by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
I’m a novice student of history and so here some idea about what history can tell us about what a Second American Civil War might be like in the United States should it start in late 2024, early 2025.
Military Junta
What we have to understand is we may never get to the National Divorce part of any severe political crisis that happens as a part of Certification Crisis in late 2024, early 2025. It could be that the U.S. Military will step in and run the country. This is one possible reaction to, say, California deciding to leave the Union when it’s clear that MAGA Republicans have stolen the 2024 election. Of course, California might also leave the Union if Trump’s second term is obviously going to be extremely radical and autocratic.
California
If we actually do have a National Divorce, then whatever California decides to do will be crucial to the course of the war. California might just decide leave the Union and that’s it. It might just want to be its own independent nation and have no more interest in the United States. With the biggest economy and population of the Union what it decides to do will have a great sway on the course of any war. If, when it becomes clear that a National Divorce is going to happen with Blues serving the papers, it’s possible that California may leave the Union in conjunction with a number of other Blue states. That would give Blues a fighting chance of winning the war — if their war aims are just to be their own nation.
Radicalization
One issue that might force the hand of Blue America could be the plight of African Americans in the Deep South. It’s the Deep South where fucking Nazi MAGA people might flip out and start to commit atrocities against African Americans. That would cause a number of different things to happen. One would be something akin to a race war. Also, a huge flow of African Americans out of Trumplandia who would be fleeing persecution. Such events might force the hand of Blue America, causing something akin to mission creep. Blue America’s war aims might shift from simply starting their own nation to actually defeating Trumplandia altogether.
Domestic Political Refugees
It will become clear that we’re going to have a National Divorce when Blues in Red states and Reds in Blue states being to flee en mass because they’re afraid for their personal safety. That will be one of the last things to indicate that things are about to get really, really bad.
Liberal Brain Drain
Another thing that will happen is wealthy liberals, no matter what happens — autocracy or civil war — will flee the country in the millions. This will probably change world culture in a massive way as American liberal ideals began to be pumped into the cultures of nations around the world. If enough wealthy liberals flee the country, this could cause some unexpected places around the world to see a significant change in their culture, politics and economy. I mean, if a few hundred thousand extra American flee to, say, the Philippines because they speak English and there’s a low cost of living, well, that’s going to change a lot there. And it could be that even places like Argentina might befit from an huge influx of wealthy, well educated Americans.
