Month: September 2022

The Grift Not Taken

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

In hindsight, I left a lot and I mean A LOT of money on the table when I decided I fucking hated what Trump stood for. What’s more, because of my personal history, I would have a huge built-in group of friends who would be very pleased if I was a fucking MAGA Republican fascist.

I say this because I can tell from my Webstats that there is still an insatiable demand from MAGA Republican fascists for content that fits within their media narrative. And their standards are so low that even a idiot like me could probably have found some success as a MAGA Republican fascist “thought leader.”

And it’s well established that Trump loves positive attention so much that I would be writing books and having lunch with the malignant dingus himself if I had gone down that path. It’s all very surreal.

I suppose a lot of why I didn’t go that path is I went to college. Which, of course, is why fucking MAGA Republican fascists hate education so much. They know the more ignorant people are, the more likely they are to succumb to the MAGA Republican fascist mentality.

We all may be Antifa before it’s over with.

Anyway, the point of all of this is this is situation is going to grow more and more severe now that we’re careening toward autocracy or civil war. If we have a civil war, I’m probably going to join millions of other Americans who become domestic political refugees. If we become an autocracy, I’m probably going to have to figure out how to escape ICE that will start to “vanish” people.

All I can say is, good luck. I’ve picked my side, have you?

The Nightmare Scenario

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

We apparently are in the midst of the Rule of Three when it comes to major political figures dying and, as such, my mind turns to Biden. He’s really old and, sad to say, it’s well within the realm of possibility that he may not live through his first term.

As such, we have to take seriously the idea that the United States is headed for a truly nightmarish political situation. If we find ourselves with both a President Harris and a Republican Congress, the likelihood of a Speaker Trump grows exponentially.

With just one, rather than two heartbeats between Trump and being president again, the temptation might be just too much for him. It’s very, very possible that because of how fucked up American politics is at the moment, that the Senate simply could not, would not be able to name a replacement veep.

Then, you have a situation where malignant dingus Trump could very well be Speaker and when the inevitable impeachment of President Harris goes to the Senate, he begins to rant — at great length — about how Red States should leave the Union if she’s not convicted.

Talk about a Constitutional Crisis!

But, I have to note that I always, always overestimate Trump. He’s such an idiot and lacks any form of abstract thought ability that such an obvious and diabolical idea may be just too complex for him to comprehend. But it definitely is something to think about.

Was It Something I Said?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I have a theory that goes something like this. Two types of people find acceptance in this world. People who are very normal and people who are very weird. If you’re normal, then, lulz, everyone likes you. Meanwhile, if you’re very, very weird, you’re always going to find people who are just as weird as you are and then you have a protective bubble from surrounding yourself with freaky weirdos.

But then there are people like me.

I’m an extreme extrovert and I have no idea what I’m doing with my life. I’m a pretty good conversationalist — or at least like to think so — but I just don’t know how to act in a “normal” way that fits into what people I should act.

I bring this up because I continue to feel a great deal of angst about how all these manuscript consultants that I’ve spoken to about this novel project I’m working on obviously have one interaction with me and think, “I don’t want anything to do with that guy.”

It’s very unsettling because it raises the prospect that there’s some sort of mysterious culture clash between myself and the literary world. It makes me fear that I could write a really good pop novel and yet still fail, not because of my writing but because literary types — like literary agents — will simply think I’m too weird once they inevitably do due diligence on me.

This is really causing me a lot of angst at the moment. I hate this because it goes back to how I’m too old to change who I am. The worst thing that anyone else said about me is that I’m a “delusional jerk with a good heart.” I review in my mind what one manuscript consultant said during one of our two Zoom calls and I think she was afraid I lived near her and was going to be some sort of obsessive stalker or something.

That kind of hurts my feelings. I generally mean well, wear my heart on my sleeve and am honest to a fault. And yet apparently to some (all?) literary types I’m a deranged psychopath to be avoided at all costs.

This is all very disheartening. It’s these type of problems that weirdos who aren’t weird enough to have weird friends have to deal with.

Will Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin Be President One Day?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing about Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin is, on paper at least, he has a pretty good shot at being a serious — if dark horse — candidate for president in 2024. But there are a lot of problems with this on a practical basis.

If this was 20 years ago, then Youngkin would have a pretty good shot at being president by going the successful George W. Bush route — run on empty, vacuous platitudes, not really saying anything and then once in office being a lot more conservative than any of us expected.

