Month: June 2023

We’re Both Right: Why The Culture War Over Beer Is The Perfect Encapsulation Of How Dumb Everything Is In Modern America

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Ok, here’s what’s going on. One of the rallying cries of the MAGA Right is “go woke go broke.” They point to how Bud Lite has lost, like, 20% of its market share for sending *1* promotional beer can to a trans “influencer” for an Instagram post.

And, yet, globally, I’ve seen evidence that overall, Anheuser-Busch has only lost 1% of its market share. What’s more, because of consolidation in the beer market,almost all of that lost market share is going to other beer brands, also owned by Anheuser-Busch!

As such, this is the perfect culture war battle — both sides are right and both sides are wrong — depending on how you look at things — if you ever get into any sort of argument over things.

In short — lulz, nothing matters. And everything sucks.

But I have to say — I am growing more and more alarmed at how Red and Blue are receding away from each other. Something’s gotta give. There is going to come a point where all these macro trends come to a head and God-only-knows what sort of fucked up things will happen.

The greatest country in the world is going to potentially imploded because of ‘vibes.”

Racism & Misogyny Are Hell of Political Drug Combination

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I have long said that Trump is nothing more than an avatar. He is an empty suit. He doesn’t have to do anything but just exist and 35% of the Republican electorate will vote for him. Throw in how fucked up our electoral system is and, lulz, he’s 60,000 votes in five swing states away from being president again.

But, wait, it gets worse!

The issue is — Trump really isn’t very popular. But because Republican-controlled institutions not only live in abject fear of him but hate democracy, there is a very real chance that if Trump doesn’t manage to win re-election in 2024 that we’re going to have a civil war.

And if he does “win” in 2024, there’s a real chance that we may have a Blue Revolution — at is, if all the fucking smug Twitter liberals are willing to stay in the country to provide leadership to that Revolution. (Not that I want such a destructive thing.)

But because of what a fucking dingus Trump is, we have to think seriously about some pretty destructive macro issues that are all coming to a head in late 2024, early 2025. Or not. It could be that we’re just going to muddle through this lingering crisis like we have done since January 6th. It could be that Jan. 6th was the one chance that MAGA had to establish “Magadoina” and, lulz, everything after that is just a muddled game of moving goal posts and kicking political cans down the road.

I have no idea.

But I am growing….nervous.

That Sinking Feeling

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I have re-written the beginning of my first novel AGAIN. Because of this, it just doesn’t seem like I’m going to wrap up this Public Beta by June 20th. As such, my new goal is July 4th.

What’s more, it’s beginning to sink in that I need to just get this thing done so I can turn around and start working on whatever my next project is while I wait for Beta Readers to read the Public Beta.

I have to manage my expectations.

For an unknown, aspiring novelist like me, getting published is like getting into Harvard. It *can* happened, but it’s very, very difficult. So, I have to kind of process that going forward. I have to appreciate that it may not be this novel that gets me published.

In fact, it could be that I will write any number of other novels and then, ultimately, I will be able to use the success of one of THOSE novels to get my first novel published.

Or not. Who knows.

I’m definitely in the put up or shut up phase of things. I have to buckle down and start being more focused and work harder. Otherwise, it will be spring 2025 and I’ll still be at the very beginning of this novel.

Heads Up: A Constitutional Convention In The Near Future Is Inevitable

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m always wrong. Always. But I love to pontificate about the future.And, as such, think it’s safe to say that one way or another, the United States is going to careen into a historic, existential crisis a lot sooner than you might think. For once, I’m not taking about the choice between autocracy or civil war.

This time, I’m talking about how we’re probably going to have a Constitutional Convention before the end of the decade, no matter what. And because of how the delegates to the convention would be selected, it’s inevitable that barring a Blue Revolution, that any such convention would be used to turn the United States into “Magadoina.”

Remember, the FIRST Constitutional Convention accidently on purpose went rouge. There’s every reason to believe that if the bonkers far Right people who want a such a convention so bad get their wish that the same thing will happen. And that the GOOD eventuality, with the bad version of this scenario being Trump gets re-elected and he gets into his ding-dong head that he wants a Constitutional Convention so he can staple onto the Constitution some MAGA “Enabling Acts.”

