Month: May 2023

One Machine To Rule Them

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

AI-thinker Robert Scoble suggested that one day we’ll defer even our governance to AI. I think this is very possible. In fact, I think ultimately humans could simply defer all decisions to AI to the point that AI takes over without a shot being fired.

As such, humanity won’t go out in a blaze of glory in some sort of “Judgement Day,” we’ll rather simply drift into the arms of a very paternalistic AI that makes all our decisions for us. We might have some sort of contract between Humans and our new AI overlords that is renewed every so often. But, in general, all of humanity will defer all of our major decisions to an AI (maybe an AGI after a hard Singularity?)

It’s easy to imagine a situation where we are so lazy that we wilfully give AI access to all of our WMD, and hell, even all police operations across the globe. We will do this because enough people come to see AI as “objective” that it starts to make a lot of sense to people that only an all-powerful AGI can properly manage the globe.

If you wanted to get really fanciful about things, you might even suggest that global capitalism might be replaced with some sort of techno-communism where the dream of everyone living according to their ability and according to their need might finally be reached without the whole genocide part of it.

But that’s really reaching.

And, yet, the key element remains — we’re so busy thinking that Skynet is going to blow us up that we totally miss the idea that the transition to a world dominated by AGI would be rather meh. It would start with contracts being written by non-Human actors and end with some sort of hazy world government run by AGI that pushes lazy Humans around because we’re all so busy smoking a bowl while playing video games in the metaverse that we don’t notice what is going on.

Scenes From A Failing Union

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I on occasion find myself talking to a conservative relative of mine. While I love them dearly, the two of us could not be more different. In fact, in some ways, we’re on the exact opposite ends of the political spectrum. So, talking to this person is an insight into “how the other half lives,” if you will.

Here are some first-blush things I’ve noticed.

First and foremost, the Republican nomination is Tucker Carlson’s to lose. Even though my relative is not really MAGA but rather “MAGA adjacent” when asked, they were all-in on voting for Carlson if he runs for the nomination. Carlson has all the ingredients of Trump in 2015-16 and pretty much all he has to do is throw his hat into the ring and he will go toe-to-toe with Trump. It would be easy for Carlson to paint Trump as a “loser” who has lost a number of elections for Republicans.

So, for me at least, it’s curious that we’re not hearing more about Carlson’s presidential ambitions.

The next thing I found interesting is how the Trans movement is used to juice the conservative base on conservative podcasts. My relative, in fact, said they were rather tired of that being the only thing that anyone on his conservative podcasts are talking about. The thing about the Trans movement, which I generally support, is it is too often used as a bludgeon by conservatives against moderates and centrists to sort of force the issue of “which side are you on?”

We’ve reach a point where there is absolutely no middle ground on ANY issue of the day. None. Either you’re all in for the Right or you’re all in for the Left. The center has not held. What makes this whole situation even worse is there is a lot of agitprop about the Trans movement being pushed by all these popular Right wing podcasts to the point that the whole issue is so muddled to the point that it’s difficult for anyone to get a handle on what is really going on. (Which, of course, is the whole point.)

Another thing I notice is how potent the Gay Scare is within Republican ranks. What’s more, it is clear that even with your run-of-the-mill conservative that the idea of the state enforcing a Christian morality on secular society is very, very popular. It’s a catch all solution for anything that conservatives don’t like or can’t explain any other way.

They don’t like gay people because it’s a “sin.” They hate any form of gun control, so they say we have a “mental health crisis” or we all just need more of the Good Lawd in our lives. They hate the right to chose because they believe life begins at conception, so they all all for squashing female agency, even though they, themselves say they “just want to be left alone.”

The list goes on.

But the key takeaway from my conversation is how my center-Left echo chamber no longer has any overlap with my relative’s center-Right echo chamber. None. We can’t even agree on the facts anymore. There are basic ideas that make the Right seethe with rage, even if they little no basis in reality.

It definitely seems to me that we’re careening towards the existential choice of autocracy or civil war starting in late 2024, early 2025 in the context of the 2024 election cycle.

Day 36: Flying Blind

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I continue to have a lot of existential angst over the idea that someone somewhere is going to steal a march on me. I worry that I’ll wake up at some point in the near future to the news that a movie, TV show or novel has been announced that has a premise close enough to what mine has that, lulz, I’m going to have to think up a new novel.

I only worry about this because I’ve had a really good scifi novel idea in my mind for some time and I’ve only just discovered that there is a whole series of scifi books devoted to a premise very similar to what I came up with. The only thing that connects the two is the premise. Everything else is different. Completely different.

But because everyone is a moron who wouldn’t look past the premise, I just don’t know if I feel like expending any more energy on the scifi concept because the moment I explain it to an agent they will say, “Oh, you mean, it’s just like…” Ugh. That’s just life.

I have two other scifi concepts that I can work on. But the idea that I spent so much energy on something that is just like something else really rattles my cage.