But this isn’t 2000. And there is the issue of Trump standing in the way. So, Youngkin’s best bet at this point is to be Trump’s veep then succeed the orange dingus should he shuffle off this mortal coil during his radical second term. But, by definition, even someone as bland as Youngkin would be America’s first autocrat for no other reason than our democratic norms have been destroyed to the point that ANY Republican president will be an autocrat.

This is all part of a broader problem with the United States. The positions of the two sides have hardened to the point that there is no middle ground. Pick a side or a side will be chosen for you.

MAGA Vs. The ‘Woke Cancel Culture Mob’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

In my discussions with my Traditionalist relatives, one thing that is at the forefront of their minds is the idea that their lives will be ruined just because they’re conservative. Whenever I point out that that is “soft” power as opposed to the “hard” power that MAGA is rapidly accumulating, all I get is a hand wave.

In their minds, the issue is settled — the all powerful Left has all the power and it’s a struggle for oppressed MAGA people to survive without being “canceled” just because they don’t follow the media narrative. A prime example of this thinking is what has happened to J.K. Rowling over her anti-trans stance. (Out of spite, I’ve bought her latest self-indulgent book for no other reason than I want to see how she pulls off talking about herself for 1,000 pages.)

This is very alarming to me. It sets up a false equivalency that is very dangerous and corrosive. And, I think, it says more about how the United States is careening towards autocracy or civil war at some point between now and, say, spring of 2025. Something’s gotta give.

But there doesn’t seem to be much we can do about this particular situation. The sides have hardened to the point that there’s just no point in trying to clear up the difference between hard and soft power. White Christian (men) have their talking points and their ideology and that’s that.

The thing we don’t know is the endgame. Are white Christian (men) all talk, or will there reach a point when they’re going to follow MAGA Republicans off the cliff into political violence? It’s a forgone conclusion at this point that the United States is going to become an autocracy unless we have a civil war during the final transition.

Don’t know what to tell you. We’re on our own. The era of pining the entire fate of the United States on “hope” that things will work out is over. Time to prepare for something dramatic happening at some point between now and spring 2025.

The Central Political Issue Facing Modern America — How Real Is The MAGA Republican Threat of Political Violence?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As the United States spins out of control, the thing I keep wondering about is how serious the frothy and violent rhetoric coming from MAGA Republicans really is. Are they really willing to start murdering people like me in cold blood if they don’t get what they want?

This is a very complicated issue for a number of reasons. Trump has been spewing violent rhetoric for years now and, for the most part, other than January 6th there hasn’t been all that much actual political violence in the United States. I keep suggesting that if Trump went transactional and demanded, say, Red states leave the Union that we might have a civil war but that theory to date has, thankfully, remained untested.

So I think some of what we’re seeing is MAGA Republicans are so angry at liberals that they definitely have political violence on the brain — but they don’t want to be held criminally accountable. They dream of running around, murdering liberals with their AR-15s….and getting away with it. They want to murder people like me, but not enough to risk going to prison for her.

That’s why they keep searching for “when does the civil war start” and coming to this Website with all my dark, dystopian hellscape scenarios.

And, what’s more, I still believe that ultimately it will be Blues, not Reds who start any civil war, should there be one. I say this because Blues have a lot more reason to start a civil war than Reds do. Reds want a civil war because they’re so blinded by grievance that they don’t realize they are politically ascendant. Blues, meanwhile, may wake up at some point in late 2024, early 2025 and realize they have no choice but to leave the Union at the state level.

I hope I’m wrong. I don’t want any violence of any sort. But it’s all definitely something to think about.

Taking A Blue ‘National Divorce’ Seriously

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I hate violence, but it’s growing more and more clear that MAGA is hellbent on destroying American democracy and forcing Blue States to “bend a knee” to their autocratic plans. As such, this is a very extreme situation and Blues have to stop deluding themselves into thinking “hope” is going to do them any good. Trump is above the law and always will be. And, ultimately, he will will cheat to become POTUS again, probably via the bogus “Independent Legislature” concept that SCOTUS is inevitably going to validate between now and 2024.

So, what does all of this mean?

It means that there is no other choice for Blue States but to begin to make preparations for secession. It brings me no joy to propose this, but I don’t see any other solution. The very dynamic that led slaves states to attempt to leave the Union in 1860 is at play today. Just like how slaves states felt the abolition movement was ascendant and they had no other choice but to leave the Union, so, too, do Blues face a similar situation.

I propose this in the abstract, as a way to get people to take seriously how dire things are in the United State — and its democracy — at the moment. There would be no assurances that any such attempt at a National Divorce would work, there is the U.S. Military to think about — but we have to gird our loins for a severe political crisis out of our control in late 2024, early 2025.

