by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
I don’t know what to tell you, folks. The news that a MAGA Federal judge has banned the use of one of the two abortion pills is extremely alarming on a macro historical basis. I say this because at its heart, abortion is an economic issue and it’s could be the head of the spear of a National Divorce in late 2024, early 2025.
It’s the economic nature of abortion that makes it different than all the other corrosive centrifugal forces tearing America apart which are pretty much just “vibes.” Abortion deals with the economic and bodily agency of 51% of the population and how it’s dealt with is a very clear delineation between a Red and Blue State.
But it’s unlikely that abortion, unto itself, would spark a National Divorce and, as such a Second American Civil War. And, yet, MAGA being so absolute on the issue of banning abortion on the national level, ultimately with no exceptions, is yet another stressor on the politics of America.
At the moment, the issues of abortion, gun control and to a lesser extent the Trans movement are causing a very clear delineation between Red and Blue. This is happening to the point where superficially, you could even lull yourself into a false sense of security when it came to the idea that you could pull of a National Divorce peacefully.
This idea collapses, however, when you realize that for every California, you have three or four states with a far more muddled political situation. The moment you have a secession crisis, the issue of how Texas is shifting Blue long term suddenly becomes VERY VERY important. Meanwhile, states like Virginia which are two states, one Red, one Blue fused together that hate each other also become a real problem.
It would be a state like Virginia that would have the most to lose in a National Divorce (civil war) because it would collapse into rival camps trying to decide on the field of battle what could not be decided politically: is it a Blue or Red State? Probably what would happen is after a really nasty intra-state civil war, Virginia would be split into two, with the rural parts of the state in Red America and the metropolitan areas in Blue America.
And, wait, it gets worse!
So, now we have two dueling judicial rulings on abortion. It goes to SCOTUS and ta-da MAGA wins.
I still am not prepared to believe we’re going to have a Second American Civil War because of the passions of the 2024 election — it’s just too likely that we’re going to shamble into autocracy. And, yet, with ding-dong Trump floating around, lurking in the historical shadows….anything is possible.
