by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
Now that we’re in 2023, I find myself thinking about how likely it is that we may, in fact, have a Second American Civil War because of the passions of the 2024 presidential cycle. I continue to wrack my mind as to what I could possibly be getting wrong about the various dystopian hellscape scenarios that I’ve managed to come up with.
I continue to believe that if a 2ACW happens, it’s going to happen because Blue States refuse to bend a knee to ascendant Red States. As much as Reds want to murder people like me in cold blood using the rules of war, not law, in the end, they really don’t have any reason to start a civil war — they’re going to get everything they want via regular old dysfunctional politics.
It seems to me there are a number of milestones we still have to reach before we have a better sense of how things are going to sort out in late 2024, early 2025 between Election Day and Certification Day. We still don’t know if Trump is going to ever be held legally accountable for his massive, on-going crime spree. If he is indicted, then likelihood that he will be the 2024 Republican nominee grows significantly.
Additionally, there is the issue of how SCOTUS will rule on the “Independent Legislature” concept. If they give individual states significantly more leeway when it comes to the practical administration of elections that could very well be the United States striking an iceberg. It won’t be obvious at first, but when the time comes, the MAGA state legislatures of swing states might feel like they could step in and appoint their own electors, damn the will of the people. We’re not a democracy after all, right you fucking MAGA cocksuckers?
The last issue, the one that could really decide America’s fate is that of the debt ceiling. If MAGA Republicans in the House push America in to its first-ever default, then, well, the conditions are there for MAGA — and Trump — to come roaring back in 2024. They won’t even have to cheat to win, but Trump’s second term agenda will be so fucking radical that that, unto itself, could force the hand of Blue States and provoke a National Divorce, which, in turn would cause a Second American Civil War.
Then, of course, there are a few wildcards that I simply can’t game out one way or another. The issue of how old Biden is weighs on my mind a great deal. Harris is very untested and it would be a massive clusterfuck if Biden shuffled off this mortal coil at just the wrong moment in the post-election process. You thought 2020 was bad with the “Stop The Steal” bullshit, just imagine Biden’s Electors being up for grabs and Trump (or someone like him) ranting about how they should vote for him “for the sake of the nation.”
Anyway, I’m always wrong. It’s very possible that we’ll somehow muddle through the 2024 election and all my doom and gloom will look very foolish. But even if that is the case, there continue to be some significant tectonic issues with the American political system that we’re going to be confronted with sooner or later.