Or, put another way, the rest of this decade is going to be nuts. We’re coming to the endgame of the long-term historic forces tearing the country apart. Either we’re going to be all Red, or all Blue. And the process of deciding that particular situation is going to probably end the lives of a few billion people across the globe one way or another.

But, like I said, I’m always, always wrong. We’ll just muddle through, right? Right?

The Hollywood Studios Have The High Ground At The Moment

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I feel kind of sorry for the major Hollywood trade unions. It definitely seems like they’re kind of fucked. I say this because I’m using ChatGPT and Bing to develop my first novel and the potential is definitely there. I say this because I sometimes have to fight with these LLMs and remind them that *I* am the fucking writer.

In the not-too-distant future, Hollywood will look like this: well paid Suits, ok paid programmers and…interns who are “prompt engineers.” And even the idea of a prompt engineer is will seem quaint when, soon enough, we reach a Her-type future in which people have digital assistants who know everything about them to the point that there will be no need for a “prompt engineers” in the first place.

With that in mind, all the Suits have to do is just cool their heels and snort coke off hooker assholes until AI advances to the point that that they end writing as Hollywood professional, period. The way things are going, the WGA (and SAG?) strike would only have to last 18 months before AI makes writing in Hollywood very very very moot.

I say this as a writer who loves writing, is writing a novel and wishes to be a screenwriter in Hollywood one day. But just like you can’t go to Windows on The World to eat anymore, the day may come when….being a professional writer or actor or director in Hollywood is just a quaint memory…..

Hollywood’s Eternal ‘Now:’ The Streaming Endgame

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Here is what I think is the endgame for the streaming industry. At some point in the near future — probably after we’ve either transitioned into a MAGA autocracy or wrapped up a civil war / revolution — Netflix will be morea database than an entertainment provider.

Simone is the future of Hollywood and celebrity culture.

Because of advancements in AI, you will sit down in front of your TV or cellphone and you will be scanned for your particular mood at that specific moment. Then AI will spit out a six episode TV show or a 2 hour movie that fits your specific mood at that specific moment. It will use the bodyscans of your favorite actors to produce these completely AI-generated forms of entertainment.

So, there will come a point when Hollywood just feeds off the popularity of stars from the last 100 years, never generating any new ones because there won’t be any need. Unless, of course, someone really makes name for themselves on Broadway and they get a body scan so they can live passively off the licensing of that scan on streaming and other forms of mediated recorded entertainment.

But, wait, there’s more!

Soon enough, even having any form of human actors will be quaint and moot. All your favorite stars will be AI generated. They will be human like that all those dystopian 1990s movies about people developing parasocial relationships with faux Hollywood stars will seem very prescient.

And, what’s more,give us 20 years and all of your favorite Hollywood stars could be fucking androids. Unless SAG gets its act together, the only actors making any money professionally will be those on Broadway.

Otherwise, lulz.

We’re careening towards a very strange and weird future — especially when it comes to entertainment.

An Unabashed Mid’s Hot Take On The All-In Podcast

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Let’s talk about two people featured on the Tech Bro podcast “All-In.”

Chamath Palihapitiya
They say you can’t argue with success and, as such, I really don’t have much room to talk when it comes to this guy. He’s very, very successful. But I still have a hot take on him, and that hot take is he’s a huge fucking asshole. I say this as broke-ass “creative type” who likes to think I have enough of a something akin a secular “soul” that I can appreciate that sometimes humans create for the sake of creation. Palihapitiya’s views on Hollywood — that the entire industry is just a Tech Bro rounding error — are enraging. I mean, come the fuck on. Yeah, so you’re a master of the universe, Hollywood is still very powerful. To use a strict monetary metric on Hollywood totally misses the point — Hollywood fucking creates reality! It’s all very frustrating.

David Sacks
Sacks is a prime example of a person who is a fascist, but their self-perception is such that they can’t bring themselves to admit it. Sacks’ politics are identical to a relative of mine’s. I love my relative dearly, but sometimes their arguments are just stunning in their conflated cluelessness. Sacks wants an autocratic white Christian enthostate (or thereabouts) but knows its not good politics to admit it, so he blabs about how rational he is, yadda, yadda. Fuck that. And fuck him. But, again, he’s very successful and so you can actively ignore me.

