by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
I find the idea that Trump, who nearly destroyed American democracy specifically because of his own vanity, will ultimately fold like a house of cards if he loses the 2024 Republican nomination to Ron DeSantis.
I read his piece on this idea and what he suggests is, in fact, compelling. Trump does have a history of unexpecting folding when he hasn’t gotten what he wanted.
Here’s what Jonathan Chait has to say on the subject:
More important, it would be uncharacteristic for Trump to allow his grudges to get in the way of his clear self-interest. Trump does lash out wildly at anybody who disrespects him, but he also turns on a dime and makes friends with his former enemies. You can see this pattern in the way he lashed out at the likes of Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio before reconciling on the basis of mutual interest.
What interests would Trump have in common with DeSantis? For one thing, DeSantis could offer Trump legal protection — either pardons or immunity from additional prosecution. Second, DeSantis already commands a massive fundraising network, and as the Republican nominee, he would hold enormous power over various revenue streams around the party, ranging from its scam PACs to its media outlets. DeSantis would be in a position to make sure Trump is very well compensated in return for an endorsement.
I suppose all of what Chait posits is credible, and, yet, Trump continues to slide into some form of deranged dementia. I’m not 100% sure that Trump is still a “rational actor.” As such, it seems possible that Trump could be so filled with narcissistic rage over losing the nomination to DeSantis that he runs under the Patriot Party rubric and splits the conservative vote to the point that a Democrat is able to win again in 2024.
But I’m not prepared to assume that it is even possible for Trump to lose the nomination. The base still loves ding-dong Trump because he continues to be an avatar for white Christian rage about how Blue states use soft power to make them feel bad for…being white Christians.
I suppose what I’m trying to say is — I wouldn’t be so sure to assume anything about malignant ding-dong Trump’s willingness to allow DeSantis to be the Republican nominee, even if he would assure he would get legal protection. I would suggest that January 6th may have been a lot more significant in Trump’s move towards being a very lazy autocrat than we might think.
In other words, if Trump is willing to destroy American democracy out of sheer vanity, there’s no reason to believe he wouldn’t at least seriously entertain the idea of destroying the Republican Party’s for the same reason. Trump is a fighter and I’m no so sure he has the complex abstract comprehension necessary to bow a knee to DeSantis in the short term for the long-term payback of not going to jail.
Trump’s political views are more of a grunt. The only thing that negates how dangerous he is, is a combination of laziness and incompetence. So, what comes across as Trump being all rhetoric is really that Trump just isn’t a “great man” like Hitler, but just an idiot ding-dong avtar for white Christian rage.
So, I dunno. I just won’t make any hard and fast predictions at the moment about Trump, the Republican Party and Ron DeSantis. Here’s why — logically, Trump would have indicted Hunter Biden in spring – summer 2020. Logically, Trump would have stolen the 2020 election well before January 6th. But….he didn’t do it. He waited until the very, very, very,very last moment in the process to try to steal the 2020 election.
As such, I have a wait and see approach. It could go either way. We won’t know until it happens.
