Month: June 2023

Could The +60% Of The American Population That Hates MAGA Topple The ‘Magadonia’ Regime In A Glorious Revolution In Late 2024, Early 2025?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing about a revolution rather than a civil war should Trump win re-election is it wouldn’t involve any sort of dumb National Divorce. It would be people all over the country working together to bring down a tyrant. There are a lot of complicated problems with such a scenario.

First is — I hate violence and the whole thing could spiral out of control, no matter how peaceful and “Glorious” such a Revolution might be. Add in how even a quick, peaceful Glorious Revolution in the United States would probably both spark WW3 AND cause the DPRK to lob a few nukes our way and…oh boy.

What’s more, the very people who we would need to topple the incoming tyrant Trump…already have their second passports lined up and will flee the country at the first hint of trouble. They’re smug, wealthy and don’t give a shit about The Poors — that is, people like me.

Anyway, the whole situation sucks. I just want to live in a liberal democracy and it definitely seems as though but for us not having a Republican president at the moment — those days are over. We’re an autocracy without an autocrat –an anocracy.

And I really think I’m being delusional to think Americans care enough to do anything about Trump. He’s so dumb and lazy that he is probably going to thrash around in his second term and cue up his successor who will REALLY be our first autocrat.

I just hope I can somehow — somehow — get out of the country before ICE tracks me down and murders me in cold blood, probably by throwing me out a window.

It Definitely Seems As Though Trump’s Re-Election is An Immutable Force Of Political History. Now What?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I don’t know what to tell you folks. Racism and misogyny are a hell of a drug combination. Trump could eat someone live on TV and still have a base of 35% of the Republican electorate — more than enough to secure him the Republican nomination. Then he’s just 60,000 votes in five swing states away from becoming POTUS again.

As I have said — repeatedly — it’s at that point that we face the existential choice of autocracy or civil war / revolution. Though, these days, I’m leaning more towards it be a clear choice of autocracy or revolution. I just don’t see Blues wanting a National Divorce. But I can see them wanting to topple the “Magadonia” regime, an act which would be marketed as a”Revolution.”

It would be unprecedent, but, remember, Trump’s base is about 35% of the Republican electorate, which is really small. If the +60% of people who hate MAGA rebelled in some collective manner, we MIGHT be able to topple Trump with relative ease.

Or not.

It could be a Turkey situation where there’s a fail coup, which only leads to the autocrat being more powerful in the end. I guess I can dream of a “Glorious Revolution of 2024-2025,” can’t I?

But that’s all besides the point — I think we probably need to start thinking about who Trump picks as his Veep. If he picks some whack job like MTG, then it will be THAT person, not Trump who ultimately becomes America’s first real autocrat. And, remember, the vat majority of the people who might be the leadership of any “Glorious Revolution” in late 2024, early 2025….will simply leave the county and be fucking smug liberal podcasters in the South of France.

Ugh.

But I am always wrong. Maybe we’ll put these particular problems down the road.

Hard Deadline For Finishing The Public Beta Of My First Novel: June 30th

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m not going to make my June 20th deadline, so the new, hard deadline is June 30th. That will give me a few days to do some post-production work before I start to distribute copies to people.

At least, that’s the plan at the moment.

The biggest obstacle to this happening is I keep thinking up new ideas for the Public Beta that require me to write entirely new scenes, rather than edit scenes that exist — and have existed for some time.

Anyway. I have to do some hard work now. I have to stay focused and do some hard work.

The Weather In My Area Is Very Strange

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It used to be, once upon a time, that that where I live in the United States had a certain rhythm to it. That rhythm is definitely gone now. And this is very aggravating to me because reality is very important to me since I’m bonkers. And I know what I’m experiencing is real — nature is acting is strange ways for some reason.

We need Little Green Men to help us out.

And that reason is global climate change.

And yet, whenever I bring this issue up to my family members — who I love dearly — I either get some extreme Right wing MAGA talking point or I get a shrug. They just do not, will not, address the issue at hand — we have to do something about global climate change NOW.

But because of the fucking MAGA cocksuckers who control the minds of millions of people, we’re just not going to do anything until it’s too late. Of course, if you wanted to get kind of wonky about it all, you might suggest that if we had — glup — a Second American Revolution that Blues instigated and won, then maybe we could fucking fix this particular problem.

I hate violence too much to take that option seriously though. So, I guess we’re just going to suffer. Or, more specifically, our children and grandchildren are going to suffer. I suppose AI or, I don’t know, First Contact, might somehow help us out….but barring Little Green Men landing on the front lawn of the White House….I think humanity’s goose is cooked.

Does The Flash Being a Dud Mean The End of The Superhero Movie Era?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

To every season, turn, turn turn. As such, it is at least possible that we’ve finally reached the end of the post-911 “If Only A Superhero Could Have Saved The Day” expectations of audiences. But what’s going to replace the Superhero Movie Era if that is the case?

I only ask this question because, apparently, The Flash was something of a dud this weekend — at least, relative to Hollywood expectations. My natural inclination is to think that Hollywood is going to, because of inertia — just drift until AI Generated Movies are good enough that, lulz, movies made by people will seem quaint. Like silent films once Talkies went mainstream.