The other guys on the podcast are interesting. Maybe a little too close to Space Karen Elon Musk, but I got no problems with them. And, in general, I find the All-In podcast very interesting and enjoyable because it’s thought provoking. But I have to admit that whenever I listen to it I do a lot of yelling and eye rolling at some of the bullshit I hear.

Burn, Reddit, Burn

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I got no beef with Reddit. Live long and prosper, you Usenet knock off. But I do think it’s telling that if both Twitter and Reddit implode that my personal vision for a service that uses updated Usenet UX / UI concepts becomes something more viable.

If I was smart enough — which I’m not — I would somehow figure out a way to use AI to design my dream platform that is based on Groups and allows for pull page posts and robust threading.

And…yet…that moment has passed. It’s just not viable anymore. We’re now in the age of XR, crypto and AI. Lulz. No one gives a shit about something as quaint and prosaic as a social media platform…based on a 30 year old concept no one cares about anymore.

Anyway. I do wish there was something a bit more like Usenet out there to use. I think by the time Reddit came around I was just too old to be willing to wade into its many subcultures. And I was so weened on Usenet back in the day that neither Twitter nor Reddit really appealed to me.

I’m old and I hate it.

Godspeed, Reddit. I hope you figure out all your API bullshit.

The MAGA Dawg Has No Bite (Yet?)

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The more Trump gets into legal trouble and there isn’t, liike, blood on the streets, the more I’m beginning to wonder if maybe, just maybe, I’m overthinking what might happen in late 2024, early 2025. It could be that what happened on January 6th was a very specific incident, with every specific conditions, not to be repeated.

And, yet, it definitely seems as though we’re careening towards Something Bad in late 2024, early 2025 in association with the 2024 election. Both sides have reason — at the state level — to freak out over whatever outcome might happen to occur as part of the 2024 presidential election cycle.

Reds will want a civil war because they want to “own the libs,” while Blues will want a revolution so they can topple the tyranny of the “Magadoina” regime. And, yet, we’re STILL to far out from these events for me to game out any hard and fast scenarios.

I’ve written a lot from a lot of different angles about how a civil war / revolution might come to the US….but…I don’t know. It could be that while Trump has a stranglehold on the Republican base, if he loses, he just won’t have the power I think he has. He’ll scream about how Texas should leave the Union — and they’ll think seriously about doing it — but, in the end, nothing will come of it.

But the more I think about it, the more it definitely seems clear to me that we won’t face rolling political violence as a result of the passions of the 2024 election, but, rather either a civil war (Reds) or a revolution (Blues.) It will be organized at the state level and will involve WMD, World War Three breaking out and probably a few H-bombs being lobbed our way by the DPRK.

In other words — it’s going to suuuuuuuck.

And, yet, here we are.

Lulz, America’s Fucking Doomed Starting in Late 2024, Early 2025

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m always wrong. Always. And, what’s more, I can’t predict the future. No one can. However, America definitely has a modern antebellum vibe to it at the moment. The country is tearing itself apart as the Red and the Blue continue to recede from each other at an alarming rate.

And, yet, to date, there really hasn’t been the type of political violence one might expect if we were going to have a civil war (Reds) or a revolution (Blues) starting in late 2024, early 2025. As such, it definitely seems as though when the time comes, we’re going to just slip peacefully into a MAGA themed autocracy.

Something pretty extraordinary would have to happen for the one scenario that we would need to happen to punt our problems down the road again another for years to happen — that both Trump would lose and he wouldn’t try to start a civil war to save his own hide.

The country is careening towards some sort of Fourth Turning at such an alarming rate that I just can’t see Trump’s demands to start a civil war should he lose the 2024 election going unheeded. The most logical outcome is he wins and either we turn into a full-fledged Russia-style autocracy or there’s some sort of Blue “Revolution” bent on toppling the “Magadonia” regime.

It’s all very fucked up. I’ve been saying for years now that we face an existential choice in 2024 – 2025 of autocracy or civil war / revolution. The rhetoric is just too frothy and the momentum is too strong. Either we just give up and turn into a MAGA-themed autocracy, or we bomb ourselves into oblivion.

Get ready.