by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
There’s a guy I know through Twitter who assures me that all my hysterical fears about the possibility of either autocracy or civil war coming to America starting in late 2024, early 2025 are just that — hysterical fears. He makes the very cogent point that demographically, MAGA is on the losing side of history and it’s inevitable that the whole fascist American Nazi project will eventually fade into oblivion.
I constantly tell him I hope he’s right — and I really do.
And, yet.
The key thing I worry about is MAGA — KNOWS — that he’s right and, as such, they want to game the system so they can at least attempt to establish permanent white minority rule where the usual rules of a liberal western democracy don’t apply anymore. MAGA wants America to be an illiberal democracy so it just doesn’t matter the demographic situation — white Christians will always, always, be in control of the United States.
My concern is — would that transition into autocratic white Christian minority rule be peaceful? If Ron “Unfrozen Caveman Lawyer” DeSantis is the Republican nominee, then, yes. It will be peaceful. He will become president, become America’s Putin and that will be that. Gradually, wealthy, smug Twitter liberals will flee the country, leaving we Poors to our own devices.
But there is the issue of Trump.
Trump is such a strange historical figure that he could, unto himself, cause the United States to descend into civil war / revolution because he bungles the otherwise peaceful transition into autocracy. It could happen in a number of different ways.
It could happen when Trump wins the 2024 election and his policies are so radical and fascist that Blue States leave the Union because they refuse to bend a knee to autocratic MAGA Nazism. Meanwhile, if he LOSES, he could start a civil war when he demands Red States leave the Union so he can be the “rightful” president of a new neo-Confederate States of America.
A lot of any potential secession crisis starting in late 2024, early 2025 would be how ripe states like Texas, South Carolina, Arizona and Florida are to leave the Union should Trump begin to rant about how Reds need their own nation if he loses.
Meanwhile, I’m at a loss to tell you if a state like California would really leave the Union if it became clear that Trump’s second term would be so radical that the state would feel it had no choice but to secede. It could be that, lulz, it’s just not collective temperament of Blues to do such a thing when they can just mass-migrate out of the country.
One thing I would suggest you keep an eye on — calls for a Constitutional Convention on the part of MAGA. This idea is floating around the Far Right, where Trump usually gets his “best” ideas and, as such, it’s entirely possible that he may spook Blue states by demanding one be called in his second term. And, remember, DeSantis is also really interested in the movement to call up a Constitutional Convention.