And, yet, nature abhors a vacuum, so, it’s at least possible that the upcoming hard reboot of the Alien franchise might be so good that between now and our inevitable Her scenario future where we have a digital assistant who will make all our entertainment for us, that humans might manage to squeeze out a brief era of good scifi movies.

Maybe?

I wouldn’t get too excited, however. I think we’re just going to slouch towards a post-human Hollywood between now and, say, maybe 2026-2029. Remember, there’s a good chance The Fourth Turning is going to happen and all hell will break loose for a few years while we sort out if America will be an autocracy or not.

Anyway. Enjoy your human-made movies while you still can, I guess.

The WGA Is In Trouble

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As I often say — I’m always, always wrong. But it definitely seems as though it’s at least possible that we’re in something of a waiting game when it comes to the current WGA strike.

And the two sides, tragically, are waiting for different things.

The WGA is waiting for the Suits to come back to the negotiating table, while the Suits are waiting for LLMs to advance to the point that Hollywood writers are…moot. So, rather than “September” being the deadline as one very young and naive striking WGA writer proposed, I think we have a far more open-ended situation on our hands.

It could be 18 months before there’s any resolution to the Writers’ Strike and the resolution will be that technology has reached a point where the Suits feel like they can just ignore the WGA altogether. And, rather than thinking about a WGA strike, they’re thinking about how many programmers they’re going to have to pay in place of them.

Like I said — I’m always, always wrong. So, I suppose it’s possible that something will happen and the Suits will come to some sort of agreement with writers. But..I couldn’t count on it.

‘Common Sense’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

These the times that try men’s souls, as they say. And, let me be clear — I hate violence. Totally and completely. But I *AM* growing more and more alarmed at how frothy and violent the rhetoric is growing on the MAGA Right. Because I like to make my abstract fears concrete, I think I might begin to write why, if push came to shove, Blues would have the right to revolution.

The key thing to remember for me is the Constitution itself ensures the right of the people to revolution.

I make a clear distinction between civil war and revolution. I don’t want Blues to leave the Union, I want us to –if necessary — to renew the Union. To make it a stronger democracy. I just want to live in a liberal democracy like I have my entire life.

Again, let me be clear — I hate violence so much that, if need be, I’ll just accept living in a MAGA autocracy if that’s the only way to avoid it. But at the same time, I refuse to intimidated by MAGA Nazi thugs. They want to play, then maybe we’ll play.

I really liked David French’s book about potential civil war scenarios, but he kind of misses the point on the Blue side. The only civil war the United States has fought was one based on slavery and regional differences caused by it. The Right really latches onto that deep political echo. The “South shall rise again” and all that bullshit.

Meanwhile, for the Blue, it would be an issue of saving 250 years of American democratic tradition, if it came to that. Which, hopefully, it won’t. But as I keep saying, they say you go bankrupt gradually then all at once, so, lulz, anything is possible.

But the more I think about it, I just don’t see there being a “National Divorce” if Blues, rather Reds, decide it’s “time for a change,” as The Rolling Stones might quip.

Sorry, Curt Schilling, If There’s a ‘Revolution’ It Will Be Blues Who Start It

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Not to sound too much like a political history nerd, but there IS a difference between a “civil war” and a “revolution.” What Curt Schilling believes should happen is a “civil war” while what Blues might do would be a “revolution.”

Reds are always talking about a National Divorce — which would cause a civil war — because 1) it’s the worst thing they can think of 2) they want to the opportunity to murder people like me with impunity.

Anyway.

The point is – “revolutions” tend to be center-Left in nature while what people like Curt Schilling want is a “civil war.”

I still don’t see why Schilling is so eager for a civil war — or whatever. MAGA is politically ascendant and MAGA just has to be patient and they will get everything want.

Unless there’s a revolution.

I’m Such A Storytelling Snob That I’m Struggling To Get Through ‘Tar’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I have very strict metrics for consuming a story and if the story doesn’t meet those metrics, I bounce. And, yet, I can’t just read my own writing all the time. If I’m going to be a well-rounded author, I have to consume someone ELSE’s story on occasion.

I’m trying to watch Tar, but I’m not having much success. It’s a really good movie and if I was 20 years younger, I probably would really enjoy it. But I’m an old coot now who has spent a few years obsessing over the finer points of storytelling and I find it overwrought and sort of meh.

Get to the point, people!

But, whatever. It IS a good movie. I think I’m going to have to get so drunk that I don’t care and just sit down and watch it without skipping 10 seconds forward TOO many times.

‘The Sprint’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Ok. I’m not going to make my first deadline of June 20th for wrapping up the Public Beta of my first novel. But I still can make a July 4th deadline for this momentous event if I hunker down and get to work.

So, starting today, I’m going to begin to line edit a pre-Public Beta version of the novel I have. I have a number of blank scenes I have to fill out. But not so many that I can’t finishing something by June 30th.

That will give me a few days to do some of the post-production things necessary to get the Public Beta into people’s hands in a way that makes me feel good.

Anyway, let’s rock.