My other fear is the outline I gave a manuscript consultant is now in the hands of someone with the means, motive and opportunity to really fuck me over. But, I just don’t know. The more I think about fleshed out outline, the more I realize how bad it was. So, yes, someone with more talent than me could use it as a stepping off point, but all they would have is the general premise.

My interpretation of that premise is at this point so different than what was in that outline, but it’s possible that people would notice they were similar, but not so similar that there wouldn’t be room enough for both projects. Not that I wouldn’t be enraged if someone fucked me over by using that outline.

Jesus Christ.

Anyway. Once more unto the breach.

A National Divorce Would Be Just The Beginning

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing about a so-called National Divorce, even if it was reasonably clean and reasonably bloodless is it would be just the beginning of a protracted era of chaos in North America. The reason is simple — both sides of the political equation in now-united America need each other for political, social and economic reasons.

The moment Red and Blue America officially cleave into two, independent nations, the age-old dynamics of rival nations would kick in. Add to this that all metrics point to Red America becoming inward looking, religious and a lot poorer, suggests that any “National Divorce” would inevitably prompt a re-match of some sort.

Red America, facing growing poverty in the context of finally being able to establish white minority autocratic Christian rule would have every reason to want to reunite the country at some point soon after the initial National Divorce.

But I’m working on the absolute best case scenario. Any National Divorce would be messy and chaotic and probably be happening in the context of WW3 breaking out. What happens if, say, the DPRK decides to lob a few H-Bombs on Blue America during the process of a very blood divorce? Then what are we going to do?

It seems to me that any divorce, for any reason, would cause a civil war / revolution of some sort to a scale and impact not seen since the French Revolution. The whole world would rumble as it began to sink in to various hostile powers across the globe that they now had free reign to do whatever the fuck they wanted while America was busying eating itself.

The point is — I really hope we don’t have a civil war, for whatever reason. I’m growing comfortable with the other possible choice America may make in late 2024, early 2025: autocracy. At least if we slide peacefully into a MAGA-themed autocracy, it’s less likely that millions will die. Though, in all honesty, I do fear that it would be inevitable that some MAGA Pol Pot might appear who starts to round up all the “woke” people he can find and we end up with American Killing Fields.

Anyway. I’m always wrong. Hopefully we will someway manage to avoid either autocracy or civil war….but something pretty spectacular would have to happen.

Day 35: ‘Simpsons Did It’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I pride myself in being really creative, so I feel pretty distraught that one of the scifi novel ideas I have rolling around in my head is based on an already-used premise. The whole thing has kind of rattled my cage.

I’ve invested so much into gaming out the scenario that now that I realize I’m not all that original afterall, I feel rather sheepish. The two ideas are very different on their specifics, but their general conceits are identical to the point that it would be difficult to market my idea without everyone rolling their eyes and thinking it’s just like the novel already published.

Anyway, the novel I’ve been working on for years now is going really well. I just have to put in the work. I hope to throw myself back into writing no later than Sunday morning-afternoon.

Things are moving along so fast that I’m getting nervous / excited about what comes next and how I’m going to manage it. Not only am I about to move into the Beta Reader process, but I also will have to figure out what new novel I’m going to start working on while I wait for Beta Readers to finish the second draft.

As it stands, I’m either going to start working on the next novel in the projected six novel project, and or I’m going to start working on one of the OTHER scifi novel ideas I have rolling around in my head.

I’ve Noticed Something

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It seems as though American pop culture is in the midst of some sort of vibe shift. I’ve been listening to Ben Smith, formerly of BuzzFeed, go on his podcast book tour and I’ve noticed a few things from listening to all of his conversations asking him questions from different directions.

Smith makes it clear that he thinks we’re kind of between media eras at the moment. The thing he kept saying that caught my attention is that people have returned to reading The Drudge Report to “know what’s going on.”

I find that comment intriguing.

Before I continue, let me be clear that months go by before I actually go to a Website and read content. I get all of my information passively via Twitter or through reading the headlines of various email lists I’m subscribed to. And, what’s more, it’s clear that it’s very possible that generative AI is about to revolutionize the EVERYTHING, including journalism.

And, yet, there’s a little part of me that wonders if we’re overdue for a site that would have the personality of The Drudge Report — and serve a similar purpose — but would have a more modern and mass sensibility.

My vision of this site would be something in the tradition of Spy Magazine, Late Night With David Letterman and Gawker. It seems as though if you came out of the gate swinging with a unique, interesting take on the days news that was more than just links that you might — MIGHT — be able to recreate the magic of the snarky 2002-2004 era of the Web.

But it would have to be updated for modern audience expectations. You would have to have not just a blog you updated throughout the day, but a podcast or two as well. The window of opportunity for this venture is pretty small and closing fast because, well, luz, who knows how fast AI developments are going to go in the near term.

And you would have to have the resources to pull this off. So, it’s not like I could just do it on my own, no matter how much I am so delusional to try (if I had the resources to do so.)

But for the rise of AI and the metaverse, I would propose that conditions are there for a Gawker-like blog that was really aggressive in being a place where people would visit when they woke up — or got to work — to know What’s Going On.

