by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
As I’ve mentioned before, someone far smarter than I is adamant that there’s no chance the United States will have a Second Civil War. He says because, lulz, just because black women in a Red State can’t get a legal abortion doesn’t mean The Powers That Be in Blue States will let a anything as destructive as a civil war happen.
And, yet.
If you assume that the ultimate goal of Republicans is to catch the car AGAIN by outlawing abortion — and even contraception — nation wide, then you’re deal with economics. When wealthy white liberal women in Blue states can’t even use the fucking Pill legally, then, we got ourselves a severe economic problem. Below is the fucking smoking gun on this particular issue.
So, if the general drift of the modern American conservative movement is to force wealthy white liberal women to either leave country so they can lead a normal life or for them to use birth control at risk of being arrested…then…then idea of a national divorce and hence a civil war grows significantly.
Or, put another way, if I had any faith in Blue leadership, then it would obvious we would face a civil war because Blues would be primed to leave the Union for the economic reason of abortion — and birth control in general! — being made illegal.
But, sadly, Blue leadership is too old and too ineffectual for that to be a reality. There probably will be a lot of talk between gritted teeth about Blue States leaving the Union around 2024 – 2025….but ultimately Blues are going to peacefully submit to having a Red knee on their collective political necks.
Now, there is one possibility that might contradict this if you wanted to get all psychohistory about things. And that possibility is that, by definition, people will rise to the occasion in late 2024 – early 2025 as part of a Certification Crisis. It would be this that is simply not something I can predict.
But that is rather dubious. I’m not prepared to put all my chips on the general idea that macro forces would force individuals to do things that, to date, they have no shown any indication that they can do.
Who knows. Only time will tell.