We all may be Antifia before it’s over with.

The rise of autocratic will slam up against Americans’ self-perception as to what America is and, as such, that will be the point when we either have a National Divorce and civil war or we simply become just another autocracy. Trump’s second term will be extremely radical to the point that a lot of my most hysterical fears will become a reality.

As such, Blues have to begin to game out how we might go through a National Divorce and if American democracy is worth the cost. Any American National Divorce would be a massive fucking clusterfuck that would make the First American Civil War — and even WW2 — pale in comparison. But the case could be made that WW3 will happen anyway if America became a MAGA-themed autocracy, so it’s better to at least to attempt to save American democracy in the Blue portions of the country.

I don’t want a civil war. I don’t want violence of any sort. But the idea of a civil war is growing less and less abstract by the moment. We should plan accordingly.

‘Bend A Knee’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

A number of alarming developments have happened of late that slightly adjust my thoughts on the possibility that the United States might collapse into civil war.

One of them is how Judge Cannon — hand picked by dingus Trump — is granting his request for a Special Master. This is an easy-to-understand problem that only serves to rile up Blues. It’s possible — but not probable — that it may dawn on Blues that Reds are not only ascendant, but also have corrupted the administration of justice to the point that Trump really is above the law.

The other ominous development is the fact that SCOTUS has agreed to weigh in on the dumb “independent legislature” concept which, as I understand it, would officially disconnect the will of the people from selecting Electors. As such, a MAGA legislature could step in and appoint Trump electors, even if he otherwise lost the state in a landslide.

Combine these two things and the idea that the prospect of a very radical second Trump administration might be enough for Blue States — probably starting with California — to begin to leave the Union becomes a very real possibility.

Of course, it’s at least possible that Trump on a personal basis could start a civil war earlier than that by going transactional and demanding Red States leave the Union specifically to save his own sorry ass from going to prison. That scenario, while juicy, is extremely unlikely for no other reason than Trump lacks the abstract thinking ability necessary to think up something so diabolical.

But the issue remains — the United States is far less stable than we’re will to admit to ourselves. And I continue to believe that if there is any sort of civil war, it will happen because Blues refuse to bend a knee to MAGA fascism.

Kathy Griffin Is Right (Sorta)

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

So, Kathy Griffin has gotten in trouble, again, this time for suggesting a vote for Republicans this fall is a vote for “civil war.” Well, she’s right. Sorta. There are no assurances one way or another that we’re going to have a civil war, but if Republicans gain control of Congress this fall, the likelihood of a civil war definitely does increase significantly.

I say this because the United States is very unstable right now and pretty much any outcome this fall is only going to make matters worse. If Republicans win the House, then there’s a chance of Speaker Trump. Meanwhile, if they lose, there’s a chance of severe political violence because they didn’t get what they wanted.

Anyway, the point is — pray. Things are growing dark in America and are only going to get worse as the days progress. There’s not much we can do, though. We’ve collectively given up and we just don’t have the political will to avoid autocracy or civil war.

We’ve Given Up

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It definitely seems as though the United States has passed the Event Horizon for the existential choice of autocracy or civil war. While I suppose it’s possible we might end up with a military junta, it’s clear that the America we’ve come to assume would always been there is fading fast.

All the conditions are there for a dramatic shift in the political life in what was formerly the wealthiest, most stable democracy in the world. Something’s gotta give. Either we have a civil war and bomb ourselves into oblivion, or Blues bend a knee to fascist tyranny and that, as they say, is that.

At the moment, at least, I just don’t think Blues have it in them to put up much of a fight. There may be a lot of gnashing of teeth as we slip into autocracy, but, in the end, it will all be a lulz. The reason is simple — the people who would be most likely to lead a Blue attempt at a National Divorce, wealthy liberals, are far more likely to just leave the country.

And, what’s more, it’s just not the temperament of Blues to do something so passionate and radical as to leave the Union on the state level. Of course, there remains the wildcard of Trump. He could, on a personal level, cause a civil war one way or another if he either goes transactional or his second term policies are just so radical that he pushes the nation to the breaking point.

But if something happens to Trump politically and, say, Ron DeSantis is the GQP 2024 nominee, then, yeah, we’re just going to become an autocracy. Things like the shift to the Right on the part of CNN will accelerate to the point that we’re all going to have to use the BBC using VPN to know what the fuck is really going on in the country.

Or, put another way, the United States is in transition on a political level and it’s an open question what we’re transitioning into.