Month: June 2022

Tough Love For Blues

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I hate to break it to Blues, but the era of anger and hope is over. Now is the era of preparation. Either you’re willing to risk your life and scared honor in the real world, or shut the fuck up. I see this all over the place within my center-Left Twitter echo chamber. A lot of people have a lot of fantastical quick fixes to a problem that has been 50 years in the making.

If the United States was a functioning democracy — which it isn’t — this would all be part of a 50 year cycle that would ultimately see us begin to swing back towards a progressive era. But as the January 6th insurrection proves, we’re an anocracy now and, as such, rather than begin to drift back towards passing the Leftist agenda, we’re either going to become an autocracy or have a civil war.

Call it the 4th Turning or the Great Reset, that’s what’s going on.

And as part of that, no amount of mental masturbation on social media is going to change that particular existential choice. What’s more, MAGA New Right thought leaders are actively working to sabotage the ability of Blues to get what they want through voting. Steve K. Bannon wants to establish permanent white autocratic rule by corrupting the administration of elections to the point that it will become clear that voting doesn’t work and, the thinking goes, Blues will stop voting and that will be that.

I’m not advocating violence in any way. I’m a man of peace and ideas. But I would suggest that if you’re a Blue that you take the next to two or three years to take a long hard look at what you believe in and what you’re actually willing to risk in the real world.

SCOTUS isn’t going to be reformed. The administration of elections will become so corrupt that voting is meaningless. The MAGA New Right will lie, cheat and steal to acquire and maintain power….in the real world. They’re passionate, organized and willing to do the real world hard work necessary to get what they want.

Meanwhile, it seems like the Blue leadership is way too busy being Very Online, smelling their own farts and figuring out how to appease the MAGA New Right fascists to they can somehow, someway bridge a gap that the Right doesn’t want bridged.

There is no hope. American politics has collapsed. There is no middle ground. The MAGA New Right is totally reactionary and politically bloodthirsty to the point that they will stop at nothing to get what they want — power.

Blues are going to get suckerpunched in 2024 – 2025 and that will be that. We will slip peacefully into autocracy and gradually become no matter than Hungary, Turkey or Russia.

Second Draft Angst

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m now transitioning from the first to second daft and things are going well. But I’m also beginning to have a growing sense of angst as to what I’m going to do once I finish the second draft and start looking for beta readers.

Not only does no one like me, I have no friends and no money. So, I’m struggling to figure out how I’m going to find anyone to read my second draft all the way through when the time comes. I’m probably going to have to pay someone to do it. I’m very poor and have a limited amount of time to wrap all of this up (at least in my mind) so…I don’t know.

Now, I did see a piece of advice about this matter recent that made a lot of sense — if you need beta readers, start looking into being a beta reader. That’s the best way to find someone to read your copy — be the person reading their copy.

But this is a lot of fun. This controlled chaos is a lot like what I went through during the good olde days of ROKon Magazine. If you want to be very charitable, you would say that despite how whacked out that whole situation was, at the time I was able to display the leadership necessary to grow the magazine to the point that it got before everything collapsed….because of my personal foibles.

Anyway, I’m really pleased with where things are going. I hope to wrap up the new and improved version of the first act in a few days (knock on wood) then start work on the second act. I’m also pretty sure I’m going to have to dramatically rework my planned third act.

This is where it helps that this novel is part of a series — I know what I need in the other novels’ plots and, as such, can remove or move things as necessary to make the best story possible.

National Divorce: Dobbs & The Economic Origins Of A Second American Civil War

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

So, as I’ve written before, a person a lot smarter than me makes it clear that the United States will never have a Second American Civil War because The Powers That Be will never let it happen for economic reasons. He says that the First Civil War happened because Slave Power feared they were going to lose money with the movement towards abolition in the United States.

Now that Dobbs has been handed down, there is now an economic wedge between Blue states and Red states. What’s more, Republicans in all their National Socialist corporate state fervor have begun to make a central tenant the idea of punishing “woke” corporations.

