by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
Here are the key issues facing the United States right now. How they play out will be key to deciding America’s ultimate fate between now and, say, spring 2025.
Biden’s Fate
This is crucial and yet extremely difficult to game out. Biden is old as hell and, yet, he’s very spry. So, there’s no reason to think he can’t run again in 2024. It’s very likely any re-election he might win will be stolen from him, but there’s a big difference between a USA without a veep and one with one. So, I don’t know. It’s very much up in the air.
2022 Midterms
If the Republicans win the House — which historically, they should, then the mood of the country is going to change dramatically. Suddenly, the bonkers Insurrectionists who tried to stage a coup on January 6th will have access to political power again and they’re going to do everything in their power to destroy what is left of American democracy. Of course, there is the chance that they lose and they go completely insane, blowing shit up because of the Deep State, yadda, yadda, yadda. The point is — this fall and winter will be very bumpy, no matter what.
Speaker Trump
There is a non-zero chance that Trump will be coaxed into becoming Speaker of the House should Republicans take over the House. I see this being a lot more likely if something has happened to Biden and Trump would being Speaker as a chance to somehow weasel his way back into the presidency early. Regardless, a Speaker Trump would be very much something you would expect in a failing Republic that is transitioning into autocracy.
Impeachment Mania
If Republicans do take the House, for two years, the Senate isn’t going to do anything but sit as an impeachment jury. MAGA Republicans are going to impeach at least three, maybe more people in the Biden Administration. And maybe more than once! Because of MAGA orthodoxy, Biden might accidently get impeached the first time, simply because Republicans will be so excited when someone on the first day of their control puts a impeachment resolution before them. Biden’s first impeachment will probably have something to do with the “border crisis” or Hunter Biden or some combination of the two. Then there would be a move to impeach Biden AGAIN simply out of spite so Republicans could, ex post facto, say that the fact that Trump was impeached twice is no big deal — all the while also saying that Biden being impeached twice is The Worst Thing To Ever Happen.
‘Independent Legislature”
I think I’m pretty safe in saying that our MAGA SCOTUS is going to rule in favor of the bonkers “independent legislature” idea concept which would totally unmoor the will of the people from who actually is elected POTUS. This will be huge in late 2024, early 2025 when we careen towards a political crisis not seen since the end of the Civil War.
Trump’s Veep
At the moment, Trump is well on his way to become the 2024 Republican nominee. He has successfully warp our legal and political systems to the point that he’s above the law and always will be. A combination of us not having the political will to address his cancer and everyone being afraid of him have come together to make Trump the GQP primary. It’s not who will be the nominee at this point that’s important, but who he picks as his veep. Trump is so crazy that he could pretty much pick anyone. I suppose it’s possible that he might make a truce with Ron DeSantis — who would be our first autocratic whenever Trump left office. Or he might even go for someone as bland and vacuous as Glenn Youngkin. who would also be our first autocrat, given the chance. But Trump is so nuts that I fear that as a form of insurance Trump might pick someone like Mike Flynn as way to lock in the MAGA Republican base absolutely.
“Bend a Knee”
Then, there is the real issue of our future — when the time comes, will Blue States “bend a knee” to the autocratic fascist MAGA Republicans or will there be a civil war as part of a National Divorce? I honestly don’t know. It could go either way. It could be that a few million wealthy liberals decamp to places all over the globe rather than face the prospect of fascist America. Or it’s possible that Blue States will leave the Union and we’ll have a civil war. It really could go either way.
