by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
First, because there are so many known unknowns at the moment, I can’t even be sure that there will be a Second American Civil War. There is every reason to believe that the United States will simply give up on democracy, our birthright because Traditionalists are afraid the woke cancel culture mob is going turn everyone gay.
But, let’s say a civil war did break out, probably in late 2024 – early 2025 as part of a Certification Crisis caused by Steve K. Bannon’s “spiritual shock troops” effectuating a “administrative coup.” There is a lower possibility that such a civil war might happen earlier if Trump becomes House Speaker and starts ranting on Truth Social that Red States should leave the Union if his multiple attempts to successfully impeach and convict Biden and Harris don’t work out. Let’s focus on the more likely possibility of it happening later.
If a Second American Civil War started, where, exactly, would it break out? Off the top of my head, it seems as though the first spark of a civil war would occur when it becomes clear that Republicans are going to brazenly steal the 2024 election and big Blue States like California grow restless to the point that they begin to have meetings with other Blue States about potentially seceding.
This would all be happening in late 2024 – early 2025 and it would be pell mell and chaotic. The few months between Election Day 2024 and Certification Day 2025 could be totally bonkers and chaotic to a point that no one has any control and everything moves so fast that we’re all overwhelmed. I suppose there is a possibility that there might even be some sort of Blue “Stop The Steal” Insurrection around Certification Day and that would precipitate Trump or DeSantis invoking the Insurrection Act and that would cause California to pull the trigger on secession.
One thing to remember is, Trump being the incoming POTUS by theft person at the center of all of this will greatly increase the possibility of a “national divorce” breaking out which would, in turn cause a civil war. A President-elect DeSantis would be way too smooth to cause a civil war — even if the Republican theft of the 2024 election is egregious and brazen.
Even though it is extremely difficult to game out this far out, probably the Second American Civil War would start in California when the U.S. Military decided to force the state to stay in the Union. This would be happening in the context of other Blue States breaking away as well. There’s an issue of what happens to the U.S. Military — does it implode or does it make a last gasp attempt to keep the nation together via some sort of coup then installment of military junta.
But let me be clear — barring a massive screw up on the part of Republicans, I just don’t see Reds starting a civil war. They be riled up by the far Right about how they need to start murdering liberals for political reasons all they want, but, lulz, Republicans are ascendant. All Republicans have to do is be patient and they will turn the United States into an autocracy and that will be that — they will get everything they ever want and more.
It’s really wild, in fact, how many obvious MAGA people come to my dark hysterical ranting about the possibility of civil war thinking that they’re going to see how Reds are going to start one.
So, the answer to the question is — if a Second Civil War starts, it will probably be California. But it will happen in the broader context of the country imploding into political violence. States like Virginia and Texas will collapse into coup and counter coup.
But, again, I can’t game out what is going to happen. And, for the time being, I think we’re just going to slip peacefully into autocracy.