But, wait, it gets worse.

As all of this is happening, Steve K. Bannon is actively telling his “spiritual shock troops” to fuck with the smooth administration of elections via an “administrative coup.”

With all that in mind, on a macro level, at least, the conditions and rationale now exists for Blue States to leave the Union and, as such cause a Second American Civil War. Remember, we have a few more years for Republicans to grow ever more radical and political bloodthirsty.

So, in 2024 – 2025 we have the follow scenario — Blue States not only face the economic fear that birth control will be completely outlawed but they will have no way to get any political redress. If that’s not a recipe for severe political violence at a the state level.

Having said all of that, I still believe we’re probably going to slip peacefully into autocracy for no other reason than there just isn’t any Blue leadership with the guts to lead Blue states out of the Union when the 2024 – 2025 Certification Crisis happens. The counter argument could be that by definition the pressure of the macro forces that are tearing the Union apart would force Blue leadership to bubble up to the surface.

But I’m not prepared to assume anything like that will happen. Ultimately, I think we’re going to just slip into white autocratic minority rule. There will be no civil war, no political violence, we will, like the Biblical Jacob, willfully and trivially give up our American birthright — democracy.

Women’s General Strike: ‘Slay The Patriarchy’ or Shut Up

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Our democratic republic finds itself at a crossroads. From now until around January 2025, the United States is probably going to go through an unpreceded era of instability as we lurch towards the existential choice of autocracy or civil war.

French Revolution: March of the Women on Versailles, from Paris, 5th October 1789. Engraving. Paris musee Carnavalet (Photo by Leemage/Corbis via Getty Images)

At the moment, we have the first ping from that dark future in the guise of the Dobbs decision. And, as such, something has to happen in the real world to address this particular clusterfuck. If both men and women want to protect what’s left of their American birthright — that of living in a Western democracy — something’s gotta give in the real world.

Instead of mentally whacking off and daydreaming about solutions that simply will not, can not be effectuated, someone, somewhere needs to risk their life and scared honor by doing something risky in the real world.

And, to me, the obvious risky move would be to organize a Women’s General Strike. Use the existing infrastructural associated with the Women’s March to get all intersectional on the patriarchy’s ass and get a female stock broker in Manhattan to decline to go to work on the same day as a African American cleaning lady in Mississippi.

History has proven that when women collectively get pissed shit changes. And, as such, if we want to save our American democratic birthright, women need to kick Republicans in the crotch — they need to attack them economically. Women could bring the country to its knees within a few days if they simply said — we’re not going to work until you codify Roe and give us an promise that SCOTUS won’t overturn it.

Or, if you REALLY wanted to get radical — you say, “Women aren’t going to work until abortion rights are codified in the Constitution.”

This is really fantastical because women are such a diverse voting group that it’s really hard to get them all on the same page, especially within the context of a nation of 335 million people. But you’ve got to start somewhere.

It’s just annoying in the extreme that you have so many angry, motivated women and there just isn’t the leadership to help organize them to ACTUALLY slay the patriarchy. Sigh.

Is Dobbs A Modern Day Dred Scott?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As I’ve mentioned before, someone far smarter than I is adamant that there’s no chance the United States will have a Second Civil War. He says because, lulz, just because black women in a Red State can’t get a legal abortion doesn’t mean The Powers That Be in Blue States will let a anything as destructive as a civil war happen.

And, yet.

If you assume that the ultimate goal of Republicans is to catch the car AGAIN by outlawing abortion — and even contraception — nation wide, then you’re deal with economics. When wealthy white liberal women in Blue states can’t even use the fucking Pill legally, then, we got ourselves a severe economic problem. Below is the fucking smoking gun on this particular issue.

So, if the general drift of the modern American conservative movement is to force wealthy white liberal women to either leave country so they can lead a normal life or for them to use birth control at risk of being arrested…then…then idea of a national divorce and hence a civil war grows significantly.

Or, put another way, if I had any faith in Blue leadership, then it would obvious we would face a civil war because Blues would be primed to leave the Union for the economic reason of abortion — and birth control in general! — being made illegal.

