by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
Would it be Blues or Reds who secede?
I still believe at the moment that if there is a civil war, it will happen when Blue States refuse to bend a knee to autocratic MAGA Nazi fascism. But, I suppose, there are a few scenarios you could game out where it’s Reds. The only one I can think of off the top of my head is Trump loses the GQP nomination, jumps to the Patriot Party and then when he loses, demands Red States leave the Union and the take him up on it.
How bad will it get in Virginia, Georgia and Texas?
Of all the places that would suffer the most because of a civil war, I think Virginia is top of the list. At least in the context of a ground war. The state is really two states fused together who hate each other and given that it has a MAGA-lite governor at the moment, I could see him throwing his lot with the Reds and the urban, more populated parts of the state balking at this decision and a massive Yugoslavia-like intra-state civil war breaking out where many, many people die for no damn reason. Other states that could have real problems are Georgia (because of Atlanta) and Texas (because on the ground the state is slowly shifting blue.) Honorable mention is Michigan where apparently a lot of far, far right people are itching to stage a coup.
Would WMD be used?
I think it goes without saying that if the United States buckles into civil war that a lot of WMD will be seized by both sides and that will be where a lot of people die. A lot. A horrific amount. When you have both sides throwing tactical nukes at each other then, oh boy.
What about race?
On paper, at least, the African American community in the Deep South should rebell in massive numbers if MAGA Republicans there decide to go full Nazi in the context of a Second American Civil War. But, lulz, who knows. It’s definitely something to worry about whenever you think about a National Divorce. The current political stalemate in the Deep South would be overturned if there was a civil war, with both sides growing more radical in their expectations and, as such, trying to settle with violence what they weren’t able to with politics.
Would outside nations get involved?
The moment the United States is too preoccupied with blowing itself up to keep the post-WW2 order in line, WW3 is probably going to break out and a number of America’s enemies will take advantage of this unprecedented situation. My big worry is the DPRK might start throwing H-bombs our way in a belief that it could finish what any civil war might have started.
Would mission creep redraw the political map of North America?
Just as the US would have gotten involved in any Canadian civil war had Quebec left that nation, so, too, will both Mexico and Canada probably get involved in any American civil war. And that doesn’t even begin to address how NATO and maybe even China and Russia might be drawn into the conflict.
How long would a Second American Civil War last?
A lot depends on what the war aims were of both sides. I think, in real terms, if Blues simply want to leave the Union that any war could potentially be short but devastating. But if there is mission creep and there’s war over who gets to unite North America under the banner of a new nation, then, well, gulp, we’re talking closer to the typical 5 or so years.
