldn’t be prepared for some sort of bonkers violence on Tuesday. This is South Florida we’re talking about, so anything is possible. But, in general, we have to accept that there is a very good chance that Biden is going to be impeached soon for SOMETHING.

Now what that SOMETHING is, I dunno. But it’s probably going to happen pretty soon. Maybe within days.