But, sadly, Blue leadership is too old and too ineffectual for that to be a reality. There probably will be a lot of talk between gritted teeth about Blue States leaving the Union around 2024 – 2025….but ultimately Blues are going to peacefully submit to having a Red knee on their collective political necks.

Now, there is one possibility that might contradict this if you wanted to get all psychohistory about things. And that possibility is that, by definition, people will rise to the occasion in late 2024 – early 2025 as part of a Certification Crisis. It would be this that is simply not something I can predict.

But that is rather dubious. I’m not prepared to put all my chips on the general idea that macro forces would force individuals to do things that, to date, they have no shown any indication that they can do.

Who knows. Only time will tell.

Abortion Rights Were Always A Firebreak

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Blue leadership is completely ineffectual to the point of being meaningless. They’re the gang that can’t shoot straight. So, unless something pretty dramatic happens that I can’t predict — America is going to become an autocracy.

The Dobbs decision is just a ping from that inevitable autocratic future. Abortion rights were always a firebreak for other rights. And now that Roe has been overturned, the path is clear for Republicans to use their hard power to win the culture wars that they lost to the soft power of Democrats.

This is where I start to grow concerned about my own future. I’m a loudmouth crank and I often get drunk and shoot off at the mouth. Whenever I mention the very dark potential future where I might get arrested by ICE (or whomever) at some point in our autocratic future for being a loudmouth crank, my bed rock conservative relatives just roll their eyes and think I’m hysterical.

But let’s take a serious look at my concern on this issue. What I’m really worried about is the one thing that I’ve enjoyed the most for my entire life — the right to speak my mind — would be so abridged by, say, President DeSantis that at some point in the future I would be rounded up like I was in Putin’s Russia or something.

How possible is this, really?

For the time being, no very possible. Even with America’s now inevitable slide into autocracy, the last right to go will probably be the individual right of an American to get drunk in a bar and rant about how President DeSantis can suck their cock.

So, in a sense, my Traditionalist relatives are right — to a point. But, and here in the key thing to remember — form follows function. President DeSantis isn’t going to over night make it effectively illegal for cranks like me to rant about what a dick head he is.

He’ll go after people in the media first, probably threatening to revoke their broadcast license for being too “woke.” That will be the first step. This will be subtle and my Traditionalist relatives probably won’t even notice the purge of late night talk show hosts who will be replaced by people who will no longer talk about politics.

But, again, form follows function.

The latter stages of DeSantis’ consolidation of power will be the weaponization of ICE. Throw in a the calling of a Constitutional Convention and there will come a point when freedom of speech will be so curtailed that, yes, even some rando like me in the middle of nowhere might find myself being visited by ICE, who will ask what this is they hear about me talking bad about the president.

And THIS will be when, of course, my Traditionalist relatives — who I love dearly –will come to me and tell me to shut up for the sake of the family. And I will politely, or maybe not so politely, tell them nope. They had their chance to make common cause against autocracy and they decided they hated the woke cancel culture mob that wanted to make everyone gay too much and hence here we are.

So, yes, logically, I do have a concrete reason to fear that at some point in the future the very thing that my Traditionalist relatives think is ridiculous — being apprehended by ICE — could, in fact, happen. It may be 2035 when it happens, but macro trends would indicate that it will, in fact happen.

I See Republicans Are Going To Lie Their Way Through The Consequences Of Dobbs

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It’s interesting how the two sides are just now beginning to overcome their shock that Roe was actually overturned and are now beginning to figure out their 2022 strategies.

If what I can see on Twitter is any indication, Blues are slow on the uptake, as usual. They throw out a bunch of dumb hot takes the involve things that will never, ever happen. They propose expanding the court or codifying Roe or any number of other things that are nothing more than social media mental masturbation.

I’m not see anyone propose the one thing that might actually address the question at hand — something like a Women’s General Strike. No, everyone wants to be a keyboard warrior and think up things that will never work just because they make them feel better.