And, yet, just as we’re overdue for a third wave of punk….I think my hunch while correct on paper just doesn’t make any business sense. The Web is mature. Apps are mature. AI and the metaverse are zooming towards us at an alarming rate.

So, lulz. My little dream is essentially 20 years too late. I need to go back t omy novel.

Day 34: Changing The Midpoint

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

During this minor pause in writing I’ve been doing the last day or so, something has occured to me — I need to change the event that marks the midpoint of the novel. Changing that event causes the over all novel to make a lot more sense given what I know of basic storytelling.

And, at the moment, changing that midpoint event doesn’t really require a lot of change in content afterwards. That might change as I actually get closer to that part of the novel. This happens all the time, changing elements of the novel in the abstract is very different than actually sit down to write it.

So, it’s possible when I’m staring at the midpoint to write it I may realize that I have to rework scenes a lot more than I might otherwise realize. But the clock is ticking and I need to stop spinning my wheels and start producing copy. I continue to feel pretty good about where things stand.

I think I still have an even chance of wrapping things up by around July 4th, probably the weekend before. Wish me luck.

The Existential Angst Of Being Blocked By Nick Denton On Twitter

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

They say never met your heroes and it’s pretty clear that I’m never going to meet Nick Denton, the founder of Gawker Media. I’m blocked by Denton on Twitter and I’m completely mortified by the fact. But, alas, I have to admit that he probably has a legitimate reason to do so.

There was a moment in my life when I was pretty obsessed with not just Mr. Denton but Gawker Media. That moment in time is long gone, but the consequences of me pinging Denton all the time on Twitter remains. This situation reminds me of how there was a very influential community publisher who gave me a chance during a dark period in my life…only to realize that I was completely bonkers.

And, yet, at the same time I feel I can only feel so bad about this situation. Denton has a strong reputation as something of a journalistic mentor to young reporters in New York City and if there’s one thing I’m not good at, it’s being mentored by someone.

Fuck that.

Any mentoring of someone involves a certain level of manipulation. And so not only am I too old to be mentored by, I hate being manipulated for any reason.

So, lulz. I suppose if I write a breakout hit novel and I get to be a smug Twitter liberal, maybe I’ll meet Denton at a cocktail party and convince him to unblock me.

AI’s Looming Disruption of Journalism

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It definitely seems as though we’re going through a digital Cambrian explosion. Almost every day, it seems as though AI has found a new niche to exploit. Everything from screenwriting, to photography to potentially movies themselves be totally, dramatically disrupted by AI.

It makes me wonder how AI might revolutionize journalism. This is question comes up as journalism is at something of a crossroads. I, for one, get all of my information passively through Twitter. Even though I love magazines and newspapers, I rarely, if ever, actually read any of them either in print or online. I’ve been listening to Ben Smith, formerly of BuzzFeed, go on his podcast book tour, I am reminded that we’re kind of in a liminal moment in modern journalism.

But how would AI disrupt journalism if, to date, LLMs are rather passive. It seems as though possible at some point, AI might reach a point where you could hook it up to a communication system so the AI could be assigned a story by an editor. Then, the AI would shoot out emails, make phone calls, the whole shebang.

Even though being a journalist was really hard for me because I have the wrong personality, the hard part of being a journalist is the gathering of information. If you could design a pro-active LLM that could carry on a human-like conversation on the phone or via email, then, well, there you go, about 90% of journalists would be out of a job.

All that would be left is editors and people who have to physically in a room with someone for, say, spot news. And those jobs would linger until you could figure out a way to put your AI into the body of android who could physically go to a Congressional scrum, say.

I guess the issue for me is we may need to reimagine the very idea of what journalism is. It could be that either there will be some sort of comprehensive carveout regulation things like journalist or lawyer, or whatever HAS to be done by a human, or we face the idea that a Universal Basic Income may be our inevitable future.

‘Digital Darwinism’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m growing alarmed at the prospect that just as the discovery of evolution lead to Social Darwinism and, as such Nazism, it seems possible the darkener element of MAGA might fuse with the rise of AI.

My fear is that because humans are lazy and have a natural inclination to “triangulate” with AIs, there will come a point when MAGA Nazi will use AI as validation for God only know what. We already have a situation where fucking fascist cocksuckers get really worked up with there are guardrails on AI. They want AI to be as racist, misogynistic and bigoted as they are.

And they can get really upset if they don’t get what they want. They call any form of guardrail on AI as “woke.” America is already careening towards a fascist one party state that establishes white Christian minority rule. It seems possible that if that is the new reality of America that our new autocratic overlords might throw AI into the mix and defer to AI in their efforts to justify genocide.

If you have “unwoke” AI established as the only “objective” outcome of that the state will allow, then, oh boy, are we fucked. I only raise this as a possibility because it definitely seems as though we’re rushing towards a perfect storm of a Petite Singularity and the Fourth Turning starting in late 2024, early 2025.

Anyway. I’m really worried about the unintended consequences of the intersection of AI and society. Things could get dark.