Meanwhile, Republicans have a plan: lie.

They tell us this really doesn’t change anything. Lie. They say women still have a right to choose. Lie.

And when they aren’t lying they’re being quite clear that they’re going to try to catch the car AGAIN, by ultimately passing a national abortion ban as soon as they are in control of the legislative and executive branches again.

So, for the time being, it’s advantage Republicans. As always. And given how totally ineffectual Blue leadership is, I have every reason to believe we’re going to slip peacefully into autocratic Trumplandia and Blues won’t even put any fight at all.

Republicans will steal our democratic birthright in a very brazen manner and we just don’t have the gumption to do anything about it.

I Regret Talking — & Writing — So Much About This Novel Project (Oh Well)

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

In an ideal world, I would no have been so conspicuous about this novel project over the last few years. Now, there is this vast documentation of my struggle over the years to write novel(s.)

And, in a truly ideal world, I wouldn’t be such a crank and I would be about 20 years younger. Oh, and if we’re changing things, how about throw in going to a better school and getting better grades in college while we’re at it.

Hell, give me a brain transplant about 16, I think, would fix all the problem I now face.

But, you know, you have to live with the cards you’re dealt. I can’t help who I am. I can’t help that I’ve always been a square peg in a round hole. And I can’t help how old I am.

You just have to believe in yourself. No one else will.

‘National Divorce:’ Can This Union Be Saved? Should It Be?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Now that Roe has been overturned, the argument could be made that the United States should finally cleave itself into two: the United States of Canada and Trumplandia.

But there are a lot of problems with this. On paper, it makes a lot of sense. Red States can, finally make America great again without fears of the woke cancel culture mob stopping the process in their never-ending quest to make everyone gay. Meanwhile, Blue States can remain a Western democracy.

And, yet, that’s just not how it would work out. Even if you were to have massive amounts of domestic political refugee movements there would remain problematic states like Virginia and Texas that would implode if there was any sort of political division of the country.

And that doesn’t even begin to address the issue how do you convince the U.S. Military to peacefully go along with such an idea. The answer is — they wouldn’t. And if it’s Blue States that leave the Union in any form of national divorce, the probability that even the U.S. Military would collapse increases.

On paper, I’m warming up to the idea of a national divorce. But just in the abstract. I hate violence too much to actually want anything like that in practical terms. The only reason why I even bring it up is the other option is autocracy and it is inevitable that I will cross our new autocrat and find myself in some ICE camp.

Such a concrete concern definitely has a way of focusing the mind on other options.

I don’t think I’m being hysterical to think that’s a very real possibility for me in the future. As a loudmouth crank who often gets drunk, I’ve had the luxury of living in a Western democracy my entire life. Now that that is beginning to fade, I’m going to have to come to grips with my possible potential fate in a few years.

We’ll see, I guess.

The Transition From First To Second Draft Of My First Novel Is Going Surprisingly Well

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

So, a few times over the last few days, I’ve been taken aback by how much I’ve managed to improve my first novel as I transition from first to second draft. It’s requiring me to re-write a few more scenes than maybe I would prefer, but that’s the life of an aspiring novelist.

The key issue is things are far more logical and follow the needs of cause and effect than before. People have some sort of motivation for what they do, they don’t just randomly do things for the purposes of the plot.

Now that things are going really well with this first novel, I find myself mulling what I’m going to do with the second novel. At the moment, I have just a concept and that’s it. I thought I could just carve off the second half of the first novel and simply re-work it.

But, lulz, nope.

It just isn’t as practical as I thought it might be. So, I’m going to have to radically change everything. I’ve even had to change when it takes place so I can have some interesting things happening in the back ground to spice things up a little bit.

But the thing I really love about this six novel project is, if I’m successful, you will see why my Lisbeth Salander-like young woman is so fucked. You’ll see in real time the events that lead her to be a badass who will kick your ass if you cross her.

That’s the dream, at least.

I’m not getting any younger, of course. If I don’t hurry up, I’m going to drop dead before I finish it all.